CHFF week 17 thoughts, good read if you're bored

[Thomas]

Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)

FALCONS: 6-9, 7-8 ATS

BUCCANEERS: 7-8, 5-8-2 ATS

Of all the dead rubber games in Week 17, who would have thought one of the most intriguing would be served up by the NFC South? The division long since wrapped up in favor of the Saints, two of the group's also-rans go head-to-head in Florida with nothing immediately on the line, but plenty of their future direction.

Will Tampa re-up for the Jameis Winston experience following a record-setting season, both good and bad? Will the Falcons persist with Dan Quinn on the sideline despite another year outside the playoffs? Another win in Tampa would push the Bucs to .500 and the Falcons to 6-2 since their bye, precisely the kind of mark that could convince owner Arthur Blank to give Quinn yet another chance. Add to that the winner landing sole possession of second place in the NFC South and there's plenty of reason for optimism for the winner, and renewed doubt for the loser.

Winston's constant hero ball leave plenty of reason to doubt the Bucs, yet it's Tampa's defense that should provide the decisive edge. As documented earlier this week, the Bucs probably won't spent too much time in Matt Ryan's grill, yet they should still provide problems by gumming up the front line, making it harder to move the ball on the ground and eventually, shutting down the Falcons on key downs.

Do that enough, and Tampa is likely to come good on its edge in two of the three key indeces: Real Quarterback Rating Differential and Intelligence Index. Nothing is a sure thing, but the numbers like the Bucs, particularly at home, in what could be a fascinating and dramatic Week 17 matchup.

[Thomas]

Re: CHFF week 17 thoughts, good read if you're bored

Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings (-1)

BEARS: 7-8, 4-11 ATS

VIKINGS: 10-5, 8-7 ATS

So, which team has less to play for, the Vikings, who are now officially relegated to the No. 6 seed in the playoffs, or the Bears, who can only finish .500 with a win?

It's hard to argue that the Bears aren't among the league's most disappointing teams in 2019, if not the most disappointing outright. Whether via injury or unrealized potential, quarterback Mitchell Trubisky looks like an enormous albatross, to the degree that Bears fans are being gifted gag Mahomes Chicago jerseys. If only. Instead, the Bears have wasted away a year of elite defense with an offense that has struggled to generate absolutely anything against quality opponents.

Meanwhile, the Vikings rounded back into competitive playoff form nicely, but were officially dispatched to the bottom seed in the Wild Card round with a loss to the Packers at home. That's rough, and makes it even harder to see how or why they might take Sunday's game against the Bears seriously. Minnesota is expected to sit Kirk Cousins and most of the key starters in what amounts to a psuedo bye week before the playoffs kick off.

Advantage Chicago? Maybe. It's obvious that the Bears will play a number of starters to further evaluate heading into the offseason and hope for a final dose of mojo. Still, that may not be an advantage in a game where the Vikings hold literally every Quality Stat advantage when starters are factored in.

The final verdict? Just stay away. This is precisely the kind of game that proves both befuddling and, oftentimes, a boon to the Vegas bookmakers alone at the end of a long season.

[Thomas]

Re: CHFF week 17 thoughts, good read if you're bored

Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns (-2.5)

BENGALS: 1-14, 5-9-1 ATS

BROWNS: 6-9, 5-9-1 ATS

There's not much sugarcoating this, the worst team in the league (at least by record and most statistics) visiting a woefully underwhelming Browns team limping to the finish line. If you can find this game enjoyable, you're a real junkie.

What sounds most appealing to you: Cincinnati's worst in the NFL Offensive Passer Rating vs. Cleveland's fourth worst? The No. 28 and 29 teams according to Yards Conceded? Cincinnati's narrow edge in Defensive Rusher Rating ... at No. 29 in the charts? How about a free hot dog at 7-ELEVEN? Yeah, we'd go for the free street meat, too, even if it's been on a warmer all day. Both are sure to make you feel gross, but one will pass in about 24 hours. The memory of the other could linger far longer, regrettably.

There is one silver lining: There's at least a chance that this game devolves into the Browns repeatedly handing the ball off to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt and the Bengals doing the same with Joe Mixon. That could set the stage for a 1980s, NFL Films style showdown. If it happens, have the old school soundtrack at the ready, turn off the play-by-play and sit back to enjoy some old fashioned grind it out fare. That would count as a win, no matter who eventually does win.

