Week 18 queries for our brain trust

[Michelangelo]

My guess is that you guys are gonna focus on Week 18 stuff. This week will be different than any other for different reasons for different teams.

Thanks guys.

[Michelangelo]

The Rules for Handicapping Week 18

It seemed like yesterday we were preparing for Week 1 of the NFL season with preseason data, free agent transactions and past performances of the coaches to help our handicapping. We didn’t have to worry about motivation as all 32 teams were highly engaged and eager to show their stuff. Eighteen weeks later, we face a similar challenge of handicapping games, without the universal belief everyone is engaged toward winning. So many different variables make handicapping Week 18 the hardest week of the season.
One thing we can agree on is teams that cannot improve their playoff position will rest starters. Unlike the preseason, teams cannot rest everyone; the rosters are not at 80 players. Most starters will have to play, as only seven players are allowed on the inactive list. This means for teams like Baltimore, San Francisco, Cleveland and Kansas City, we won’t see their starting quarterback or any key player who has a slight injury.
Everyone else is fair game and will play with the motivation to play well. No one will back off. Baltimore has nothing to play for, but Baltimore loves to win, and with Tyler Huntley under center and their disdain for the Steelers, the Ravens absent most of their key players will play hard and want to win. Which leads us to our first rule of handicapping Week 18,

Rule 1: Don’t assume a team won’t try.
All teams will try or play to their normal capabilities. No one will tank. For some reason, people who don’t understand how the NFL works and how competitive coaches and teams are, believe tanking is part of the conversation this week. Tanking is for the NBA, not the NFL.
You cannot get a coach who is on the hot seat to tank. Just ask the Texans last year when Lovie Smith was determined to win his last game as their coach. Everyone was up in arms because Smith won the game, hurting the Texans' draft position, when 12 months later, the Texans ended up with a great quarterback by picking second, not first. Fans make too much of the draft order as if teams are so skilled at drafting that there won’t be any mistakes or mis-evolutions. Remember, Lamar Jackson went 32nd overall. Patrick Mahomes went 10th. Was tanking needed to acquire an MVP quarterback? Nope.

Rule 2: If a coach is certain to come back for another season, but his team isn’t in contention, you can count on them playing, preparing, and trying to win.
Use their power ranking as if it were Week 8. Sean Payton of the Broncos will want to use the last game of the year against the Raiders to springboard his 2024 planning. How a player prepares for a meaningless game is a great indicator for Payton when deciding if the player fits for the upcoming season. Payton will let everyone know this game means something for their future. The Broncos might be eliminated from contention, but they won’t be eliminated from wanting to play their best. As for their opponent, the Raiders, this is a little harder handicap.

When dealing with a coach with an uncertain job status, handling their motivation is tricky, especially when it comes to an interim situation. Antonio Pierce isn’t a sure thing to return, the assistant coaches all know their job status is in question, and many players will be looking to cash in on their incentives. You can bet that the first quarter will consist of the Raider offense looking to get Davante Adams the ball, as he has 98 catches and wants to be over 100. Will the Raiders prepare and play with great effort and intensity? That isn’t a sure thing, which leads us to our third rule.

Rule 3: Avoid betting teams with interim coaches.
Having an interim coach is like having a substitute teacher running the class, especially if the owner isn’t willing to publicly back the coach. Pierce has lobbied hard for the job and won four games, but his lack of aggressiveness in Indy last week makes everyone unsure how owner Mark Davis will react. Pierce spent a long time meeting with Davis after the game before his press conference, which isn’t a good sign for his future. We know Giff Smith isn’t coming back for the Chargers, and we also know they will rest their players, so even though the Chiefs have nothing to play for and won’t play Mahomes, can you count on the Chargers as a slight favorite?
A perfect example of not betting interim coaches with no chance of returning happened in Jacksonville last week when the Panthers laid a big goose egg. Owner David Tepper was furious, throwing a drink at a Jaguars fan, which looked bad for him and even worse for every member of their organization. Yes, the Panthers seem to play better at home, but this week is the last week of school. Do you think Chris Tabor, the interim coach, can get his players to focus on the Bucs and not what will happen? I highly doubt it, but it doesn’t make me want to run to the window and bet the Bucs at -5. This leads me to rule number four.

Rule 4: Teams that have everything to play for play tend to play tight and struggle to handle the pressure.
Last year, the Packers needed to beat the Lions at home to become a playoff team. Instead, they played poorly and lost. There is a tendency for players and coaches to overemphasize the importance of the game and discuss openly the implications, which then makes everyone scared to cut it loose. The Lions fit rule number 2 and went out and beat the Packers, who couldn’t hold the lead late in the game. The Lions won in Green Bay and used the game as a playoff-type experience, which helped them this season.
Tampa was bad last week vs. the Saints at home, so don’t assume they will be great this week, as the pressure of the moment can cause poor play. This game looks too easy on paper, and we all know that easy-looking games are never easy.

