Tourney SDQL thread

[Chamblin]

[rolltide]

not SDQL related but interesting matchups discussed at action

LOSS Oakland play zone nearly 90% of the time, next closest is the tournament is <30%. They matched up with Kentucky who are 5th in the country in points per possession vs zone defenses.

WIN Tennessee is the best team in the tourney, and #3 in nation, when teams press them and happened to draw the team that presses the most in St Peters

WIN Marquette is top 5 tourney team at creating turnovers, WKU is bottom 5 in turning the ball over

TBD James Madison has the top 3pt defense in the tourney, Wisconsin has the worst

WIN Bama and Charleston both rank top 4 in the tournament in 3pt attempted per shot. That over will get shredded if these teams shoot at their normal 35-37% make rate

WIN Texas A&M posted the greatest offensive rebounding season in 8 years and gets Nebraska who are the worst team in the tournament allowing 10.6 offensive rebounds per game.

WIN UVA and Colorado State are #1-2 fewest attempts at a transition offense. pair that up with UVA top 10 in opponent FT % and bottom 10 in team FT % and that will stay u120 without tremendous half court shooting %

check out actionsports, tons of great info for free

[Chamblin]

[Thomas]

Good thread RT. Gonna throw this out here, hope you don't mind:

Teams ranked 13 who won their round 1 game su as a dog are 0-7 suats in the round of 32

Play against Yale

tS(tournament=NCAA,N=6) = 1 and tournament = NCAA and rank = 13 and p:DW and season>2012



1a.jpg

Check out the margins which avg 19.29 points a game

https://killersports.com/ncaabb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

[rolltide]

Good thread RT. Gonna throw this out here, hope you don't mind:

Teams ranked 13 who won their round 1 game su as a dog are 0-7 suats in the round of 32

Play against Yale

tS(tournament=NCAA,N=6) = 1 and tournament = NCAA and rank = 13 and p:DW and season>2012



1a.jpg

Check out the margins which avg 19.29 points a game

https://killersports.com/ncaabb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

very nice

add in a couple of other seeds and you can pop up more games

https://killersports.com/ncaabb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

0-17 (-15.59, 0.0%) 1-16-0 (-11.03, 5.9%) avg line: 4.6 10-6-1 (4.65, 62.5%) avg total: 139.6 23.53 39.6 10.18 75.9 7.12 31.1 2.59 11.00 29.88 17.35 12.76 10.24 29.3 35.1 64.4 28.76 51.7 14.18 78.2 8.24 40.9 3.53 10.06 35.59 15.06 14.71 10.94 39.1 40.9 79.9 Mar 24, 2024 Sun 2023 YALE SDSU neutral 1&1 5.5 128.5 Mar 23, 2024 Sat 2023 OAK NCST neutral 1&1 5.5 146.5 Mar 23, 2024 Sat 2023 DAY ARZ neutral 1&1 8.5 149.5

[rolltide]

big fav, bad defense = play against Illini

tournament=NCAA and line<-8.5 and o:streak>1 and tA(o:points)>71.04 and tA(points)>80.6

14-5 (8.42, 73.7%) 2-17-0 (-6.95, 10.5%) avg line: -15.4 7-12-0 (-2.18, 36.8%) avg total: 155.7 29.26 48.1 15.53 70.4 6.89 32.3 5.16 10.74 40.53 16.11 16.16 11.37 38.5 42.4 80.9 26.53 41.3 11.16 74.4 8.32 32.5 2.05 10.05 34.11 18.53 12.26 10.53 34.6 37.9 72.5 Mar 23, 2024 Sat 2023 ILL DUQ neutral 1&1 -10.5 147.5

[Thomas]

[QUOTEvery nice

add in a couple of other seeds and you can pop up more games

https://killersports.com/ncaabb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++][/QUOTE]

indeed ! nice addition

On a 11-0 ats run since '17 as well

[rolltide]

Wolfpack been very strong off a Dog win

team=NCST and p:DW and season>2021 and total<152

8-0 (14.12, 100.0%) 8-0-0 (13.75, 100.0%) avg line: -0.4 4-3-1 (4.38, 57.1%) avg total: 143.2 28.88 48.9 16.75 74.0 6.38 37.2 4.25 9.75 36.62 14.25 11.88 8.75 37.1 41.9 80.9 25.12 41.3 10.25 69.5 6.25 28.6 2.88 10.38 33.38 18.62 14.12 11.25 28.8 37.1 66.8 Mar 23, 2024 Sat 2023 NCST OAK neutral 1&1 -5.5 146.5

