NFL Betting Info 11/28

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Best Bets - Week 12


The Baltimore Ravens couldn't manage to do enough to keep it within the seven points they were getting at Dallas last week as the Cowboys ATS train keeps on rolling.


That's two straight weeks where my NFL best bets came up short and I believe that poor run ends this week.


The final push towards the playoffs begins this week for many teams across the league, and one of those teams in the thick of a division race is involved in a game where the wrong team appears to be favored.


Best Bet: Houston +1.5


This spread opened up as Houston being -1 or pick'em, but after a national television audience saw them make poor decision after poor decision (punting in the 4th quarter for one) and lose on MNF, all of the early action has come in on the well-rested San Diego Chargers.


NFL teams off a bye week are typically popular plays among the general betting populous, but seeing this much love for the Chargers is a bit surprising. At 4-6 SU and chasing all three divisional rivals for a wildcard spot, San Diego knows that their chances of getting into the playoffs are next to nothing.


Now, Chargers fans would like to view it as they've got plenty of head-to-head matchups left against those same division rivals they are chasing, but this is a team that would be in much better shape had they not blown multiple games late in a variety of ways already.


The most recent of those defeats came in their last contest when QB Phillip Rivers threw a Pick-Six in the final minute of the game to break the tie with Miami, and it was the fifth time this year the Chargers snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.


Now they are going on the road and laying points against a Texans team that is undefeated at home and will be doing everything they can to hold onto their slim lead in the AFC South.


There really is no defending some of the choices Texans HC Bill O'Brien made on MNF, and it's safe to say that Houston got too desperate this offseason when they opened up the bank account to get Brock Osweiler. Yet, this is still a team that is one of the better running teams in the league and when you can control the game with your ground attack, everything else downfield opens up.


For as bad as Houston has been on the road this season, they've been quite good at home and have to view this week's game as a must-win. They've got the Colts and Titans nipping at their heels in the division race, but with Andrew Luck out this week for the Colts (vs. Pittsburgh) and Tennessee in a tough spot laying points in Chicago, a win by Houston this week could open up their lead in the division to two games again.


The Texans will already know the Colts result by the time they hit the field and if Indy does pull off a shocking upset with Scott Tolzien at QB, getting this win over San Diego is even more important.


Not only has Houston been perfect at home straight up, they are 4-0-1 ATS on their own field this year and have a 3-0-1 ATS run going when coming off a loss.


As an organization they've got a 4-1 ATS run going after playing on MNF, and their defense has been much better in recent weeks aside from the few lapses that cause the big plays.


It was those big plays that hurt them vs. Oakland on MNF and if they eliminate those mistakes this week, a 6-0 SU record at home will follow.


Given all the early money that's already come San Diego's way as many view this as a do-or-die game for the Chargers, this line has moved too much in the wrong direction here now.


The Chargers have proven that no lead they've got in the 4th quarter is ever safe this year and I fully expect Houston to pull this game out in the end.

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Re: NFL Betting Info 11/28

Packers look to snap skid


Week 12 SNF Betting Preview
Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles


Odds: Philadelphia (-4); Total set at 48


The Green Bay Packers have been one of the NFL's best teams to fade in the month of November as they have gone 0-3 ATS so far in the month as part of a four-game losing streak.


It's been the Packers defense that's to blame for those defeats as they seemingly can't stop anyone right now, allowing 30 or more points in all four of their defeats during this run, including 40+ in the last two.


At 4-6 SU and looking up at the 7-4 SU Detroit Lions in the division, there is no more margin of error left in Green Bay's season and they've got to turn things around in a hurry.


Going into Philadelphia on MNF isn't exactly the best place to start a turnaround for the Packers as Philly has been a very tough out at home. The Eagles have beaten the likes of Pittsburgh, Minnesota, and Atlanta already on this field and have been much better then people expected entering the year.


Rookie QB Carson Wentz appears to be the real deal, and a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS mark at home this season is part of the reason they are laying more than a FG here. Obviously, Green Bay's disasters the past few weeks finally appear to have many jumping off their bandwagon, but I wouldn't be in such a hurry to lay the chalk with the Eagles this week.


For one, Green Bay's offense has been doing everything they can to eliminate the mistakes made by their defense during this losing stretch. Had the Packers got even average defensive play over their past four games they could very well be sitting at 2-2 SU over that stretch and right in the hunt for the NFC North lead.