As for the betting line, really? You really want to bet on this thing? The Browns are obviously a safer bet, but not by as much as anyone would like, particularly against the Bengals and with nothing on the line. Place that bet at your own risk.

[Thomas]

Re: CHFF week 17 thoughts, good read if you're bored

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers (-12.5) @ Detroit Lions

PACKERS: 12-3, 10-5 ATS

LIONS: 3-11-1, 5-10 ATS

There's everything on the line Sunday in Detroit, just not for the Lions.

Sure, the Lions and second-year coach Matt Patricia could use a fourth win just to minimize the drop off from year one of the Patricia era. There have been more mitigating circumstances than you can shake a stick at — Matthew Stafford, anyone? — but that only goes so far to buying a head coach more time.

It'll land Patricia a 2020 season, but the improvement will have to be more marked, along the lines of what Detroit showed through the season's first six weeks. Whether the Lions have any fight left to show in Week 17 remains to be seen.

On the other sideline there's little question about what the Packers are playing for. Win, and a first round bye — and possibly home field throughout the NFC playoffs — is theirs. Lose, and they could be playing on Wild Card weekend, possibly even against the Vikings again. That is an enormous shift in the road to a Super Bowl, and Green Bay certainly knows it.

As such, there's no reason to believe the Packers will rest anyone, though they clearly would love nothing more than to jump out to an early lead and then sit Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones and company as they salt away a first round bye. It could happen, though something tells us the Lions may make it tougher than many expect, just as they did the first time these two teams faced off. It'd be foolish not to expect a Packers win and bet that way given the statistical spred in their favor, but we'd certainly stay away from the monstrous 12.5-point spread.

[Thomas]

Re: CHFF week 17 thoughts, good read if you're bored

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (-9)

CHARGERS: 5-10, 4-10-1 ATS

CHIEFS: 11-4, 10-5 ATS

There's little question which of these two AFC West rivals has more motivation and talent, yet it feels strangely possible that the Chiefs could still lose this game. OK, maybe not, but it's impossible to rule out the Philip Rivers factor. Playing what could be his last ever game in a Chargers uniform, Rivers will visit the Chiefs looking for a winning coda to a borderline Hall of Fame career with one team (assuming he doesn't re-sign with the Chargers).

There's nothing in the Quality Stats that would indicate such a winning end is a likelihood, but one last Rivers throwback performance with a heavy dose of Keenan Allen and Melvin Gordon providing an assist on the ground could at least make things interesting. The talent is there. The consistency isn't.

That can no longer be said of the Chiefs, who have now turned the corner along the offensive line, continue to do just barely enough to defend the run, and are providing ever more freedom and offensive leadership to reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes.

About the Mahomes factor: No, the league isn't as jaw-droppingly floored by Mahomes' remarkable statistical performances in 2019 as it was in 2018 (perhaps it's just too captivated by Baltimore's Lamar Jackson?), but Jackson has actually been exerting even more influence over the Kansas City offense. The quarterback now more frequently checks out of offensive sets at the line of scrimmage and the results continue to be remarkable: No. 3 in Real Quarterback Rating, No. 6 in Offensive Passer Rating and No. 2 In Real Passing Yards per Attempt. The point? There isn't really a foolproof defense against Mahomes, and if there is one that emerges he'll probably recognize it and check right out of it.

There is one scenario in which Kansas City's in-game motivation could wane to the point that it pulls Mahomes and other starters mid-game, regardless of score. The Chiefs' hope to land the No. 2 overall seed in the AFC rests on the Patriots dropping their season finale against the Dolphins in Foxboro. That seems unlikely, but in the opposite possibility, where New England opens up an enormous lead by halftime against the Dolphins, there's a school of thought that the Chiefs could sit their key contributors for the second half against the Chargers. That could in turn change the balance of competitiveness toward the Chargers.

Likely? No. Neither is a Chargers win, no matter how much the dozen or so remaining Chargers fans might want one for old time's sake.

