DIV Weekend queries for our braintrust

[bleeker]

playoffs
bye
divisional
6-7 more wins than opp last year
2014


0-4 o/u (-16.25)

all double digits

higher line and lower total than sample which is a negative .. can only be a secondary reason for me


https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++



(bal)/hou under 43.5

[Riderx]

playoffs
bye
divisional
6-7 more wins than opp last year
2014

0-4 o/u (-16.25)

all double digits

higher line and lower total than sample which is a negative .. can only be a secondary reason for me

https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

(bal)/hou under 43.5

That's a very unique way to look at it, Glenn...

...if it's on Saturday & opponent allowed more than 7pts:

KillerSports.com

0-2 s/u
&
0-2 ats
&
0-2 o/u

final scores of: 16-19 & 10-13...both s/u losses by -3pts each

[Riderx]

Okay, maybe the Packers score a TD or two, but the 49'ers are going to lay them to waste. I would advise to look elsewhere for a dog cover other than GB+9'.

Don't forget: the 49'ers have one goal & that is to win the SB & unlike the Cowboys, they will not be caught with their pants down.

I've listened to a lot of sports media already this week & everyone is the praises of Jordan Love & the Packers after destroying Dallas.

H*ll, Colin Cowherd already has a play on GB+9', saying it's completely disrespectful for the Packers to be dogs of +9'.

He's an idiot

And the day, Saturday, means a lot...

For starters, any road dog on Saturday off a WC game in which they allowed more than 25 FD's:

KillerSports.com

0-2 s/u...by -26.0ppg
&
0-2 ats...by -18.75ppg
&
2-0 o/u

in '09, the Cardinals scored 51pts in the WC round then got blasted 14-45 vs the Saints, who went on to win the SB
in '13, the Colts scored 45pts in the WC round then got blasted 22-43 vs the Patriots
in '23, the Packers scored 48pts in the WC round

the avg final score was 18.0 - 44.0

the avg t/o's were 3.0 to 0.0

they allowed an avg of 202.5 rush yards/game

the Packers had 0 t/o's & allowed 0 sacks vs Dallas last week, do not expect that to happen again

just sayin'

[bleeker]

That's a very unique way to look at it, Glenn...

...if it's on Saturday & opponent allowed more than 7pts:

KillerSports.com

0-2 s/u
&
0-2 ats
&
0-2 o/u

final scores of: 16-19 & 10-13...both s/u losses by -3pts each

thanks john

if I'm trying to isolate the 2 biggest margins (17.5/24) like this

p:line

the two smallest margins were when these teams were double digit favorites the week before..this game (p:line=3) fits nicely between the -4 and +6.5..especially factoring the gap between -11 and -4


https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

[bleeker]

thanks john

if I'm trying to isolate the 2 biggest margins (17.5/24) like this

p:line

the two smallest margins were when these teams were double digit favorites the week before..this game (p:line=3) fits nicely between the -4 and +6.5..especially factoring the gap between -11 and -4


https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

pushes this closer to a stand alone system for me

[bleeker]

playoffs
bye
home
grass
p:punts=3
fav >=8
total >=40

0-4 (-17.00)



all double digits

total sits perfectly between the 2 higher totals which are huge margin covers


https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...mary&_qt=games



gb + 9.5

[Riderx]

Be careful, Glenn. That was Carson Wentz vs Sam Darnold in that game. Both the Rams & the 49'ers sat a ton of starters, Rams were already in the playoffs & 49'ers had already sealed the #1-seed.

[Michelangelo]

Love how you guys work these games together.

[BT]

Love how you guys work these games together.

Ditto, Jim!

This is the bleeker/Riderx show. Or the Riderx/bleeker show. You decide who gets top billing - it's equal to me! You guys should have a podcast!!

[bleeker]

Be careful, Glenn. That was Carson Wentz vs Sam Darnold in that game. Both the Rams & the 49'ers sat a ton of starters, Rams were already in the playoffs & 49'ers had already sealed the #1-seed.

I'm not sure if that matters john..only reference to last game in the query is # of punts

[bleeker]

Ditto, Jim!

This is the bleeker/Riderx show. Or the Riderx/bleeker show. You decide who gets top billing - it's equal to me! You guys should have a podcast!!

I admit that I know very little about players,coaches and matchups whereas riderx does..a little feel for what might be a motivational spot is about it .. my contribution is finding systems

[bleeker]

here's one for sf

sf
divisional
off bye
home


3-0 (9.50)

smallest 7.5

don't like how the line/total fits with the others in the sample


https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

[bleeker]

here's one for sf

sf
divisional
off bye
home


3-0 (9.50)

smallest 7.5

don't like how the line/total fits with the others in the sample


https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

not necessary

[Riderx]

LOL...you guys are too d*mn funny. Where the f*ck is Rolltide? "Hey Tide, where you at?"

Glenn, keep doing what you do. You've been finding winners in areas I've never thought of before & it's great to look at something from a different perspective.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Okay, once I get all my sh*t together I'll post a separate thread like last week. But before then if I could scream from the mountaintop "Don't touch the Packers this weekend!", I would. They are about to get hit by a combination bomb cyclone & polar vortex at the same time.

And listen to the sports media with one ear closed. Why? Because they're sponsored by sportsbooks, that's why.

Something I want you to take a look at is this:

KillerSports.com

That's the Packers schedule this season. Look at the top left next to ATS (in bold)...avg line: 1.2

Over all 19 games, GB has been a dog of +1.2 per game

And even over their last 8 games:

KillerSports.com

they've been avg line dog of +0.8 & they were favs in 4 of those 8 games

Now to the meat of the matter, especially since we're talkin' about meat-Packers. Scheduling is important, especially the day - Saturday.

Teams on Saturday, off a playoff game on the road, team has had an avg dog line over their last 8 games:

A(line@team, N=8)>0
p:playoffs=1
day=Saturday
p:A

KillerSports.com

0-3 s/u...by -27.33ppg
&
0-3 ats...by -17.83ppg

Avg final score: 12.7 -40.0
&
they got punked on the ground getting outrushed 232.0 ry/gm vs 86.7 ry/gm

So to all those sports media outlets pimpin' GB+9'..."Kiss my *ss!"

(forgot to add the link above...done)

[BT]

Didn’t GB give up 30 points to Carolina on the road a few weeks ago (Christmas Eve)?? How are they going to keep SF below 35?