Thanks to TheGame for posting Marc Lawrence's 10* game of the year in the Service Plays thread. I happen to think Lawrence is a handicapper who's opinions are worth considering. He made some claims that I verified with SDQL. His words are not very clear, so I might have misinterpreted what he's trying to say.
Under the category, don't believe everything you read, Lawrence's assertions are bulleted:
I see 3-0, his database may go back farther.
https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
Bonus: All team in that situation, 18-7 ATS
https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
He said Raiders, but I think he meant Broncos
https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
including 15-0-1 ATS as a dog of 6 or fewer points when facing an .800 or less opponent;
Again, his database must go back furhter
https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
I see 2-8, not 0-7, could depend on what line is used.
https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
Not sure what he's saying.
He is way off on this:
https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
The numbers are good, but I think he's wrong:
https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
I read this as a team with less then a .615 winning percentage, who are road favorites of 2 or more, and they just played 3-straight at home, and lost to their opponent by 20 or more and they lost by 8 in their last game. If I can understand his poor English, he's way off again.
https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
Not quite true:
https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
Not quite true:
https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
With that we recommend a 10* play on Denver. Thank you and good luck as always.
That said, there's enough here for me to take the Broncos.
Under the category, don't believe everything you read, Lawrence's assertions are bulleted:
- Broncos: 4-0 SUATS in the series from Game Thirteen out when Raiders are coming off three consecutive losses;
I see 3-0, his database may go back farther.
https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
Bonus: All team in that situation, 18-7 ATS
https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
- Raiders are 17-5 SU and 19-2-1 ATS as a home dog when coming off a division games
He said Raiders, but I think he meant Broncos
https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
including 15-0-1 ATS as a dog of 6 or fewer points when facing an .800 or less opponent;
Again, his database must go back furhter
https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
- Raiders: and 0-7 SU away last game of the season versus division foes
I see 2-8, not 0-7, could depend on what line is used.
https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
- Raiders are 1-7 SU away versus the Broncos, the win by 3-points;
Not sure what he's saying.
- NFL away teams coming off three consecutive home losses, the last as a dog, are 1-8 SU since 1990 ?
He is way off on this:
https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
- NFL home teams in their final games of the season coming off a division game and hosting a foe coming off consecutive losses are 18-2 SU and 20-0 ATS since 2000
The numbers are good, but I think he's wrong:
https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
- NFL .615 or fewer road favorites of more than 2 points coming off three consecutive homes are 0-22 ATS if they failed to beat the spread by 20 or more points in their last game and the home dog in this contest did not beat the spread by 8 or more points in their last contest ?
I read this as a team with less then a .615 winning percentage, who are road favorites of 2 or more, and they just played 3-straight at home, and lost to their opponent by 20 or more and they lost by 8 in their last game. If I can understand his poor English, he's way off again.
https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
- And finally there are the two coaches in this contest, Vic Fangio for Denver who is 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in his career against foes coming off a loss,
Not quite true:
https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
- Jon Gruden for the Raiders who is 0-5 SUATS in his NFL career from Game Thirteen out during the regular season as a favorite when coming off consecutive losses
Not quite true:
https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
With that we recommend a 10* play on Denver. Thank you and good luck as always.
That said, there's enough here for me to take the Broncos.
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