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  • #1

    Thanksgiving week queries

    actionsports did a nice job with some basic Tgiving Day trends ... interesting that every huge public bet hits. tracking SF and DET

    Restore The Roar


    Lions Favored on Thanksgiving

    This is the Lions first game as a favorite on Thanksgiving since 2016. Detroit is 8-0 SU as a favorite on Thanksgiving in the past 30 years.

    Lions are favored vs. the Packers in both their meetings this season. This is the first time that has happened since 2017 and just the second time since both 1990 and 1991.
    Our Favorite Thanksgiving


    Feast Week

    If the Lions, Cowboys and 49ers all close as 7-pt favorites or higher, it will be the first Thanksgiving slate with three TD favorites since we added a third game back in 2006. TD favorites or higher are 21-2 SU and 17-6 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2006.

    The last Thanksgiving slate where we had every game close -7 or higher was back in 2001 with Brian Griese vs. Ryan Leaf and Brett Favre vs. Charlie Batch.
    Turkey Trip


    Road Warriors

    Since 2004, favorites on Thanksgiving are 46-8 straight up (SU) and 36-18 against the spread (ATS). In that span, road favorites are 24-1 SU and 19-6 ATS on Thanksgiving with the only loss coming back in 2009, when the Giants lost to the Broncos, 26-6.

    Favorites of over 10 pts are 8-0 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2005 and 11-0 ATS in the past 30 years
    Crowd Movement


    Public Feast

    Betting Thanksgiving in the past has been as easy as following the crowds.
    • Favorites with 60%+ of tickets are 22-8 ATS
    • Public sides (51%+ of tickets) are 32-18 ATS
    • Public sides, who are favorites, are 28-13 ATS
    • Public sides are .500 ATS or better every year since 2014 and 10 of the past 11 years
    • Since 2005, eight teams have closed with 74% or more of the spread tickets on Thanksgiving and those sides went 8-0 SU and ATS.

    Biggest Public Sides on Thanksgiving Since 2005
    80%: 2019 Saints, -7 at ATL (W, 26-18)
    79%: 2005 Falcons, -3 at DET (W, 27-7)
    77%: 2012 Patriots, -7 at NYJ (W, 49-19)
    77%: 2008 Cowboys, -11.5 vs. SEA (W, 34-9)
    75%: 2010 Patriots, -6 at DET (W, 45-24)
    75%: 2008 Titans, -11 at DET (W, 47-10)
    74%: 2016 Steelers, -8.5 at IND (W, 28-7)
    74%: 2007 Colts, -13.5 at ATL (W, 31-13)


    Tags: None
  • #2
    from my files, more to come:

    19-0 SU / 18-1 ATS = oppose Tgiving turf home dog <=7 not on huge losing streak and did not beat the spread by 9 or more last week (play on SF) = only ATS loss was 34-31 win at -3.5 spread

    43-4 SU / 40-5-2 ATS = oppose THU or MON of Tgiving week with 2+ less wins than opponent, 39.5+ total and not on 2+ win streak (play on DET, DAL, MIN)

    Comment

    • #3
      Thanks, rt...

      Comment

      • #4
        great info
        _______________________________________________
        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

        Comment

        • #5
          it's interesting on biggest public sides that atl @ home twice were the only 2 close margins .. the other 6 covered by avg of about 18 and the minimum was 12.5..they also happen to be the 1st and last games in the sample which has no capping significance lol
          Last edited by bleeker; 11-22-2023, 07:27 AM.
          _______________________________________________
          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

          Comment

          • #6
            Great stuff, rolltide. Thanks for posting!

