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  • #1

    SDQL Bowls

    early bowl systems

    62-111 ou = OHIO/GASO under, UTSA/MARSH under
    5-22 ou = UTSA/MARSH under, USF/SYR under
    7-33 ou - SYR/USF under

    29-4 = MIA OH
    93-44 = OHIO, WKY
    41-15 = BOISE
    59-19 = OHIO
    14-2 = SYR
    38-16 = BOISE
    54-20 = NMST, OLDD
    65-27 = ULLAF, MARSH
    15-0 = MARSH
    28-6 = OLDD
    41-9 = BOISE
    31-3 = TXTCH, BOISE
    26-5 = ULLAF, CAL, OLDD, SYR, GT

    many for ULLAF over too
    Tags: None
  • #2

    Comment

    • #3
      rewrite on bleeker's still huge margins

      week < 18 and game type = BG and line < 3 and -1 < op:turnover margin < 2 and (day = Tuesday or day = Saturday) and op:points > 15 and season > 2016 and conference!= AAC
      10-0-0 (23.90, 100.0%)
      10-0-0 (19.25, 100.0%) avg line: -4.7 +6: 10-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 9-0-1 (100.0%) +10: 10-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 9-1-0 (90.0%)
      6-4-0 (8.20, 60.0%) avg total: 54.1 +6: 6-4-0 (60.0%) -6: 8-2-0 (80.0%) +10: 4-6-0 (40.0%) -10: 9-1-0 (90.0%)
      39.8 194.9 31.2 227.4 19.6 2.2 9.5 13.9 13.1 6.6 43.1
      37.8 139.7 29.9 275.4 17.3 1.9 5.5 5.9 4.4 3.4 19.2
      Dec 23, 2023 box Saturday 17 2023 NIL AKST neutral 1.0 53.5
      Dec 23, 2023 box Saturday 17 2023 TROY DUKE neutral -8.5 44.5
      Dec 16, 2023 box Saturday 16 2023 NMST FRES neutral -3.5 51.5

      Comment

      • #4
        teams in bowl game or conf champ game after losing by 45+ are 12-1ATS

        7-6-0 (6.85, 53.8%)
        12-1-0 (12.96, 92.3%) avg line: 6.1 +6: 12-1-0 (92.3%) -6: 10-3-0 (76.9%) +10: 13-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 6-7-0 (46.2%)
        5-1-1 (9.21, 83.3%) avg total: 60.5 +6: 5-2-0 (71.4%) -6: 6-1-0 (85.7%) +10: 4-3-0 (57.1%) -10: 6-1-0 (85.7%)
        39.0 206.7 34.1 257.7 20.3 2.3 7.7 7.9 8.4 12.4 36.5
        40.3 194.9 33.9 248.3 21.3 1.6 12.4 9.9 5.3 4.3 29.6
        Dec 16, 2023 box Saturday 16 2023 TXT CAL neutral -3.5 57.5

        Comment

        • #5
          christmas or before
          bowl games
          dog >=11
          p: not neutral field
          o: away exactly 1 gm prior
          po: points <=31
          2010

          4-0 o/u (27.75)

          no overtimes
          not playing other ..total too low
          smallest over 15


          https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++



          marshall over 52


          Last edited by bleeker; 12-18-2023, 05:38 PM.
          _______________________________________________
          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

          Comment

          • #6
            int(str(date) [4 :]) = 1223 and day =Saturday and H and line >-4


            saturday
            12/23
            home
            favorite <4

            0-7 (-14.79)

            holds little to no weight with me but figured I'd put it up..obviously limited amount of opportunities a saturday game will be 2 games before christmas.. 3 were in 1989 with 2 of them being shutouts (0-37/0-29)..most recent in 2017 also a shutout 0-16..the big dog is out of range and wouldn't even be a secondary reason for me .. positive is line and total for cin/pit fairly close to the avg


            https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++


            cin -2


            reminder commitments will be boldface

            Last edited by bleeker; 12-19-2023, 12:07 PM.
            _______________________________________________
            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

