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SDQL week 10

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  • #1

    SDQL week 10

    1) this one is up again after going 2-1 last week. teams that don't score 13+ combined in L2 games are 23-3 over when facing an opponent that doesn't have an elite defense and team isn't >15 point dog (Mich State over 34.5)

    2) Rice conf home dog off a spread win by 5 or more (22-0 = on RICE) team = RICE and p:ats margin>4.5 and HD and season>1990

    3) Game 7+ on normal or extra rest after losing to unbeaten team but covering by 9+ = 0-20 (oppose Old Dominion, Mid Tenn St)
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Thanks !!!!!!!!

    Comment

    • #3

      TOTALS:
      62-21 ou = USC/WAS over
      39-8 ou = USC/WAS over
      25-4 ou = MST/NEB over
      85-154 ou = MARS/APP under
      20-51 ou = MIZ/UGA under
      2-20 ou = AFA/ARMY under
      350-568 ou = GT/UVA under, OKST/OU under, VT/LVILLE under
      17-50 ou = VT/LVILLE under
      489-714 ou = GT/UVA u, OKST/OU u, VT/LV u, LIB/LTCH u
      57-127 ou = TEM/NAV under, MARS/APP under
      18-50 ou = BC/SYR under

      ATS:
      41-20 = on NEV
      20-0 = on CSTC, on NMST
      207-110 = on FSU
      38-12 = on ND
      49-16 = on OKST
      21-3 = on PST
      39-9 = on JVST
      236-63 = on WAKE, COLST, AZST
      33-5 = on UGA, MICH
      113-46 = on SoBama
      65-20 = on NEB, NWSTRN
      75-38 = on CLEM, UVA, LVILLE, NCST
      54-17 = on BC
      53-21 = on OREG
      23-3 = on OREG, UCLA
      22-0 = on RICE
      • 1 like

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      • #4
        Good info!

        Comment

        • #5
          close to game time but started looking late



          https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++


          tex tech under 59
          _______________________________________________
          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

          Comment

          • #6
            Originally posted by bleeker View Post
            close to game time but started looking late



            https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++


            tex tech under 59
            week 9-12
            thursday
            home fav <=4
            less wins than opponent
            opponent not on a >= 3 game losing streak
            total <=63


            0-8 o/u (-11.38)
            _______________________________________________
            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

            Comment

            • #7
              Originally posted by bleeker View Post

              week 9-12
              thursday
              home fav <=4
              less wins than opponent
              opponent not on a >= 3 game losing streak
              total <=63


              0-8 o/u (-11.38)
              reworking this one shows for tomorrow. unable to get the TT game in before KO

              7 < week < 13 and H and line < -1.5 and (day = Thursday or day = Friday) and wins < o:wins and o:streak > -3 and line != -5
              16-14-0 (3.87, 53.3%)
              14-16-0 (-0.82, 46.7%) avg line: -4.7 +6: 18-11-1 (62.1%) -6: 11-19-0 (36.7%) +10: 20-10-0 (66.7%) -10: 9-21-0 (30.0%)
              1-21-0 (-10.39, 4.5%) avg total: 54.8 +6: 1-21-0 (4.5%) -6: 4-17-1 (19.0%) +10: 1-21-0 (4.5%) -10: 10-10-2 (50.0%)
              39.0 178.4 30.0 197.9 18.0 1.7 6.5 9.0 6.0 3.4 23.9
              34.0 121.0 35.5 236.5 19.8 1.7 3.4 6.5 4.7 5.0 20.0
              Nov 03, 2023 box Friday 10 2023 SYR BCOL home -3.0 50.5
              Nov 02, 2023 box Thursday 10 2023 TXT TCU home -2.5 59.5

              Comment

              • #8
                nice rolltide
                _______________________________________________
                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                Comment

