NFL Betting Info. Week 3

[TheGame]

Sports Books Crush NFL Bettors Again in Week 2
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com

LAS VEGAS -- One week after getting absolutely pummeled by the Las Vegas sports books to near record proportions, bettors came back with a vengeance in Week 2 of the NFL season in an attempt to gain some of their money back. But they ended up failing again, as only one of their seven key games on the day came through.

“The Saints losing were key to our entire day because of knocking out so many teasers and money-line parlays,” said MGM Resorts race and sports VP Jay Rood. “That was the game that was tied into other games throughout the schedule the most. Had they covered, tied to the Patriots covering, we might have been in some trouble heading into the late games.”

New Orleans is considered by many to be one of the top-five rated teams in the league, which helped the majority of the public forego the fact that the Saints have failed to cover eight of their last nine regular-season games on the road, including last week at Atlanta as a 3-point favorite. It’s easily the worst road ATS record among all teams over that span.

On Sunday, the Saints were 6-point favorites at Cleveland and proceeded to get beat 26-24, which paid +240 to the few bettors who chose the Browns to win outright on the money-line. The only key decision of the eight early games the bettors collectively had correctly was the Patriots (-3) at Minnesota, where over 80 percent of the wagers came on New England. There was some large adjustments on that game made Friday due to Vikings RB Adrian Peterson‘s being deactivated due to legal issues..

Said Rood, “We initially took the Patriots game off the parlay card (-3.5) when Peterson was out because the adjusted line (-6 on the board) got so high, but when it started falling (back to the original line) after sharper money was taking the points, we opened it back up on the cards early Sunday morning.”

The Linemakers on Sporting News’ Kenny White said Peterson’s absence should have accounted for just a 1.5-point adjustment, and when the Pats were reposted between -5.5 and -7 (at CG Technologies), large money came pouring in on the dog and books were pushed right back to where they started at -3. Sharps were wrong, and Joe Public was right with the Patriots, who won 30-7, but the problem for the public was that most didn’t have their winning New England side paired with another winner for the rest of the day.

Dog day afternoon

After regrouping for the second wave of games, many with a visit to the ATM machine, bettors collectively came strong with wagers on five of the six remaining games and all five favorites failed to cover.

Tampa Bay lost outright at home, 19-17, to St. Louis as a 4.5-point favorite, an easy game for many to choose after the Rams’ horrendous 34-6 home loss to the Vikings in Week 1. The Buccaneers were the side of choice by over 70 percent of bettors.

Defending Super Bowl champion Seattle lost outright, 30-21, at San Diego as 5-point favorites, where 62 percent of bettors sided with the Seahawks but were shocked to see the Chargers defense be the ones swarming all over the place.

After seeing the Jets fail to cover at home last week against an anemic Raiders offense, 70 percent of bettors thought the Packers would have no problem covering -7.5 at home against Geno Smith’s squad, but the Packers were fortunate to come away with a 31-24 win.

Then there was Denver. Over 60 percent of bettors thought that laying -13.5 at home would be no problem after seeing the Chiefs lose at home to Tennessee last week. The Broncos came out firing, building a 21-10 halftime lead, but they sputtered in the second-half and ended up winning by only seven, 24-17. The total staying UNDER 49, which 70 percent of bettors disagreed with, was another blow. However, larger straight-bet money was correct, as it pushed the total down from an opener of 51.

In the nightcap, most sided with the 49ers laying 7 points in their Levi’s Stadium home debut against the Bears. The Bears, trailing 20-7 after three quarters, stormed back not only to cover, but also win outright, 28-20, the cherry on top of an already stellar Sunday for the sports books.

Overall on Sunday, favorites went 6-8 ATS, with six of the underdogs winning outright. The OVER went 6-8 as well. When the numbers on the right side are greater than the left, the sports books are almost always going to have a good day.

The ‘league is unbeatable’

Bettors must now be questioning their own ratings. After being terribly wrong through the first two weeks of the season while riding the favorites, they may start to look for a few more underdogs, and that’s when the books really get them. Fewer bettors will be willing to lay points with the first two weeks still fresh in their minds, which helps the books from losing a ton on a favorite-fest.

“I really don’t know how the bettors keep betting these games so much,” said Rood. “This league is unbeatable. It’s so tough week to week that I don‘t know how many could survive it if they had to.”

Sharp bettors who depend on weekly income from the NFL do well because they’re usually on the side the books need. Joe Public, who keeps trying to hit big-dollar 8-team parlays, have a rough time of it.

Advice for Joe Public: Instead of swinging for the fences of a big payout, try a few straight bets and a couple of two-team parlays. How many times do we hear the guy in the back of a sports book say, “the damn Packers killed my five-team parlay”? He went 4-1 for the day, which should mean a big win, but he ended up getting greedy and losing money.

The football parlay pay chart is stacked against you to begin with. It’s not true odds like baseball, and the one fair payout is 13-to-5 on a two-teamer. Give it a shot and make those 4-1 days winners like the pros do.

Saturdays results

Rood said his chain of 12 books across the Strip fared very well on Saturday, despite a decrease in action on Floyd Mayweather’s 12-round decision over Marcos Maidana in their rematch.

“We were way off in handle from last September when Canelo Alvarez and Mayweather fought. It was about a third off from what we handled then,“ said Rood. “We still wound up with a pretty good day between college football and the fight. We held about 8-to-9 percent on college, and overall, it’s been great for us so far this season.

"Our best scenario in the fight would have been Mayweather by knockout, even though we would have to pay out one of those long odds on the ’Pick-the-KO-Round’, but most of our hefty decisions on that prop were all on Madaina winning by knockout.”

[TheGame]

Re: NFL Betting Info. Week 3

First Look at NFL Week 3
By Stephen Nover

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (Thursday) - Maybe the Bucs will fare better as 'dogs since they are 0-2 as favorites losing both games straight-up to the Derek Anderson-led Panthers and Austin Davis-led Rams. This is Tampa Bay's lone scheduled prime time game. The Falcons have big guns again on offense and the Buccaneers have a cluster injury problem in their defensive front seven, but Atlanta still is bad on defense giving up 472 yards in each of its first two games.

San Diego at Buffalo - The Bills are in prime shape to open 3-0 drawing the Chargers traveling cross-country for an early start in a letdown spot after a huge home win against the Super Bowl champs. Thinking and believing the Bills can go 3-0 are two different things, however.

Dallas at St. Louis - It certainly would be a plus for Dallas if suspended cornerback Orlando Scandrick gets reinstated. The Cowboys are tough when they play smart - which isn't that often - riding DeMarco Murray, having Tony Romo pick his spots and taking advantage of sub-par opposing quarterbacks.

Washington at Philadelphia - It's heartbreaking to see Robert Griffin III get injured again. But the Redskins are better off in Jay Gruden's offense with Kirk Cousins. I'll never forgive Mike Shanahan for ruining RG III's career by callously and selfishly keeping him in that playoff game against Seattle two seasons ago when Griffin was so obviously hurt.

