Super Bowl Betting Info.

[NYK]

Re: Super Bowl Betting Info.

2015-16 Panthers



Leading at Half Time

14-0 SU
12-2 ATS
9-5 O/U


Not Leading at Half Time

2-0 SU
1-1 ATS
2-0 O/U


Tied at Half Time

1-1 SU
0-2 ATS
1-1 O/U

[NYK]

Re: Super Bowl Betting Info.

2015-16 Broncos



Leading at Half Time

9-2 SU
5-4-2 ATS
3-7-1 O/U


Not Leading at Half Time

4-2 SU
2-3-1 ATS
2-3-1 O/U


Tied at Half Time

1-0 SU
1-0 ATS
1-0 O/U



Note: In the last eight Super Bowls the team leading at half time has only won the second half once.

[NYK]

Re: Super Bowl Betting Info.

End of Third Quarter


Super Bowl History


The team leading at the end of the third quarter has won 81 percent of the time.

Only once has a team leading by more than 7 at the end of the third lost the game (SEA last year).

Teams leading by 7-points or more at the end of the third quarter are 32-3.

Teams leading by 3-points or less at the end of the third quarter have NEVER won the Super Bowl.

Teams leading by more than 3-points at the end of the third quarter are 39-5.

[NYK]

Re: Super Bowl Betting Info.

2015-16 Panthers



Leading at End of 3rd Quarter

16-0 SU
12-4 ATS
11-5 O/U


Not Leading at End of 3rd Quarter

1-1 SU
1-1 ATS
1-1 O/U

[NYK]

Re: Super Bowl Betting Info.

2015-16 Broncos



Leading at End of 3rd Quarter

10-2 SU
6-4-2 ATS
3-8-1 O/U


Not Leading at End of 3rd Quarter

3-1 SU
1-2-1 ATS
1-2-1 O/U


Tied at End of 3rd Quarter

1-1 SU
1-1 ATS
2-0 O/U



Note: The score has only been tied at the end of the third quarter in one Super Bowl game.

[NYK]

Re: Super Bowl Betting Info.

No million-dollar Super Bowl bets yet at MGM Resorts Intl.


Three big six-figure bets. Two of them on the Panthers.

[NYK]

Re: Super Bowl Betting Info.

Carolina is still -5.5 at 13 of 14 Vegas books ...


lone exception at Treasure Island with Carolina -5 (-125)

[NYK]

Re: Super Bowl Betting Info.

Super Bowl favorites of 7 or less since 1982 season (SB XVII)

6-14-1 ATS
11-10 straight up

[NYK]

Re: Super Bowl Betting Info.

Panthers scored TD on 68% of red-zone drives during reg season.

Only Lions (69%) had higher percentage.

[NYK]

Re: Super Bowl Betting Info.

Team records when playing on CBS this season:


Panthers - 3-0 SU ... 3-0 ATS

Broncos - 9-4 SU ... 5-5-3 ATS

[NYK]

Re: Super Bowl Betting Info.

Broncos are 12th team to reach Super Bowl after leading NFL in total defense in regular season.

Those teams are 9-2 in the Super Bowl.

[NYK]

Re: Super Bowl Betting Info.

Super Bowl 50 Betting Update



This is when the real Super Bowl fun happens for Las Vegas sports books as 75 percent of their overall wagers are expected to occur from Friday through kickoff. They’ve got a great sample size of who the public likes so far with Carolina getting the majority of the action, but with over 200,000 visitors in town for the game this weekend, the critical action that will determine what side and total they really need begins now.

The airplanes will be flying into McCarron International Airport one after another every two minutes over the next three days like a well oiled assembly line and each of those buses will be loaded with Super Bowl cash ready to fire away. It’s the perfect mix of bettors who wager only once a year, along with the serious bettor looking for the ultimate wagering experience with all the props and big crowds, and then there are the whales who are ready to throw down seven figures.

No million dollar wagers have been reported yet, but chances are that MGM Resorts and the Wynn will have a couple which will obviously swing the balance of who they'll need.

So if we estimate that only 25 percent of the wagers have been placed, does the small sample size correlate to what we’ll see over the next three days? The early action was all on Carolina and while most books have reported that things have flattened out with plenty of Denver support over the last week, William Hill’s 104 sports books in Nevada reported Thursday night that 91 percent of all their cash wagers on the spread still have come on the Panthers.

