Best Bets - Week 12
The Baltimore Ravens couldn't manage to do enough to keep it within the seven points they were getting at Dallas last week as the Cowboys ATS train keeps on rolling.
That's two straight weeks where my NFL best bets came up short and I believe that poor run ends this week.
The final push towards the playoffs begins this week for many teams across the league, and one of those teams in the thick of a division race is involved in a game where the wrong team appears to be favored.
Best Bet: Houston +1.5
This spread opened up as Houston being -1 or pick'em, but after a national television audience saw them make poor decision after poor decision (punting in the 4th quarter for one) and lose on MNF, all of the early action has come in on the well-rested San Diego Chargers.
NFL teams off a bye week are typically popular plays among the general betting populous, but seeing this much love for the Chargers is a bit surprising. At 4-6 SU and chasing all three divisional rivals for a wildcard spot, San Diego knows that their chances of getting into the playoffs are next to nothing.
Now, Chargers fans would like to view it as they've got plenty of head-to-head matchups left against those same division rivals they are chasing, but this is a team that would be in much better shape had they not blown multiple games late in a variety of ways already.
The most recent of those defeats came in their last contest when QB Phillip Rivers threw a Pick-Six in the final minute of the game to break the tie with Miami, and it was the fifth time this year the Chargers snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
Now they are going on the road and laying points against a Texans team that is undefeated at home and will be doing everything they can to hold onto their slim lead in the AFC South.
There really is no defending some of the choices Texans HC Bill O'Brien made on MNF, and it's safe to say that Houston got too desperate this offseason when they opened up the bank account to get Brock Osweiler. Yet, this is still a team that is one of the better running teams in the league and when you can control the game with your ground attack, everything else downfield opens up.
For as bad as Houston has been on the road this season, they've been quite good at home and have to view this week's game as a must-win. They've got the Colts and Titans nipping at their heels in the division race, but with Andrew Luck out this week for the Colts (vs. Pittsburgh) and Tennessee in a tough spot laying points in Chicago, a win by Houston this week could open up their lead in the division to two games again.
The Texans will already know the Colts result by the time they hit the field and if Indy does pull off a shocking upset with Scott Tolzien at QB, getting this win over San Diego is even more important.
Not only has Houston been perfect at home straight up, they are 4-0-1 ATS on their own field this year and have a 3-0-1 ATS run going when coming off a loss.
As an organization they've got a 4-1 ATS run going after playing on MNF, and their defense has been much better in recent weeks aside from the few lapses that cause the big plays.
It was those big plays that hurt them vs. Oakland on MNF and if they eliminate those mistakes this week, a 6-0 SU record at home will follow.
Given all the early money that's already come San Diego's way as many view this as a do-or-die game for the Chargers, this line has moved too much in the wrong direction here now.
The Chargers have proven that no lead they've got in the 4th quarter is ever safe this year and I fully expect Houston to pull this game out in the end.
The Baltimore Ravens couldn't manage to do enough to keep it within the seven points they were getting at Dallas last week as the Cowboys ATS train keeps on rolling.
That's two straight weeks where my NFL best bets came up short and I believe that poor run ends this week.
The final push towards the playoffs begins this week for many teams across the league, and one of those teams in the thick of a division race is involved in a game where the wrong team appears to be favored.
Best Bet: Houston +1.5
This spread opened up as Houston being -1 or pick'em, but after a national television audience saw them make poor decision after poor decision (punting in the 4th quarter for one) and lose on MNF, all of the early action has come in on the well-rested San Diego Chargers.
NFL teams off a bye week are typically popular plays among the general betting populous, but seeing this much love for the Chargers is a bit surprising. At 4-6 SU and chasing all three divisional rivals for a wildcard spot, San Diego knows that their chances of getting into the playoffs are next to nothing.
Now, Chargers fans would like to view it as they've got plenty of head-to-head matchups left against those same division rivals they are chasing, but this is a team that would be in much better shape had they not blown multiple games late in a variety of ways already.
The most recent of those defeats came in their last contest when QB Phillip Rivers threw a Pick-Six in the final minute of the game to break the tie with Miami, and it was the fifth time this year the Chargers snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
Now they are going on the road and laying points against a Texans team that is undefeated at home and will be doing everything they can to hold onto their slim lead in the AFC South.
There really is no defending some of the choices Texans HC Bill O'Brien made on MNF, and it's safe to say that Houston got too desperate this offseason when they opened up the bank account to get Brock Osweiler. Yet, this is still a team that is one of the better running teams in the league and when you can control the game with your ground attack, everything else downfield opens up.
For as bad as Houston has been on the road this season, they've been quite good at home and have to view this week's game as a must-win. They've got the Colts and Titans nipping at their heels in the division race, but with Andrew Luck out this week for the Colts (vs. Pittsburgh) and Tennessee in a tough spot laying points in Chicago, a win by Houston this week could open up their lead in the division to two games again.
The Texans will already know the Colts result by the time they hit the field and if Indy does pull off a shocking upset with Scott Tolzien at QB, getting this win over San Diego is even more important.
Not only has Houston been perfect at home straight up, they are 4-0-1 ATS on their own field this year and have a 3-0-1 ATS run going when coming off a loss.
As an organization they've got a 4-1 ATS run going after playing on MNF, and their defense has been much better in recent weeks aside from the few lapses that cause the big plays.
It was those big plays that hurt them vs. Oakland on MNF and if they eliminate those mistakes this week, a 6-0 SU record at home will follow.
Given all the early money that's already come San Diego's way as many view this as a do-or-die game for the Chargers, this line has moved too much in the wrong direction here now.
The Chargers have proven that no lead they've got in the 4th quarter is ever safe this year and I fully expect Houston to pull this game out in the end.
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