Houston at NY Giants - The Texans went 2-0 last year, too. Then they lost the rest of their games. That's not going to happen this season. Still, if the Giants can get any kind of pulse from their offense they should win. They better. Losing on the road to Matthew Stafford is one thing. Falling at home to Drew Stanton is quite another.

Minnesota at New Orleans - This is going to be a very distracting week for Minnesota. The Saints are near-impossible to fade at home where they are 17-0 SU, 16-1 ATS with Sean Payton coaching. New Orleans is 0-2 and finally getting to play at home. The Saints averaged 34 points at the Superdome last year.

Tennessee at Cincinnati - The Bengals may be the best team in the AFC right now. The Titans did a lot of regressing this past Sunday at home against the Cowboys. Jake Locker proved that he can't be trusted to elevate his game.

Baltimore at Cleveland - The Browns are close to being 2-0 while showing no quit. Baltimore figured out two things last week - Ray Rice can't be part of their team anymore and Joe Flacco should be nothing but a glorified game manager.

Green Bay at Detroit - Revenge is a better handicapping tool for college, but the Packers have to think payback for that 40-10 Thanksgiving whacking the Lions gave them last year. Aaron Rodgers didn't play in that game. The Packers' defense, though, allowed 30.8 points per game on the road last year and surrendered 36 to Seattle opening week. Green Bay's defense has yet to step up.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville - The Colts are just 9-9 on the road during the Andrew Luck era and traveling on a short week. Chad Henne is brutal, but at least he's not Blaine Gabbert. Blake Bortles would give the Jaguars a needed spark. It's time Gus Bradley made the move.

Oakland at New England - The Raiders can't play on the East Coast with an early start time. Actually, the Raiders can't play period. They were held to their lowest yardage total since 2009 in their opener against the Jets and then just picked up garbage yards this past Sunday against the Texans after falling behind 27-0.

San Francisco at Arizona - Difficult game to handicap right now until Carson Palmer's status is unknown. Drew Stanton has made five career starts in the NFL. He has a 5-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio, has displayed a high degree of inaccuracy and been sacked 21 times during those starts.

Denver at Seattle - Rematch time. The Broncos hope they matchup up better now to the Seahawks with key defensive newcomers and a switch to a power running game with Montee Ball. Maybe they get Wes Welker back this week. Even though the Seahawks buried the Broncos on the scoreboard, 43-8, at the Super Bowl they only outgained Denver by 35 yards done in by a minus 4 turnover ratio. The Broncos, though, have yet to play a complete game. That's what it would take to spring the upset.

Kansas City at Miami - I prefer the Dolphins in an underdog role, but can't seriously look at the Chiefs unless they have Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry in the lineup.

Pittsburgh at Carolina (Sun night) - Carolina has gone under in 11 of its last 12. Maybe that's the way to look as Pittsburgh hasn't scored a touchdown in the last six quarters and Cam Newton is adjusting to all new wide receivers. Pitt's aging defense has extra rest this week.

Chicago at NY Jets (Mon) - The Bears redeemed themselves from opening week. Jay Cutler certainly can take advantage of the Jets' inviting secondary. On the flip side, Geno Smith is improved, plays better at home and has the runners to hurt the Bears' weak rush defense.

[TheGame]

Re: NFL Betting Info. Week 3

NFL Betting Recap - Week 2
VegasInsider.com

Biggest Favorite to Cash

Washington (-4.5) defeated Jacksonville 41-10 despite losing QB Robert Griffin III and WR Desean Jackson to injuries.

Biggest Underdog to Cash

Kansas City (+13) lost to Denver 24-17 but still managed to cover. The Chiefs had an opportunity to tie the game late but the Broncos made a goal-line stand.

Biggest Underdog to Win Outright

Chicago (+290) trailed San Francisco 17-0 late in the first-half but rallied for a 28-20 win as seven-point road underdogs.

Cleveland (+200) nipped New Orleans 26-24 as a five-point home underdog.

Line Moves

There were plenty of moves on Sunday and some were right, while others were wrong. The winners were bettors who took the Browns (+6), Chargers (+5) and Jets (+7½). The teams that didn't get respect from the professionals were the Panthers (-1), Redskins (-4½), Cardinals (+1½), Patriots (-3) and Rams (+5½). Carolina and Arizona's moves were also related to injuries.

Braggin' Rights

The AFC went 4-3 against the NFC in Week 2, victories by the Browns, Bengals, Chargers and Patriots. NFC winners were the Cowboys, Packers and Redskins. The last non-conference matchup of Week 2 takes place on Monday between the Eagles and Colts.

Undefeated (2-0)

Arizona, Buffalo, Carolina, Cincinnati, Denver, Houston, Philadelphia (Pending)

The Broncos are the only unbeaten team that has failed to cover a number.

Winless (0-2)

Jacksonville, Kansas City, New Orleans, New York Giants, Oakland, Tampa Bay, Indianapolis (Pending)

The Saints have lost their two games by a combined five points.

Favorites Bounce Back

After watching the underdogs go 11-5 against the spread in Week 1, favorites rebounded a little bit with an 8-6-1 ATS mark in Week 2.

The point-spread didn’t matter in 13 of the first 15 games in Week 2. Denver won but failed to cover and Green Bay defeated the N.Y. Jets 31-24 as seven-point home favorites.

Totals

The ‘under’ went 6-2 in the early games on Sunday while the ‘over’ produced a 3-2 mark in the late games.

New England built a 24-7 lead at halftime and shutout Minnesota 6-0 in the final two quarters. The 37 combined points came up short of the closing number (49).

In their 30-14 home loss to the Texans, the Raiders put up a late touchdown to push the game ‘over’ the closing total of 41. Down 23 points, Oakland was actually calling timeouts to post the meaningless score.

The game-winning field goal by the Browns (26-24) helped that game go ‘over’ the closing number of 49½. This line was as high as 50½ points earlier in the day, leaving bettors with middle opportunities.

Kansas City’s failure to execute late at Denver kept the game ‘under’ the total (49). If the Chiefs score, the game is tied 24-24 and likely headed to overtime.

The SNF contest between the 49ers and Bears had a middle opportunity. The number was as high as 48½ this week but most shops closed at 47½. The final result was 48 combined points.

[TheGame]

Re: NFL Betting Info. Week 3

Books pick up Week 2 win
By Matty Simo
VegasInsider.com

Johnny Avello said his New York Giants were “just awful” heading into Week 3 of the NFL season, and he was right on the money. Avello, The Wynn's Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, grew up a Giants fan, but opened the Arizona Cardinals as 1.5-point road favorites for their matchup on Sunday.

Little did Avello know, Arizona quarterback Carson Palmer would be ruled out before kickoff due to a shoulder injury and replaced by backup Drew Stanton. Bettors ended up moving the line four points in favor of New York to -2.5, yet Stanton still somehow managed to lead the Cardinals to a 25-14 victory, helping sportsbooks to another winning week.

“We ended up closing the Giants the favorite, and that worked okay because we took Arizona money early, took Giants money late – that game was fairly balanced out,” Avello said. “This is nothing new with the Giants, even the two years they won the Super Bowls (at the end of 2007 and 2011 seasons), they didn’t look that good at the beginning of the year. They never have. Every year the Giants have won the Super Bowl, it’s been about a momentum swing where everything just started to come together.

