Wild card Weekend queries for our braintrust

[vern]

One more note.

G bay has the lowest probability of making round 2

G bay has the longest odds of winning sb

Doesn't mean anything other than. Vegas believes this is the most likely loser on the board, even moreso than games with a bigger spread... at least that's how I read it.

[Riderx]

One more note.

G bay has the lowest probability of making round 2

G bay has the longest odds of winning sb

Doesn't mean anything other than. Vegas believes this is the most likely loser on the board, even moreso than games with a bigger spread... at least that's how I read it.

yeah...I had to step back, sleep on it & take a fresh look at all the games this weekend. There are a couple of other d*mn good cappers besides yourself that I respect who also have the Cowboys covering. Also, as I look ahead, this is a game that just may land Dallas in the Taxi system again next week, for the 3rd time this year.

[Michelangelo]

Here ya' go, Jim.

KillerSports.com

3-7 s/u
&
5-3-2 ats

Thanks, John. Don't see much there to have any confidence in that angle. That's why I like checking these things when I find them somewhere. In the old days I'd go through game logs from the Gold Sheet 'till I figutred it out myself. Can't tell you how I appreciate what you guys do and how many hours you save me.

[BT]

One more note.

G bay has the lowest probability of making round 2

G bay has the longest odds of winning sb

Doesn't mean anything other than. Vegas believes this is the most likely loser on the board, even moreso than games with a bigger spread... at least that's how I read it.

True vern. But these stats are SU. ATS is the tricky part! I’m leaning GB + but totally get that Dallas could put a beat down on them.

[vern]

question - dallas has won 16 in a row at home

we know they were 6-2 ats this year

what about last year?

if similar would that not suggest a dallas play? cant imagine more apple to apple data

[vern]

lloks lke 5-3 ats to me dallas @ home 2022

so call it 11-5 cover ats and similar to the over?


basicaly 2 of 3 games ib cowboys big at home


what am i missing

[rolltide]

OPPOSE 2.5-10.5 favs that allow 369+ yards vs a much better defensive opponent (37-8 = on PIT, GB, LAR)
- note for above....if opponent 1st playoff game = 16-1 ATS

OPPOSE teams not on 2+ losing streak that beat opponent by 9+ h2h and aren't DD fav or small dog (32-8 = on HOU)
- note these teams are also 0-8 away but not been active since 2016 season

[rolltide]

1st playoff game and playing b2b road games, won previous game by 5+ and opponent (home team) did not lose their last game by 7+ = 6 straight road covers and 12/13 unders (BUF/PIT game)

A and p:A and season>2003 and playoffs = 1 and p:margin>4 and p:playoffs = 0 and op:margin>-7

9-4-0 (1.69, 69.2%)
9-4-0 (4.73, 69.2%)	avg line: 3.0	+6: 12-1-0 (92.3%)	-6: 6-7-0 (46.2%)	+10: 12-1-0 (92.3%)	-10: 3-10-0 (23.1%)
1-12-0 (-12.81, 7.7%)

[nba_trends]

Ah yes ! The Gold sheet …. I remember Thomas use to post those and we can download them to read for entertainment… we can get the same thing on statsfox now but as you grow older you adjust and take the easy route… but I’m going to give away my patten rules … it is so simple you would laugh … this only apply to must win or do or die game … ok the rule is …” must win can win then they won’t cover the spread ! Must win and can win plus points die for sure . This is not 100 percent but I believe in it … if you find it to be false … then the next game that this rule applies… double up and if you lose … you are welcome to bitch and complain… I run that department . Good luck guys … what was the saying in John wick movie… we have rules and consequences… without them I would still be flipping coins . Later guys $$$$

[rolltide]

Scores of the 11 coldest games in history...MIA/KC will definitely qualify as a top 10, probably a top 5

21-17
27-7
15-14
10-9
23-20 OT
29-23
14-12
30-13
21-17
14-10
17-14

Will be brutally cold in KC tonight and the total is 43.4/44 .... the 11 coldest games in NFL history only once have they combined for more than 43 points. The most recent was the 10-9 game where Minnesota led 9-0 (3 FG) after 3 quarters and Seattle scored 10 in the 4th to win. That game had 400 combined total yards and just 254 pass yards which is basically Mahomes' over/under tonight. QB's were Russell Wilson vs Teddy Bridgewater who had a combined 30 completions on 50 attempts and neither reached 150 pass yards.

[bleeker]

cle/(hou) over 44.5 (post 25)
(kc)/mia under 43.5 (post 43)

[rolltide]

Bills haven't covered a 9+ fav spread since beating Pittsburgh in Oct 2022, winning by an avg of 4ppg

8-1-0 (4.44, 88.9%) 0-9-0 (-7.44, 0.0%) avg line: -11.9 +6: 3-6-0 (33.3%) -6: 0-9-0 (0.0%) +10: 5-3-1 (62.5%) -10: 0-9-0 (0.0%) 3-6-0 (-1.83, 33.3%) avg total: 45.2 +6: 2-7-0 (22.2%) -6: 6-3-0 (66.7%) +10: 1-8-0 (11.1%) -10: 7-2-0 (77.8%) 27.8 126.1 32.0 216.3 19.3 1.7 5.7 9.1 5.6 3.6 23.9 26.3 111.9 35.7 194.8 21.6 1.3 2.6 7.2 3.0 6.7 19.4 Jan 14, 2024 view Sunday 19 2023 Bills Steelers home -9.5 33.0

[bleeker]

p:playoffs = 0 and playoffs = 1 and H and wins - o:wins = 0 and surface = grass and season >= 2014


playoffs
p: regular season
home
grass
both teams same wins
2014


0-3 o/u (-16.33)

smallest 10.5

2014 (37/54)
2016 (34/44.5)**
2021 (33/54.5)

(pts/tot)

** kc home ..similar (-2/44.5)

don't like that 2 of them are much higher totals but fact that lowest one is kc and similiar to today's makes up for it somewhat




https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...mary&_qt=games



(kc)/mia under 43.5

not final but probably will play

[bleeker]

p:playoffs = 0 and playoffs = 1 and H and wins - o:wins = 0 and surface = grass and season >= 2014


playoffs
p: regular season
home
grass
both teams same wins
2014


0-3 o/u (-16.33)

smallest 10.5

2014 (37/54)
2016 (34/44.5)**
2021 (33/54.5)

(pts/tot)

** kc home ..similar (-2/44.5)

don't like that 2 of them are much higher totals but fact that lowest one is kc and similiar to today's makes up for it somewhat




https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...mary&_qt=games



(kc)/mia under 43.5

not final but probably will play

the lone non-bye week was the biggest under

[Riderx]

Gonna' start a separate thread for all my playoff plays, just to have everything in one place...

For today (Saturday), my plays are:

Houston+2'
Houston m/l
Clev/Hou Over 44'...BB
Miami+4'
Miami m/l
Mia/KC Under 44'