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Re: CHFF week 17 thoughts, good read if you're bored
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks
San Francisco 49ers (-3) @ Seattle Seahawks
49ers: 12-3, 8-6-1 ATS
Seahawks: 11-4, 7-7-1 ATS
Leave it to the NFC West to produce the grandstanding finish we all want, and in primetime at that. The final football game of the NFL regular season comes with enormous import. A Seahawks win at home hands Seattle the NFC West crown and, potentially, a top-two seed in the NFC playoffs. A loss to the 49ers sends the Seahawks to the No. 5 seed and a likely Wild Card Weekend cross-country flight to Philadelphia. Ouch.
The same is true of the 49ers, with the caveat that San Francisco could wind up as the top overall seed in the entire NFC with a win. It's hard to argue they don't deserve it, though they'll now have to prove it against the team that cost them their undefeated mark in November.
The matchups clearly trend toward San Francisco, with one notable exception: The ultimate x-factor that is Russell Wilson. The Seattle quarterback ranks fourth in Real Quarterback Rating and fifth in Offensive Passer Rating, and would be the likely MVP in any season in which Lamar Jackson wasn't changing the face of the NFL. That's not to diminish Jimmy Garoppolo's performance in San Francisco, with Jimmy G inside or near the top-1o league wide in both Real QBR and Offensive Passer Rating, but he just can't catch up to Wilson's brilliance.
That was the subtext to the first meeting between these two teams, and it's likely to emerge again in Week 17. Yet there's a more overlooked factor that has us feeling quietly confident about the 49ers' chances: San Francisco has mounted a top-10 Offensive Rusher Rating season behind the three-headed monster of Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida. If those guys (or anyone one of them) catches fire Sunday, San Francisco is excellently positioned to take advantage of Seattle's 28th-ranked Defensive Rusher Rating. Doing so will help San Fran control the tempo and, we think, the game.
With so much at stake it will all eventually come down to execution. We'll take the creativity of emerging football savant Kyle Shanahan over the grizzled presence of Pete Carroll in one of the better coaching matchups of the season. It's understandable why anyone would want to stay away from such a tight game, particularly with a split among the three key indeces (and the Seahawks owning two of those at that, thanks to Wilson). We're feeling bold enough to lean toward San Francisco.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks
San Francisco 49ers (-3) @ Seattle Seahawks
49ers: 12-3, 8-6-1 ATS
Seahawks: 11-4, 7-7-1 ATS
Leave it to the NFC West to produce the grandstanding finish we all want, and in primetime at that. The final football game of the NFL regular season comes with enormous import. A Seahawks win at home hands Seattle the NFC West crown and, potentially, a top-two seed in the NFC playoffs. A loss to the 49ers sends the Seahawks to the No. 5 seed and a likely Wild Card Weekend cross-country flight to Philadelphia. Ouch.
The same is true of the 49ers, with the caveat that San Francisco could wind up as the top overall seed in the entire NFC with a win. It's hard to argue they don't deserve it, though they'll now have to prove it against the team that cost them their undefeated mark in November.
The matchups clearly trend toward San Francisco, with one notable exception: The ultimate x-factor that is Russell Wilson. The Seattle quarterback ranks fourth in Real Quarterback Rating and fifth in Offensive Passer Rating, and would be the likely MVP in any season in which Lamar Jackson wasn't changing the face of the NFL. That's not to diminish Jimmy Garoppolo's performance in San Francisco, with Jimmy G inside or near the top-1o league wide in both Real QBR and Offensive Passer Rating, but he just can't catch up to Wilson's brilliance.
That was the subtext to the first meeting between these two teams, and it's likely to emerge again in Week 17. Yet there's a more overlooked factor that has us feeling quietly confident about the 49ers' chances: San Francisco has mounted a top-10 Offensive Rusher Rating season behind the three-headed monster of Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida. If those guys (or anyone one of them) catches fire Sunday, San Francisco is excellently positioned to take advantage of Seattle's 28th-ranked Defensive Rusher Rating. Doing so will help San Fran control the tempo and, we think, the game.
With so much at stake it will all eventually come down to execution. We'll take the creativity of emerging football savant Kyle Shanahan over the grizzled presence of Pete Carroll in one of the better coaching matchups of the season. It's understandable why anyone would want to stay away from such a tight game, particularly with a split among the three key indeces (and the Seahawks owning two of those at that, thanks to Wilson). We're feeling bold enough to lean toward San Francisco.
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