“And it’s not that they played that great during those two Super Bowl wins, it was just that it was everything happening right at the right time. They look worse than those two years right now. Manning doesn’t look good, they don’t have the receivers they once had. They always relied on a good strong running back, they don’t have that. They just don’t have anything.”

Results in eight of the 14 Sunday games went against the betting line moves – including six of the seven early games – led by Arizona’s win and the Carolina Panthers coming through with starting quarterback Cam Newton back in the lineup following a rib injury that caused him to miss Week 1. The Panthers beat the Detroit Lions 24-7 at home after opening at -3 and closing at -1. Later in the day, the St. Louis Rams pulled off a 19-17 upset of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as 5.5-point road underdogs.

“I think the good games for us (Sunday) were the Panthers and the Rams-Buccaneers – I guess those two were the bigger ones,” said Avello.

The Chicago Bears capped off the day’s big win for the sportsbooks with an even bigger victory for themselves. The Bears evened their record at 1-1 after trailing the San Francisco 49ers 17-0 late in the second quarter on the road. Chicago rallied behind four touchdown passes by QB Jay Cutler and a solid defensive effort the rest of the way to win 28-20 on Sunday Night Football as a seven-point underdog.

While underdogs did not enjoy nearly the same success as Week 1 when they went 11-5 against the spread with seven straight-up wins, it’s the type of dogs that won and covered who killed bettors the most in Week 2. The Bucs did it to them again along with the New Orleans Saints, who fell to 0-2 with a 26-24 loss to the Cleveland Browns as 5.5-point road favorites. Underdogs are 6-9 SU and 7-7-1 ATS going into the Monday Night Football game between the Indianapolis Colts (-3) and Philadelphia Eagles.

“It busted up some teasers, that’s for sure,” Avello said of the Saints. “That was a good game for the teaser side. The 49er game, we needed the Bears for a little so that worked out ok. (Tonight) I’m heavy on Eagles points, but I’m heavy on Colts moneyline.”

[TheGame]

Re: NFL Betting Info. Week 3

TAMPA BAY (0 - 2) at ATLANTA (1 - 1) - 9/18/2014, 8:25 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 2-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


TAMPA BAY vs. ATLANTA
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Atlanta is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Tampa Bay

[TheGame]

Re: NFL Betting Info. Week 3

Buccaneers at Falcons
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The Falcons and Buccaneers usually play close games when they get together as Atlanta is listed as a favorite for the first time this season, while Tampa Bay is receiving points for the first time in three games. Atlanta can move to 2-0 in the division with a victory after knocking off New Orleans in overtime back in Week 1 as a three-point home underdog, but the Falcons need to bounce back after falling behind early in last week’s loss at Cincinnati.

The defense has been lit up through two weeks, as the Falcons gave up 472 yards in a 24-10 defeat to the Bengals as five-point ‘dogs, one game after allowing 472 yards in a 33-30 triumph over New Orleans. Atlanta’s lone touchdown at Cincinnati came in the fourth quarter trailing, 24-3, while Matt Ryan tossed three interceptions in the defeat. The Falcons dropped to 3-6 ATS since the start of last season as a road underdog, while winning just once in this span with an overtime victory over the Bills in Toronto.

Tampa Bay’s offense has put up just 31 points in two home losses to Carolina and St. Louis. The Bucs did limit these two teams to a combined 39 points, but they did face backup quarterbacks Derek Anderson and rookie Austin Davis. In last week’s 19-17 home setback to the Rams, Tampa Bay limited St. Louis to just one touchdown and four field goals, but the final field goal by Greg Zuerlein with 38 second left dropped Tampa Bay to 0-2. The Bucs cashed the ‘under’ of 37½, but failed to cover as four-point favorites.

Atlanta has won seven of the past 10 meetings with Tampa Bay, but three of those games came in Week 17 of relatively meaningless action. Last season, the Falcons managed a cover as six-point home favorites in a 31-23 victory, even though Atlanta rushed 18 times for only 18 yards. Since Mike Smith took over as head coach of the Falcons in 2008, Atlanta owns a 2-4 ATS record at home against Tampa Bay.

In the second meeting in 2013, the Bucs blew out the Falcons, 41-28 as two-point home favorites. Bobby Rainey ran all over the Atlanta defense for 163 yards and two touchdowns, filling in for the injured Doug Martin. The Falcons couldn’t slow down Vincent Jackson, who hauled in 165 yards receiving, as the Tampa Bay receiver picked up 138 yards and two scores in the first meeting at the Georgia Dome.

Now the Falcons are back in the favorite role, this team is just 6-8 ATS the last two seasons when laying points at the Georgia Dome. In this span, Atlanta owns a 5-2 ATS record at home against division foes, but the last three covers all came in the underdog role. Tampa Bay dropped seven of eight games away from Raymond James Stadium last season, while covering just twice, which includes as a 16½-point underdog at Seattle in a three-point setback.

In Lovie Smith’s final two seasons in Chicago (2011-12), the head coach put together a 3-7 SU and 3-6-1 ATS record as a road underdog. Smith is in this role for the first time this season, as the Buccaneers have dropped nine straight September games since 2012, while covering just three times in this span.

The Bucs hope to get Martin back this week to strengthen the running back position after he missed last week’s loss with a knee injury. Rainey took care of business against the Rams with 144 yards rushing in Martin’s place and has already proven he can rip through the Falcons’ defense with his home performance last season. Roddy White didn’t practice on Tuesday for the Falcons after suffering a hamstring injury at Cincinnati, but the Falcons’ standout receiver is listed as probable for Thursday.

The Falcons are listed as 6½-point home favorites, as that number could be bumped up to seven by Thursday night. The total is set between 44½ and 45 depending on where you shop as that number has stayed pretty constant the whole week. The game kicks off at 8:25 PM and can be seen on CBS and the NFL Network.

[TheGame]

Re: NFL Betting Info. Week 3

San Diego at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 56-36 as a road underdog of 7 points or less
Buffalo: 8-23 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival


Dallas at St Louis, 1:00 ET
Dallas: 12-27 ATS in road games off a non-conference game
St Louis: 12-26 ATS against NFC East division opponents


Washington at Philadelphia, 1:00 ET
Washington: 37-21 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
Philadelphia: 4-13 ATS in home lined games


Houston at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
Houston: 16-6 OVER in road games in September
NY Giants: 0-6 in September games


Minnesota at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 51-26 OVER in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses
New Orleans: 12-3 UNDER against conference opponents


Tennessee at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 15-5 ATS after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game
Cincinnati: 7-0 after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better


Baltimore at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 59-38 UNDER (+17.2 Units) off a home win
Cleveland: 21-37 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs


Green Bay at Detroit, 1:00 ET
Green Bay: 7-0 OVER in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored
Detroit: 1-8 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5


Indianapolis at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Indianapolis: 19-8 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest
Jacksonville: 3-11 ATS in home games


