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  • #31
    int(str(date) [4 :]) = 1226 and F and o:wins = 6 and line != -6.5 and total > 44


    day after christmas
    favorite
    opponent has 6 wins
    not a 6.5 favorite *
    total > 44


    * all 3 of those lost (didn't cover)

    0-8 (- 11.75)

    on the low end of the spectrum on both line and total but there was an almost matching (half point) one that covered by a td (2009 ohio/marshall)

    nice balanced covers also


    https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...output=summary



    on nmst +3.5
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

    Comment

    • #32

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      • #33
        Originally posted by Chamblin View Post
        thanks chamblin
        _______________________________________________
        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

        Comment

        • #34
          Originally posted by bleeker View Post
          int(str(date) [4 :]) = 1226 and F and o:wins = 6 and line != -6.5 and total > 44


          day after christmas
          favorite
          opponent has 6 wins
          not a 6.5 favorite *
          total > 44


          * all 3 of those lost (didn't cover)

          0-8 (- 11.75)

          on the low end of the spectrum on both line and total but there was an almost matching (half point) one that covered by a td (2009 ohio/marshall)

          nice balanced covers also


          https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...output=summary



          on nmst +3.5

          what i meant is since there are 3 it's imo significant..2 would be borderline
          _______________________________________________
          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

          Comment

          • #35
            games played on 12/27
            favorite
            not on monday *
            opp wins =6
            opp previous opp didn't have 6 wins **


            * lone day with 1 game

            ** only 2 wins were 6 win teams..if it were 1 wouldn't use as eliminator


            0-12 (-14.62)

            8 double digit losses (always ats)
            12 straight up losses


            https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++



            on buf +4.5
            on utah st +7



            _______________________________________________
            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

            Comment

            • #36
              https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++


              when 12/27 is on tuesday
              favorite
              2012

              (basically last time this date and day combo happened in 2016)


              backs up buf and utah st

              will not touch wis/osu as line's too low


              like how the ecu/ccu numbers match up with line and total of the HUGE UNDERS (-25/-32.5)


              ecu under 65.5 (.66 units)


              rather than only a half unit lower rating going to use
              .66 u and .33 u with the latter being a true action bet
              ..always based on sdql

              sure I'll forget about this at least a few times..give it a shot as I like those two levels vs .50 and .25
              Last edited by bleeker; 12-27-2022, 09:03 AM.
              _______________________________________________
              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

              Comment

              • #37
                had the total wrong on ecu..corrected it
                _______________________________________________
                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                Comment

                • #38
                  kind of interesting that the 2 higher lined much lower total games from that same sample went the other way..over by a bunch
                  _______________________________________________
                  ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                  Comment

                  • #39

                    Comment

                    • #40
                      Originally posted by bleeker View Post
                      games played on 12/27
                      favorite
                      not on monday *
                      opp wins =6
                      opp previous opp didn't have 6 wins **


                      * lone day with 1 game

                      ** only 2 wins were 6 win teams..if it were 1 wouldn't use as eliminator


                      0-12 (-14.62)

                      8 double digit losses (always ats)
                      12 straight up losses


                      https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++



                      on buf +4.5
                      on utah st +7


                      I have two others on Buffalo so took the +6. Line made a big move this morning

                      1227 = int(str(date) [4 :]) and F and (o:wins=9 or o:wins<7) and o:PRSW<11
                      5-12-0 (-4.47, 29.4%)
                      1-16-0 (-11.00, 5.9%) avg line: -6.5 +6: 6-10-1 (37.5%) -6: 0-17-0 (0.0%) +10: 9-8-0 (52.9%) -10: 0-17-0 (0.0%)
                      9-4-0 (9.46, 69.2%) avg total: 54.6 +6: 8-5-0 (61.5%) -6: 10-3-0 (76.9%) +10: 7-6-0 (53.8%) -10: 11-2-0 (84.6%)
                      41.2 202.2 31.6 262.8 18.2 1.1 7.2 6.8 8.4 6.2 26.6
                      35.6 140.2 39.9 296.6 24.3 1.9 9.5 8.4 6.8 9.2 31.1
                      Dec 27, 2022 box Tuesday 18 2022 GSOU BUF neutral -5.5 67.0


                      and if you keep the main parameters and just made them both similar wins
                      1227 = int(str(date) [4 :]) and F and (o:wins = 9 or o:wins < 7) and wins - o:wins < 2

                      3-9-0 (-4.42, 25.0%)
                      0-12-0 (-10.21, 0.0%) avg line: -5.8 +6: 5-6-1 (45.5%) -6: 0-12-0 (0.0%) +10: 7-5-0 (58.3%) -10: 0-12-0 (0.0%)
                      6-2-0 (10.06, 75.0%) avg total: 56.9 +6: 5-3-0 (62.5%) -6: 6-2-0 (75.0%) +10: 4-4-0 (50.0%) -10: 6-2-0 (75.0%)
                      39.6 197.0 34.9 260.1 20.4 1.0 8.5 6.4 11.2 4.1 26.2
                      34.5 138.1 38.6 307.9 22.4 1.5 9.0 8.5 6.2 11.4 30.7
                      Dec 27, 2022 box Tuesday 18 2022 ECAR CSTC neutral -7.0 65.5
                      Dec 27, 2022 box Tuesday 18 2022 MEM UTST neutral -7.0 58.5
                      Dec 27, 2022 box Tuesday 18 2022 GSOU BUF neutral -5.5 67.0
                      Last edited by rolltide; 12-27-2022, 11:09 AM.

                      Comment

                      • #41
                        for tomorrow, favs that don't have 1-2 more wins than opponent who doesn't have 7-8 wins

                        1228 = int(str(date) [4 :]) and F and not 6 < o:wins < 9 and not 0 < wins - o:wins < 3
                        14-0-0 (15.00, 100.0%)
                        14-0-0 (11.57, 100.0%) avg line: -3.4 +6: 14-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 7-7-0 (50.0%) +10: 14-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 6-8-0 (42.9%)
                        6-5-0 (0.82, 54.5%) avg total: 55.5 +6: 3-8-0 (27.3%) -6: 7-4-0 (63.6%) +10: 3-8-0 (27.3%) -10: 8-3-0 (72.7%)
                        39.2 196.3 28.0 222.7 18.3 0.8 6.2 14.8 8.7 6.6 34.9
                        36.5 146.8 34.7 230.0 19.6 1.5 5.5 4.2 5.5 4.7 19.9
                        Dec 28, 2022 box Wednesday 18 2022 ORE NCAR neutral -14.0 75.0
                        Dec 28, 2022 box Wednesday 18 2022 ARK KAN neutral -2.5 68.5
                        Dec 28, 2022 box Wednesday 18 2022 DUKE CFL neutral -3.5 62.5

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                        • #42

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                          • #43
                            int(str(date) [4 :]) =1227 and F and op:H and total <=49


                            12/27
                            favorite
                            opp previous game home
                            total <=49


                            0-5 (17.10)




                            add .. 16>p:line>-11 ( previous line range +15.5/-10.5)


                            0-3 (-24.67) smallest -18


                            you are taking out the 2 smallest margins by eliminating extreme previous lines




                            on okst +4.5
                            _______________________________________________
                            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                            Comment

                            • #44
                              just picks ..not showing systems..aka lazy


                              duke under 62 (.66u)
                              kan +2.5 (.66u)
                              miss under 71.5 (1.0u)
                              _______________________________________________
                              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                              Comment

                              • #45

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