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NFL SDQL week 5

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  • NFL SDQL week 5

    totals:
    UNDER big fav off fav game with 2+ turnovers and poor rushing game (46-115 o/u = BAL/CIN under)
    OVER home in nondiv b4 bye week, teams within 40% WP of each other (106-50 o/u = SEA over, NE over, NO over)
    UNDER away on 2+ ATS streak vs opponent on 2+ ATS losing streak (20-45 o/u = CAR/ATL under)
    OVER turn nondiv off faw win with 1+ rush TD and opponent allowed >400 yards (66-16 o/u = NO/LAC over)
    UNDER away off fav away attempting >28 passes/game and avg >3 3rd downs made (7-32 o/u = BUF/TEn under, NE/DEN under, CLE/IND under)
    UNDER away fav off fav game with 1+ goal to go fails away (1-25 o/u = CLE/IND under)
    UNDER off home dog loss making 5+ 3rd downs in b2b games, grass (5-21 o/u = MIA/SF under)
    UNDER grass nondiv off away fav (18-58 o/u = BUF/TEN under, IND/CLE under)
    OVER off home Thu loss as fav or small dog (26-6 o/u = ARI/NYJ over)
    OVER big dog turf nondiv off home loss vs opponent with terrible time of possession last game (59-12 o/u = ARI/NYJ over)
    OVER b2b 3+ passing TD vs team with 3+ passing TD in L2 games combined, opponent allowing >1.5 pass TD/game (49-16 o/u = DAL/NYG over)
    UNDER big fav off fave game with 2+ turnovers and not great offense (14-62 o/u = SF/MIA under)
    OVER pacific vs eastern early in season, neither with bye coming
    OVER MNF with big rest coming (52-20 o/u = NO/LAC over)
    UNDER sunday team allowing 81+ combined L2 weeks (19-61 o/u = DAL/NYG under)
    OVER team not dog of 10+ failed to throw passing TD in 3 straight (64-32 o/u = DAL/NYG over)
    OVER huge dog not turning it over much good rushing team (100-46 o/u = LV/KC over)
    UNDER scored 117+ L3 weeks playing team allowing 17+ and no bye coming (3-22 o/u = CLE/IND under)
    UNDER home team allowing 32+ b2b games and nondiv (13-34 o/u = WAS/LAR under, ARI/NYJ under)
    UNDER big fav off fav game with 2+ turnovers and making <54% of 3rd downs, not same record as opp (15-66 o/u = BAL/CIN under, SF/MIA under)
    OVER nondiv off win with rush TD, opponent off good offense and bad defense game (115-47 o/u = BUF/TEN over, NO/LAC over)
    OVER game 5 sunday home team winning <75% against opponent also winning <75% (44-16 o/u = HOU over, NE over, NYJ over, SF over, ATL over, DAL over) note: never had a losing season...worst was 5-4 o/u last year



    sides:
    PLAY ON away dog off good defensive game that were playoff team LY (103-46 ATS = on PHI, on MIN)
    PLAY ON big fav before bye week and opponent not off blowout loss (76-22 ATS = on SEA, on NE, on NO)
    OPPOSE away good passing teams that are winning <66% of their games (30-63 ATS = on NO)
    OPPOSE nondiv home fav off away nondiv away loss (59-120 ATS = on LAC)
    OPPOSE heavy passing teams allowing a lot of passing TD (23-58 ATS = on NYG)
    PLAY ON away nondiv fav or small dog off away fav loss (25-8 ATS = on ARI)
    OPPOSE big home dogs on grass off dog game and facing heavy rushing team (6-31 ATS = on LAR)
    PLAY ON away conference off away vs opponent avg >2.2 turnovers per game (34-5 ATS = on NYG)
    OPPOSE home team, terrible LY, off blowout loss and allowing more pts than expected in b2b games (2-34 ATS = on LAR)
    ON away dog on grass off home dog or small fav, opponent heavy passing first downs team (53-10 ATS = on MIA, on LV)
    ON home dog just allowed 32+ and didn't score 7+ in first half (110-67 ATS = on CHI)
    OPPOSE off bad or average 3rd down % game but good defense (28-67 ATS = on CLE)
    ON away <.500 team vs opponent off a loss and now winning 75% (155-96 ATS = on JAX, on DEN, on MIA)
    OPPOSE away nondiv with away MNF on tap (4-25 ATS = on NYJ)
    ON win or small loss and b2b losses before that, WP 20-50% (80-30 ATS = on MIN, on NE, on NO)
    OPPOSE grass nondiv off fav waay, opponent excellent in red zone (18-53 ATS = on CLE)
    ON game 4 home team, 3-0 and normal rest coming, opponent not off 10+ loss (18-5 ATS = on PIT, on TEN)
    ON Sunday week 4-5 teams allowing 332+ passing yards/game (19-2 ATS = on SEA, on ATL)
    ON 1-3 team that didn't score >30 last week vs opponent off a win (43-19 ATS = on WAS)
    ON 1-3 nonconf vs opponent off a win and not allowing 28+/game (28-6 ATS = on LAC)
    ON week 4-5 dogs of 2-13.5 when teams combined 0-1 cover YTD (63-22 ATS = on JAX, WAS, NYJ)
    Last edited by rolltide; 10-07-2020, 12:32 PM.