Oakland at New England, 1:00 ET
Oakland: 4-13 after being outrushed by 75 or more yards in 2 straight games
New England: 10-2 off 1 or more consecutive unders


San Franciso at Arizona, 4:05 ET
San Francisco: 14-17 UNDER against conference opponents
Arizona: 1-6 UNDER after a win by 10 or more points


Denver at Seattle, 4:25 ET
Denver: 47-26 OVER after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game
Seattle: 14-5 ATS in home lined games


Kansas City at Miami, 4:25 ET
Kansas City: 14-33 ATS against AFC East division opponents
Miami: 158-111 UNDER when playing with 6 or less days rest


Pittsburgh at Carolina, 8:30 ET
Pittsburgh: 0-6 ATS in the first month of the season
Carolina: 17-6 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better


NFL Betting Trends for Monday, Sept. 22


Chicago at NY Jets, 8:30 ET
Chicago: 13-4 OVER in road lined games
NY Jets: 4-16 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better

[TheGame]

Re: NFL Betting Info. Week 3

DALLAS vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Dallas's last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games at home
St. Louis is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Dallas


MINNESOTA vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-8-1 SU in its last 10 games ,on the road
New Orleans is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games when playing Minnesota


SAN DIEGO vs. BUFFALO
San Diego is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing San Diego


GREEN BAY vs. DETROIT
Green Bay is 2-8-2 ATS in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Detroit is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Green Bay


WASHINGTON vs. PHILADELPHIA
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Washington is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Philadelphia is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games at home


HOUSTON vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Houston is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games at home


TENNESSEE vs. CINCINNATI
Tennessee is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Tennessee is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Cincinnati is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games


BALTIMORE vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home


INDIANAPOLIS vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games
Indianapolis is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games


OAKLAND vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 10 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home


SAN FRANCISCO vs. ARIZONA
San Francisco is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games
Arizona is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games


KANSAS CITY vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Miami is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games


DENVER vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Denver's last 19 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Seattle's last 13 games when playing at home against Denver
Seattle is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Denver


PITTSBURGH vs. CAROLINA
Pittsburgh is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games
Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh


Monday, September 22


CHICAGO vs. NY JETS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Chicago's last 11 games on the road
NY Jets are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games at home
NY Jets are 3-4-2 ATS in their last 9 games

[TheGame]

Re: NFL Betting Info. Week 3

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 3
By Jason Logan
Covers.com

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 50.5)

Half-point hook vs. Eagles’ poor starts

This 6.5-point spread is the second highest line for a Redskins-Eagles contests in the past five seasons (Eagles -7 in 2011-12 season finale) and could easily climb even higher by the time these NFC East rivals kickoff Sunday.

Washington is without starter Robert Griffin III, which will convince the public to pound 2-0 Philadelphia. However, Redskins backup QB Kirk Cousins would be a starter on almost half of the other teams in the league and is undervalued by many even after giving RG3 a go for his No. 1 spot in the preseason.

Eagles backers have soaked through their shirts this season. Philly fell behind 17-0 to the Jaguars as 10-point favorites but battled back to win 34-17 in Week 1. And this past Monday, the Eagles were down 20-6 to the Colts in the third quarter before outscoring Indianapolis 24-7 and winning the game outright as a 3-point pup.

Philadelphia has been outscored 34-6 in the first half of its first two games, turning the tables with a 58-10 assault in the final two quarters. Will another slow start be in store for Sunday? And if so, can Philadelphia recover in time to get past that half-point hook? Well, they'll have to deal with a stingy Washington defense that has only allowed a pair of field goals in second halves so far - lowest second-half points allowed in the league.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-2.5, 53)

Packers’ poor protection vs. Lions’ sack-happy defense

Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers has already been sacked seven times, which is seven times more than the Packers would like after Rodgers missed seven games due to injury in 2013. "Mr. Discount Double Check" was blasted versus Seattle in the opener, taking three sacks, then was rocked for four QB kills against the Jets in Week 2.

The Packers offensive line is a bit of a mish-mash. There are a couple stalwarts on the line, in Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang, but inexperience has been its biggest weakness. Second and first year protectors have been shifted around since tackle Bryan Bulaga went down (questionable for Week 3), and replacement Derek Sherrod has allowed pass rushers to get the best of him.

Detroit’s biggest strength on defense is its ability to pressure the passer – making up for a soft secondary. The Lions have seven sacks through the first two weeks, including four against the Panthers last Sunday, and will need to get to Rodgers quickly before he can hit his targets downfield. Detroit only got to Rodgers once in its lone meeting against him in 2013, but did sack the crap out of Matt Flynn – seven times for 37 yards – when it played the Packers backup at home in late November.

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-5, 48.5)

Broncos’ revenge vs. Seahawks’ stumble

The NFL schedule offers the Broncos a rare opportunity in Week 3. This is just the sixth time in NFL history that the previous Super Bowl combatants have faced each other in the following season. And it’s a game that’s been on Denver’s mind since the confetti flew in its face at MetLife Stadium this past February.

The Broncos have had revenge on their minds all offseason, if you couldn’t tell by the way the roster beefed up on elite defenders like LB DeMarcus Ware, S T.J. Ward, and CB Aqib Talib. And just in time for this Super Bowl rematch, Denver’s division rival San Diego laid down some bread crumbs for the Broncos to follow after stunning the Seahawks 30-21 in Week 2.

Just like Drago in Rocky IV, the Chargers proved that Seattle can bleed – “OK, you've hurt him, now he's nervous, it hurt! You see Rocky, he's not a machine! He's a man!” The Seahawks have been more concerned with defending their loss to the Bolts than talking about the Broncos, and should be worried that Peyton Manning and TE Julius Thomas will hook up like Philip Rivers and TE Antonio Gates, who scored three times in Sunday’s victory over the champs.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 42)

Steelers’ versatile catch/run game vs. Panthers overrated rush defense

A quick glance over the NFL’s defensive categories, and you’d think Carolina was locking down the ground game like leg shackles – ranked sixth in the league, allowing only 86 rushing yards through the first two weeks. And why not? This Panthers stop unit finished 2013 with the third-best run defense (89.2 ypg).

Well, you’re all stupid. Digging deeper into the numbers, you’ll see that Carolina has faced the fewest rush attempts in the league through Weeks 1 and 2. Opponents – Tampa Bay and Detroit – have only run the ball an average of 17.5 times. The Buccaneers fell behind and gave up on the ground while the Lions were never big fans of running to begin with. But despite a lack of action on the turf, the Panthers’ opposition is still picking up 4.9 yards per carry.

Pittsburgh will look to exploit that overrated run defense with playmaking RB Le'Veon Bell, who leads the NFL with 308 yards from scrimmage – 168 of those coming on the ground. Bell is picking up 5.2 yards per carry and has already reeled in 11 passes for 12.4 yards per catch.

And behind the flash-and-dash of Bell is bowling ball LeGarrette Blount. He hasn’t seen much action this season – 14 yards on seven attempts – but has been a thorn in the side of his former NFC South rival, rushing for 170 yards and a touchdown in four career games versus Carolina.