                • #9



                  week 7-13 (rolltide)
                  thu or fri*(rolltide*)
                  favorite between 2 and 3.5
                  less wins than opponent
                  opp hasn't lost >= 3 straight gms
                  p: weren't shutout at halftime
                  total <=66
                  2006

                  total within a point of the avg..like how this focuses on a strong segment of the bigger sample



                  0-10 o/u (-14.55) going into tonight ..1-10 o/u now


                  close loss tonight factoring 2 short field opportunities that resulted in TD's


                  https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++


                  syracuse under 51 (friday)
                  Last edited by bleeker; 11-02-2023, 10:21 PM.
                  _______________________________________________
                  ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                  Comment

                  • #10

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Chamblin View Post
                      thanks chamblin


                      when the opponent was the biggest dog (+5.5) in it's prior game it eliminates last night's loss plus 1 other..since we're going forward why not consider that

                      https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
                      _______________________________________________
                      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        bet against conference 2+ dogs on regular rest that just beat a top 23 team as a dog at home, opponent was not just on a 3-4 game win streak (oppose Arizona, Kansas, and Ga Tech)

                        C and not 2<op:streak<5 and p:DHW and po:rank < 24 and rest = 6 and line > 1.5 and date > 20101101 and 43<WP<100

                        1-37-0 (-24.08, 2.6%)
                        1-36-1 (-14.55, 2.7%) avg line: 9.5 +6: 7-30-1 (18.9%) -6: 1-37-0 (2.6%) +10: 15-23-0 (39.5%) -10: 1-37-0 (2.6%)
                        20-17-1 (2.29, 54.1%) avg total: 56.6 +6: 14-22-2 (38.9%) -6: 28-10-0 (73.7%) +10: 9-28-1 (24.3%) -10: 29-8-1 (78.4%)
                        32.6 110.9 34.7 213.1 19.1 2.0 3.2 4.2 5.6 4.5 17.4
                        45.6 252.4 26.9 236.3 17.9 1.2 10.3 13.0 8.3 9.9 41.5
                        Nov 04, 2023 box Saturday 10 2023 ARZ UCLA home 2.5 50.5
                        Nov 04, 2023 box Saturday 10 2023 KAN IWST away 2.5 53.5
                        Nov 04, 2023 box Saturday 10 2023 GTCH VIR away 2.5 56.5

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Thanks !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            Originally posted by rolltide View Post
                            bet against conference 2+ dogs on regular rest that just beat a top 23 team as a dog at home, opponent was not just on a 3-4 game win streak (oppose Arizona, Kansas, and Ga Tech)

                            C and not 2<op:streak<5 and p:DHW and po:rank < 24 and rest = 6 and line > 1.5 and date > 20101101 and 43<WP<100

                            made a little tweak so you don't have to watch line too hard. as long as they are a dog they are a play against

                            4-44-0 (-21.42, 8.3%)
                            2-45-1 (-13.91, 4.3%) avg line: 7.5 +6: 11-36-1 (23.4%) -6: 2-46-0 (4.2%) +10: 21-27-0 (43.8%) -10: 1-47-0 (2.1%)
                            23-24-1 (0.23, 48.9%) avg total: 56.3 +6: 16-30-2 (34.8%) -6: 31-17-0 (64.6%) +10: 11-36-1 (23.4%) -10: 32-15-1 (68.1%)
                            33.0 120.8 34.0 210.2 18.8 2.1 3.5 4.5 5.0 4.5 17.6
                            45.4 239.9 28.0 232.3 18.1 1.1 9.5 12.6 8.1 8.7 39.0
                            Nov 04, 2023 box Saturday 10 2023 ARZ UCLA home 2.5 50.5
                            Nov 04, 2023 box Saturday 10 2023 KAN IWST away 3.0 53.5
                            Nov 04, 2023 box Saturday 10 2023 GTCH VIR away 2.0 56.5

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              really is an amazing system factoring the avg margin and sample size..nice find !
                              _______________________________________________
                              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                              Comment

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