NCAA Hockey 2023-24

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1st probability matrix has dropped. Northeastern gotta win tonight to keep any hope of an at-large alive

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/ra...lityMatrix.php

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conference tournaments Friday

RPI at Quinnipiac = RPI finished last in ECAC, Quinnipiac 1st. H2H Quinnipiac dominant with 6 straight wins with four of them by 3 or more. RPI with crazy win at Clarkson but outshot 36-17 and 22-3 in 3rd period. RPI should get mashed so -2.5 looks ok but i will use -390 regulation win in some doubles

AIC at Holy Cross = AIC got one dman back last week but are one of the most beaten up teams in the nation. Holy Cross the small home dog would be my preference as AIC allowed 72 shots last weekend but will wait to see if they go to a game 3 as AIC doesn't have the bodies to play 3 games in 3 nights

Niagara at RIT = RIT should cruise in this series but they've only won 1 of last 5 meetings in regulation. pass

Union at Dartmouth = Dartmouth at home, 6 straight wins and 8-2 L10 while Union been bad defensively. The beat writer for Union says they will play VERY defensive in game 1 so I'm leaning u6.5

St Lawrence at Colgate = STL was one of the worst away teams in college hockey with only 1 win coming in a shootout. Colgate's had a great year and crushing at home with 8 straight regulation wins so big lean on Colgate reg -140

Harvard at Cornell = huge gap b/w teams but when they play throw the records out and bet the under. u5

Western Mich at Saint Cloud = both teams were in the 8-12 range a month ago and now are outside the pairwise. If Western gets the road sweep they're in the tournament, if SCSU gets the home sweep they are on the bubble. If teams go to a game 3 I think they're both out.

Miami at North Dakota = 1st vs last, will be a 2 game home sweep both multiple goal wins. Miami lost 19 of 24 league games in regulation so doubling -300 regulation with Quinnipiac regulation is good

UMDuluth at Denver = If Denver gets the home sweep they will clinch a 1-seed. Offensively they are the best team in the country, defensively they are very bad thus the 7/7.5 total. won't touch it

Omaha at Col College = this is a beauty with #12 hosting #11 so winner of series will be a lock for the Frozen 16 and loser will probably need to at least push this to 3rd game and only lose in OT. Omaha get more points for a road win but NCAA wants Omaha out of the tourney so they can post North Dakota as 1 seed in Sioux Falls. If Omaha gets in at 4-seed they will probably have to move NDU to Springfield and BU to Sioux Falls. Both have been elite defensively recently so I'd lean u5

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Sat Tourney

AIC/HC = HC strong game 1 win from 1-0 down. just the better team
Niagara/RIT = same here, RIT should be meeting HC for the AQ spot

MinnSt/MichTech = i like Tech as they have a great goalie, even teams
LakeSt/Bemidji = Beavers look unstoppable right now

RPI/Quinn = men vs boys, Quinn will close this out
Union/Dartmouth = the Green are very solid but expect many goals tonight
STL/Colgate = STL with the 2OT winner but still can't win on road in reg. Taking Colgate reg again
COR/HARV = goalies didn't show up last night making just 41 saves combined. taking u5 again

Umass/Prov = elimination game in Pairwise. expect a slow tempo and Prov to gut it out
NE/BU = huge game for Northeastern as they need to run the Hockey East tourney for AQ. 60 min draw is interesting
UNH/Maine = UNH playing great defense but tough to win in Maine
Uconn/BC = one sided home win

Miami/NoDak = UND to close it out
WMU/SCSU = expect WMU to even series
Omaha/CC = Omaha lost 3-0 lead, CC to close them out
UMD/Denver = Denver to close it out in high scoring 6-2 type game

OSU/MSU = very interesting game but MSU should be too good
UM/MIN = Gophers are winning the Big 10

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3 series deciders today

AIC/HC = winner advances to the AQ spot in final vs RIT
WMU/SCSU = WMU probably gets at-large with a win here or even OT loss. SCSU will need to win the tourney
Omaha/CC = winner surely gets at-large bid, loser probably eliminated

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Mass/BC, Maine/BU = 1-2-6-12 in Pairwise but a Umass loss coupled with Cornell and SCSU wins could make the Hockey East a 3-bid league with two 1's and a 2 seed. +225 odds for Umass are pretty juicy in this must-win situation but BC has owned Umass even when they're a lesser team. Similar situation with BU dominating Maine but that game doesn't have much riding on it as BU is a 1seed and Maine a 2seed. BU offense has been insane since the Beanpot scoring 5-6-6-4-6-4 in the past month. Maine righted the ship since their 1-5 stretch winning 4 straight including a 5-0 over UNH last week. Kinda like Maine to run the table in Hockey East