[TheGame]

Re: NFL Betting Info. Week 3

NFL Week 3

Bucs (0-2) @ Falcons (1-1) — Tampa Bay lost first two home games despite facing teams playing backup QBs; they're 9-13 in last 22 games as road dog- LSmith had 8-15-1 mark in his last 24 games as AU with Bears. Falcons are 23-14-1 as favorite at home under MSmith, 8-5-1 in division play. Teams split season series last three years, after Falcons had won five in row before that; Bucs lost five of last six visits here, with three of last four losses here by 6+ points. There were 149 first downs via penalty in Weeks 1-2; Bucs were only team not to allow one, but they also have only one takeaway (-3), unusual for a Lovie-coached team. Atlanta has five TDs, all on drives of 77+ yards; defense has one takeaway, not creating short field.

Chargers (1-1) @ Bills (2-0) — Buffalo is +4 in turnovers; they won field position by 14-22 yards, thats why they're 2-0. Bills are 7-2 vs spread at home under Marrone, 1-1 when favored- they're 6-3 in games where spread was 3 or less points. Chargers hung 30 points on Seattle last week, after blowing second half lead in Arizona week before; Bolts are 10-3-1 in last 14 games as road underdog, but 2-7 in last nine games on artificial turf. San Diego won three of last four series games, winning last meeting 37-10 at home in '11. Chargers are just 4-9-1 in game following their last 14 wins. Bills are only team not to gain a first down via penalty this season- there have been 149 such first downs in two weeks of play.

Cowboys (1-1) @ Rams (1-1) — Tampa Bay’s Rainey ran for 144 yards vs Rams last week, with Bucs having little passing threat; St Louis will have to do better vs explosive Murray and Romo’s passing—Dallas ran for 220 yards in decisive win at Tennessee last week, but Cowboys are just 10-19 vs spread in game following last 29 wins, 11-15-1 in games where spread was 3 or less (Rams are 6-4 in such games under Fisher). Pokes are 3-7-1 as road favorites in Garrett era. 3rd-string QB (not anymore) Davis led road win in first NFL start at Tampa. Home side won last four series games; Dallas split two visits here, last of which was in ’08-- Rams lost 34-7/31-7 in last two games with Dallas, in ‘11/’13.

Redskins (1-1) @ Eagles (2-0) — Iggles are first-ever NFL team to start season 2-0 when they trailed both games by 14+ points in second half; they’ve been held without TD in first half of six of last 12 games, but scored 3+ TDs in second half in last four of those- they’ve won seven of last 10 games with Redskins, but Washington is 4-3 in last seven visits here. Cousins started last three games LY, so this isn’t new for him; he was 22-33/250 with two TDs in relief of RGIII in last week’s easy win—he’s moving up in class here. Skins covered once in last seven games as road dog, failing to cover last four tries as road dog. Eagles are 4-4 as home favorite under Kelly, 10-17 in last 27 as HF overall; they’re 6-8 off a win, 5-5 under Kelly.

Texans (2-0) @ Giants (0-2) — Houston started out 2-0 LY, never won another game; Giants started 0-6, so sense of urgency for both sides here, though Big Blue’s leaky OL is source of great concern for immobile Manning. Texans allowed only three TDs in first two games; they’re 9-7-1 as road favorite since ’10, 14-10-1 off a win, but 6-12-3 vs NFC teams. Giants are 4-7 in games where spread was 3 or less points; they lost to Cardinal backup QB Stanton last week- they’re 5-12-1 in games vs AFC foes. Giants won two of three in seldom-played series; Texans lost 14-10 in only visit here (’06). Giants are 4-5-1 in last ten games as home underdog, 4-6 in game following their last ten losses.

Vikings (1-1) @ Saints (0-2) — Peterson is out for Vikes here, as Zimmer is dealt cruel blow after waiting until age 58 for HC job. Minnesota is 10-5-1 vs spread off a loss, 12-9 in last 21 games as road dogs- they ran ball for only 54 yards last week, lost field position by 22 yards, in addition to getting FG blocked for TD. Cassel threw four picks last week, is headed into a hornet’s nest this week. NO in desperate straits here after losing first two games on road by total of five points, despite scoring 55 points; they’ve won five of last six home openers, are 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine. Saints are 18-3 as home favorites last three years, 20-6-1 vs spread in last 27 non-divisional home games. Seven of their last ten home openers stayed under total.

Titans (1-1) @ Bengals (2-0) — Cincy looking like strong outfit after outgaining Atlanta by 163 yards with +3 turnover ratio in easy win, week after they pulled out divisional road win at Baltimore; Bengals won three of last four in series where road team won five of last seven meetings. Titans won six of last seven visits here, in what used to be divisional rivalry. Bengals covered last four tries as non-divisional home favorite, after being 7-21-1 in that role from ’04-’12; they’re 23-10 vs spread in game following their last 33 wins. Titans covered four of last six as road underdog, 11 of last 16 non-divisional road games- they’re 18-14-3 off a loss. Cincy will try to establish Bernard on ground after Dallas ran for 220 yards vs Titans last week.

Ravens (1-1) @ Browns (1-1) — Cleveland’s first two games were decided by total of five points; they’ve rallied to tie/take lead in both games-- their 24-18 win over Ravens in last meeting LY snapped 11-game series skid. Baltimore won five of last six visits here (their old home) with all five wins by 10+ points. Last 12 series games were all decided by 12+ points. Ravens lost 10 of last 13 road openers; they’re 5-10-1 vs spread on road last two years, 2-8 in last 10 road games SU. Hoyer is 4-1 as Browns’ starting QB; Cleveland put up 27-26 points vs two of better teams in NFL, though Saints have bad defense. Browns covered five of last seven divisional home games. Ravens are 7-11-1 in last 19 games where spread was 3 or less points.

Packers (1-1) @ Lions (1-1) — Green Bay won 15 of last 17 games in this rivalry, and Rodgers didn’t play in either loss; Pack split last four visits here- they were down 21-3 at home to Jets last week, after losing opener at Seattle, but rallied to even record. Pack covered 17 of last 24 NFC North road games; they’re 8-9 SU in last 17 road games, 4-9 vs spread in last 13 games on artificial turf, 8-11 in games with spread of 3 or less. Detroit is 8-15-1 vs spread in game following its last 24 losses; they’re 6-9-1 in games with spread of 3 or less, 8-4 in last 12 NFC North home games. Lions ran ball for only 76-70 yards in first two games. Pack lost field position by 14-6 yards in first two games; they have three 80+-yard TD drives.

Colts (0-2) @ Jaguars (0-2) — Jax has been outscored 75-10 in three halves since they led opener 17-0 at half in Philly; they’ve lost last three games with Indy by 17-24-20 points, after winning four of five vs Colts before that. Jags are 6-18-1 in last 25 games as home dog, are facing Colt squad that blew 20-6 3rd quarter lead Monday, after losing opener in Denver, so Indy is 0-2, but they played two of best three teams in NFL- now they’re playing one of worst. Indy won 27-10/37-3 in last two visits here; they’re 15-6-1 in last 22 games as a road favorite, 4-1-1 under Pagano. Over last six years, Colts are 13-4-1 as an AFC South road favorite. Jags lost five of last seven home openers, scoring total of 25 points in last three.