            Comment

            • #7
              I see another thread started so will just post the remaining THU games here and then the Fri-Mon in the other one

              this pertains specifically to the THU games played at night when away team will have extra rest next and home team not on a huge losing streak = UNDER

              12-11-0 (-2.52, 52.2%)
              11-12-0 (-2.93, 47.8%) avg line: -0.4 +6: 14-9-0 (60.9%) -6: 5-17-1 (22.7%) +10: 14-8-1 (63.6%) -10: 1-20-2 (4.8%)
              2-21-0 (-11.13, 8.7%) avg total: 46.3 +6: 1-22-0 (4.3%) -6: 4-19-0 (17.4%) +10: 1-22-0 (4.3%) -10: 9-14-0 (39.1%)
              26.5 104.4 31.7 186.9 19.6 1.5 2.9 4.9 3.5 5.1 16.3
              27.0 101.0 32.6 212.2 21.1 1.3 2.6 7.0 4.5 4.7 18.9
              Nov 23, 2023 view Thursday 12 2023 Seahawks Fortyniners home 7.0 43.0

              Comment

              • #8
                very similar to the one i posted above. 22 straight away wins the only non covers by 0.5 and 1 point so 22-0 SU and in teasers

                0-22-0 (-16.64, 0.0%)
                2-20-0 (-11.07, 9.1%) avg line: 5.6 +6: 7-14-1 (33.3%) -6: 0-22-0 (0.0%) +10: 10-12-0 (45.5%) -10: 0-22-0 (0.0%)
                12-10-0 (1.36, 54.5%) avg total: 47.0 +6: 8-14-0 (36.4%) -6: 16-6-0 (72.7%) +10: 6-16-0 (27.3%) -10: 18-4-0 (81.8%)
                23.4 93.5 39.6 227.3 24.0 2.7 3.5 4.5 2.5 5.4 15.9
                28.3 124.6 30.9 264.5 21.5 0.9 6.6 10.6 7.9 7.1 32.5
                Nov 23, 2023 view Thursday 12 2023 Seahawks Fortyniners home 7.0 43.0

                Comment

                • #9
                  Originally posted by bleeker View Post
                  it's interesting on biggest public sides that atl @ home twice were the only 2 close margins .. the other 6 covered by avg of about 18 and the minimum was 12.5..they also happen to be the 1st and last games in the sample which has no capping significance lol
                  will post again tomorrow but right now DET is 76%, SF is 84% which would both be among the 5 biggest public sides in history

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    A Turkey Day add

                    Rivera teams are 20-1 ou as 7+ dog with total<54

                    wash/dallas over

                    5-15-1 (-8.48, 25.0%)
                    10-10-1 (-0.19, 50.0%) avg line: 8.3 +6: 12-9-0 (57.1%) -6: 7-13-1 (35.0%) +10: 15-6-0 (71.4%) -10: 5-16-0 (23.8%)
                    20-1-0 (11.83, 95.2%) avg total: 45.8

                    https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Originally posted by rolltide View Post
                      A Turkey Day add

                      Rivera teams are 20-1 ou as 7+ dog with total<54

                      wash/dallas over
                      5-15-1 (-8.48, 25.0%)
                      10-10-1 (-0.19, 50.0%) avg line: 8.3 +6: 12-9-0 (57.1%) -6: 7-13-1 (35.0%) +10: 15-6-0 (71.4%) -10: 5-16-0 (23.8%)
                      20-1-0 (11.83, 95.2%) avg total: 45.8
                      https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
                      a little stronger after week 2, great margin, no under

                      7-16-1 (-6.46, 30.4%)
                      13-10-1 (0.25, 56.5%) avg line: 6.7 +6: 15-9-0 (62.5%) -6: 8-15-1 (34.8%) +10: 17-7-0 (70.8%) -10: 6-18-0 (25.0%)
                      24-0-0 (13.52, 100.0%) avg total: 45.5 +6: 17-7-0 (70.8%) -6: 24-0-0 (100.0%) +10: 11-11-2 (50.0%) -10: 24-0-0 (100.0%)
                      29.7 128.8 34.9 239.7 21.2 1.7 5.0 8.4 4.9 7.9 26.3
                      25.6 129.9 34.8 264.1 23.7 1.1 7.5 9.2 6.0 9.8 32.8
                      Nov 23, 2023 view Thursday 12 2023 Commanders Cowboys away 13.5 48.5
                      Last edited by rolltide; 11-22-2023, 07:06 PM.