            Comment

            • #7
              Originally posted by bleeker View Post
              int(str(date) [4 :]) = 1223 and day =Saturday and H and line >-4


              saturday
              12/23
              home
              favorite <4

              0-7 (-14.79)

              holds little to no weight with me but figured I'd put it up..obviously limited amount of opportunities a saturday game will be 2 games before christmas.. 3 were in 1989 with 2 of them being shutouts (0-37/0-29)..most recent in 2017 also a shutout 0-16..the big dog is out of range and wouldn't even be a secondary reason for me .. positive is line and total for cin/pit fairly close to this one


              https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++


              cin -2


              reminder commitments will be boldface

              wrong thread..sorry
              _______________________________________________
              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

              Comment

              • #8
                bowl game
                christmas or before
                friday
                fav >=3
                win streak <=1 or losing streak
                previous opp score half <=19
                total >=52
                2005


                6-0 o/u (17.58)

                all double digit (smallest 14.5)
                1 overtime (3 pts)


                https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++




                ucf over 67.5







                _______________________________________________
                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                Comment

                • #9
                  Originally posted by bleeker View Post
                  bowl game
                  christmas or before
                  friday
                  fav >=3
                  win streak <=1 or losing streak
                  previous opp score half <=19
                  total >=52
                  2005


                  6-0 o/u (17.58)

                  all double digit (smallest 14.5)
                  1 overtime (3 pts)


                  https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++




                  ucf over 67.5






                  this requires month =12 to be correct..otherwise it only excludes 12/26 -31
                  which leaves only 2 of the 6 games remaining

                  not a play..sorry


                  https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

                  Last edited by bleeker; 12-22-2023, 02:02 PM.
                  _______________________________________________
                  ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Bowls 12/22 through new year

                    totals:
                    4-21 ou CLEM/UK under
                    2-23 ou = CLEM/UK u, ND/ORST u, IST/MEM u, OSU/MIZ u x2
                    4-38 ou = WYO/TOL u, PSU/MISS u
                    13-39 ou = SMU/BC u, OU/ARI u, LSU/WIS u
                    4-26 ou = UNC/WVU u, OKST/aTm u, OU/ARI u
                    7-34 ou = UNC/WVU u, OU/ARI u
                    5-26 ou = GST/UTST u
                    10-33 ou = SoBama/EMU u, CSTC/SJS u, OKST/aTm u

                    sides ATS:
                    29-5 = TOL
                    28-7 = GaSt
                    68-27 = GaSt, CSTC, UNLV, UNC, aTm
                    33-7 = Troy
                    30-6 = BGSU
                    33-10 = UTAH, MIN, WYO
                    29-4 = UTAH, WYO
                    11-1 = AFA
                    23-4 = LVILLE, OU, LIB
                    32-4 = OU, LIB, NDU
                    10-1 = Troy
                    33-1 = EMU, NCST
                    43-22 = BGSU
                    14-3 = LVILLE

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Pac 12 bowl teams off loss and non-cover have failed to cover every BG for 8 years, winning just 2 of 16 SU

                      game type = BG and conference = P12 and p:L and 0 > p:ats margin > -35.5 and date>20151226

                      2-14-0 (-12.25, 12.5%)
                      0-16-0 (-14.00, 0.0%) avg line: -1.8 +6: 4-11-1 (26.7%) -6: 0-16-0 (0.0%) +10: 7-9-0 (43.8%) -10: 0-16-0 (0.0%)
                      6-10-0 (-6.12, 37.5%) avg total: 59.1 +6: 5-11-0 (31.2%) -6: 7-8-1 (46.7%) +10: 4-12-0 (25.0%) -10: 9-7-0 (56.2%)
                      38.4 165.0 31.8 222.0 19.6 1.6 4.5 5.3 4.5 6.1 20.4
                      31.7 136.3 31.9 257.3 20.4 1.2 3.4 11.4 10.7 6.9 32.6
                      Jan 01, 2024 box Monday 18 2023 ORE LIB neutral -17.5 67.5
                      Dec 29, 2023 box Friday 18 2023 ORST NOTD neutral 6.5 41.5
                      Dec 27, 2023 box Wednesday 18 2023 USC LOU neutral 7.5 57.5

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        MAC bowlers in similar spot as P12 above (against Toledo) with just 3 covers and 2 wins in 20 games

                        game type = BG and conference = MAC and p:L and -2 > p:ats margin > -22.5 and date>20041222 and o:rest>16