Raiders (0-2) @ Patriots (1-1) — New England won 11 of last 12 home openers, but are 3-5 vs spread in last eight; they’re 15-9 in last 24 games as a non-divisional home favorite, but 1-7 in last eight games when laying double digits. Pats won last three games with Oakland by 10-23-12 points. Raiders are only team starting a rookie QB; they’re just 5-21 on 3rd down, and lost opener in Swamp with a +2 turnover ratio (NFL teams are 17-2 this year with a +2 or better TO ratio). Oakland is 8-6-1 in last 15 games as a non-divisional road dog, but covered only once in last five games as a double digit dog. Patriots have only six second half points in two games, but they had big lead at half last week and didn’t need to score after halftime.

49ers (1-1) @ Cardinals (2-0) — Palmer’s arm is an issue; backup Stanton was 14-29/142 in win at Swamp last week, as Redbirds won despite being outgained by 75 yards- they were +4 in turnovers, won field position by 14 yards. Arizona lost nine of last ten games with 49ers, losing last four, with three of four by 12+ points; Niners won four of last five visits here, with three of the five decided by 4 or less points. SF allowed six first downs via penalty last week; they’re just 5-7 vs spread in last 12 divisional road games, compared to 14-6-1 in last 21 non-division road tilts; they’re 19-6-4 vs spread in game following last 29 losses. Arizona is 4-7-1 in NFC West home games, 7-3-1 after last 11 wins, 7-1-1 in games with spread of 3 or less.

Broncos (2-0) @ Seahawks (1-1) — Seattle crushed Broncs 43-8 in Super Bowl in February, are smarting after giving up 30 points in San Diego last week, with Bolts converting 10-17 on 3rd down. Seattle is 13-5 as home favorites under Carroll, 16-8-1 after a loss, 12-4 in non-divisional home games, 8-8-1 vs AFC teams. First road game for Denver squad that scored only 10 second half points in two home wins; Broncos won five of last seven visits here, are 4-6 in last ten road openers, but 4-2 as an underdog in road openers. Denver is 20-12-1 vs spread off a win under Fox, 4-3 as road dog under Fox. Last time they were a road dog was Week 5 of ’12. Denver is 7-4-2 vs spread in last 13 games vs AFC teams. Curious to see if #18 goes after mouthy CB Sherman the way Chargers did.

Chiefs (0-2) @ Dolphins (1-1) — KC was 2-14 in 2012, then started out 9-0 LY; now they’re on 2-8 skid after going -3 in turnovers in 0-2 start this year, with no takeaways (-3). Chiefs are 3-1 as road dog under Reid- they covered last five divisional road games. Over last decade, Miami is 11-29 as home favorite, 4-5 under Philbin; they have covered seven of last ten non-divisional home games. Fish won last three series games by 3-7-28 points, but teams haven’t met in three years; Chiefs lost seven of last eight visits to South Beach, but last visit was in ’06. Will south Florida heat wilt a depleted (seven starters out) Chief team? Thru two weeks, non-divisional home favorites are 8-11 vs spread league-wide.

Steelers (1-1) @ Panthers (2-0) — Since 2004, Steelers are 19-6 as an underdog of 3 or less points; second straight primetime road game for Pitt, which had three extra days to prep after Thursday loss in Baltimore. Steelers won last four games with Carolina since losing 18-14 here in ’96, with all four wins by 10+ points. Pitt is 21-18-1 vs spread after a loss (7-9 last two years), 10-6 in last 16 vs AFC teams. Panthers are 10-4-1 as home favorite under Rivera, 6-8-1 vs NFC teams, 10-4 off a win- they’re +6 in turnovers (+3 in both games) already, haven’t allowed a first half point. New Carolina receivers are doing fine; they averaged 6.3 yards/pass attempt at Tampa, 6.4 last week, with two different QBs playing.

Bears (1-1) @ Jets (1-1) — Chicago lost at home to Buffalo, won at SF, hard team to figure; they’ve only run ball for 132 yards in two games, have only four plays of 20+ yards- with their WRs, they should have more of those. Bears are 3-12-2 in last 17 games where spread was 3 or less points; they’ve won last three games with Jets by 7-10-4 points, are 3-1 vs Jets in Swamp, with average total 22.0 in those four games. Gang Green is 4-0-1 in last five vs NFC, 20-13 under Ryan when spread was 3 or less points- they’re 9-6-1 in last 16 non-divisional home games. Jets ran ball for 146 yards at Lambeau, had 21-3 lead, but couldn’t hold it for 2-0 start- they’ve forced only one turnover (-2) this season, but do have three TD drives of 80+ yards.

[TheGame]

Re: NFL Betting Info. Week 3

Week 3 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Chargers at Bills (-2½, 45½)

Week 2 Results:
San Diego bounced back from a crushing Week 1 loss at Arizona to take care of the Seahawks in their home opener, 30-21 as 4 ½-point underdogs. The Chargers have covered in each of their first two games in the ‘dog role.

The Bills improved to 2-0 for the first time since 2011 by beating up the Dolphins at home, 29-10. Buffalo has cashed the ‘under’ in each of the first two games, while averaging 26 points per game.

Previous meeting: The Chargers destroyed the Bills at Qualcomm Stadium in December 2011 with a 37-10 rout as seven-point favorites. Since 2000, the home team has won six of the past seven meetings, with the Bills posting a 3-1 home record in this span.

What to watch for: From 2010 through November 2012, the Chargers put together a dreadful 1-6 SU/ATS record in games played in the Eastern Time Zone. From December 2012 through the end of last season, San Diego improved to 4-2 SU/ATS, which included an overtime loss at Washington. Buffalo owns an 8-2 SU/ATS record as a home favorite since 2012, while covering nine of its past 10 overall at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

Redskins at Eagles (-6, 50)

Week 2 Results:
Washington rebounded from a season opening defeat at Houston, as the Redskins pounded the Jaguars, 41-10 as five-point favorites. The Redskins’ defense picked up 10 sacks, while overcoming an ankle injury to Robert Griffin III as Kirk Cousins threw for 250 yards and two touchdowns.

Philadelphia managed its second straight victory after trailing in the second half, as the Eagles knocked off the Colts with a last-second field goal, 30-27. The Eagles cashed as three-point ‘dogs, one week after covering a 10-point number in a 34-17 triumph over Jacksonville.

Previous meeting: The Eagles pulled off the season sweep of the Redskins last season, as Philadelphia scored a combined 57 points in the two wins. The Redskins have covered three of the previous five visits to Lincoln Financial Field, including outright victories in 2010 and 2012.

What to watch for: Under Chip Kelly, the Eagles have compiled a 4-6 ATS record at home, including four outright losses at Lincoln Financial Field in the role of a favorite. Since the start of last season, the Redskins have failed to cover six of their past seven games as a road underdog, including three straight losses to division foes on the highway.