[Thomas]

Re: CHFF week 17 thoughts, good read if you're bored

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-16)

DOLPHINS: 4-11, 8-7 ATS

PATRIOTS: 12-3, 9-6 ATS

The point spread may reek of recency bias, but there's no doubting the enormous talent disparity all over the field when Miami travels to New England for the Dolphins' final game of the 2019 season. The best part for Miami? Despite just four wins, the 2019 campaign will still go down as a clear success.

Such is the extreme lack of talent on offer in South Florida this season. The Dolphins entered the season labeled as a junior varsity roster more befitting a spot in the SEC than AFC East, then quickly traded away arguably the team's top talent (safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, who was dealt to the Steelers). Still, the team coalesced as the season wound on and eventually scraped out a quartet of victories against two fellow also-rans, a likely playoff squad (the Eagles) and another borderline postseason unit (the Colts). That's a remarkable job on the part of a rookie head coach in Brian Flores, who now will land a top-five pick to add to his team's roster.

To that end, in a future-looking way it active behooves the Dolphins to lose this game to ensure they lock in that top-five spot. A surprise win over New England could jeopardize that, which sacrifices future talent and potential at the expense of one feel good moment at the end of 2019.

Is it worth it? Of course not. That doesn't mean Flores and co. won't try.

It shouldn't matter. The Patriots are clearly more talented on both sides of the ball. They're heavily motivated to win to lock up a top-two seed in the playoffs, complete with the requisite first round bye. And the offense will want to build on the team's most encouraging and well-rounded effort of the season in the win against Buffalo.

That all adds up to a New England victory, barring the shock of the season, league-wide. We can't see that kind of an upset happening no matter who is leading Miami, regardless of the spread.

[Thomas]

Re: CHFF week 17 thoughts, good read if you're bored

New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers
New Orleans Saints (-13) @ Carolina Panthers

SAINTS: 12-3, 10-5 ATS

PANTHERS: 5-10, 6-8-1 ATS

Another game where one team has an enormous amount on the line and the other is a dead fish. Another game where this really shouldn't be so hard.

The Panthers are likely to use rookie Will Grier at quarterback for his second career start in another potential preview of the post-Cam Newton era. If the first salvo was any indication, that era may not be so glittering, and the persistent improvement of the New Orleans defense should only exacerbate that. Yikes.

As for New Orleans, it's clear what's on the line: Win and New Orleans will clinch one of the top two seeds in the NFC. Lose, and things get a lot more murky. Here's betting they won't lose. Just consider the matchups: The Panthers do a good job defending the pass overall, but shouldn't be able to completely neutralize Drew Brees, who remains in one of the richest veins of form he's had in recent seasons. The Panthers feature an excellent Offensive Rusher Rating thanks to Christian McCaffrey's one-man demolition derby show, but the Saints should be able to at least weather that damage by focusing up front and letting the passing chips fall where they may.

And, of course, the Saints have dominant advantages in the three key indeces: Real Quarterback Rating Differential, Passer Rating Differential and the Intelligence Index. The Saints need to win. The Saints should win. The Saints win. Whether you trust them winning by two touchdowns or more on the road is up to you.

[Thomas]

Re: CHFF week 17 thoughts, good read if you're bored

New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (-1.5)

JETS: 6-9, 6-9 ATS

BILLS: 10-5, 9-5-1 ATS

Welcome to the trap game to end all trap games, except it doesn't even matter. At all. Does either team really want to win? We'll find out.

The Bills have nothing to play for, now locked in the No. 5 seed as the first Wild Card team following a tight loss to New England in Foxboro. The Jets can get nothing more from a win except depreciated draft stock in a continued rebuilding process. The Bills have no motivation to play any key contributors and are best suited to rest literally all their starters. The Jets have no motivation to win, and in fact are much better suited falling short.

The question becomes one of culture and momentum. Both teams would like to maintain at least some sense of momentum as they close the regular season, the Bills to bring with them on the road to wherever they play on Wild Card weekend, the Jets to finish with a bright spot in an otherwise disappointing first season under head coach Adam Gase. Yes, the Bills will want to win, and they have better talent to do so, as all three key indeces make clear. Coach Sean McDermott insists that his starters will see at least some playing time, including second-year starting quarterback Josh Allen, coming off one of the more promising starts of his career.

Will that be enough? Our gut says it will in the cold of Orchard Park, but this is the classic game that feels too close to place a bet without traditional motivation to win. Move forward at your own risk, whether you believe in McDermott's will to win for motivation or the Jets' second half improvement with Darnold.