Rule 5: Teams that have built momentum want to maintain momentum.
Last year, Cincinnati and Minnesota had an outside chance to gain the second seed going into Week 18. Both teams were playing well and had great momentum going into the final week. Cincinnati thought they would play the Ravens in the Wildcard round the following week, which didn’t make them hold back, and they covered the nine-point spread. The Vikings traveled to Chicago and easily covered the seven-point spread. Both teams could have rested and regrouped for the playoffs. They both understood that playing well and maintaining a performance standard far outweighed taking their foot off the gas.
The Rams fit this profile. They didn’t play as well in New York against the Giants last week, and still need a win to secure the sixth seed, so playing well against the 49ers is critical. If they win, in all probability, they face the Lions in Detroit. If they lose, they might have to go to Dallas. For me, this is an easy one, keep playing well, keep the momentum in your favor and win the game.
Best of luck to your handicapping Week 18. Remember, trust what you know, not what you assume, and let it rip.

///

Credit above to Michael Lombardi brought to the RX by carlitosway

[Chamblin]

[Riderx]

Jim, that's a great read. Thanks. Since the NFL went to a 17-game regular season in 2021, the last game is always against a division opponent. Here's a list of all the home teams:

KillerSports.com

[bleeker]

excellent perspectives on the final week jim and nice job last week


start it off with this ..

last week
saturday
home
p: didn't score >= 26 pts more than expected
streak between 4 wins and 2 losses
line range 7 fav /9 dog
1991

0-22 (-9.02)


https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++



hou -1

[Michelangelo]

Brought the copy and paste hoping that it might stimulate some queries by you guys.If I think of any I'll post.

[BT]

Excellent read, Jim. Great perspective. I hope rule #4 affects Buffalo more than Miami this week! Thanks for sharing!!

[bleeker]

(week =18 and season >=2021 or week =17 and season <=2020) and wins =13 and line >=-8 and p:TOM >=-6 and p:M2 >=-3



last week
13 win team
fav <=8 or dog
p: didn't have >=7 less turnovers than opp
p: weren't trailing >= 4 at the half

1-21 (-12.55)

of course the lone win was bal @ home vs pit in 2019 ..28-10 (-1)


https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++



pit -3.5

[bleeker]

final picks boldface

[Michelangelo]

(week =18 and season >=2021 or week =17 and season <=2020) and wins =13 and line >=-8 and p:TOM >=-6 and p:M2 >=-3



last week
13 win team
fav <=8 or dog
p: didn't have >=7 less turnovers than opp
p: weren't trailing >= 4 at the half

1-21 (-12.55)

of course the lone win was bal @ home vs pit in 2019 ..28-10 (-1)


https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++



pit -3.5

"of course" crazy how that happens!

[bleeker]

(week =18 and season >=2021 or week =17 and season <=2020) and wins =13 and line >=-8 and p:TOM >=-6 and p:M2 >=-3



last week
13 win team
fav <=8 or dog
p: didn't have >=7 less turnovers than opp
p: weren't trailing >= 4 at the half

1-21 (-12.55)

of course the lone win was bal @ home vs pit in 2019 ..28-10 (-1)


https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++



pit -3.5

p: first downs <=29 takes out that game

https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

[bleeker]

totals < 40 are are blowouts


https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

[bleeker]

totals < 40 are are blowouts


https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

of those 4 the really big dog was the smallest margin by far ..other 3 all 20+

[bleeker]

pit -4

[Riderx]

Great work, Glenn...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Got a rare spot but with serious incentive. There have only been 2 previous games, but they both happened since 2019. Any conf road fav of more than -12 w/a total of 44+ in the last game of the regular season:

KillerSports.com

2-0 s/u...by 33.5ppg
&
2-0 ats...by 19.5ppg

s/u wins by 32 & 35. And vs div opps.

Avg final score: 40 - 6.5

Dallas was handed a gift from the heavens, as they were extremely fortunate to win last week vs Detroit & Philly lost straight-up at home to Ariz, who also beat Dallas early in the season.

Now, the Cowboys can clinch the #2-seed for the playoffs & stay home until the CC game (as long as they win) & not go on the road if the 49'ers somehow lose at home in week 20.

in 2019, Drew Brees led the Saints to a 42-10 win over div opp Car
in 2020, Lamar Jackson led the Ravens to a 38-3 win over div opp Cin
in 2023, Dak Prescott leads the Cowboys over div opp Wash

Say good-bye to Riverboat Ron & hello to Bill Belly

Dallas-13'