  • #2
    Re: NFL SDQL week 5

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: NFL SDQL week 5

      Thanks RT

      Jefff great to see you here !

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: NFL SDQL week 5

        one against Chicago on Thu...


        Thursday home dogs off sunday game and not with MNF coming are 1-15 SU with just 2 covers if they lost last game by 6 or more


        https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: NFL SDQL week 5

          Rt that's a good one and the su margin of 12.69 and ats margin of 10 is certainly attractive. I like this one a lot. Great thread RT

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: NFL SDQL week 5

            against Philly ... dogs of 6 or more have lost 33 straight, covering only 5x, when away dog of 6+ the following week as long as they scored >16 and allowed <35 in that win. Avg loss by 18+ppg

            https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

            0-33-0 (-18.42, 0.0%)
            5-28-0 (-9.36, 15.2%) avg line: 9.1
            against Philly +7

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: NFL SDQL week 5

              More good info ! Thanks !!!!!!!!!!!!!

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: NFL SDQL week 5

                🍺🍺🏈🏈🏈. Thanks!!

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: NFL SDQL week 5

                  on PIT = unbeaten home teams with extra rest have won and covered 18 straight games in regular season when not off a 34+ point win, winning by avg of 19 ppg

                  https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

                  on PIT (and on TEN if played)

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: NFL SDQL week 5

                    SF are 12-0-1 o/u in this one .... OVER west hosting east, neither team off a bye or a bye coming, and opponent not playing MNF next week

                    https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

                    55-8-2 (8.45, 87.3%) SF/MIA over

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: NFL SDQL week 5

                      overlooking a divisional opponent can be rough in the NFC ... 1-15 ATS last 16 and 8-40 ATS when a team is favored by 8+ over a divisional opponent off a loss when both previous game and next game they were either dogs or no more than 4 point favs

                      https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

                      oppose Dallas
                      Last edited by rolltide; 10-09-2020, 02:21 PM.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: NFL SDQL week 5

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: NFL SDQL week 5

                          LAR should fit this one West coast travel to East coast. wonder why it not showing up in database

                          time zone = P and o:time zone = E and A and line < 2 and season > 2014 and 1250 <= start time <= 1310

                          https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

                          24-5-0 (9.93, 82.8%)
                          22-5-2 (6.09, 81.5%)
                          Play On: LAR Rams

                          Rams are 6-0 SU/ATS on east coast trip

                          https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: NFL SDQL week 5

                            Originally posted by rolltide View Post
                            against Philly ... dogs of 6 or more have lost 33 straight, covering only 5x, when away dog of 6+ the following week as long as they scored >16 and allowed <35 in that win. Avg loss by 18+ppg

                            https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

                            0-33-0 (-18.42, 0.0%)
                            5-28-0 (-9.36, 15.2%) avg line: 9.1
                            against Philly +7

                            if you take out week 17 (garbage) and cap total at 53

                            2-25 (-10.11)

                            https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
                            _______________________________________________
                            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: NFL SDQL week 5

                              Originally posted by bleeker View Post
                              if you take out week 17 (garbage) and cap total at 53

                              2-25 (-10.11)

                              https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
                              make it non Conf matchup and you get 0-9 SU/ATS

                              https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

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