Super Bowl queries for our braintrust

[Riderx]

Guys...please don't constrain yourself to just using the d'b, as it only goes back to SB's since '01. I found at least one thing that doesn't apply to any of those SB teams & I think I've found one or two more. But I still have a lot more work to do.

Jim, you can attest to this more than anyone here. You have to dig through every team since the SB started, especially from '78 on, when they went to a 16-game regular season schedule.

[Michelangelo]

Guys...please don't constrain yourself to just using the d'b, as it only goes back to SB's since '01. I found at least one thing that doesn't apply to any of those SB teams & I think I've found one or two more. But I still have a lot more work to do.

Jim, you can attest to this more than anyone here. You have to dig through every team since the SB started, especially from '78 on, when they went to a 16-game regular season schedule.

I'm with ya, John. I used to study logs and box scores for hours upon hours. You guys are saving my old tired brain. I do agree that the wider the sample the better. But recency has its place too.

I've been really impressed at how each of you guys choose different variables to study. I'm not kidding when I call you guys our brainrust.

[Riderx]

Jim, I will post everything I have when I get finished, but it's gonna' be awhile.

[Riderx]

Just one thing to consider...

SB teams off a non-overtime win in which they trailed by more than 10pts at the half:

KillerSports.com

'06...the Colts beat the Bears 29-17

The Bears scored 14pts in the 1st-Qtr as Devin Hester ran the opening kickoff back for a TD. The Bears only scored 3 pts in the next 3 qtrs.

The Colts scored 4 times in-a-row & Peyton won his 1st SB & won the game's MVP.

And I haven't even included that along with the stuff I'm working on.

[Riderx]

I don't know why the SB line & total keep disappearing & reappearing in the d'b. It will be there one minute, then gone the next.

Anyways...KC has a -11 turnover margin during the regular season. There is no other SB team in the d'b era (since '01) with a TOM that bad:

KillerSports.com

KC will show up again when the line & total are back.

But that's just one reason not to rely on the d'b alone. And it's another one like the one above that I haven't included on the major stuff I'm still working on.

I'm setting both those aside but may come back to them in the bigger scheme of things.

[rolltide]

Reid after bye

coach = Andy Reid and p:week + 2 = week and o:WP >= 20 and season >= 2000 and total<57

27-6-0 (8.30, 81.8%) 21-12-0 (4.42, 63.6%) avg line: -3.9 +6: 29-4-0 (87.9%) -6: 14-19-0 (42.4%) +10: 30-3-0 (90.9%) -10: 9-23-1 (28.1%) 4-28-1 (-5.55, 12.5%) avg total: 45.7 +6: 2-31-0 (6.1%) -6: 15-18-0 (45.5%) +10: 2-31-0 (6.1%) -10: 21-9-3 (70.0%) 27.3 128.2 35.6 225.4 21.7 1.0 5.8 7.5 3.7 7.1 24.2 25.0 111.2 35.3 203.4 20.6 1.7 3.8 4.8 2.3 4.9 15.9 Feb 11, 2024 view Sunday 23 2023 Chiefs Fortyniners neutral 2.0 47.5

[rolltide]

SF playing west after game in west

team = Fortyniners and game time zone = P and p:game time zone = P and date>20220101

17-0-0 (14.18, 100.0%)
13-4-0 (7.56, 76.5%)	avg line: -6.6	+6: 15-2-0 (88.2%)	-6: 10-7-0 (58.8%)	+10: 17-0-0 (100.0%)

[rolltide]

dogs appearing in b2b super bowl are 0-6 SU....KC in that spot

49ers are 1-37 ATS if trailing by 3+ entering Q4

5-33-0 (-10.89, 13.2%)
1-37-0 (-10.57, 2.6%)

Chiefs are now 3-25 ATS if down 2+

13-17-0 (-3.80, 43.3%)
3-25-2 (-8.65, 10.7%)	avg line: -4.8

[Riderx]

Working within the time constraints of the d'b, since it doesn't cover SB's from '78 to '00, we can dig up some diamonds:

KillerSports.com

0-2 ats...against KC+/-
&
0-2 o/u

SF+/-
&
Under 47'

[bleeker]

super bowl
dogs
p: away
po: score at the half <=10

p: previous
po: previous opponent

6-0 (16.50)

closest side and total to today's was a 31 pt cover
.
also remember ,although not in this sample, there was an almost exact match to today's line and total and it was a 37 pt cover


like that this happened 5x between 2002/2012
then reappeared in 2021 (9 years later) and covered by 25


avg total exactly today's although avg dog significantly higher and this is the lowest of them all by a point (good with the bad)


https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++


kc +2