Championship Round Queries for our braintrust

[bleeker]

if it goes to 3 this lines up nice in the three lowest totals range .. not only for the over (32.5/10/16 and one of the other two was an overtime game) but also for the spread (bal) (11/22/31) ..those margins are in chronological order


https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...mary&_qt=games

forgot about adding the other 2 games in the 3.5 -4 sample..ignore this post

[bleeker]

forgot about adding the other 2 games in the 3.5 -4 sample..ignore this post

think this is wrong and I was right in the first place .. it's not that complicated ...I'll adjust it in the morning which I should've waited for to begin with ..sorry

[omar]

The old Sillysports Super Bowl System is one I check every year.

"Examined: Each NFL season from 1990 to 1999 was examined, and to define what constitutes a "blowout" win, I used any margin of victory 20 points or greater.
Suffice it to say that my examination was fruitful. The "Magic Number" of blowout wins appeared to be "3". Between 1990 and 1999, a total of 53 teams had 3 or more "blowout wins" during the regular season. Of these 53, all but 5 teams qualifed for the playoffs!! If a team hit that magic number during the regular season, the chances were that you'd be seeing it in the post season!
The number of teams qualifying with 3 or more blowout wins varied from season to season. it had been as high as 9 of 12 teams, and as low as 3 out of 12 playoff teams.
The eventual Super Bowl winner ALWAYS had at least 3 blowout wins!! Sadly, the team with the most number of blowout wins was NOT always the eventual Super Bowl Winner. And the Super Bowl winner had covered 7 of the last 10 Super Bowls, with one pointspread loss and two pushes."

Link



The Ravens and 49ers are the Super Bowl teams.

[Riderx]

Weird but true... Been workin' on a bunch of stuff for these games & took a break. Of course, my mind is going at a million mph & I wanted to look at a different approach, just looking at 'combined o/u margins'.

team off a prev bye in the playoffs
not a fav of -7 or more
combined ou margins between +13 & -13
opp off a road game
opp prev total went Over
opp prev total of 32+

What's wild, even with such a wide range, is there is only 1 prev game since '01 & that would include SB's, too

KillerSports.com

look at that sh*t

'03...Eagles -4'...lost s/u 3-14...losing s/u by -11 & ats by -15.5
&
going way-y-y Under by -20 w/a total of 37

the Panthers 2 prev games were weirdly similar to the Chiefs last 2 games...both blowouts at home in the WC, both scored less than 30...both scored high-20's in close games last game on the road

surface was grass & outside, just like M&T Bank stadium

Eagles scoring D'...17.9ppg
&
Panthers scoring D'...19.0ppg

Almost exact what Ravens & Chiefs scoring D's are

As it stands right now, I'm liking Chiefs+3' & Under a lot more than I did earlier
&
I can't do the Over

[Riderx]

The old Sillysports Super Bowl System is one I check every year.

"Examined: Each NFL season from 1990 to 1999 was examined, and to define what constitutes a "blowout" win, I used any margin of victory 20 points or greater.
Suffice it to say that my examination was fruitful. The "Magic Number" of blowout wins appeared to be "3". Between 1990 and 1999, a total of 53 teams had 3 or more "blowout wins" during the regular season. Of these 53, all but 5 teams qualifed for the playoffs!! If a team hit that magic number during the regular season, the chances were that you'd be seeing it in the post season!
The number of teams qualifying with 3 or more blowout wins varied from season to season. it had been as high as 9 of 12 teams, and as low as 3 out of 12 playoff teams.
The eventual Super Bowl winner ALWAYS had at least 3 blowout wins!! Sadly, the team with the most number of blowout wins was NOT always the eventual Super Bowl Winner. And the Super Bowl winner had covered 7 of the last 10 Super Bowls, with one pointspread loss and two pushes."

Link



The Ravens and 49ers are the Super Bowl teams.

Great work, Omar...

[golden contender]

Here is a nice one for the total in NFC Championship game

playoffs = 1 and AD and p:HFW and op:HFW and WP>60 and line>+6 and total<54 and op:PY<350

Road dogs of 6 or more with a .600 or better win percentage both teams off a home favored win , the total is less than 54 and the home team, SF in this case had les than 350 yards passing, Simple but 11 straight overs.

[bleeker]

if it goes to 3 this lines up nice in the three lowest totals range .. not only for the over (32.5/10/16 and one of the other two was an overtime game) but also for the spread (bal) (11/22/31) ..those margins are in chronological order


https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...mary&_qt=games

ignore posts 16 and 17 (was tired) ..above is correct..if line is around 3 then "over" and "bal" make sense with this system..you be the judge

[Riderx]

In the NFC only & since the '02 re-align, any fav of more than -1 w/a total more than 41 off a s/u win as a home fav of more than -7 in which they scored less than 32pts & lost ats by more than -2pts, now vs a non-div conf opp:

KillerSports.com

5-0 s/u...by 22.40ppg
&
5-0 ats...by 15.80ppg
&
5-0 o/u...by 12.40ppg

but wait, it gets even better...if they are favs of less than -10.5:

