Wild card Weekend queries for our braintrust

[Michelangelo]

Don't stop now. Keep at it, guys.

[Riderx]

Let's get this started. Dallas was a -13'pt road fav last week. Any playoff team lined from +3 to -11 w/o a bye, off the last regular season game in which they were a road fav of -8 or more:

KillerSports.com

0-6 o/u

Under 50' GB/Dal

of note: NFC teams on Sunday are 0-2 s/u & ats...take a good hard look at GB+7'

[rolltide]

UNDER won 10+ games last year, line b/w +/-11.5 and did not just have 50+ more penalty yards than rushing yards (1-18 ou = KC u, BUF u, DAL u, PHI u)

UNDER both 1st playoff game and did not meet in regular season, total 39+ and teams similar records (2-25 ou = DAL u, DET u)

OPPOSE off dog win in last reg season game, 8+ win team (16-2 = on MIA, DET)

PLAY ON away dog not big negative margin team on season and did not fail to cover by 7+ last week (16-1 = on MIA, PIT, GB, LAR)

PLAY ON 7+ rested team vs opponent with <10 wins (9-0 = on PHI)

OPPOSE 6-day rested team vs opp with <10 wins and were not 3.5+ dogs last week (11-1 = on GB)

OPPOSE grass nondiv with low avg margin win vs opp that doesn't need to pass for a lot of 1st downs and won 6+ games last year (21-0 = on PHI)


(this is my first pass through the playoffs systems i have...will share more later this week)

[Riderx]

UNDER won 10+ games last year, line b/w +/-11.5 and did not just have 50+ more penalty yards than rushing yards (1-18 ou = KC u, BUF u, DAL u, PHI u)

UNDER both 1st playoff game and did not meet in regular season, total 39+ and teams similar records (2-25 ou = DAL u, DET u)

OPPOSE off dog win in last reg season game, 8+ win team (16-2 = on MIA, DET)

PLAY ON away dog not big negative margin team on season and did not fail to cover by 7+ last week (16-1 = on MIA, PIT, GB, LAR)

PLAY ON 7+ rested team vs opponent with <10 wins (9-0 = on PHI)

OPPOSE 6-day rested team vs opp with <10 wins and were not 3.5+ dogs last week (11-1 = on GB)

OPPOSE grass nondiv with low avg margin win vs opp that doesn't need to pass for a lot of 1st downs and won 6+ games last year (21-0 = on PHI)


(this is my first pass through the playoffs systems i have...will share more later this week)

dang, rolltide...roll, tide, roll...

[bleeker]

playoffs = 1 and p:playoffs = 0 and H and line >= -15 and -2 >= p:turnover margin >= -3 and op:turnover margin <= 2 and p:division = po:division and 10 <= o:wins <= 12 and wins <= 14 and o:PRSW >= 3 and PRSW <= 12


playoffs
p: regular season
home
fav <=15 or dog
p: division gm
p: 2 or 3 less TO than opp
op: not >= 3 more TO than opp
o: 10-12 wins
t: wins <=14
o: PRSW >=3
t: PRSW <=12


0-23 o/u (-7.35)


https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++


det under 51.5


final boldface

[BT]

Guys, do you keep YTD records for your final picks? Just curious. Thanks for all the effort this season. Hope the playoffs are a success for us all!!

Good stuff above, rt!!

[Riderx]

Brian, I don't have that. I have stuff scattered all over the place & couldn't re-construct it even if I tried. I can honestly say I was below .500 thru Thanksgiving but did really well the last 6 weeks. Over at covers I believe I'm like 5th from the bottom...out of 5000 people...LOL. Played way too many plays, I think over 200. And played many early in the week but you can't change them later. Strayed totally away from my strategy & have to wait until next season to do it right.

[Riderx]

rolltide, looking at #6 of your posting, if the team is at home they're only 4-5 s/u & 0-9 ats:

KillerSports.com

all 9 were on Sunday, too...as is GB/Dal...wow

[bleeker]

Guys, do you keep YTD records for your final picks? Just curious. Thanks for all the effort this season. Hope the playoffs are a success for us all!!

Good stuff above, rt!!

I don't brian

[bleeker]

great stuff rt and like yours also john !

[bleeker]

rolltide, looking at #6 of your posting, if the team is at home they're only 4-5 s/u & 0-9 ats:

KillerSports.com

all 9 were on Sunday, too...as is GB/Dal...wow

added total minimum and an opo * penalty parameter

* opo = opp previous opponent


0-3 (-22.17)

all over 20 pt covers and 2005 min/gb very close to today's side and total

gb opp (chi) had only 1 penalty last week

https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

gb +7.5

[rolltide]

playoffs = 1 and p:playoffs = 0 and H and line >= -15 and -2 >= p:turnover margin >= -3 and op:turnover margin <= 2 and p:division = po:division and 10 <= o:wins <= 12 and wins <= 14 and o:PRSW >= 3 and PRSW <= 12

i loosened the parameters just a bit and another game popped up

playoffs = 1 and p:playoffs = 0 and H and line>-16 and -4<p:TOM<-1 and op:TOM!=3 and p:DIV and o:wins<14 and wins<15 and o:PRSW>2 and PRSW<13

16-12-0 (1.57, 57.1%) 11-17-0 (-2.25, 39.3%) avg line: -3.8 +6: 19-9-0 (67.9%) -6: 8-20-0 (28.6%) +10: 24-4-0 (85.7%) -10: 4-24-0 (14.3%) 1-27-0 (-6.27, 3.6%) avg total: 44.4 +6: 1-27-0 (3.6%) -6: 14-11-3 (56.0%) +10: 1-27-0 (3.6%) -10: 21-5-2 (80.8%) 26.5 109.6 33.1 197.4 20.6 1.6 4.6 5.1 3.4 6.4 19.9 27.5 118.1 33.4 213.4 20.0 1.5 4.5 5.0 3.4 5.3 18.3 Jan 14, 2024 view Sunday 19 2023 Lions Rams home -3.0 51.5 Jan 14, 2024 view Sunday 19 2023 Cowboys Packers home -7.5 50.5

[Riderx]

added total minimum and an opo * penalty parameter

* opo = opp previous opponent

0-3 (-22.17)

all over 20 pt covers and 2005 min/gb very close to today's side and total

gb opp (chi) had only 1 penalty last week

https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

gb +7.5

Good lord, if the Cowboys lose s/u...wow...talk about a sh*tstorm in Dallas

[Riderx]

We also have a really weird situation in the GB/Dal game: both teams didn't punt last week.

There are some where 1 team didn't, but not both:

KillerSports.com

There may be some back before the '02 re-align, but I am not going thru every playoff game manually...no f*ckin' way

[BT]

Such a slacker, John!!