                        2-20-0 (-13.68, 9.1%)
                        3-17-2 (-10.57, 15.0%) avg line: 3.1 +6: 8-13-1 (38.1%) -6: 2-20-0 (9.1%) +10: 10-11-1 (47.6%) -10: 1-21-0 (4.5%)
                        12-8-1 (4.24, 60.0%) avg total: 55.0 +6: 9-12-0 (42.9%) -6: 15-6-0 (71.4%) +10: 8-13-0 (38.1%) -10: 17-3-1 (85.0%)
                        32.6 125.2 35.9 251.1 19.9 1.9 4.9 6.0 3.5 8.0 22.1
                        39.0 181.0 32.1 241.8 19.7 1.0 7.9 12.1 8.6 7.8 35.8
                        Dec 30, 2023 box Saturday 18 2023 TOL WYO neutral 3.5 44.5

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Bowl teams not 7+ dogs off b2b wins but last one with few points are 0-10, with crazy loss margins, facing a team not off a DD loss

                          game type = BG and line<7.5 and streak>1 and p:points<17 and pP:margin<5 and op:margin>-11

                          UK in a blowout?
                          0-10-0 (-17.60, 0.0%)
                          0-10-0 (-19.00, 0.0%) avg line: -1.4 +6: 1-9-0 (10.0%) -6: 0-10-0 (0.0%) +10: 1-9-0 (10.0%) -10: 0-10-0 (0.0%)
                          2-1-0 (7.17, 66.7%) avg total: 51.2 +6: 2-1-0 (66.7%) -6: 2-1-0 (66.7%) +10: 2-1-0 (66.7%) -10: 2-1-0 (66.7%)
                          34.3 147.7 41.0 212.0 19.3 3.3 6.3 3.3 5.7 7.3 17.3
                          38.7 152.3 33.3 243.0 19.3 1.0 4.3 12.3 5.7 13.3 34.9
                          Dec 29, 2023 box Friday 18 2023 CLEM KTKY neutral -4.5 46.5

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            Pac 12 not off a huge loss vs opponent off a win

                            10-22-0 (-5.97, 31.2%)
                            4-27-1 (-7.14, 12.9%) avg line: -1.2 +6: 16-15-1 (51.6%) -6: 2-30-0 (6.2%) +10: 20-12-0 (62.5%) -10: 1-30-1 (3.2%)
                            15-17-0 (-0.23, 46.9%) avg total: 58.6 +6: 12-20-0 (37.5%) -6: 21-10-1 (67.7%) +10: 10-22-0 (31.2%) -10: 24-8-0 (75.0%)
                            35.5 137.7 36.0 255.3 21.6 1.7 6.0 8.3 5.2 6.3 26.2
                            36.8 157.6 32.3 247.6 19.4 1.7 5.8 9.6 8.3 7.9 32.2
                            Jan 01, 2024 box Monday 18 2023 ORE LIB neutral -17.5 67.5
                            Dec 29, 2023 box Friday 18 2023 ORST NOTD neutral 6.5 41.5
                            Dec 28, 2023 box Thursday 18 2023 ARZ OKLA neutral -2.5 62.5
                            Dec 23, 2023 box Saturday 17 2023 UTAH NORW neutral -6.5 41.5

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              Bama as dog or tiny fav vs unbeaten opponent
                              team=ALA and line>-2.5 and o:losses=0 and season>1993
                              12-7-0 (6.47, 63.2%)
                              17-1-1 (13.03, 94.4%) avg line: 6.6 +6: 19-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 12-7-0 (63.2%) +10: 19-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 9-10-0 (47.4%)
                              4-4-0 (2.75, 50.0%) avg total: 45.5 +6: 2-6-0 (25.0%) -6: 7-1-0 (87.5%) +10: 2-6-0 (25.0%) -10: 7-1-0 (87.5%)
                              36.4 128.9 28.1 238.6 17.4 1.0 4.4 12.8 5.5 5.2 28.5
                              29.9 116.1 31.8 205.0 19.1 1.8 3.2 5.5 4.4 7.2 22.1
                              Jan 01, 2024 box Monday 18 2023 ALA MICH neutral 2.0 44.5

                              Comment

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