SDQL week 10

[rolltide]

1) this one is up again after going 2-1 last week. teams that don't score 13+ combined in L2 games are 23-3 over when facing an opponent that doesn't have an elite defense and team isn't >15 point dog (Mich State over 34.5)

a little more support for over 34.5 ... Mich St 12-0 ou at home off a conference game L3 years with games avg 61 points. previous lowest total was 40.5 so this is the lowest by a full TD....

team = MCST and H and p:C and date>20201115

8-4-0 (-2.83, 66.7%) 6-5-1 (-0.25, 54.5%) avg line: 2.6 +6: 9-3-0 (75.0%) -6: 6-6-0 (50.0%) +10: 9-3-0 (75.0%) -10: 2-10-0 (16.7%) 12-0-0 (8.71, 100.0%) avg total: 52.5 +6: 6-6-0 (50.0%) -6: 12-0-0 (100.0%) +10: 4-8-0 (33.3%) -10: 12-0-0 (100.0%) 37.4 159.7 31.2 243.3 19.4 1.3 8.0 9.5 4.9 5.7 29.2 37.3 159.8 35.3 270.6 22.6 1.2 7.5 9.1 8.0 6.2 32.0 Nov 04, 2023 box Saturday 10 2023 MCST NEB home 3.0 34.5

[rolltide]

UAB has gone over by huge margins at home after a conference game they didn't score >40 points. Avg of 71ppg

team = UAB and H and p:C and season>2020 and p:points<41

5-3-0 (7.88, 62.5%) 5-3-0 (1.06, 62.5%) avg line: -6.8 +6: 6-2-0 (75.0%) -6: 3-5-0 (37.5%) +10: 6-2-0 (75.0%) -10: 3-5-0 (37.5%) 8-0-0 (16.25, 100.0%) avg total: 54.6 +6: 5-3-0 (62.5%) -6: 8-0-0 (100.0%) +10: 4-4-0 (50.0%) -10: 8-0-0 (100.0%) 39.4 237.2 27.2 247.5 17.5 1.5 12.2 9.4 7.8 9.1 39.4 39.0 156.0 33.6 208.0 20.5 1.4 7.8 9.4 6.6 6.1 31.5 Nov 04, 2023 box Saturday 10 2023 UAB FATL home -0.0 59.5

[rolltide]

in past 2 years home teams ranked in top 15 are 13-1SU with no spread losses when small fav or dog vs top 25 team (on TEX, BAMA). narrower of a long-term trend: rank<15 and o:rank<=25 and H and -5<line<5.5 and date>20171001 and rest>5 and 2<week<14

rank<=15 and o:rank<=25 and H and -5<line<5 and date>20211101

13-1-0 (8.79, 92.9%) 11-0-3 (6.39, 100.0%) avg line: -2.4 +6: 14-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 7-7-0 (50.0%) +10: 14-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 3-11-0 (21.4%) 7-7-0 (-4.21, 50.0%) avg total: 56.3 +6: 5-9-0 (35.7%) -6: 7-7-0 (50.0%) +10: 4-10-0 (28.6%) -10: 9-5-0 (64.3%) 39.5 158.8 30.4 240.1 18.4 1.2 8.5 7.4 6.2 8.3 30.4 31.6 122.7 38.2 248.5 21.9 1.9 2.6 7.3 5.1 6.6 21.6 Nov 04, 2023 box Saturday 10 2023 ALA LSU home -3.5 61.5 Nov 04, 2023 box Saturday 10 2023 TEX KAST home -3.5 49.5

[BT]

Great stuff as usual, rt!! I had BC under last night too. Wish I saw your data beforehand - I would’ve increased my bet! :) Might have to try some of these others out today. Roll Tide!!

[rolltide]

Away favs after 1st loss as an away fav when they were at least 5-0 are 0-10 ATS facing a team with WP>30%

= Oppose Oklahoma