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NFL Division Unders

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  • #1

    NFL Division Unders

    I am constantly looking for solid reasons to play unders when I bet because it is generally the contrarian side on totals. The public loves OVERS and plays them almost instinctually. One type of NFL game I consider to be a better bet for UNDERS are divisional rivalry games. Most coaches preach the importance of these games, I know for a fact Green Bay coach McCarthy talks about these as almost worth double because of the tie-breaker ramifications involved. When I think about teams playing hard, to me that extra effort for the most part means good defense is played by both parties involved. I also think the familiarity of being rivals makes it harder to be effective offensively since your opponents know what you will try to do. A 2nd factor in finding value in totals is finding reasons previous scores may have been skewed. Defensive TD's is the first thing that pops to my mind when I think of fake points added to a game total. They can't be handicapped for but they cause total inflation because the average bettor isn't sharp enough to factor them in. This week's killersports NFL newsletter has an interesting system that includes just these 2 simple parameters...Home teams playing a division game that scored a defensive TD last week. The games involving these teams have a 61.1% UNDER rate. Also significant is the fact every season since 2004 there were at least as many unders as overs following this, meaning you won money every year following this blindly. Some back-fit systems just don't hold water with me, this one is simple and makes sense. I did a little additional work on this system and posted that below...
    2005...2--6-1 O/U
    2006...2-5 O/U
    2007...4-9 O/U
    2008...7-10 O/U
    2009...4-9 O/U
    2010...4-8 O/U
    2011...6-7 O/U
    2012...4-5-1 O/U
    2013...7-8 O/U
    2014...6-7 O/U
    2015...4-9 O/U
    2016...3-8 O/U
    2017...5-5 O/U
    2018...2-4 O/U so far this season and active this week on the Chiefs/Denver game.
    If you add in the factor that both teams scored a defensive TD as both Denver and Kansas City did last week the O/U in those games shoots all the way to a 80% UNDER rate, 7-28 O/U in all games in the database. This one also is on a run of 4-27 O/U since 2002, an 87.1% UNDER win rate.The links for these are below...

    https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

    https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
    "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Re: NFL Division Unders

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    • #3
      Re: NFL Division Unders

      I'd think that line goes back to 54.5, maybe 55, closer to Sunday.

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      • #4
        Re: NFL Division Unders

        if you make next game a non division game you extract a lot of bad..actually more overs than unders if the following game is a division game
        _______________________________________________
        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

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        • #5
          Re: NFL Division Unders

          Originally posted by bleeker View Post
          if you make next game a non division game you extract a lot of bad..actually more overs than unders if the following game is a division game
          I figured 80% was good enough
          "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

          Comment

          • #6
            Re: NFL Division Unders

            Originally posted by jumperjack View Post
            I figured 80% was good enough
            I was speaking about the bigger sample with 1 defensive td..I should have been more specific
            _______________________________________________
            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

            Comment

            • #7
              Re: NFL Division Unders

              Added a 3rd link for the subset bleeker mentioned
              "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

              Comment

              • #8
                Re: NFL Division Unders

                2 others subsets added (separately) to NDIV that i thought were good

                p:AF (6-34 o/u) 85%

                week 5-16 (33-85 o/u) 72%
                _______________________________________________
                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                Comment

                • #9
                  Re: NFL Division Unders

                  Anyone following this??

                  The links arent working??

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                  • #10
                    Re: NFL Division Unders

                    Link for DIV games under after a Def TD...

                    https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

                    And the link for when both teams are off a Def TD...

                    https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

                    Also edited original post to remove the links that went bad.
                    "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

                    Comment

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