It was Aaron Rodgers and the offense that endured much of the criticism early on this year, but with 24 or more points in five straight games, that Packers offense has found something that definitely works.


That play will be tested against an Eagles team that has yet to allow more than 15 points in any home game this season, but the level of desperation on the Green Bay sideline this week will be at an all-time high and they are going to need to rely on their strength (the offense) to save their season.


Green Bay has gone 4-1 ATS in their past five games with Philadelphia and are playing an Eagles team who've had their own struggles this month too as they are 1-5 ATS in their last six November games.


Secondly, the Eagles dominance at home has come in large part because of their ability to force numerous turnovers in those contests and halt the opposition in their tracks. I expect this to be one of Aaron Rodgers' best games of the year to date and I don't see him or the rest of the Packers offense putting the ball on the turf much.


Taking care of the ball will force an Eagles offense that only averages 222.1 yards/game through the air to continually go the length of the field. Even with all of Green Bay's defensive issues of late, forcing the Eagles to go the length of the field on a routine basis gives the Packers defense a much higher chance at success.


So while many are finally jumping ship on the Packers this year after there defensive struggles were laid bare for everyone to see on national television last week, I'm taking the alternate approach here and believe them to be the side that gives this Eagles team their first home loss of the year.


Remember, the Eagles were projected to be a 6-7 win team this year with Wentz at the helm and that's likely exactly where they'll finish.


No team is ever as bad as they look one week – especially on a nationally televised game – and with the Eagles offense not striking fear in anyone these days, the Packers defense should surprise many with a strong turnaround.


Best Bet: Take Green Bay +4

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Re: NFL Betting Info 11/28

Monday Night Football Picks: Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles Odds & Predictions
by Alan Matthews


The last time the Green Bay Packers missed the playoffs was in 2008 when Aaron Rodgers finally replaced Brett Favre as the team's starting quarterback. Rodgers had his first-year starter growing pains but obviously has become one of the best QBs of his era and of all time.


I can say pretty confidently that if the Packers (4-6) don't win Monday night in Philadelphia to conclude Week 12 that they will not be a playoff team in 2016 and that there will be major turnover on the team's coaching staff in the offseason. It's possible highly-successful head coach Mike McCarthy survives, but he probably is forced to make several coaching changes -- starting on the defensive side of the ball. If this were any other team but the Packers and perhaps the Pittsburgh Steelers, two franchises that are fairly conservative in making big changes and reward loyalty, then I think McCarthy would be gone for sure.


At 2.5 games behind in the NFC North, the Pack aren't winning the division. And the remaining schedule is pretty tough even with three of five at home: vs. Texans, vs. Seahawks, at Bears, vs. Vikings and at Lions. Maybe the Pack can go 4-1 in that stretch, meaning a win Monday would put them at 9-7. Will that be enough for a wild-card spot? Perhaps, with the Pack battling the Giants, Redskins and possibly Bucs outside the NFC North for one of those spots.


At 5-5, the Eagles would be competing for a division title in the AFC North and South and NFC North and South, but they are four games behind Dallas in the NFC East entering Week 12 and in last place. Philly's schedule is easier than Green Bay's the rest of the way: at Bengals (in free-fall), vs. Redskins, at Ravens, vs. Giants, vs. Cowboys. Not impossible to see a 4-1 record there. Thus 10-6 is doable with a win Monday. That probably is enough for a wild-card spot.


Packers at Eagles Betting Story Lines


This concludes Green Bay's first three-game road trip in four years -- back when it started Week 10 in Tennessee I mentioned here a prop on the total Packer wins during it ; I recommended the under 1.5 and that already has hit. The banged-up Packer defense -- totally ravaged in the secondary -- has allowed at least 31 points in each of its four-game losing streak and a total of 89 points the past two weeks in Tennessee and Washington.


The Redskins torched Green Bay for 515 yards last Sunday night in an 18-point victory. There was history made in that game. Washington's Kirk Cousins and Rodgers became only the seventh pair of opposing quarterbacks in NFL history to both throw for at least 350 yards with three or more touchdowns and no interceptions in the same game. Rodgers has been pretty fantastic in the losing streak as the Packers have scored at least 26 points in each. If you can't win scoring that many points, well, you are the Cleveland Browns.


