I am constantly looking for solid reasons to play unders when I bet because it is generally the contrarian side on totals. The public loves OVERS and plays them almost instinctually. One type of NFL game I consider to be a better bet for UNDERS are divisional rivalry games. Most coaches preach the importance of these games, I know for a fact Green Bay coach McCarthy talks about these as almost worth double because of the tie-breaker ramifications involved. When I think about teams playing hard, to me that extra effort for the most part means good defense is played by both parties involved. I also think the familiarity of being rivals makes it harder to be effective offensively since your opponents know what you will try to do. A 2nd factor in finding value in totals is finding reasons previous scores may have been skewed. Defensive TD's is the first thing that pops to my mind when I think of fake points added to a game total. They can't be handicapped for but they cause total inflation because the average bettor isn't sharp enough to factor them in. This week's killersports NFL newsletter has an interesting system that includes just these 2 simple parameters...Home teams playing a division game that scored a defensive TD last week. The games involving these teams have a 61.1% UNDER rate. Also significant is the fact every season since 2004 there were at least as many unders as overs following this, meaning you won money every year following this blindly. Some back-fit systems just don't hold water with me, this one is simple and makes sense. I did a little additional work on this system and posted that below...
2005...2--6-1 O/U
2006...2-5 O/U
2007...4-9 O/U
2008...7-10 O/U
2009...4-9 O/U
2010...4-8 O/U
2011...6-7 O/U
2012...4-5-1 O/U
2013...7-8 O/U
2014...6-7 O/U
2015...4-9 O/U
2016...3-8 O/U
2017...5-5 O/U
2018...2-4 O/U so far this season and active this week on the Chiefs/Denver game.
If you add in the factor that both teams scored a defensive TD as both Denver and Kansas City did last week the O/U in those games shoots all the way to a 80% UNDER rate, 7-28 O/U in all games in the database. This one also is on a run of 4-27 O/U since 2002, an 87.1% UNDER win rate.The links for these are below...
https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
2005...2--6-1 O/U
2006...2-5 O/U
2007...4-9 O/U
2008...7-10 O/U
2009...4-9 O/U
2010...4-8 O/U
2011...6-7 O/U
2012...4-5-1 O/U
2013...7-8 O/U
2014...6-7 O/U
2015...4-9 O/U
2016...3-8 O/U
2017...5-5 O/U
2018...2-4 O/U so far this season and active this week on the Chiefs/Denver game.
If you add in the factor that both teams scored a defensive TD as both Denver and Kansas City did last week the O/U in those games shoots all the way to a 80% UNDER rate, 7-28 O/U in all games in the database. This one also is on a run of 4-27 O/U since 2002, an 87.1% UNDER win rate.The links for these are below...
https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
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