Texans at Giants (PK, 41)

Week 2 Results:
Houston’s defense stepped up without top pick Jadeveon Clowney, keeping the Raiders out of the end zone until the fourth quarter in a 30-14 at Oakland. The Texans have allowed just 17 points during their 2-0 start, the second straight season Houston has won its first two games (finished last season 2-14).

The Giants have scored 14 points in each of their first two losses to Detroit and Arizona, while getting outscored 15-0 in the fourth quarter of last week’s 25-14 setback to the Cardinals.

Previous meeting: New York crushed Houston at Reliant Stadium as three-point underdogs in 2010 by a 34-10 count. Eli Manning tossed three touchdown passes in that victory, as the Giants are 2-1 in three lifetime meetings with the Texans.

What to watch for: Houston has split its last 10 road games against AFC opponents since 2009, while the Giants are just 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS since the start of last season at Met Life Stadium. Tom Coughlin’s team has struggled to cover against NFC foes recently, putting together an 0-7 ATS mark in its past seven interconference matchups.

Titans at Bengals (-6½, 42½)

Week 2 Results:
For as good as Tennessee looked in the opener at Kansas City, the Titans looked equally bad in a 26-10 setback to the Cowboys as three-point home favorites. Tennessee yielded 220 rushing yards to Dallas as the Titans fell to 1-6-2 ATS in the past nine home contests dating back to the start of last season.

The Bengals have looked extremely impressive through two wins, including last Sunday's 24-10 triumph over the Falcons as five-point home favorites. Cincinnati racked up 472 yards of offense against Atlanta's defense, while allowing just three points in the first half this season.

Previous meeting: Andy Dalton threw three touchdown passes in a 24-17 victory by the Bengals at LP Field in 2011. The Bengals erased a 17-7 deficit to pick up their third win over the Titans in four tries dating back to 2005.

What to watch for: Cincinnati has covered 10 straight regular season home games since the end of the 2012 season, including an 8-0 SU/ATS record in 2013. Each of the past six victories at Paul Brown Stadium have come by double-digits, while scoring at least 34 points five times. Tennessee owns a solid 6-2-1 ATS mark in its past nine road games, including a 4-2-1 ATS ledger against AFC opponents.

49ers (-3, 42) at Cardinals

Week 2 Results:
San Francisco squandered a 20-7 fourth quarter lead in a 27-20 setback to Chicago last Sunday night. The 49ers allowed just 216 yards of offense, but couldn't stop Jay Cutler, who threw four touchdown passes for the Bears.

The Cardinals are one of the surprising 2-0 teams in the league, especially since Carson Palmer missed last Sunday's win over the Giants. Drew Stanton stepped in and led a comeback victory, the second win for Arizona this season after they trailed in the fourth quarter.

Previous meeting: San Francisco has grabbed nine of the past 10 matchups with Arizona, including a season sweep in 2013. The Cardinals trailed the Niners, 22-20 halfway through the fourth quarter in their first meeting last season at Candlestick Park, but San Francisco scored 10 late points to cover as 10-point favorites. San Francisco needed a field goal in the final seconds to grab the season finale in Glendale, 23-20, the fourth win in the past five visits to University of Phoenix Stadium.

What to watch for: The 49ers own an impressive 7-0-1 ATS record in the past eight games as a road favorite, while posting a 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS ledger on the road off a loss under Jim Harbaugh. Since 2009, the Cardinals have covered 13 of their past 20 games in the role of a home underdog, while Arizona has won six of their previous seven contests coming off an away victory.

Broncos at Seahawks (-5, 48)

Week 2 Results:
Denver remained unbeaten in spite of not covering for the second straight game, holding off Kansas City, 24-17 as 13-point home favorites. The Broncos have jumped out to huge halftime leads in their first two victories (24-7 over Colts, 21-10 over Chiefs), but somehow have allowed Indianapolis and Kansas City to keep things interesting in the second half.

Seattle crushed Green Bay in the opener, but fell back to Earth in a 30-21 defeat at San Diego as 4 ½-point road favorites. The Seahawks yielded 377 yards and played from behind for the final three quarters, while cashing the 'over' for the second straight game.

Previous meeting: The Seahawks dominated the Broncos in last season's Super Bowl, 43-8 as Seattle scored on a defensive touchdown, a kickoff return for a touchdown, and a safety to claim the franchise's first title. This is Denver's first trip to Seattle since 2002, as the last three meetings have gone 'over' the total.

What to watch for: Seattle has won 18 of its past 19 games at CenturyLink Field, including seven straight covers as a touchdown favorite or less. Peyton Manning has been listed as an underdog five times since becoming the quarterback of the Broncos, as Denver has cashed just once in this stretch, a 35-24 victory at San Diego back in 2012.

[TheGame]

Re: NFL Betting Info. Week 3

Total Talk - Week 3
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 2 Recap

For the second consecutive week bettors watched the ‘under’ go 9-7 in the NFL, which brings the season numbers to 18-14 (56%). If you happened to follow the games live or viewed replays, you could argue that the ‘under’ should’ve performed better.

The Saints-Browns ‘over’ cashed with a late field goal and the 49ers-Bears helped the cause with 21 points in the final 15 minutes. The one outcome that likely pissed off some ‘under’ bettors was the Texans-Raiders game. Houston was up 30-7 late in the fourth and Oakland decides to work on its two minute drill. Sure enough, they drive down the field calling timeouts, converting fourth downs and end up scoring a meaningless touchdown to push the game ‘over’ the number (41). What was probably more comical is that Oakland head coach Dennis Allen attempted an onside kick after the score with 18 seconds left. If your offshore outfit has a prop bet on which coach gets canned first, sprinkle a little on DA.

Divisional Battles

We have five divisional matchups this week and two of them are expected to be shootouts with numbers in the fifties. Keep in mind that there were six games last week that had totals listed at 49 points or higher and the ‘under’ went 4-2 in those contests. This week, there are only four games in that neighborhood which tells me the oddsmakers believe the “Fantasy Football” tendencies in the NFL are slowly declining.

Washington at Philadelphia: This total is hovering between 50 and 51 points, which is a tad lower than the two meetings last season (51.5, 54.5). Most would believe this total would come down to the Eagles offense against the Redskins defense but I’d be careful to overlook the Washington offense. Last week, backup quarterback Kirk Cousins had 10 possessions and the Redskins scored six times (34 points) with him under center. It was against Jacksonville but Philadelphia’s offense only managed 24 versus that same unit in Week 1.

Green Bay at Detroit: This is the highest total (53) listed in Week 3. Despite the expectations for fireworks, the ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run in this series and four of the last five encounters between the pair at Ford Field have gone ‘under’ the number.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville: This is a tough total to handicap in my opinion. The Jaguars and Colts have both watched the ‘over’ go 2-0 in their first two games but the trend in this series is to expect a low-scoring affair. The ‘under’ has cashed in six straight and we haven’t seen a game with more than 40 combined points scored during this span.