Philadelphia continued its season-long trend of struggling on the road in Week 11, a 26-15 loss in Seattle. Carson Wentz has really gone into a rookie funk and was just 23-for-45 for 218 yards, two touchdowns and two picks. Wentz had a rating north of 100 in three of his first four games. He has been over 90 just once since. It doesn't help that Wentz has no good receivers other than Jordan Matthews, and he's probably not a true No. 1. Wentz is completing 66 percent of his throws to Matthews this season with three touchdowns and no interceptions for a 103.1 quarterback rating. The numbers aren't nearly as good to the other receivers like Nelson Agholor and Dorial Green-Beckham. I expect the Eagles to target one early in the 2017 draft -- they owe the Browns their first-round pick but have the Vikings' first-rounder.


The Eagles are hurting at running back as No. 1 Ryan Mathews and No. 2 Darren Sproles both left the Seahawks game with injuries. It's not clear if either can play yet, but if not then rookie Wendell Smallwood will start. He had 13 carries for 48 yards vs. Seattle. Also hurt last week were top cornerback Leodis McKelvin, who is in the concussion protocol, and rookie starting right tackle Halapoulivaati Vaitai, who is out several weeks with a knee injury. Vaitai was starting there because of the 10-game suspension to Lane Johnson.


Packers at Eagles Betting Odds and Trends


Philadelphia is a 4-point favorite (-110) with a total of 47. On the moneyline, the Eagles are -205 and the Packers +173. On the alternate lines, the Eagles are -4.5 (-103) and -3.5 (-117). Green Bay is 4-5-1 against the spread (2-3 on road) and 6-4 "over/under" (4-1 on road). Philadelphia is 5-5 ATS (4-0 at home) and 5-5 O/U (0-4 at home).


The Packers are 1-4-1 ATS in their past six after a loss of at least 14 points. They are 0-6 ATS in their past six after allowing at least 30 points in their previous game. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their past six on Monday. They are 1-5 ATS in their past six in November. The under is 14-5 in Green Bay's past 20 vs. the NFC. The under is 6-1 in the past seven meetings. The Pack are 4-1 ATS in the past five in the series.


Packers at Eagles Betting Prediction


I don't take much from the last meeting as Wentz was still at North Dakota State, but the Packers blasted the Eagles 53-20 at Lambeau in Week 11 of the 2014 season. That was a stretch where Packers were playing their best football of the past two years. Rodgers passed for 341 yards and three touchdowns. Mark Sanchez was the Philly QB that day, and it being Mark Sanchez you can probably presume how he fared.


This one is tough. Obviously I lean Rodgers and the Packer offense over Wentz and Co. But the Eagles are unbeaten at home and their defense hasn't allowed more than 15 points there (9.6 per game compared to 24.6 on road) despite playing some high-powered offenses like the Steelers and Falcons. I'm going to take the four points, however. Rodgers usually shines on Monday night and has won his past two on MNF. Go under the total.

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Re: NFL Betting Info 11/28

Tech Trends - Week 12
By Bruce Marshall


Monday, Nov. 28


GREEN BAY at PHILADELPHIA (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Birds 4-0 SU and vs. line at home TY, also “under” all four of those games. Pack 3-8-1 vs. line last 12 reg.-season games, and “over” last three this season.
Tech Edge: Eagles, based on team trends.

[TheGame]

Re: NFL Betting Info 11/28

NFL


Week 12


Monday Night


Packers (4-6) @ Eagles (5-5)— Philly won/covered all four of its home games, winning by 14-31-11-9 points, but they’re 2-5 overall since a 3-0 start, averaging less than six yards/pass attempt in five of last six games. Green Bay lost its last four games, allowing 153 points, worst 4-game stretch for Packer defense since 1958 (year before Lombardi arrived). Pack lost its last four road games, by 3-1-22-18 points; this is also their third straight road game, a historically soft spot for NFL teams. Packers won four of last five series games, with last meeting a 53-20 beatdown at Lambeau in 2014- they won last two visits here, both in ‘10. NFC North non-divisional road dogs are 5-6 vs spread; NFC East home favorites are 7-2. Under is 4-0 in Eagle games this year; last four Green Bay games went over total.

[TheGame]

Re: NFL Betting Info 11/28

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




GREEN BAY vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Green Bay's last 8 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Green Bay is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing Green Bay




Green Bay at Philadelphia
Green Bay: 2-6 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game
Philadelphia: 4-0 ATS in home lined games

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Re: NFL Betting Info 11/28

MNF - Packers at Eagles
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com


Both the Packers and Eagles are sitting outside the NFC Wild Card race heading into December. The two NFC squads meet up in Philadelphia on Monday night looking to rebound from losses last week, as Green Bay is trying to end a four-game losing skid. The Eagles have been terrific at home by posting a 4-0 mark at Lincoln Financial Field, as they attempt to keep their home defensive domination going.


