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  • #1

    Tourney SDQL thread

    first one...

    favs with very low total <=123 do not cover and not playing 29+ win team (play against either CSU or UVA, whichever ends as a favorite)

    tournament = NCAA and F and 110.5<total<123 and o:wins<28
    8-8 (1.00, 50.0%)
    1-15-0 (-9.25, 6.2%) avg line: -10.2
    9-6-1 (3.44, 60.0%) avg total: 119.9

    Tags: None
  • #2
    3 pop up so far this year, 4 in previous tourney history but favs have not covered when total is >161

    tournament = NCAA and F and total>161 and season>2016
    2-2 (2.50, 50.0%)
    0-4-0 (-13.88, 0.0%) avg line: -16.4
    1-3-0 (-4.62, 25.0%) avg total: 165.6

    Comment

    • #3
      1st round teams blown out in their conf tourney have bounced back to win and cover (USCe, HOU)

      note: Houston is the only team to get a 1 or 2 seed after losing by 27+

      tournament = NCAA and p:margin<-26
      12-2 (4.64, 85.7%)
      8-1-0 (4.94, 88.9%) avg line: 0.3

      Comment

      • #4
        not SDQL related but interesting matchups discussed at action

        Oakland play zone nearly 90% of the time, next closest is the tournament is <30%. They matched up with Kentucky who are 5th in the country in points per possession vs zone defenses.

        Tennessee is the best team in the tourney, and #3 in nation, when teams press them and happened to draw the team that presses the most in St Peters

        Marquette is top 5 tourney team at creating turnovers, WKU is bottom 5 in turning the ball over

        James Madison has the top 3pt defense in the tourney, Wisconsin has the worst

        Bama and Charleston both rank top 4 in the tournament in 3pt attempted per shot. That over will get shredded if these teams shoot at their normal 35-37% make rate

        Texas A&M posted the greatest offensive rebounding season in 8 years and gets Nebraska who are the worst team in the tournament allowing 10.6 offensive rebounds per game.

        UVA and Colorado State are #1-2 fewest attempts at a transition offense. pair that up with UVA top 10 in opponent FT % and bottom 10 in team FT % and that will stay u120 without tremendous half court shooting %

        Last edited by rolltide; 03-18-2024, 12:54 PM.

        Comment

        • #5
          teams that attempt many more FT/game but don't make 5+ more vs a team that doesn't foul a lot tend to struggle

          70-120 (-3.61, 36.8%)
          54-129-7 (-3.34, 29.5%) avg line: 0.3
          86-101-3 (-0.02, 46.0%) avg total: 140.7
          24.28 42.3 13.83 71.7 6.16 31.6 3.49 10.24 34.53 17.66 11.88 11.34 31.5 36.1 68.6
          25.46 44.4 13.86 74.1 7.37 34.9 3.68 9.94 35.44 17.30 13.42 11.28 33.8 37.3 72.2
          Mar 22, 2024 Fri 2023 LONG HOU neutral 11&5 24.5 127.5
          Mar 22, 2024 Fri 2023 ALA COFC neutral 6&9 -9.5 173.5
          Mar 22, 2024 Fri 2023 DUKE UVM neutral 7&5 -11.5 132.5
          Mar 22, 2024 Fri 2023 TXAM NEB neutral 5&5 1.5 146.5
          Mar 22, 2024 Fri 2023 NMX CLEM neutral 5&8 -1.5 150.5
          Mar 22, 2024 Fri 2023 WKY MARQ neutral 5&5 14.5 158.5
          Mar 22, 2024 Fri 2023 FATL NORW neutral 5&6 -2.5 142.5
          Mar 21, 2024 Thu 2023 SAMF KAN neutral 9&7 7.5 153.5
          Mar 21, 2024 Thu 2023 IWST SDST neutral 4&8 -16.5 134.5
          Mar 21, 2024 Thu 2023 NEV DAY neutral 6&6 -1.5 136.5
          Mar 21, 2024 Thu 2023 ILL MORE neutral 3&11 -11.5 147.5
          Mar 21, 2024 Thu 2023 MSST MCST neutral 4&5 1.5 130.5
          Mar 20, 2024 Wed 2023 GRAM MONS neutral 3&6 3.5 134.5