[Thomas]

Re: CHFF week 17 thoughts, good read if you're bored

Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (-7)

CARDINALS: 5-9-1, 9-5-1 ATS

RAMS: 8-7, 10-5 ATS

One of the most fascinating dead rubber games of Week 17, it's hard to view Cardinals at Rams as anything less than a potential trains passing in the night moment. As the Rams whimper out of the regular season without a playoff berth for the first time under Sean McVay, the Cardinals are surging toward the finish with a win in Seattle that has upended the NFC West just before the finish line.

The issue, of course, is whether either team fields a complete squad. The Cardinals finished off the Seahawks with Brett Hundley, not peaking rookie Kyler Murray at quarterback. Murray has been listed as limited at practices throughout the week with a tweaked hamstring, but quarterback Kliff Kingsbury insists he'll play if he can prepare for the start. The Rams, meanwhile, will try to defend Murray without all-everything defensive back Jalen Ramsey. That's not good.

For his part, if he is healthy, Murray has far out performed his Rams counterpart, Jared Goff, throughout the season, particularly as he began to get more comfortable with Kingsbury's offense in the second half of the season. The issue is that the Cardinals passing defense is so woeful it has traditionally undercut Murray's better work; they feature the worst Defensive Passer Rating and second-worst Yards Conceded mark in the NFL.

Will Goff take advantage of the Cardinals' slipshod defensive backfield? He should. Will the Cardinals take advantage of a mid-range Defensive Rusher Rating squad in Los Angeles by flexing its league-best rushing attack? It should, while Arizona's excellent defensive front should limit what Todd Gurley and company can do on the ground for the Rams.

Put it all together and it makes for a fascinating season curtain call for both teams. We get the feeling that this will be a much tighter game than the oddsmakers predict, even if the questions surrounding Murray makes us lean toward the Rams.

[Thomas]

Re: CHFF week 17 thoughts, good read if you're bored

Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

COLTS: 7-8, 7-6-2 ATS

JAGUARS: 5-10, 6-9 ATS

Neither of these teams expected to be out of the playoffs at the end of the season. Now it's possible they'll both finish with losing records, licking their wounds toward Draft Day. It's not what either owner or their fans wanted or would have accepted. The question in Week 17 is whether either team really wants one more win, or a shot at a better draft pick.

The Jaguars were supposed to have served their longstanding quarterback issues with a big contract for Nick Foles. Oops. Try again. The Colts though they might have hit lightning in a bottle with Jacoby Brissett in the immediate aftermath of Andrew Luck's retirement. So much for that. Both teams have settled in to Offensive Passer Ratings and Real Quarterback Ratings ranging from 16-22, the middle third of the league. That's about what they deserve.

With so little on the line, and so little motivation for teams to win or lose the finale, it's likely that the single most significant determinant will be the Colts' clear dominance up front and in the running game. Far from the 2017 team that nearly earned a Super Bowl berth, this Jags team ranks bottom of the league on the ground offensively, next to last in stopping the run and finds itself facing off against a Colts team with a top-10 Defensive Rusher Rating and top-half Offensive Rusher Rating.

When combined with an edge in two of the three key indeces — including an enormous spread in the Intelligence Index — it's hard to bet against the Colts ... provided you can convince yourself that betting on an unpredictable dead rubber game like this is worth chasing.

[Thomas]

Re: CHFF week 17 thoughts, good read if you're bored

Oakland Raiders vs. Denver Broncos
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos (-3.5)

RAIDERS: 7-8, 7-8 ATS

BRONCOS: 6-9, 9-6 ATS

That the Raiders are still alive for a playoff berth and enter Denver as underdogs by more than the standard three-point road penalty speaks volumes about the lack of consistency and talent in the AFC beyond the conference's top five teams. Will the Raiders squeak into the postseason with a win? Maybe, though it seems unlikely with both the Ravens resting everyone against the must-win Steelers and the Texans likely to do similar vs. the Titans. Still, they're in the picture, which seems almost farcical given some of their results from recent weeks.