STL/Quinn, Dart/Cornell = STL playing their best hockey of season losing just once in regulation in 8 games but that was a 8-1 loss at Quinnipiac. Cornell might be the best defensive team in NCAAH and probably have to win the tourney to make the Frozen 16. Still not sure how they lost to Union at home but expect a solid 3-0/4-1 win tonight and then a beauty game vs Quinnipiac in the final. I'll take Cornell to get the AQ bid

MT/Beavers = I've got a big ticket on Mich Tech so hoping they pull out the final but the Beavers are unstoppable right now with 11 straight wins and 13 of 14. I love Mich Tech's goalie and he's posted 2 shutouts this month. Tight 1-1/2-2 game with someone winning in OT

MSU/Mich = Sat night. Wouldnt bet against Michigan right now

Omaha/ND, SCSU/Den = NCHC will be a 4-bid league if SCSU and Omaha can win their games but I don't expect that to happen. Nothing is stopping Denver's offense right now and don't think Omaha can challenge NoDak away

[rolltide]

15 slots secured, 3 teams for the last at-large

1. Boston College

2. Boston University

3. Denver

4. North Dakota

5. Michigan State

6. Maine

7. Minnesota

8. Wisconsin

9. Quinnipiac

10. Michigan

11. Omaha

12. Western Michigan

13. AHA automatic bid (RIT or American International)

14. ECAC automatic bid (St. Lawrence, Dartmouth, or Cornell)

15. CCHA automatic bid (Bemidji or Michigan Tech)

16. Colorado College (50%), UMass (36%), or St. Cloud State (14% to win NCHC)

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looks like Omaha will get a 3 seed allowing NCHC to have both NDU and Omaha in Sioux Falls as 1 and 3 seeds. they would not have been allowed to play as 1 vs 4 in first round. NCHC are odd-on favs to have 5 of the final 16

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Cornell/St Lawrence u6.5 -128 fanduel (in 4 hours)
= Cornell are the best defensive team in the country and St Lawrence playing their best defense of the season. STL shut out top 10 Quinnipiac last night with just 22 shots allowed but only registered 25 shots themselves, scoring 3 goals. Cornell got into a rare track meet vs Dartmouth and won 6-3 but that's very rare for them and with an automatic tourney spot on the line i expect a tight, defensive game
- h2h finished 4-6-1-6-3-5-5 in last 7 with just one game of 7+ in last 11 meetings. Cornell #1 in USA with just 1.9 goals against per game with average game of 5.3 goals. St Lawrence score just 2.3 gpg and allow 3 for exactly the same 5.3 goals per game. Both teams in bottom 25 in nation in shots per game (27.4/28.8) and Cornell #1 in country with just 22.3 shots allowed. Since Christmas Cornell have held 17 of 21 opponents to 2 or less goals and allowed 0-1 goal in nearly half their games. St Lawrence have allowed just 6 goals in last 4 games and allowed 0-2 in exactly half their games.

• no clue how they posted a 6 let alone a 6.5 on a Cornell game when they've stayed 6 or less in 24 of 30 games, STL stayed u6.5 in 21 of last 28

playable to u6 -130

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Umass vs Denver - Umass crowd edge but Denver have the best offense in the nation at an insane 4.85 gpg. Both teams allow just under 3 gpg and Umass comes in with a very poor record against top 15 teams most recently losing to BC 3x and Maine 3x and not beaten a tourney team since Oct 14. Denver 11-1 in last 12 games and scored 3+ in all 12.

Cornell vs Maine - Cornell's history is to win 1st game (9-4) and then lose regional final (1-8). Cornell has 10 freshman but Maine, while very experienced, haven't been in the tournament in a long time. Maine staggered in Feb but got it back with 4 wins this month and have wins this year over BC, Quinnipiac, and swept Umass in 3 games. Cornell #1 in NCAA in goals against and shots allowed and have a great record of winning the regional semi before losing in regional final

RIT vs Boston U - RIT offensively are as good as any Hockey East school and both teams are top 6 in goals scored and conceded but RIT just don't have the depth of a top HE school. BU haven't lost to anyone but BC and Northeastern since Thanksgiving weekend. RIT played a terrible schedule so only faced 1 team in the tourney losing 5-2 vs Maine. Their best win was over UNH

Omaha vs Minnesota - most interesting 1st day game for me as Omaha isn't being given a chance but Minnesota in shaky form. Omaha 14-3 since Christmas but these seem crazy odds for Pairwise 7 vs 11, Krach 8 vs 11. Michigan is 1 spot ahead of Omaha and just booted Minn from Big 10 tourney. Minnesota also lost to both NoDak and ColCollege from NCHC this year and tied UMD.

Mich Tech vs BC - i have tix on both teams to win the title but hard to give Mich Tech any chance even if they are playing their best pucks of season. BC 12 straight wins since the Beanpot and were 10-3 vs tourney teams.

