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  • #1

    CC games

    In the NFC only & since the '02 re-align, any fav of more than -1 w/a total more than 41 off a s/u win as a home fav of more than -7 in which they scored less than 32pts & lost ats by more than -2pts, now vs a non-div conf opp:

    KillerSports.com

    5-0 s/u...by 22.40ppg
    &
    5-0 ats...by 15.80ppg
    &
    5-0 o/u...by 12.40ppg

    but wait, it gets even better...if they are favs of less than -10.5:

    KillerSports.com

    4-0 s/u...by 24.5ppg
    &
    4-0 ats...by 18.88ppg
    &
    4-0 o/u...by 14.5ppg

    avg final score: 41.5 - 17.0

    look at all those rushing yards per games: 280.8 vs 72.0

    2 best bets:

    49'ers-7
    &
    Over 51'
    Tags: None
  • #2
    The 49'ers since 2019 as a fav of more than -3 anywhere vs a conf opp, 49'ers off a s/u win but ats loss in which the final went under the total:

    KillerSports.com

    4-0 s/u...by 25.0ppg
    &
    4-0 ats...by 16.5ppg
    &
    4-0 o/u...by 13.88ppg

    avg final score: 41.2 - 16.2

    look at all those rushing yards per games: 176.0 vs 129.8

    2 best bets:

    49'ers-7
    &
    Over 51'

    Comment

    • #3
      Guys, I was rooting for the Lions to win the WC, which they did & I was rooting for them to win the Div Rd, which they did. But now the sh*t's about to hit the fan as they step way up in class & it gets for real, real on the road.

      As of today, right now, I have the Packers rated a lot higher than the Lions & don't forget...the Packers went into Detroit & destroyed the Lions. And they destroyed the Cowboys, on the road. And they almost beat the #1-seed 49'ers on the road. But that was last week & this is this week.

      And the Lions haven't played outdoors in forever...since Dec. 10th when they lost s/u to the Bears 13 - 28.

      Plus, the Lions have 2 O' linemen hurting...bad-d-d. And their most important 1 is Ragnow, their Center.

      Don't forget...the 49'ers are rabid to get to & win the SB...especially after losing as badly as they did last year...on the road.

      Well...they're at home.

      Comment

      • #4
        Good stuff, x.

        Comment

        • #5
          There's a lot of work already done in the braintrust thread & we're not through yet.

          Comment

          • #6
            Keep it going !! Good stuff !!

            Comment

            • #7
              Have 2 agree. Anyone expecting another sub par san fran in for a surprise. a PAINFUL SURPIRSE!!

              Comment

              • #8
                Would it surprise me if the Lions cover ats or even win s/u? No...not at all. Maybe that's why people are hedging their bets over at sao:

                NFL Schedules and Scores (scoresandodds.com)

                64% of the $$$ on SF-7
                but
                75% of the m/l $$$ on Det s/u

                Comment

                • #9
                  Any CC game home fav of more than -3.5 w/a total between 38.5 & 56.5 off a prev bye, teams prev line minus opp prev line +6 is greater than 0:

                  KillerSports.com

                  2-0 s/u...by 17.0ppg
                  &
                  2-0 ats...by 8.5ppg
                  &
                  2-0 0/u...by 14.0ppg

                  avg final score: 39.0 - 22.0

                  both games won s/u by 17pts each...both lined at -8.5 each...will SF reach -8.5?

                  SF-7'
                  &
                  Over 51'

                  btw...that equation is -10.5--6.5+6>0...-4+6>0...-4+6=2 which is greater than 0
                  Last edited by Riderx; 01-26-2024, 06:34 AM.

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Forgot my playoff record: WC...10-6, Div...5-5: 15-11 ats, o/u & m/l dogs

                    A question I pose from one gambler to all other gamblers:

                    "Why is the #-1 seed & #1-seed overall (Balt), off a blowout win & with more wins than the other #1-seed (SF) who is barely off a win, only half the size of a fav (-3' vs -7) vs a #3-seed (KC) off a road game as a dog with less wins than other #3-seed (Det), who is off an ats win as a fav at home?"

                    Just something to think about, as a gambler.

                    It appears I'm the only one on KC+3', KC m/l & Under 44'...which I'm okay with.

                    I will try to post all I have on this game by Sunday morning.

                    btw...100% rain & wind at M&T Bank for the game:

                    NFL Playoffs 2024: Tracking Weather Forecasts for Chiefs vs. Ravens, Lions vs. 49ers | News, Scores, Highlights, Stats, and Rumors | Bleacher Report

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      John, my guess is because the Raven’s opponent has Patrick Mahomes at QB. He’s a legit 1st ballot HOFer already and seems to will his team to a lot of big victories. That, plus his ATS stats in games when he’s a dog of +3 or more are quite impressive. These things are true and the public knows it. (not calling you Joe Pub!!)

                      Ask yourself this. What would the spread be if KC was playing Detroit on a neutral field? I have no idea but I assume KC would be favored by +/- a FG.

                      Good news for you is I’m on Baltimore!! Got them early at -3.

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Guys...I'm more than a little bit shocked & amazed that it's been almost a week now & nobody has brought up one of the simplest handicapping tools in everyone's arsenal:

                        The Chiefs, since Nov. 15th, 2015, as a road dog vs any team they lost to s/u in their prev m/u:

                        KillerSports.com

                        7-0 s/u
                        &
                        7-0 ats

                        & if they are dogs between 2.5 & 8 w/a total less than 50.5:

                        Scores of: 29-13 & 23-16 (That over does not look good)

                        That's just for starters & I'm just getting started. Since the '02 re-align, Patrick Mahomes is the only player to win the MVP & win the SB in the same year. Not even the goat Tom Brady did that!

                        The Chiefs are in rarified air & they don't have just one king (Mahomes), all the players & coaches are kings because they are the defending SB champions.

                        And every single one of them will fight to the death to defend the crown. This is going to be a true championship game. And Vegas is going to give me the defending MVP, the defending SB champions & +4 points?

                        Sh*t-t-t...I'll take that bet on any given Sunday.

                        As Gambrinus says: "GimmeTheDog!"

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          got this as a subset for the over adding previous matchup between them played on grass.. 24.5/26 pt overs and 41/42 points scored by the chiefs


                          https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

                          _______________________________________________
                          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            Originally posted by bleeker View Post
                            got this as a subset for the over adding previous matchup between them played on grass.. 24.5/26 pt overs and 41/42 points scored by the chiefs

                            https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
                            I'm on the Chiefs definitely but not the Over, those 2 games were played in 80-degrees & 75-degrees...Chiefs/Ravens weather will be cold & nasty, just like the game...

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              Home favs of more than -5, off a playoff game in which they had a bye beforehand, team lost their last playoff game on the road by more than -7pts:

                              KillerSports.com

                              2-0 s/u
                              &
                              2-0 ats

                              '14...Patriots...45-7
                              '16...Falcons...44-21

                              49'ers-7
                              &
                              Over 51'

                              Comment

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