Conversely, the Broncos' late-season surge — Denver is 3-1 since Week 12 — makes one wonder if they might have actually been in a playoff spot themselves if Drew Lock had been available earlier and they hadn't dealt Emmanuel Sanders at the trade deadline. Let the game of what if's roll on. (and let the Hard Knocks crew rock up in Denver in the offseason. We'll take a full dose of John Elway navigating his own prior QB messes while trying not to interfere too much with Lock all day)

That the Raiders continue to talk through back channels about a quarterback change in the offseason seems almost farcical given the performance Oakland has received from Derek Carr this season. The veteran has turned in a top-10 performance in both Real Quarterback Rating and Offensive Passer Rating despite passing to targets that we'd probably hear plenty of veiled shots about from the likes of Tom Brady. What the Raiders' haven't been particularly good at is making the most of critical offensive possessions (they're 30th in Scoreability) or defensive positions, particularly as opponents near the red zone (they're 29th in always critical Bendability). The Broncos aren't much better in Scoreability, thanks in large part to a horrendously slow start in that category under Joe Flacco, but they're just outside the top-10 in Bendability, providing a clear advantage in the Intelligence Index.

The Raiders feature a top-five offensive line (per the Offensive Hog Index) while the Broncos are just outside the top-five up front defensively (per the Defensive Hog Index). Relatively speaking, the Raiders gain a lot of yards (eighth in Team Yards) while the Broncos don't give up many (sixth in Yards Conceded).

It all makes for a fascinating matchup of two teams that have strengths and weaknesses that line up head-to-head quite nicely. Given Lock's continued strong rookie performance and the fact that he gets to suit up at home against a Raiders defense that hasn't seen him yet, we're tempted to run with the Broncos, with other results potentially sapping any last ditch momentum the Raiders could drum up in a playoff push.

[Thomas]

Re: CHFF week 17 thoughts, good read if you're bored

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) @ New York Giants

EAGLES: 8-7, 6-9 ATS

GIANTS: 4-11, 8-7 ATS

So the NFC East comes down to this: The Eagles win against the Daniel Jones-led Giants and they're in. Lose and watch the Cowboys beat the Redskins (they will, that's the most Cowboys thing possible for Dallas to cruise after dropping a critical game in Philly), and they're out. Given Philly's boffo defensive performance and clutch playmaking from Carson Wentz, it's hard not to see the Eagles finding a way.

Then again, this is the same NFC East where both the two leaders lost to the Jets, and this is right there back in New Jersey. Sometimes old, bad habits die hard.

Not this time. As we already noted this week, the Giants' surge in the Offensive Hog Index was far more isolated aberration than legitimate trend, thanks in part to a brutal performance by the Redskins. Meanwhile, the Eagles are very real up front on both sides of the ball; those top-five Offensive and Defensive Hog Index ratings are very well deserved, even if their decision to field almost no recognizable healthy wideouts can leave one scratching their head.

The bigger picture? Carson Wentz's late season improvement (despite the aforementioned lack of targets) has him deservedly in and around the top half of the NFL Real Quarterback Ratings and Offensive Passer Ratings. And the Giants defensive backfield is a mess, with their passing defense an absolute struggle as a result.

Want more statistical proof? Here's the spread in the key indeces: Real QBR, +15 to Philly; Passer Rating, +15 to Philly; Intelligence Index, +7 to Philly. All three should point to a win, even against a refreshed and confident Daniel Jones. Hear that Giants quarterbacks? No Hoboken celebrations this week!

[Thomas]

Re: CHFF week 17 thoughts, good read if you're bored

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens EVEN

STEELERS: 8-7, 7-6-2 ATS

RAVENS: 13-2, 9-5-1 ATS

We hear you, "Why is this game a push?" It's all about motivation, friends.

The Steelers have absolutely everything to play for: a potential playoff berth (if the Titans lose), immediate and ultimate redemption for Mike Tomlin by leading a non-Ben Roethlisberger Pittsburgh team to the playoffs, a chance to prove that their defense is now set up for the foreseeable future. The Ravens have literally nothing to suit up for, short of paying customers and the desperate need to stay healthy by not playing regulars.

Huge advantage, Pittsburgh.

That being said, this is still a quarterback matchup with a recently demoted Devlin "Duck" Hodges taking on Robert Griffin III, a former Heisman winner and briefly NFL phenom. Even with the perennial injury concerns, that's a talent advantage for Baltimore. So is just about every other area of the field, barring Rushing Defense — where Pittsburgh features the league's best — and the Defensive Hog Index (just like the aforementioned rushing defense).

