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Last chance to dance. Dance men, dance.
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Need a SB dance partner. Will it be SF or KC
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K..i'll start it up ..sure they'll be some conflicts if you limit queries to past super bowls which i'll be doing ..database goes back 20 years
want to separate this post so right back with my system_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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playoffs =1 and p:playoffs =1 and rest =13 and p:ou margin >=6.5 and F and line >-7 and o:PRSW >4 and o:PRSW,1
super bowl
favorite <7
p: over >= 6.5
o: PRSW >4
PRSW = previous regular season wins
p: previous game
o: opponent
0-5 o/u (-17.80)
next lowest PRSW is 7 (big gap..why I displayed query this way .. the 4 was a 2.5 pt under ) kc PRSW =14 which is higher than all the others
hit "1" in right hand column to see without PRSW breakdowns
https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
under 47.5
final play(s) will be boldface in separate post
Last edited by bleeker; 01-31-2024, 09:32 AM._______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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if you add 7>=op:M1 >=-7 to above
opp previous margin after 1st quarter between the 7's
0-3 (-21.00)
smallest 18.5
https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
kc +2Last edited by bleeker; 01-31-2024, 12:33 PM._______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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49'ers are wearing their white uni's...
Teams wearing white are 16-3 s/u in the SB since '04Comment
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UNDER afte4r allowing 24+ in a playoff game
playoffs>0 and p:playoffs>0 and po:points>23 and date>20200201
5-8-0 (-2.62, 38.5%) 8-5-0 (-0.69, 61.5%) avg line: 1.9 +6: 9-4-0 (69.2%) -6: 5-8-0 (38.5%) +10: 9-3-1 (75.0%) -10: 3-10-0 (23.1%) 0-13-0 (-10.88, 0.0%) avg total: 51.0 +6: 0-13-0 (0.0%) -6: 6-7-0 (46.2%) +10: 0-13-0 (0.0%) -10: 7-6-0 (53.8%) 23.7 104.9 37.9 222.7 24.2 1.2 3.8 5.5 5.3 4.2 18.8 26.6 127.0 35.8 233.5 22.2 1.0 5.5 7.5 4.9 3.3 21.4 Feb 11, 2024 view Sunday 23 2023 Fortyniners Chiefs neutral -2.0 47.5 Comment
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SB dogs at a neutral site w/a bye vs opp with at least 1 loss, team lost their last game vs non-conf opp:
KillerSports.com
0-8 s/u...against the Chiefs
Funny thing is...7 of the 8 were NFC teams & 4 of those 7 were vs the Patriots
If they were a WildCard team:
KillerSports.com
29-32...s/u by -3
23-27...s/u by -4
20-23...s/u by -3
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teams that have covered 3 straight playoff games are 9-0 ATS in the Super Bowl
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That is the stat that scares me.
Kc hot
Sf not
Sf should win handily but will they?
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playoffs = 1 and not conference = o:conference and F and ppp:playoffs = 0 and 1 >= p:turnover margin >= -1 and op:margin at the half < 27
super bowl
favorite
had the bye
p: turnover margin between 1/-1
op: weren't losing by > 26 at the half
p: previous game
op : opponent's previous gm
0-7 (-20.93)
smallest 7
best match side and total (almost exact) the largest margin in sample
https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
kc +2
probably make this official tomorrowLast edited by bleeker; 02-01-2024, 03:54 PM._______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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added the 2nd comment which is important about 5 mins after original post_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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playoffs = 1 and not conference =o:conference and F and p:ats margin <8 and po:penalties,1 and po:penalties <8
super bowl
favorite
p: didn't cover by > 7
po: penalties <8
0-10 (-12.30)
detroit had 2 penalties (good subset)
https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
kc +2_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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Like this one, rt.Originally posted by rolltide View Postteams that have covered 3 straight playoff games are 9-0 ATS in the Super Bowl
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https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++Originally posted by Michelangelo View Post
and don't even have needed to cover all 3 games ... could just win all 3, be in super bowl, and have covered the previous week = 10-0 ATS
ppp:playoffs=1 and p:ATSW7-3-0 (5.10, 70.0%) 10-0-0 (7.80, 100.0%) avg line: 2.7 +6: 10-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 5-5-0 (50.0%) +10: 10-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 2-8-0 (20.0%) 4-6-0 (-1.10, 40.0%) avg total: 47.2 +6: 3-7-0 (30.0%) -6: 6-4-0 (60.0%) +10: 3-7-0 (30.0%) -10: 6-3-1 (66.7%) 25.8 106.9 34.5 257.8 22.1 1.0 4.9 7.6 4.6 8.5 25.6 23.1 101.9 40.2 255.6 24.8 1.9 3.3 6.7 5.0 5.5 20.5 Feb 11, 2024 view Sunday 23 2023 Chiefs Fortyniners neutral 2.0 47.5 Comment
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