Week 17 queries for our braintrust

[Michelangelo]

Go to it guys. Thanks.

[Riderx]

Since the NFL went to an extended season in '21, any week 17 non-div dog of less than +7 vs an opp with at least 11 wins:

season>=2021
week=17
D
NDIV
line<7
o:wins>10

KillerSports.com

3-0 s/u
&
3-0 ats

I know Brian will like this one...

Miami+4
&
Miami m/l

(road teams are 0-2 o/u...Under 47 Mia/Balt)

Happy New Year!!!

[Riderx]

Since the '02 re-align, non-div conf road dogs with at least 10 wins off a s/u win as a road fav, team was not in the playoffs last year & not a playoff game:

season>=2002
ACD
NDIV
p:AFW
wins>9
playoffs=0
tpS(playoffs=1)=0

KillerSports.com

2-0 o/u...by 10.25ppg

avg total: 54.2

Over 53' Lions/Cowboys on Saturday night

I'm scratching this play...

[BT]

Since the NFL went to an extended season in '21, any week 17 non-div dog of less than +7 vs an opp with at least 11 wins:

season>=2021
week=17
D
NDIV
line<7

KillerSports.com

3-0 s/u
&
3-0 ats

I know Brian will like this one...

Miami+4
&
Miami m/l

(road teams are 0-2 o/u...Under 47 Mia/Balt)

Happy New Year!!!

I sure as sh*t am happy to see this, x!! Maybe the short week for Balt, and playing a physical game against SF, will benefit Miami. Thanks, bud!!

[BT]

Any way to find out how a projected #1 conference seed (Balt) does the week after playing the other conference projected #1 seed (SF) on the road, when playing at home? Maybe after wk 14 and when they will be home the current week.

And vice versa for SF … home last week (for conference top seeds) and then on the road the current week?

Hope that’s clear. Thanks fellas!!

[Riderx]

Brian, I'm just going off of last week's non-conf teams where both had 10+ wins, as we looked at in the braintrust thread last week...

if they were at Home & now Road favs in week 17:

KillerSports.com

&

if they were on the Road & now Home favs in week 17:

KillerSports.com

[Riderx]

The 49'ers are in a rare spot... Any non-div conf road fav of more than -10, off a s/u loss as a home fav in which they lost ats by more than -14pts:

p:HFL
ACF
line<-10
NDIV
p:ats margin<-14

KillerSports.com

2-0 ats...SF-13'
&
0-2 o/u...Under 48'

'91...Wash won the SB
'16...NE won the SB
'23...SF ?

[Thomas]

In week 17 since '21 teams with 11 or more wins are 2-8 ats

week=17 and season>=2021 and S(W@team, N=15)>=11


https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

[rolltide]

i still have to run my week specific stuff but here's my normal weekly systems

32-1 = LAR (away pacific vs east after -1/+1 turnover margin, good offense)
21-1 = NYJ (oppose late game NDIV fav covered b2b games but lost or won <3 h2h last game)
86-29 = NYJ, CAR
53-6 = ATL
39-9 = SF
34-4 = SF
45-5 = NYJ
54-21 = DAL, BUG, PHI (7th home game, 6-0 ytd, 5+ fav. 70-7 SU)
28-6 = SF
44-12 = KC (bad turnover team vs NDIV)
54-21 = LAR, SF
53-22 = BUF
66-26 = ATL
53-12 = NYG
35-2 = SF (late season, 2+ straight losses bad team vs good team DD dog)

26-71 ou = LAC/DEN u
4-52 ou = DAL/DET u (bad LY off away fav 6+ win vs team off negative turnovers)
2-24 ou = TB/NO u (after b2b2b wins as dog or tiny fav)
7-62 ou = SF/WAS u, MIN/GB u (fav, great LY, off loss as dog or small fav giving up 4+ sacks and 1+ turnover)
98-201 ou = DAL/DET u (ran 64+ plays vs opp that ran <52 plays in a 1 score game)
8-61 ou = WAS/SF u
9-75 ou = WAS/SF u
15-57 ou = PIT/SEA u (non-conf SUND/MON low total, AFC away)

[Riderx]

For TNF...

Any road dog of more than +3 on short rest, off a s/u win in which their opp scored more than 24pts:

AD
line>3
rest<4
p:W
po:points>24

KillerSports.com

0-7 s/u...by -26.43ppg
&
0-7 ats...by -18.86ppg

Avg final score: 12.4 - 38.9

against Jets+7'

take Clev-7'

&

KillerSports.com

2-0 s/u...by 25.5ppg
&
2-0 ats...by 13.5ppg

Avg final score: 30.5 - 5.0

opp avg total yards: 145/game

Clev-7'

[Riderx]

Just since the new 17-game schedule started in '21...