          especially when factoring in opponent rest

          15-30 (-6.02, 33.3%)
          4-40-1 (-7.67, 9.1%) avg line: -1.6
          21-24-0 (1.86, 46.7%) avg total: 139.6
          24.16 42.2 13.96 66.3 5.47 29.4 3.47 10.18 34.60 18.78 12.00 11.49 31.7 34.9 67.7
          25.38 44.4 14.80 74.2 8.20 37.0 3.27 9.67 36.07 18.38 13.13 11.44 34.0 38.4 73.8
          Mar 22, 2024 Fri 2023 ALA COFC neutral 6&9 -9.5 173.5
          Mar 22, 2024 Fri 2023 NMX CLEM neutral 5&8 -1.5 150.5
          Mar 21, 2024 Thu 2023 SAMF KAN neutral 9&7 7.5 153.5
          Mar 21, 2024 Thu 2023 IWST SDST neutral 4&8 -16.5 134.5
          Mar 21, 2024 Thu 2023 ILL MORE neutral 3&11 -11.5 147.5

          Comment

          • #6
            11+ seed not a 1.5+ dog = New Mex

            tournament = NCAA and round = 1 and rank>10 and line<1.5

            7-1 (11.25, 87.5%)
            7-1-0 (8.88, 87.5%) avg line: -2.4
            5-3-0 (-0.56, 62.5%) avg total: 136.8
            25.75 46.2 17.12 75.3 5.12 30.6 3.50 9.88 38.00 17.62 13.50 11.88 33.1 40.6 73.8
            22.12 37.7 12.50 68.0 5.75 28.0 2.12 10.62 33.62 19.75 11.25 11.75 26.2 36.2 62.5
            Mar 22, 2024 Fri 2023 NMX CLEM neutral 5&8 -1.5 151.5

            Comment

            • #7
              some conference trends

              Ivy covered 7 of 8 first round, tournament = NCAA and round = 1 and conference = IVY and season>2011
              Mtn West is 1-9 ATS since 2018 tourney, tournament = NCAA and conference = MWC and round=1 and season > 2017
              Big 12 are 17-3 SU with 16 covers facing a round 1 team with 20-29 wins, tournament = NCAA and round = 1 and season>2017 and 30>o:wins>19 and conference = B12

              Comment

              • #8
                tournament =NCAA and round =1 and F and line>-35 and start time>2155

                20-6 (5.38, 76.9%)
                12-14-0 (-2.44, 46.2%) avg line: -7.8
                4-22-0 (-7.31, 15.4%) avg total: 139.8
                24.58 43.3 12.92 71.3 6.85 33.8 4.65 10.23 36.92 16.00 14.58 11.00 33.2 35.0 68.9
                22.92 39.7 10.81 71.5 6.88 33.8 3.15 10.04 34.65 16.85 11.65 11.27 29.3 33.7 63.5
                Mar 22, 2024 Fri 2023 SMC GCU neutral 9&5 -5.5 131.5

                Comment

                • #9
                  teams that combine on avg going over by >5.5 points per game flip to unders early in the tourney

                  https://killersports.com/ncaabb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++


                  8-45-1 (-8.25, 15.1%) avg total: 148.2
                  26.72 47.0 13.07 70.3 6.81 33.6 4.39 9.96 37.81 16.20 15.17 12.15 35.2 38.0 73.3
                  23.98 40.5 11.74 70.0 6.96 31.8 2.24 9.46 32.37 17.11 11.96 10.52 30.3 36.2 66.7
                  Mar 22, 2024 Fri 2023 TCU UTST neutral 7&6 -4.5 151.5
                  Mar 22, 2024 Fri 2023 WIS JMAD neutral 4&10 -5.5 145.5
                  Mar 22, 2024 Fri 2023 ALA COFC neutral 6&9 -9.5 172.5
                  Mar 22, 2024 Fri 2023 FLA COLO neutral 4&1 -1.5 158.5
                  Mar 22, 2024 Fri 2023 FATL NORW neutral 5&6 -4.5 143.5
                  Mar 21, 2024 Thu 2023 WAST DRKE neutral 66-61 5&10 -1.5 137.5 5 3.5 -10.5 -3.5 -7.0 W W U 0
                  Mar 21, 2024 Thu 2023 TXT NCST neutral 67-80 5&4 -4.5 147.5 -13 -17.5 -0.5 -9.0 8.5 L L U 0
                  Mar 21, 2024 Thu 2023 KTKY OAK neutral 76-80 5&8 -13.5 160.5 -4 -17.5 -4.5 -11.0 6.5 L L U 0
                  Mar 21, 2024 Thu 2023 ILL MORE neutral 85-69 3&11 -10.5 146.5 16 5.5 7.5 6.5 1.0 W W O 0