[stoopid]

big fav, bad defense = play against Illini

tournament=NCAA and line<-8.5 and o:streak>1 and tA(o:points)>71.04 and tA(points)>80.6

14-5 (8.42, 73.7%) 2-17-0 (-6.95, 10.5%) avg line: -15.4 7-12-0 (-2.18, 36.8%) avg total: 155.7 29.26 48.1 15.53 70.4 6.89 32.3 5.16 10.74 40.53 16.11 16.16 11.37 38.5 42.4 80.9 26.53 41.3 11.16 74.4 8.32 32.5 2.05 10.05 34.11 18.53 12.26 10.53 34.6 37.9 72.5 Mar 23, 2024 Sat 2023 ILL DUQ neutral 1&1 -10.5 147.5

Wasn’t this trend 0-2 yesterday and both games went flying over

[rolltide]

Wasn’t this trend 0-2 yesterday and both games went flying over

that was similar but different. this has much higher team average points

[rolltide]

power 5 conference favs seeded 3-7-9 have not covered as big favs in rounds 2-4

tournament=NCAA and 1<round<5 and (rank=3 or rank=7 or rank=9) and line<-4 and season>2012 and conference in (SEC, ACC, P12, B12, B10)

7-6 (-0.15, 53.8%) 0-13-0 (-7.96, 0.0%) avg line: -7.8 5-8-0 (-4.27, 38.5%) avg total: 139.2 24.92 41.9 12.31 74.4 5.23 25.3 2.69 12.46 37.54 17.77 11.08 12.08 30.0 35.8 67.4 22.92 42.1 14.23 78.1 7.46 31.9 3.38 7.85 31.69 16.69 11.85 12.23 30.5 35.7 67.5 Mar 24, 2024 Sun 2023 BAY CLEM neutral 1&1 -4.5 144.5 Mar 23, 2024 Sat 2023 ILL DUQ neutral 1&1 -10.5 147.5

[rolltide]

teams off scoring 99+ have gone under next game

tournament=NCAA and p:points>98 and round<4 and p:total>144

4-2 (1.83, 66.7%) 4-2-0 (1.08, 66.7%) avg line: -0.8 0-6-0 (-14.67, 0.0%) avg total: 153.8 23.83 43.3 17.33 75.4 5.50 30.8 4.00 9.83 35.50 16.17 11.83 13.83 35.3 35.2 70.5 25.17 43.4 11.00 76.7 7.33 35.2 3.33 8.67 33.17 20.50 11.33 14.33 32.3 36.3 68.7 Mar 24, 2024 Sun 2023 ALA GCU neutral 1&1 -5.5 168.5 Mar 24, 2024 Sun 2023 COLO MARQ neutral 1&1 3.5 147.5

[rolltide]

Pac 12 2nd round teams perfect covering if not off 20+ point opening round win

tournament = NCAA and conference = P12 and round=2 and wins<27 and season>2010 and p:margin<19

10-3 (11.62, 76.9%) 13-0-0 (12.23, 100.0%) avg line: 0.6 7-4-2 (3.31, 63.6%) avg total: 135.2 27.23 50.6 13.31 72.7 7.31 42.2 4.23 8.69 35.62 16.92 14.38 11.85 35.8 39.3 75.1 21.77 37.9 13.23 71.4 6.69 31.8 2.31 11.23 31.62 17.54 11.85 10.15 29.5 33.9 63.5 Mar 24, 2024 Sun 2023 COLO MARQ neutral 1&1 3.5 147.5 Mar 23, 2024 Sat 2023 ORE CREI neutral 1&1 4.5 145.5 Mar 23, 2024 Sat 2023 WAST IWST neutral 1&1 6.5 128.5

[rolltide]

Big East been very strong in 2nd round

tournament = NCAA and conference = BEAST and round=2 and wins<28 and season>2011 and p:margin<29

12-8 (4.25, 60.0%) 17-3-0 (5.42, 85.0%) avg line: 1.2 13-7-0 (5.72, 65.0%) avg total: 138.4 25.25 46.1 14.80 79.6 8.90 41.5 2.40 8.20 32.00 17.35 12.85 10.15 34.3 39.5 74.2 24.65 44.5 13.85 72.3 6.80 32.9 3.35 9.45 32.90 17.55 12.05 10.75 31.1 38.3 70.0 Mar 24, 2024 Sun 2023 MARQ COLO neutral 1&1 -3.5 147.5 Mar 23, 2024 Sat 2023 CREI ORE neutral 1&1 -4.5 145.5

[rolltide]

80% of the bets and 82% of the money is on Zags -4 which is also the most heavily bet game of the day so far

sniffing an upset by Kansas? i need Zags for my bracket but hate that everyone is on them