Quinnipiac vs Wisconsin - neither team convincing recently, both better defensively than offensively, and both coaches with a lot of tourney experience. Quinn very bad losses this year including Colgate, STL, Clarkson and haven't done well vs tourney teams losing to BC, Maine, BU and Cornell. Wisconsin's issue was Ohio State who beat them 4x in a month but against tourney teams they were 9-6

Mich St vs W Mich - WMU were the worst tourney team down the stretch just 7-11 last 18 and just 3-5 vs tourney teams. Mich State also had an Ohio St problem but other than that they've been great all year but have no tourney experience and are probably a year away from really contending for a title. Coinflip here and in Wisc games

Michigan vs NoDak - best game of the week with two blue bloods. Mich played a lot of tourney teams but were only 6-10. NoDak struggled with Omaha losing 4x but were 7-3 against other tourney teams

[rolltide]

NHL draft picks by team (including top 100 prospects for '24)

BC = 15 (including Skahan)
BU = 15 (including Celebrini and Hutson)
Denver = 14 (including Bulum)
Minnesota = 14 (including Ziemer)
North Dakota = 13 (including Boisvert, Swanson and Emery)
Umass = 13
Wisconsin = 12
Michigan = 11 (including Gridin)
Mich State = 7 (including Levshunov)
Cornell = 6
Western Mich = 6
Omaha = 5
Quinnipiac = 3
Mich Tech = 1
Maine = 1
RIT = 0

Celebrini and Levshunov should go 1-2 in the draft

I prefer Krach over Pairwise and they have BC and BU way ahead of everyone else with BC >.05 above BU and then BU >.04 above Mich State.

Mich Tech .4678 vs BC .8955
RIT .5724 vs BU .8417
WMU .6807 vs Mich State .8062
Cornell .6876 vs Maine .7587
Umass .6986 vs Denver .8046
Mich .7268 vs No Dakota .7908
Omaha .7096 vs Minnesota .7567
Quinnipiac .7401 vs Wisconsin .7624

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dog odds on left followed by Krach differential. You can see that one of these odds just isn't in line at all.

+470 .4277 Mich Tech .4678 vs BC .8955
+375 .2693 RIT .5724 vs BU .8417
+225 .1255 WMU .6807 vs Mich State .8062
+200 .1060 Umass .6986 vs Denver .8046
+110 .0711 Cornell .6876 vs Maine .7587
-105 .0640 Mich .7268 vs No Dakota .7908
+195 .0471 Omaha .7096 vs Minnesota .7567
+100 .0223 Quinnipiac .7401 vs Wisconsin .7624

[rolltide]

dog odds on left followed by Krach differential. You can see that one of these odds just isn't in line at all.

+470 .4277 Mich Tech .4678 vs BC .8955
+375 .2693 RIT .5724 vs BU .8417
+225 .1255 WMU .6807 vs Mich State .8062
+200 .1060 Umass .6986 vs Denver .8046
+110 .0711 Cornell .6876 vs Maine .7587
-105 .0640 Mich .7268 vs No Dakota .7908
+195 .0471 Omaha .7096 vs Minnesota .7567
+100 .0223 Quinnipiac .7401 vs Wisconsin .7624

Friday regionals with Krach's % chance of victory

Denver 66% over Umass
Maine 61% over Cornell
Boston U 83% over RIT
Minnesota 57% over Omaha

what this says is Maine is being undervalued and Minnesota is being overvalued. According to Krach Maine's correct odds should be -151 and Omaha should be +132 and that's before the vig

In the others BU should be -500 (which is close to their number) and Denver right around -200 which is right at their -235 price (approx 70%) when you factor in the book's margin

I think Denver's got too much offense for Umass (5-2), Maine too quick for the large, plodding Cornell (3-1), BU to roll RIT (6-2) and Omaha to upset the Gophers (4-3) even though I'm holding a 13/1 ticket on Minnesota

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"defense wins championships"/

The Frozen Four is the top 4 offenses in NCAAH at 4.7-4.59-4.22-4.15. You have the NCAA leader in goals, the highest goal-scoring freshman in history, and the likely overall #1 in the NHL draft. BC have 4 of the top 5 ppg in college hockey with their entire freshman 1st line plus Cutter Gauthier while Michigan have the greatest power play in 2 decades

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"defense wins championships"/

The Frozen Four is the top 4 offenses in NCAAH at 4.7-4.59-4.22-4.15. You have the NCAA leader in goals, the highest goal-scoring freshman in history, and the likely overall #1 in the NHL draft. BC have 4 of the top 5 ppg in college hockey with their entire freshman 1st line plus Cutter Gauthier while Michigan have the greatest power play in 2 decades

also 12 of the nation's top 15 scorers in the Frozen Four and the 3 best PP in the country (BU 28, BC 30, MICH 35%) plus the 3 best shooting % teams (BU 13, BC 14, DEN 15%)