MGM Resorts are still in a position to be needing Denver after getting early Carolina money like everyone else, but since moving Carolina to -5.5 -115 on Tuesday, sports book hub manager Jeff Stoneback says betting patterns have changed.

“Things really started to get busy last night (Thursday) and at our current number we’ve got a little more than 3-to-2 action on the Broncos (cash taken in), and the ticket counts have been almost dead even. The next 10 tickets we write on Denver will make us exactly 50-50 since moving the number.”

There’s also been a move on the total from 45 down to 44.5 at MGM books, the Wynn and CG Technology. Stoneback said they took a six-figure wager on the UNDER Wednesday night forcing the move. As of Friday morning, the best case scenario for MGM is a combination of Denver covering and the game going OVER.


Money-line dropping

The best underdog money-line in town is at the MGM books at -240/+200, which is equivalent to a normal 5-point spread for a home team during the regular season. But with most of the money-line action coming on Denver, other books have been dropping the number lower and lower getting closer to what we normally see in the Super Bowl where the number is far less than what the spread suggests it should be. CG Technology and the South Point are both at -210/+180, which is an advantageous price for laying a 5.5-point favorite. As that 85 percent more of action is expected over the next three days, you can expect the Panthers price to drop even more as risk builds with the public as they always take the dog price -- whatever it is. If looking to play the Panthers, play the money-line and wait for -200 or lower instead of laying the inflated point spread. That’s just my opinion on getting the best of the value.


Props handle massive at Westgate

Jay Kornegay at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook says with the action he’s taken so far on Super Bowl proposition wagering that he expects 60 percent of his overall Super Bowl handle to come on them this year, which is a huge jump from last season. The Westgate has been steady at about 50 percent over the past few years. Most other Las Vegas books are in the 35-to-40 percent range. The benefit of the props for the books is that they don’t get stuck to the day if their worst case scenario occurs in the game, like Carolina to OVER would be on Sunday. They can absorb the worst decision much better than was the case just a decade ago.


Atlantis Reno back up to -6

After being at -6 for eight days, on Thursday Atlantis Reno dropped down to -5.5. But then on Friday morning they made the move back to -6 making them the only book in the state as high. Everyone is -5.5 in Las Vegas except for the Treasure Island


Who is Billy Walters playing?

Sharp money means very little in the overall Super Bowl wagering pool because there’s just so many small wagers that can do more damage collectively, but you always like to know who the most publicized and successful sharp bettor in Las Vegas is taking. Word on the street is that it was Walters and his many associates that were scrambling at all the books to get as much +6 Broncos action as they could around town. If it were a regular season game the line would be -4.5 already with him on board, but the public’s money dictates the pace for this game. A few books were relieved that money came when it did because going to -6.5 was likely to happen within the next day or two.


New Bet Shop on the Strip

William Hill is opened its 105th book in Nevada Friday at the Casino Royale -- across from the street from the Mirage -- which will be its first book on the strip since the Riviera shut down last year. This gives all the visitors in town another option on the strip besides Caesars, MGM and CG Technology lines, and it’s a great option because they deal probably one of the fairest odds (low theoretic future hold percentages, and 20 cent splits on props) in town along with the Westgate SuperBook and South Point. Even before the new book, the Casino Royale was always one of my favorite places on the strip just because of $1 Michelob’s, which is about $7 less than their competition‘s domestic beers. The property certainly isn’t as glamorous as its neighbors, but the price is always right. Who knew Michelob, my dad’s beer, was still being made?

[NYK]

Re: Super Bowl Betting Info.

Best record since Week 14 of 2014 (incl. playoffs)


Panthers 22-2 .917
Patriots 19-6 .760
Broncos 17-6 .739

[NYK]

Re: Super Bowl Betting Info.

Panthers coach Ron Rivera says DE Jared Allen and LB Thomas Davis will start Sunday.

No issues with their injuries.

[NYK]

Re: Super Bowl Betting Info.

NFL Playoff Trends



<50% of spread bets: 71-67 ATS

Dogs, <50% of spread bets: 43-35 ATS

Dogs of 4+, <50% of spread bets: 31-16 ATS