KillerSports.com

4-0 s/u...by 24.5ppg
&
4-0 ats...by 18.88ppg
&
4-0 o/u...by 14.5ppg

avg final score: 41.5 - 17.0

look at all those rushing yards per games: 280.8 vs 72.0

2 best bets:

49'ers-7
&
Over 51'

[bleeker]

cc
no wildcard
previous regular season wins 10-11
total <=54

11-0-1 o/u (7.54)


can't be any simpler


mid 40's total exactly where you want to be in this sample

42-48

5-0 o/u (14.7)

smallest 9


https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++




(bal)/kc over 44.5

[Riderx]

cc
no wildcard
previous regular season wins 10-11
total <=54

11-0-1 o/u (7.54)

can't be any simpler

mid 40's total exactly where you want to be in this sample

42-48

5-0 o/u (14.7)

smallest 9

https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

(bal)/kc over 44.5

cr*p...I've got some serious #'s on the under

[Riderx]

simple equation for all you math geeks:

KillerSports.com

SF-7'
&
Over 51'

[bleeker]

looking like sf and the over in bal/kc for me..make it official tomorrow

[rolltide]

PLAY ON the playoff team with the far superior yards per pass attempt if not a DD fav (SF, BAL)

note:SF was on the wrong side of this query 3 times and got the only cover by 0.5 point (lost by 3 when getting 3.5)

12-0-0 (11.67, 100.0%) 11-1-0 (6.83, 91.7%) avg line: -4.8 +6: 12-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 4-8-0 (33.3%) +10: 12-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 4-8-0 (33.3%) 8-3-1 (3.08, 72.7%) avg total: 45.4 +6: 3-9-0 (25.0%) -6: 10-2-0 (83.3%) +10: 1-11-0 (8.3%) -10: 12-0-0 (100.0%) 31.8 106.6 34.9 270.8 22.7 0.7 5.2 9.9 7.1 7.8 30.1 21.8 79.9 33.3 211.7 19.5 2.0 1.7 7.8 4.2 4.8 18.4 Jan 28, 2024 view Sunday 21 2023 Fortyniners Lions home -7.5 51.5 Jan 28, 2024 view Sunday 21 2023 Ravens Chiefs home -4.0 44.5

and if a team has both the worse YPPA offense and defense? (play on SF, BAL)

0-10-0 (-11.70, 0.0%) 0-10-0 (-6.65, 0.0%) avg line: 5.0 +6: 7-3-0 (70.0%) -6: 0-10-0 (0.0%) +10: 7-3-0 (70.0%) -10: 0-10-0 (0.0%) 7-2-1 (4.05, 77.8%) avg total: 45.6 +6: 3-7-0 (30.0%) -6: 9-1-0 (90.0%) +10: 1-9-0 (10.0%) -10: 10-0-0 (100.0%) 22.9 87.3 33.5 213.2 20.3 1.9 2.0 7.7 4.3 5.0 19.0 30.2 101.9 34.6 272.1 22.1 0.7 5.3 10.2 7.8 7.4 30.7 Jan 28, 2024 view Sunday 21 2023 Lions Fortyniners away 7.5 51.5 Jan 28, 2024 view Sunday 21 2023 Chiefs Ravens away 4.0 44.5

now factor in the run game and playing at home...(SF, BAL)

14-0-0 (12.00, 100.0%) 14-0-0 (7.86, 100.0%) avg line: -4.1 +6: 14-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 6-7-1 (46.2%) +10: 14-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 6-8-0 (42.9%) 10-3-1 (4.07, 76.9%) avg total: 46.1 +6: 5-9-0 (35.7%) -6: 13-1-0 (92.9%) +10: 1-12-1 (7.7%) -10: 14-0-0 (100.0%) 31.4 109.8 34.1 268.1 22.4 0.8 5.5 11.3 7.2 7.1 31.1 21.6 88.1 36.6 221.9 21.2 2.3 2.3 6.4 4.7 5.6 19.1 Jan 28, 2024 view Sunday 21 2023 Fortyniners Lions home -7.5 51.5 Jan 28, 2024 view Sunday 21 2023 Ravens Chiefs home -4.0 44.5

[bleeker]

cc
had bye
home
previous opp 0 pts 2nd half
total < 54


6-0 o/u (8.00)


2 extreme totals are the lowest margins..this < 1 pt from the avg


https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++


bal/kc over 44.5

[rolltide]

this one lost with PHI/SF last year but been very good for a long time. BAL over

16-12-0 (2.43, 57.1%) 14-14-0 (0.50, 50.0%) avg line: -1.9 +6: 18-10-0 (64.3%) -6: 10-17-1 (37.0%) +10: 20-8-0 (71.4%) -10: 8-20-0 (28.6%) 25-2-1 (7.27, 92.6%) avg total: 44.7 +6: 11-15-2 (42.3%) -6: 27-1-0 (96.4%) +10: 6-18-4 (25.0%) -10: 28-0-0 (100.0%) 27.8 109.6 34.7 243.2 21.5 1.9 6.7 6.9 6.5 7.0 27.2 27.4 111.9 34.6 223.5 20.3 2.3 4.2 8.1 5.4 6.5 24.8 Jan 28, 2024 view Sunday 21 2023 Ravens Chiefs home -4.0 44.5