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        last one for tomorrow

                        NFC East big division fav system since 2010, should be active again on Christmas
                        11-3-0 (12.14, 78.6%)
                        6-7-1 (2.50, 46.2%) avg line: -9.6 +6: 11-3-0 (78.6%) -6: 5-9-0 (35.7%) +10: 11-3-0 (78.6%) -10: 5-9-0 (35.7%)
                        14-0-0 (14.14, 100.0%) avg total: 44.0 +6: 10-4-0 (71.4%) -6: 14-0-0 (100.0%) +10: 9-4-1 (69.2%) -10: 14-0-0 (100.0%)
                        31.1 149.1 34.4 288.6 24.3 1.4 7.6 10.2 8.4 8.8 35.1
                        25.1 99.9 33.9 195.4 20.1 1.4 4.4 6.2 3.8 8.6 23.0
                        Dec 25, 2023 view Monday 16 2023 Eagles Giants home -7.5 47.0
                        Nov 23, 2023 view Thursday 12 2023 Cowboys Commanders home -13.5 48.5


                        also NFC Division home fav <17 points that wasnt more than 17 point fav last game and didn't allow 22+ vs expected, also active with Philly on Christmas

                        division=NFC East and DIV and HF and date>20201101 and line>-17 and p:line>-17 and op:dpa<22

                        12-5-0 (6.41, 70.6%)
                        8-8-1 (0.24, 50.0%) avg line: -6.2 +6: 13-4-0 (76.5%) -6: 5-12-0 (29.4%) +10: 14-3-0 (82.4%) -10: 5-12-0 (29.4%)
                        16-1-0 (9.00, 94.1%) avg total: 44.0 +6: 9-8-0 (52.9%) -6: 16-0-1 (100.0%) +10: 8-8-1 (50.0%) -10: 17-0-0 (100.0%)
                        29.4 126.5 33.0 249.8 22.8 1.6 4.8 8.6 7.6 8.5 29.7
                        26.7 113.6 35.5 217.9 21.8 1.2 5.0 6.8 3.1 8.4 23.3
                        Nov 23, 2023 view Thursday 12 2023 Cowboys Commanders home -13.5 48.5
                        Last edited by rolltide; 11-22-2023, 08:53 PM.

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          This goes along with rolltide's Wash/Dal Over 48'. Home favs of more than -7 w/a total less than 54 off back-to-back s/u wins by more than 13pts each:

                          KillerSports.com

                          3-0...o/u

                          Over 48' Wash/Dal

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            Well now...this is disturbing, but a definite eye-opener. Dallas as a home fav vs opp off a s/u loss as a fav of more than -7:

                            team=Cowboys
                            HF
                            op:L
                            op:line<-7

                            KillerSports.com

                            0-4 s/u
                            &
                            0-4 ats

                            Dallas lost s/u as favs of -11, -13, -7 & -9...play against Dallas-13 & s/u

                            Key stat: Dallas avg'd 3.2 t/o per game vs opp 0.8 t/o per game

                            Play on: Wash+13

                            Play on: Wash +550 on the m/l

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              And yet another eye-opener. SF as a road fav of -10 or less, off back-to-back s/u wins in which they scored at least 7pts in both 1st-Qtrs yet allowed 0pts in each:

                              team=Fortyniners
                              AF
                              line>-10.5
                              p:W
                              pp:W
                              p:P1>6
                              pp:P1>6
                              po:P1=0
                              ppo:p1=0

                              KillerSports.com

                              0-3 s/u
                              &
                              0-3 ats

                              SF lost s/u as favs of -7, -10 & -9' & it already happened once this year...play against SF-7

                              Play on: Seat+7

                              Play on: Seat +280 on the m/l

                              Comment

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