Spreads don't matter

[The Old Timer]

Yes it is . No need to even look at the points all week ....just before game time just bet who you think will win game period ! If you can pick game winners then you will win..... week after week... year after year.... after year !! Please don't quit your job on a sample size of 4 weeks or so.

I really don't want to Piss on anybody's parade the % is right around 67% that the spread doesn't come into play and it's all about picking just the winner. Vegas has been having these type of contests for years and it does sound easy. But just picking the winner is hard enough. Best of luck and I suggest having fun with it. The best is I love when people tell me they're getting into the contest but going for loser's. I just okay and walk away.

[MacDaddy33]

10-1 so far this week with 3 games pending.

The 2 late Sunday and Monday night games.

[Wellzee]

Game's pick on Dallas was actually the rarest of the rare this season. They covered without winning the game!!!

[IceMan]

Please don't quit your job on a sample size of 4 weeks or so.

I really don't want to Piss on anybody's parade the % is right around 67% that the spread doesn't come into play and it's all about picking just the winner. Vegas has been having these type of contests for years and it does sound easy. But just picking the winner is hard enough. Best of luck and I suggest having fun with it. The best is I love when people tell me they're getting into the contest but going for loser's. I just okay and walk away.

This is not a trend or short term... it is a fact and long term. Last year NFL regular season : 256 - 41 - 9 Points factored into only 41 games. I will see if I can dig up prior more years relating to this, unless someone out there has that data ?.

[MacDaddy33]

12-1 going into Monday nights game

[MacDaddy33]

This is not a trend or short term... it is a fact and long term. Last year NFL regular season : 256 - 41 - 9 Points factored into only 41 games. I will see if I can dig up prior more years relating to this, unless someone out there has that data ?.

I agree Iceman.

I've been following for about 5 years and it's been about 87% give or take a %.




Although it is harder than you think to predict who will win SU,but if you can you will do well. (I CAN'T)!!!!!

[MacDaddy33]

13-1 on the week


YTD 64-10-3

[IceMan]

A 13-1 P.D.M. week. After week # 5 now 64 -10 -3 YTD.

[elwood]

that's unbelievable!

[Thomas]

Hi guys good topic and I'd like to throw something out at ya all concerning this subject if you don't mind. I've been frequenting sports forums for over 20 years now and have seen many discussions on this very topic and lets face it it's very interesting. I remember reading a post on this by a poster, name numberfreak. Perhaps some of you have seen his stuff over the years. The guy is mathematically gifted and although I don't have the numbers he used to discuss this he proved, for me anyways, that just picking the su winner to cover the spread is by no means a simple task and doesn't correlate to being a successful gambler. Just some things I remember him pointing out when you're looking at this were all dogs that win su cover the spread and that skews the results (think about that for a second). Like I said he had the numbers to debunk this theory and wish I could find it for you to have a look at and I'll try and do just that when I have some spare time.

The thing I see here is the excitement over how many games played this year where the points didn't matter and it's impressive if you actually bet everyone of the games played and picked all the right su outcomes. I'm not saying that this is useless info by any means I mean it will help you when you're making a decision but will it make you a winning gambler, I doubt it.

I'm kinda unarmed with the above, although I do believe what I said is right, because I don't have the proof to show you. But I can tell you this, out of 66 computer ranking sites such as saragin, massey etc that predict every game every week only 3 sites boast better than 70% and 60% is about the average su and only 20 out of 66 would be above break even ats. These are people who devote a lot of time and effort into predicting games and only 10 of them are above 57% ats which I would consider to be successful bettor and the best being 62%.

I don't believe this information should be ignored but it aint no golden egg

[Spring Harbor]

The reason it's hard to pick the dog winners is that it takes major gonads to bet a -10 point dog, and leave the points behind. The moneyline would be quite profitable in that situation, though.

If you know that 90% of the time, the spreads don't enter into the success of the bet, if you like a dog, the ml is the route to go in the NFL.

[Thomas]

This season dogs are 26-51 su and 37-38-2 ats both losing propositions but you don't have to bet every game so what you say probably has validity SH. I wish I was better at complex math because there's a way to do this but I'm too old to figure it out, lol.

[Wellzee]

That's good info. But as has just been stated, if you like a dog, the ml makes sense. I would take the ml on the Pats today for instance. Don't think I would take ml on the Jags today. Lol.

[Wellzee]

Doh. Sorry. In above thread I meant Saints on ml.

[Thomas]

That's good info. But as has just been stated, if you like a dog, the ml makes sense. I would take the ml on the Pats today for instance. Don't think I would take ml on the Jags today. Lol.

Wow the Jags may surprise, lol killing 4 million suicide players. YIKES