LAST WEEK


The Packers (4-6 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) lost not only their fourth consecutive game at Washington, but dropped to 1-4 away from Lambeau Field. The Redskins routed the Packers, 42-24 as three-point favorites as Green Bay allowed over 42 points for the second consecutive week. Washington outgained Green Bay, 515-424, even though Aaron Rodgers threw for 351 yards and three touchdowns in the defeat. Rodgers put up great fantasy numbers in the last two losses (351 vs. Washington and 371 vs. Tennessee), but the Packers’ defense has been carved up resulting in four straight OVERS.


The Eagles (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) continued their road struggles as well by falling at Seattle as 6½-point underdogs, 26-15. After Philadelphia took a 7-6 second quarter lead on a Carson Wentz touchdown pass to Zach Ertz, the Seahawks outscored the Eagles, 20-8 the rest of the way to send the Eagles to its fifth away loss of the season. Wentz has thrown four interceptions in his last two road losses to the Seahawks and Giants, while Philadelphia was limited to its fewest points in a game this season.


HOME COOKING


Philadelphia has struggled on the road in Wentz’s rookie season, but the Eagles are unbeaten at Lincoln Financial Field by posting a 4-0 SU/ATS record. In the four wins, the Eagles have allowed a total of 38 points, as Philadelphia has finished UNDER the total in each home contest. All four victories have come by at least nine points, while holding the Falcons to a season-low 15 points two weeks ago.


PACKING IT AWAY


Last season, the Packers won six of 10 games away from Lambeau Field. However, Green Bay hasn’t won a road game this season since a Week 1 triumph at Jacksonville, 27-23. The OVER has hit in four of five away contests for Green Bay, while allowing at least 23 points in four of five road games. The Packers have covered five of their last seven in the role of a road underdog since the 2014 NFC Championship game, but three of those ATS wins came in the playoffs.


SERIES HISTORY


From 2003 through 2014, the Eagles and Packers hooked up 10 times as Philadelphia captured six matchups. These teams last met in November 2014 at Lambeau Field as the Packers routed the Eagles, 53-20 to cash easily as 4½-point favorites. Rodgers picked apart the Philadelphia defense for 341 yards and three touchdown passes, while wide receiver Jordy Nelson hauled in four passes for 109 yards and a touchdown. Green Bay is making its first trip to Lincoln Financial Field since the Wild Card round in the 2010 season. The Packers eliminated the Eagles, 21-16 as Rodgers tossed three touchdowns in their first playoff win en route to capturing Super Bowl XLV.


LINE MOVEMENT


The Las Vegas Westgate Superbook opened the Eagles as a three-point favorite, shaded to -120. That number has moved up with Philadelphia now laying 3½, while several offshore books, including 5Dimes and Sportsbook.ag has the Eagles listed as a four-point favorite. The total is floating all over the board with numbers between 47 and 48.


MONDAY NIGHT MEMORIES


The Packers have split their last four Monday night games, but are playing on the road on a Monday for the first time since 2012. Many football fans will remember that controversial finish when Green Bay lost on the Hail Mary pass at Seattle, 14-12 as three-point road favorites. The Eagles are playing their second Monday night game this season after routing the Bears in Week 2 by a 29-14 count. Philadelphia has won five of its past six Monday nighters since 2013, including a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS record at Lincoln Financial Field.


KEY TREND


VegasInsider.com handicapper Vince Akins provides a trend that favors the Packers on Monday. According to Akins, the Eagles are 0-13 ATS (-7.85 ppg) since 2011 as a favorite of less than six points when facing a team averaging less than 25 rushes per game. Green Bay has carried the ball 19 times or fewer in each of the last four games.


PROPS


Green Bay


A. Rodgers – Gross Passing Yards
285½ - OVER (-110)
285½ - UNDER (-110)


A. Rodgers – Total Touchdown Passes
2 – OVER (EVEN)
2 – UNDER (-120)


J. Nelson – Will he score a touchdown?
YES -145
NO +125


Philadelphia


C. Wentz – Total Completions
23½ - OVER (-110)
23½ - UNDER (-110)


C. Wentz – Total Touchdown Passes
1½ - OVER (-130)
1½ - UNDER (+110)


J. Matthews – Total Receiving Yards
66½ - OVER (-110)
66½ - UNDER (-110)