DIV Weekend queries for our braintrust

[Riderx]

Didn’t GB give up 30 points to Carolina on the road a few weeks ago (Christmas Eve)?? How are they going to keep SF below 35?

They're not. GB isn't just taking one step up in class, they're taking a whole flight of stairs up. The Cowboys are a f*cked-up team, the 49'ers aren't.

The one game I'm struggling with trying to get a handle on is Bucs/Lions right now, but I'll get it.

Oh & btw, if anyone's looking for a live dog to win s/u, look no further than the Texans...

Yep

[Riderx]

I was starting to like all 4 Unders but I defer the totals to Glenn. He's a h*lluva' lot better than I am on those.

but

I just pulled this up. Dallas ran a total of 85 plays (rushes+passes) & Green Bay less than 60.

If this makes any sense. Any non-div dog of more than +7 off a s/u win as a dog in which their opponent ran more than 80 plays (rushes+passes), which was more than 20 plays more than team:

KillerSports.com

0-5 s/u
&
0-4-1 ats
&
5-0 o/u

Man, those last 3 final score margins make me Wentz...-11, -10 & -11...Geeez...and 2 of those 3 were in the playoffs...both final scores of 24-35 each

but

that 5-0 o/u has me liking the Over 50'

[bleeker]

I was starting to like all 4 Unders but I defer the totals to Glenn. He's a h*lluva' lot better than I am on those.

but

I just pulled this up. Dallas ran a total of 85 plays (rushes+passes) & Green Bay less than 60.

If this makes any sense. Any non-div dog of more than +7 off a s/u win as a dog in which their opponent ran more than 80 plays (rushes+passes), which was more than 20 plays more than team:

KillerSports.com

0-5 s/u
&
0-4-1 ats
&
5-0 o/u

Man, those last 3 final score margins make me Wentz...-11, -10 & -11...Geeez...and 2 of those 3 were in the playoffs...both final scores of 24-35 each

but

that 5-0 o/u has me liking the Over 50'

closest line/total match was the 39.5 cover..i'm still on gb but amazing margins against them here

https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

[Riderx]

closest line/total match was the 39.5 cover..i'm still on gb but amazing margins against them here

https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

That is the proverbial "nail-in-the-coffin"

avg final score: 3.3 - 44.3

avg margin: -41.0

avg ats margin: -30.83

avg t/o's: 4.0 - 1.7

avg total yards: 180.7 - 535.4

money-maker in so many different ways

That my friend Glenn is a game of the year play. Nothing left to say.

(Which brings me back to post#13, which I will post later, multiple systems but all Unders)

[bleeker]

That is the proverbial "nail-in-the-coffin"

avg final score: 3.3 - 44.3

avg margin: -41.0

avg ats margin: -30.83

avg t/o's: 4.0 - 1.7

avg total yards: 180.7 - 535.4

money-maker in so many different ways

That my friend Glenn is a game of the year play. Nothing left to say.

(Which brings me back to post#13, which I will post later, multiple systems but all Unders)

still a little tied to playoff systems for playoff games and as you know I've been round specific..did want to share that one with you though as the numbers are outstanding (understand base of the system is yours) .. one of the things I like about this thread is putting up early thoughts and not having to commit right away .. definitely going to think this one over a little more..will post a final pick (even if it's passing the game) before 3pm tomorrow

[Riderx]

This one's kinda' weird, but I like weird...

Non-div road dogs in the playoffs, team has at least 12 Unders on the season:

tS(U)>11
AD
NDIV
playoffs=1

0-4 s/u
&
0-4 ats
&
3-1 o/u

against TB+6' & KC+2'

Dogs of +3 or more:

KillerSports.com

0-3 s/u...by -19.33ppg
&
0-3 ats...by -13.17ppg
&
3-0 o/u

avg final score: 16.0 35.3...& all 3 final scores look the same...similar lines & totals

avg t/o's: 2.0 vs 0.0

against TB+

Detroit-6'
&
Over 48'

hmm...

[Riderx]

Playoff road dogs between +6.5 & +12.5 vs opponent off a bye, team scored 0 td's in previous match-up:

playoffs=1
P:TD=0
AD
o:rest>10
6.5<line<12.5

KillerSports.com

2-2 s/u
&
4-0 ats
&
3-1 o/u

*****the 2 s/u losses were by -3pts each...in OT*****

Texans+9'
&
Texans m/l

of note: if the Ravens win s/u, they win the CC game & go to SB...if the Texans win s/u, they lose the CC game

[bleeker]

still a little tied to playoff systems for playoff games and as you know I've been round specific..did want to share that one with you though as the numbers are outstanding (understand base of the system is yours) .. one of the things I like about this thread is putting up early thoughts and not having to commit right away .. definitely going to think this one over a little more..will post a final pick (even if it's passing the game) before 3pm tomorrow

[rolltide]

34-9 (2-0) = HOU, TB
13-2 (1-1) = BAL, SF
39-9 (2-1) = GB TB KC
39-12 (1-0) = TB KC
63-24 (1-1) = BUF
67-28 (2-2) = SF BAL
55-16 (1-1) = KC
60-23 (1-1) = KC
84-35 (0-1) = DET HOU
36-8 (0-0) = DET KC
49-19 (2-0) = KC

17-5 & 4-18 ou = KC and under (away total <=46, won last game by 6+) note: dogs perfect 9-0 SUATS
10-50 ou (0-11 ou L11) = BAL u, SF u
24-1 ou = KC/BUF over (week 20+, allowed <288.6 yards last game)

[BT]

Sorry rolltide. You are definitely the 3rd leg of the bleeker/Riderx podcast! Didn’t mean to leave you out. Appreciate your contributions!!

John, we are seemingly very aligned this week on our picks. Hope that’s a good thing!!!

[Riderx]

rolltide, what am I missing on this...17-5 & 4-18 ou = KC and under (away total,=46, won last game by 6+) note: dogs perfect 9-0 SUATS

KillerSports.com

14-24 s/u
&
15-22-1 ats
&
18-19-1 o/u

Thanks in advance

[Riderx]

Sorry rolltide. You are definitely the 3rd leg of the bleeker/Riderx podcast! Didn’t mean to leave you out. Appreciate your contributions!!

John, we are seemingly very aligned this week on our picks. Hope that’s a good thing!!!

Me too, Brian...me too...

[Riderx]

rolltide, no worries...I think I got it...

[bleeker]

divisional
no bye
away
artificial
op: TOM <=0
total 44-59
dog <=7
2010


7-0 o/u (12.43)

det/(tam) 50
buf/(kc) 45.5

over






https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...mary&_qt=games

[bleeker]

both of the above games (side/total) matchup well with some of the bigger over margins