San Francisco at Arizona: Similar to the Colts-Jags matchup, this total is a toss-up and the low total (42) does provide some insight on both teams. Arizona won’t have Carson Palmer under center for the second straight week and backup Drew Stanton appears to be on a short leash. The Cardinals have 10 scores in two games, six of them field goals and one of the four touchdowns was on a punt return. San Francisco is a very tough team to figure out right now. The 49ers have scored 48 points in two games, 45 of those have come in the first-half. And defensively, they allowed 45 in two games with 35 coming in the second-half. Four of the last five encounters between these teams have gone ‘over’ the number.

Thursday Night OVER Trend

I spoke about this system in last week’s “Total Talk” and it connected, fairly easily too. For those who missed it, the ‘over’ in Seattle-San Diego was the play.
Going back to last season, this angle now stands at 15-2-1 (88%).

All you have to do is find out who played at home on Thursday in the previous week and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue. The Seahawks opened the season on Thursday versus the Packers and then played at San Diego last Sunday. The Chargers won 30-21 and the ‘over’ (45) hit.

This week’s ‘over’ situation is on the Baltimore-Cleveland matchup since the Ravens hosted the Steelers on Thursday in Week 2. In the past 10 head-to-head meetings between this pair, the ‘under’ has gone 8-1-1 and they’ve been clear-cut winners too. The highest combined points during this span was 42 points, which occurred last season and that total ended up as a push for most bettors.

So do you play the ‘over’ blindly based on the hot trend? Certainly a fair question and I do believe things eventually balance out in the long run but there are some numbers that could have you leaning ‘over’ despite this streak.

For starters, Cleveland’s defense is allowing 450 yards per game, which is the worst in the league. Let’s be fair, Baltimore isn’t a great defensive team anymore, especially on the road. Last year, they allowed an average of 26.4 PPG away from home and Sunday will be the Ravens first road game.

Another thing to look for in this matchup is the tempo. The league average for plays per game is 64 after two weeks. Cleveland has pushed the ball more this season and is averaging 68 per game. Meanwhile, Baltimore has really stepped on the pedal as it leads the league with an average of 75.

Under the Lights

Based on the closing numbers, the ‘over’ went 2-0 in the primetime games last week. The San Francisco-Chicago matchup jumped as high as 49 points but closed at 47½ and the Bears captured a 28-20 road win, which probably helped savvy arbitrage bettors cash both sides. This past Thursday, the Falcons hammered the Buccaneers 56-14 and the ‘over’ cashed early in the third quarter. Including that result, the ‘over’ is now 6-2 (75%) in primetime matchups.

Pittsburgh at Carolina: We have a low total on SNF and it’s hard to imagine Pittsburgh having any real success against Carolina’s defense, which is ranked second in PPG (10.5). Also, hard to ignore the fact that the Steelers haven’t scored an offensive touchdown in their last six quarters. Dating back to last season, Carolina has watched the ‘under’ go 8-2 at home.

Chicago at N.Y. Jets: After watching New York get diced up at Green Bay in the second-half last week, I’m assuming that Rex Ryan will try to slow this game down and keep the Bears offense on the sidelines. Easier said than done! Chicago has the ability to score in bunches, especially in non-conference matchups. In their last 10 against the AFC, the Bears have seen the ‘over’ go 7-3 while averaging 29.4 PPG.

Fearless Predictions

After two weeks the bankroll is in the red for $230 and I can provide plenty of answers but at the end of the day, my reasons would just be excuses. Hank Moody would say, “Do better tomorrow.” As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Cleveland-Baltimore 41
Best Under: Indianapolis-Jacksonville 45½
Best Team Total: Over Baltimore 21

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 32 Baltimore-Cleveland
Under 56 Oakland-New England
Over 40 Minnesota-New Orleans

[TheGame]

Re: NFL Betting Info. Week 3

MNF - Bears at Jets
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Week 3 of the NFL season concludes at Met Life Stadium with two teams that got off to significantly different starts last Sunday and finished with surprising results. The Bears fell behind the 49ers, 20-7 after three quarters, but Chicago outscored San Francisco, 21-0 in the fourth quarter to stun the Niners by a 28-20 count as seven-point underdogs. Jay Cutler tossed three touchdowns in the final quarter, including two to Brandon Marshall to even Chicago’s record at 1-1.

The Jets didn’t have as much luck on the highway, squandering a 21-3 advantage in a 31-24 setback at Green Bay. New York opened as eight-point road underdogs, but that number dropped to seven by kickoff, so it depends on when you grabbed the Jets to judge it as either a Jets’ push or a Jets’ win. The Jets had an opportunity to tie the game with five minutes left in the fourth quarter on a Geno Smith touchdown pass to Jeremy Kurley on fourth down, but a timeout was called on the New York sideline, negating the score.

New York returns home owning a 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS record at Met Life Stadium since the start of 2013, which includes a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS mark in the favorite role. The only ATS loss as a favorite in this span came to the Raiders in Week 1, as Oakland scored a late touchdown to cover as 6 ½-point underdogs, but the Jets held on for a 19-14 victory. New York outgained Oakland, 402-158, while limiting six of its last nine home opponents to 20 points or fewer.

The Bears hit the road once again racking up the cross-country miles after last week’s trip to San Francisco, then returning to the Windy City, followed by its first road matchup with the Jets since 2006. The last time the Bears and Jets hooked up in 2010 at Soldier Field, Chicago held off New York, 38-34 in a back-and-forth affair. Chicago cashed as 1½-point favorites as Cutler threw three touchdown passes and Matt Forte rushed for 113 yards and a score.

Under Marc Trestman, Chicago has owned the AFC with four wins in five tries. The lone defeat came in the season opener in overtime against Buffalo, but the Bears scored 40 points at Pittsburgh and 38 at Cleveland last season, while going 4-1 to the ‘over’ in the past five interconference matchups. The Bears are 7-2 to the ‘over’ in nine road games in Trestman’s short tenure, which includes the comeback victory at San Francisco on a 47 total with 48 points.

The Jets are playing their fifth Monday night game at Met Life Stadium under Rex Ryan, splitting the first four contests, while covering three times. In its lone Monday night contest last season, New York went to Atlanta and shocked the Falcons as 10-point ‘dogs, 30-28 in Smith’s primetime debut, as the former West Virginia standout tossed three touchdowns.

The Bears put together a pair of dominating efforts in Monday games in 2013, knocking off the Packers as 10-point underdogs, 27-20 (even though Aaron Rodgers left the contest early), while routing the Cowboys, 45-28 as 1½-point home favorites. Dating back to 2011, Chicago has won five of its past six games on Monday night, including three victories away from Soldier Field.

The favorites fared well in Week 3, posting an 11-4 SU and 9-6 ATS record. Favorites of less than a field goal put together a 4-3 SU/ATS mark, including home victories by the Giants and Lions are short ‘chalk.’ Monday night home teams own a 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS record this season, as the Colts fell short against the Eagles last week at Lucas Oil Stadium.

The Jets opened as 1 ½-point favorites, but that number has slowly crept to 2½ at several books. The total has dropped from 46 to 44½ at most spots as temperatures are expected to be in the mid-60’s. The game kicks off at 8:35 PM and can be seen nationally on ESPN.