Week 17 home teams before going on the road:

KillerSports.com

&

Week 17 road teams before being at home:

KillerSports.com

[Riderx]

Possible shoot-out...

Since the '02 re-align, week 17 non-conf home favs on at least a 3-game losing streak:

HF
streak<-2
week=17
season>=2002
conference!=o:conference

KillerSports.com

0-2 s/u
&
0-2 ats
&
2-0 o/u...by 16.25ppg

scores of: 28-31 & 24-31

avg total: 40.8

avg total combined rush+pass yards: 881 (no defense)

all 3 games on grass

Car+6'
&
Car m/l
&
Over 38

[Riderx]

After week 2, dogs of more than +3 on short rest, team scored more than 21pts in the 1st-Half & the total went Over by more than 14pts last game:

week>2
line>3
rest<4
p:P1+p:P2>21
p:ou margin>14

KillerSports.com

0-7 s/u...by -26.29ppg
&
0-7 ats...by -16.93ppg

if their opp is off a road game:

KillerSports.com

0-3 s/u...by -30.00ppg
&
0-3 ats...by -21.00ppg
&
3-0 o/u

s/u losses by -27, -32 & -31

scores of: 14-41, 10-42 & 21-52

avg t/o's: 3.0 - 0.3

their opps scored DD in the 1st, 2nd & 3rd Qtrs in all 3 games

up 27-0, 28-0 & 31-14 at the Halves

up 41-7, 42-0 & 45-14 after the 3rd

Cleve-7'

might be able to find some good alternate game plays in there, too

[rolltide]

i still have to run my week specific stuff but here's my normal weekly systems

32-1 = LAR (away pacific vs east after -1/+1 turnover margin, good offense)
21-1 = NYJ (oppose late game NDIV fav covered b2b games but lost or won <3 h2h last game)
86-29 = NYJ, CAR
53-6 = ATL
39-9 = SF
34-4 = SF
45-5 = NYJ
54-21 = DAL, BUG, PHI (7th home game, 6-0 ytd, 5+ fav. 70-7 SU)
28-6 = SF
44-12 = KC (bad turnover team vs NDIV)
54-21 = LAR, SF
53-22 = BUF
66-26 = ATL
53-12 = NYG
35-2 = SF (late season, 2+ straight losses bad team vs good team DD dog)

26-71 ou = LAC/DEN u
4-52 ou = DAL/DET u (bad LY off away fav 6+ win vs team off negative turnovers)
2-24 ou = TB/NO u (after b2b2b wins as dog or tiny fav)
7-62 ou = SF/WAS u, MIN/GB u (fav, great LY, off loss as dog or small fav giving up 4+ sacks and 1+ turnover)
98-201 ou = DAL/DET u (ran 64+ plays vs opp that ran <52 plays in a 1 score game)
8-61 ou = WAS/SF u
9-75 ou = WAS/SF u
15-57 ou = PIT/SEA u (non-conf SUND/MON low total, AFC away)

week 17 specific
40-16 = PHI, KC
32-9 = JAX, KC
31-4 = NO (DIV, 1 less win, <9 wins, and <3 sacks per game)
20-5 = CHI
58-30 = BUF, SF
73-36 = NO, LAC
26-0 = BUF (11+ fav won 10+ last year week > 16 and season > 1997 and line<-10.5 and H and PRSW>9 and total>35.5 and p:dpa<21 and not 0<p:ats margin<4.5 and wins<16)

[bleeker]

After week 2, dogs of more than +3 on short rest, team scored more than 21pts in the 1st-Half & the total went Over by more than 14pts last game:

week>2
line>3
rest<4
p:P1+p:P2>21
p:ou margin>14

KillerSports.com

0-7 s/u...by -26.29ppg
&
0-7 ats...by -16.93ppg

if their opp is off a road game:

KillerSports.com

0-3 s/u...by -30.00ppg
&
0-3 ats...by -21.00ppg
&
3-0 o/u

s/u losses by -27, -32 & -31

scores of: 14-41, 10-42 & 21-52

avg t/o's: 3.0 - 0.3

their opps scored DD in the 1st, 2nd & 3rd Qtrs in all 3 games

up 27-0, 28-0 & 31-14 at the Halves

up 41-7, 42-0 & 45-14 after the 3rd

Cleve-7'

might be able to find some good alternate game plays in there, too

nice system..great call !