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    big favs on 2+ game losing streak

                    tournament = NCAA and round = 1 and line < -7.5 and streak < -1

                    avg win by nearly 20 ppg

                    5-0 (19.20, 100.0%)
                    5-0-0 (6.20, 100.0%) avg line: -13.0
                    2-3-0 (-0.50, 40.0%) avg total: 140.1
                    27.40 50.7 16.00 70.8 8.60 41.0 4.00 9.60 36.40 14.40 16.00 11.40 38.6 40.8 79.4
                    23.00 41.4 7.00 61.4 7.20 33.3 1.60 7.60 26.60 18.00 10.80 12.80 29.2 31.0 60.2
                    Mar 22, 2024 Fri 2023 DUKE UVM neutral 7&5 -12.5 132.5

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      big favs with bad defenses rarely cover if they avg 78+ ppg

                      tournament=NCAA and line<-8.5 and o:streak>1 and tA(o:points)>71.04 and tA(points)>77.3
                      14-5 (8.42, 73.7%)
                      2-17-0 (-6.95, 10.5%) avg line: -15.4
                      7-12-0 (-2.18, 36.8%) avg total: 155.7
                      29.26 48.1 15.53 70.4 6.89 32.3 5.16 10.74 40.53 16.11 16.16 11.37 38.5 42.4 80.9
                      26.53 41.3 11.16 74.4 8.32 32.5 2.05 10.05 34.11 18.53 12.26 10.53 34.6 37.9 72.5
                      Mar 23, 2024 Sat 2023 ILL DUQ neutral 1&1 -9.5 148.5
                      Mar 22, 2024 Fri 2023 ALA COFC neutral 6&9 -9.5 172.5
                      Mar 22, 2024 Fri 2023 BAY CLG neutral 6&8 -14.5 137.5

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Money won is twice as nice as money earned
                        Fast Eddie Felson

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Grand Canyon been very strong with a lot of rest

                          team = GCU and rest>4 and p:margin>-19 and season>2021

                          11-1 (19.50, 91.7%)
                          11-0-0 (10.05, 100.0%) avg line: -6.7
                          6-5-0 (3.45, 54.5%) avg total: 141.1
                          30.42 47.0 14.83 72.7 8.58 35.5 4.92 13.08 41.42 16.83 14.25 10.58 39.1 42.7 84.2
                          23.08 38.7 12.75 69.2 5.83 30.3 3.67 11.42 35.42 17.67 10.58 14.92 30.6 32.8 64.8
                          Mar 22, 2024 Fri 2023 GCU SMC neutral 5&9 5.5 130.5

                          Comment

                          • #14

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              GL if you have Utah St tonight

                              https://killersports.com/ncaabb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

                              1-14 (-8.80, 6.7%)
                              1-14-0 (-8.27, 6.7%) avg line: 0.5
                              4-11-0 (-8.43, 26.7%) avg total: 137.5
                              22.20 39.1 9.67 71.1 6.07 27.2 2.47 11.87 34.67 16.07 10.40 13.80 26.6 33.5 60.1
                              24.93 46.3 13.07 76.0 6.00 34.9 2.60 7.67 32.53 15.80 12.53 10.67 32.3 36.6 68.9
                              Mar 22, 2024 Fri 2023 UTST TCU neutral 6&7 3.5 149.5

                              Comment

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