Of course, that rushing defense is precisely what the Steelers would need to negate the usual Baltimore offensive attack, which made this a potential must-see game earlier in the fall. Now it's a referendum on whether the Steelers are truly playoff worthy without Roethlisberger and whether the Ravens are just the Lamar Jackson show.

Count us in the company of no, on both. Baltimore's offensive approach with RGIII should be different, but not enormously so. And Pittsburgh has enough to win if the Ravens truly bag the game ... but something tells us that's not in this team's DNA (nor John Harbaugh's).

If we had to bet, we'd probably lean on the homestanding Ravens, even with absolutely nothing on the line short of the pride gained from 14 regular season wins. Since we don't have a gun to our head, this is precisely the type of game we'll stay away from, and we'd suggest you consider doing so, too.

[Thomas]

Re: CHFF week 17 thoughts, good read if you're bored

Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans
Tennessee Titans (-3.5) @ Houston Texans

TITANS: 8-7, 8-7 ATS

TEXANS: 10-5, 7-7-1 ATS

So, let's get this straight. The Texans were favored in Tennessee, and delivered to take control of the division. Now the Titans are favored in Houston, and if they deliver they could land themselves a playoff spot? Of course, because this is the AFC South.

The Titans can claim a berth outright with a win. The other good news for Titans fans: Houston has little motivation of its own to win this game, short of keeping the Titans out of the postseason altogether, and the Titans have plenty of game advantages against the Texans.

Despite Deshaun Watson's borderline All-Pro season, the Titans actually rank higher in both Real Quarterback Rating and Offensive Passer Rating, as well as their respective differentials (more importantly!). They also hold the edge in the Intelligence Index, making for a clean sweep in the three key indeces. The Titans' top-five Offensive Rusher Rating unit will be stuck up against a top-10 Defensive Rusher Rating unit in Houston, but has the versatility to cause problems for the Texans defense, particularly if they pull some of the key contributors off the field early.

The point? There are plenty of reasons to think the Titans come good this time as they couldn't two weeks ago. After a sterling 6-1 start to Ryan Tannehill's tenure as the Titans starter, the team is on a two-game losing streak, both against strong playoff contenders. Turning that around this week would be good enough for 7-3 and a well-earned spot in the postseason. Given the asymmetrical motivations (the Titans need to win, the Texans need to stay healthy), it's a lot easier to see that as the eventual outcome than a final record of 6-4 under Tannehill and a spot on the couch watching the playoffs in the first weekend of 2020.

[Thomas]

Re: CHFF week 17 thoughts, good read if you're bored

Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys
Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys (-10.5)

REDSKINS: 3-12, 6-9 ATS

COWBOYS: 7-8, 8-7 ATS

You know you've seen this made for TV movie before. The Cowboys underwhelm in a huge game, then bounce back with a cruise control win. Because of course they show what they can do when it's too late.

At least that's the narrative being trotted out by Cowboys fans, frustrated by a team with oodles of talent underperforming in key moments. A season that began with legitimate Super Bowl hype will probably end before the calendar turns to 2020, which is both a stunning result and deeply disappointing turn for Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, not to mention a surefire end to the Jason Garrett era in Dallas.

None of that is particularly relevant to the drivers behind Sunday's game, of course. At kickoff, the Cowboys will still be in with a shot at the playoffs if they can win and have the Giants do what Dallas couldn't do last week: Beat Philadelphia. As for the matchup with the Redskins, it's hardly worth mentioning. Dallas has a statistical advantage in literally every Quality Stat category except one, and that one (Defensive Rusher Rating) is a near push. Dallas has more motivation and, short of the team completely downing tools in the Garrett send-off (a possibility!), this should be an easy Cowboys win.

A win by more than a touchdown and field goal? Given how close the Redskins played the Eagles two weeks ago, maybe not. Then again, with the Cowboys and a chance to prove what their elite personnel can produce, with two of them (quarterback Dak Prescott and wide receiver Amari Cooper) facing uncertain futures in the offseason, no score seems completely off the table in this one, good or bad. We're betting on the good for sure, but we wouldn't rule anything out.