Marc Lawrence's 10* NFL Game of the Year

[Gambrinus]

Thanks to TheGame for posting Marc Lawrence's 10* game of the year in the Service Plays thread. I happen to think Lawrence is a handicapper who's opinions are worth considering. He made some claims that I verified with SDQL. His words are not very clear, so I might have misinterpreted what he's trying to say.

Under the category, don't believe everything you read, Lawrence's assertions are bulleted:

• Broncos: 4-0 SUATS in the series from Game Thirteen out when Raiders are coming off three consecutive losses;

I see 3-0, his database may go back farther.


https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++


Bonus: All team in that situation, 18-7 ATS

https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

• Raiders are 17-5 SU and 19-2-1 ATS as a home dog when coming off a division games

He said Raiders, but I think he meant Broncos
https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++


including 15-0-1 ATS as a dog of 6 or fewer points when facing an .800 or less opponent;
Again, his database must go back furhter
https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

• Raiders: and 0-7 SU away last game of the season versus division foes

I see 2-8, not 0-7, could depend on what line is used.
https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

• Raiders are 1-7 SU away versus the Broncos, the win by 3-points;

Not sure what he's saying.

• NFL away teams coming off three consecutive home losses, the last as a dog, are 1-8 SU since 1990 ?

He is way off on this:

https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

• NFL home teams in their final games of the season coming off a division game and hosting a foe coming off consecutive losses are 18-2 SU and 20-0 ATS since 2000

The numbers are good, but I think he's wrong:

https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

• NFL .615 or fewer road favorites of more than 2 points coming off three consecutive homes are 0-22 ATS if they failed to beat the spread by 20 or more points in their last game and the home dog in this contest did not beat the spread by 8 or more points in their last contest ?

I read this as a team with less then a .615 winning percentage, who are road favorites of 2 or more, and they just played 3-straight at home, and lost to their opponent by 20 or more and they lost by 8 in their last game. If I can understand his poor English, he's way off again.


https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

• And finally there are the two coaches in this contest, Vic Fangio for Denver who is 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in his career against foes coming off a loss,

Not quite true:

https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

• Jon Gruden for the Raiders who is 0-5 SUATS in his NFL career from Game Thirteen out during the regular season as a favorite when coming off consecutive losses

Not quite true:

https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++


With that we recommend a 10* play on Denver. Thank you and good luck as always.


That said, there's enough here for me to take the Broncos.

[Chamblin]

Re: Marc Lawrence's 10* NFL Game of the Year

Thanks !!

[rolltide]

Re: Marc Lawrence's 10* NFL Game of the Year

• NFL home teams in their final games of the season coming off a division game and hosting a foe coming off consecutive losses are 18-2 SU and 20-0 ATS since 2000

The numbers are good, but I think he's wrong:

i verified this one in my sdql thread. he's on the money at 20-0 ATS just had to shift a line down a bit

[rolltide]

Re: Marc Lawrence's 10* NFL Game of the Year

here it is

7-13-0 (-4.60, 35.0%) 0-20-0 (-10.12, 0.0%) avg line: -5.5 +6: 8-11-1 (42.1%) -6: 0-20-0 (0.0%) +10: 12-8-0 (60.0%) -10: 0-20-0 (0.0%) 7-13-0 (-1.88, 35.0%) avg total: 42.2 +6: 5-15-0 (25.0%) -6: 12-5-3 (70.6%) +10: 4-16-0 (20.0%) -10: 15-4-1 (78.9%)

25.8 111.2 34.8 203.8 21.0 1.4 2.8 4.3 5.2 5.5 17.9 28.6 115.8 29.8 197.9 18.9 1.4 4.0 6.4 5.7 6.4 22.4

Jan 03, 2021 view Sunday 17 2020 Raiders Broncos away -2.5 50.5

[Gambrinus]

Re: Marc Lawrence's 10* NFL Game of the Year

i verified this one in my sdql thread. he's on the money at 20-0 ATS just had to shift a line down a bit

Thanks, it's a good one. I was just going by his words.

[rolltide]

Re: Marc Lawrence's 10* NFL Game of the Year

Thanks, it's a good one. I was just going by his words.

yeah he has his own dbase that goes back 4-5 years further than sportsdatabase and also can be off a point or two on the line, so gotta shift stuff a bit. but, yeah this is a good one

on the other one you questioned for opposing Dallas it was teh same thing. If you open it up a bunch you can find a 6-43 ATS using his general parameters that fits playing against DAL, MIA, and BAL. Of those the only one i bet is on NYG as I already have a bet on BAL 1H -7 and I'm rooting for Tua

[Gambrinus]

Re: Marc Lawrence's 10* NFL Game of the Year

yeah he has his own dbase that goes back 4-5 years further than sportsdatabase and also can be off a point or two on the line, so gotta shift stuff a bit. but, yeah this is a good one

on the other one you questioned for opposing Dallas it was teh same thing. If you open it up a bunch you can find a 6-43 ATS using his general parameters that fits playing against DAL, MIA, and BAL. Of those the only one i bet is on NYG as I already have a bet on BAL 1H -7 and I'm rooting for Tua

Good luck, I'm on the G-men too!

[BT]

Re: Marc Lawrence's 10* NFL Game of the Year

2-A !!!!!!!!!!