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  • #61
    LSU is 16-0 ou against defenses that allow <28ppg

    12-4-0 (14.31, 75.0%)
    11-5-0 (7.38, 68.8%) avg line: -6.9 +6: 12-4-0 (75.0%) -6: 8-8-0 (50.0%) +10: 13-3-0 (81.2%) -10: 8-8-0 (50.0%)
    16-0-0 (13.03, 100.0%) avg total: 58.2 +6: 10-5-1 (66.7%) -6: 16-0-0 (100.0%) +10: 7-8-1 (46.7%) -10: 16-0-0 (100.0%)
    34.5 207.4 32.1 317.4 22.1 0.8 7.6 12.7 10.9 11.1 42.8
    36.6 165.5 32.5 239.2 19.2 1.0 7.2 8.0 4.2 8.5 28.4
    Jan 01, 2024 box Monday 18 2023 LSU WIS neutral -8.5 57.5

    Comment


    • #62
      Big 10 vs SEC

      SEC is 4-1 SU in playoffs vs Big 10 and 32-16 SU in bowl games since 2006

      Big 10 have been better as a 5.5+ dog though covering 9/18 games and winning 7 of them at an avg line of +8 (LSU and TEN games today)

      Comment


      • #63
        bowl games with huge spreads not kind to the underdog with avg score 52-13. only once has the favorite not scored at least 48

        game type = BG and line>16 and date>20161220
        0-6-0 (-39.17, 0.0%)
        0-6-0 (-19.17, 0.0%) avg line: 20.0 +6: 0-5-1 (0.0%) -6: 0-6-0 (0.0%) +10: 2-4-0 (33.3%) -10: 0-6-0 (0.0%)
        4-2-0 (8.25, 66.7%) avg total: 57.2 +6: 4-2-0 (66.7%) -6: 4-2-0 (66.7%) +10: 4-2-0 (66.7%) -10: 5-1-0 (83.3%)
        37.8 145.7 29.8 167.5 14.8 1.8 1.2 5.5 4.2 2.3 13.2
        44.0 303.2 28.7 252.0 17.5 1.0 13.3 16.7 13.5 8.8 52.3
        Jan 01, 2024 box Monday 18 2023 LIB ORE neutral 18.0 68.5
        Dec 30, 2023 box Saturday 18 2023 FLST GEO neutral 0-7 3-35 0-14 0-7 3-63 23.5 47.5 -60 -36.5 18.5 -9.0 27.5 L L O 0
        Dec 23, 2023 box Saturday 17 2023 EMCH SALA neutral 0-17 3-21 0-21 7-0 10-59 17.5 42.5 -49 -31.5 26.5 -2.5 29.0 L L O 0
        Dec 31, 2021 box Friday 18 2021 RUT WAKE neutral 7-14 3-6 0-3 0-15 10-38 17.0 63.0 -28 -11.0 -15.0 -13.0 -2.0 L L U 0
        Dec 21, 2020 box Monday 16 2020 NTX APP neutral 0-14 14-21 7-7 7-14 28-56 21.5 68.0 -28 -6.5 16.0 4.8 11.2 L L O 0
        Dec 23, 2019 Monday 17 2019 MRSH CFL neutral 0-21 7-3 18-21 0-3 25-48 17.0 60.5 -23 -6.0 12.5 3.2 9.2 L L O 0
        Dec 19, 2017 Tuesday 17 2017 AKRON FATL away 0-7 3-14 0-15 0-14 3-50 23.5 62.0 -47 -23.5 -9.0 -16.2 7.2 L L U 0

        Comment


        • #64
          playoffs
          favorite
          p: margin 20-29
          total >= 57

          5-0 o/u (20.70)

          lone overtime game was over by 28 in regulation

          2 closest side/total matches were the biggest overs in the sample


          https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++



          texas over 62


          _______________________________________________
          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

          Comment


          • #65
            team = ALA and week >=14 and po:points >=13 and line >=-4 and total <=50

            5-0 (18.60)

            smallest 12


            https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++



            bama +2
            _______________________________________________
            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

            Comment


            • #66
              Originally posted by bleeker View Post
              team = ALA and week >=14 and po:points >=13 and line >=-4 and total <=50

              5-0 (18.60)

              smallest 12


              https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++



              bama +2
              dogs were the biggest margins
              _______________________________________________
              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

              Comment


              • #67
                championship game
                favorite
                p:less penalties than (today's) opp
                total >= 53

                4-0 (21.6)

                mich has 3 less penalties (biggest margins)


                https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++



                mich -4.5


                final pick will be boldface




                .
                _______________________________________________
                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                Comment


                • #68
                  rewrite to push this to 10-0 ATS

                  game type = PO and rest<25 and p:penalties<op:penalties and total>47
                  8-2-0 (18.50, 80.0%)
                  10-0-0 (18.30, 100.0%) avg line: -0.2 +6: 10-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 8-2-0 (80.0%) +10: 10-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 8-2-0 (80.0%)
                  6-4-0 (4.30, 60.0%) avg total: 63.2 +6: 4-6-0 (40.0%) -6: 8-2-0 (80.0%) +10: 4-6-0 (40.0%) -10: 8-2-0 (80.0%)
                  39.3 168.6 38.0 356.1 26.1 1.1 9.4 14.2 8.2 11.2 43.0
                  32.0 121.0 34.2 261.7 20.3 1.0 7.9 6.0 5.6 5.0 24.5
                  Jan 08, 2024 box Monday 19 2023 MICH WAS neutral -4.5 56.5

                  Comment


                  • #69
                    nice rt ..good subset of that if you go dogs <=6 or favorites

                    https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++


                    if you add total <= 66 (big gap 61.5/67.5)it includes the 2 monster covers ..those 3 cover by an average of 30 and the average line and total is close to tonight's
                    _______________________________________________
                    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      that makes it final for me

                      mich -4.5
                      _______________________________________________
                      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        mich had 3 less penalties (-3)


                        3-0 (32.17)


                        https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++





                        _______________________________________________
                        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                        Comment


                        • #72
                          Great work on Mich-, guys...

                          Comment

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