Week 2 bouncebacks SDQL

[rolltide]

Since 2010 season teams that lost in week 1 after winning 13 or more games the previous season are 12-1 SUATS winning by avg of 17ppg

Vikings, Bills, Chiefs

note: Vikings are first teams to be dog larger than +2 points in this situation so are very much an outlier

PRSW > 12 and game number = 2 and p:L and season > 2009 and ...

1	1-0-0 (6.00, 100.0%)	-13.0	1-0-0 (28.00, 100.0%)	45.0	1-0-0 (19.00, 100.0%)	line = -13.0
1	1-0-0 (6.50, 100.0%)	-11.5	1-0-0 (2.50, 100.0%)	49.5	1-0-0 (18.00, 100.0%)	line = -11.5
1	1-0-0 (7.00, 100.0%)	-10.0	0-1-0 (-5.00, 0.0%)	42.0	1-0-0 (17.00, 100.0%)	line = -10.0
3	3-0-0 (18.33, 100.0%)	-7.0	2-1-0 (1.67, 66.7%)	45.7	3-0-0 (25.33, 100.0%)	line = -7.0
1	1-0-0 (9.50, 100.0%)	-6.5	0-0-1 (0.00, 0.0%)	56.0	1-0-0 (16.00, 100.0%)	line = -6.5
2	2-0-0 (4.50, 100.0%)	-5.5	1-1-0 (-5.00, 50.0%)	49.0	2-0-0 (10.00, 100.0%)	line = -5.5
1	1-0-0 (19.00, 100.0%)	-5.0	1-0-0 (3.50, 100.0%)	48.5	1-0-0 (24.00, 100.0%)	line = -5.0
1	1-0-0 (31.50, 100.0%)	-3.5	0-1-0 (-13.00, 0.0%)	48.0	1-0-0 (35.00, 100.0%)	line = -3.5
1	0-1-0 (-10.50, 0.0%)	-2.5	1-0-0 (9.50, 100.0%)	52.5	0-1-0 (-8.00, 0.0%)	line = -2.5
1	1-0-0 (6.00, 100.0%)	2.0	1-0-0 (16.50, 100.0%)	49.5	1-0-0 (4.00, 100.0%)	line = 2.0
0	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	line = 7.0

[Thomas]

Nice one tide, I'm gonna leave the query to see all the games and teams on one page because some won't know how to do that

PRSW > 12 and game number = 2 and p:L and season > 2009

https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

Of interest is non divisional games in your query which are 8-0 su, ats, 6-1-1 o/u and have the three qualifying games from you original post

PRSW > 12 and game number = 2 and p:L and season > 2009 and NDIV

https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

I really like all 3 of your results and I also like the over in all of them as well. Those queries both won't work at GTD for some reason

[rolltide]

Game 2, lost home by 10+ and not dog of 13 or more. Did not win 12 or more games last year
A and line < 13 and p:margin < -9 and p:H and game number = 2 and PRSW < 12 and season > 2013

= on SEA, NYG, IND, CHI

13-7-0 (4.90, 65.0%)
20-0-0 (9.00, 100.0%)

unbeaten subset of KillerSports.com

[BT]

Great stuff, tide. I'm down on a few of these already so good to see these. I'll have to take a deeper look at Minny. Don't trust that team!

[rolltide]

Great stuff, tide. I'm down on a few of these already so good to see these. I'll have to take a deeper look at Minny. Don't trust that team!

if i remember correctly Cousins has some horrific record in prime time games

[rolltide]

if i remember correctly Cousins has some horrific record in prime time games

looks like his Thursday record is good but the other late games is poor. so doesn't matter for tomorrow

Thu night he is 3-1SU with 2-1-1ATS ... other nights he is 5-11ATS, 4-12SU

4	2-1-1 (0.88, 66.7%)	-3.6	3-1-0 (10.75, 75.0%)	44.2	3-1-0 (4.50, 75.0%)	day = Thursday
8	3-5-0 (-2.62, 37.5%)	0.6	3-5-0 (-3.62, 37.5%)	47.9	2-6-0 (-3.25, 25.0%)	day = Sunday
6	2-4-0 (-7.00, 33.3%)	-0.8	1-5-0 (-10.75, 16.7%)	46.9	2-4-0 (-6.17, 33.3%)	day = Monday
1	0-1-0 (-10.00, 0.0%)	7.0	0-1-0 (-7.50, 0.0%)	44.5	0-1-0 (-17.00, 0.0%)	day = Saturday
1	0-1-0 (-12.00, 0.0%)	7.0	1-0-0 (32.50, 100.0%)	52.5	0-1-0 (-19.00, 0.0%)	day = Friday

[Chamblin]

Thanks!! You always have useful info !!!

[Thomas]

tide I found this query that works at GTD check it out

QB:list:name[0]='Kirk Cousins' and day=Thursday

https://gimmethedog.com/NFL?q=QB%3Al...day%3DThursday

QB:list:name[0]='Kirk Cousins' and SNF

https://gimmethedog.com/NFL?q=QB%3Al...27%20and%20SNF

QB:list:name[0]='Kirk Cousins' and MNF

https://gimmethedog.com/NFL?q=QB%3Al...27%20and%20MNF

---------------------

You can just add team=Vikings to limit results to his time there

QB:list:name[0]='Kirk Cousins' and day=Thursday and team=Vikings

https://gimmethedog.com/NFL?q=QB%3Al...m%3DVikings%20
-------------------

None of the queries will show future games because we don't if know Cousins will be playing but if you'd like to see them just use the date of >2017, which covers the years he played there

team=Vikings and day=Thursday and season>2017

[Bigtiger]

looks like his Thursday record is good but the other late games is poor. so doesn't matter for tomorrow

Thu night he is 3-1SU with 2-1-1ATS ... other nights he is 5-11ATS, 4-12SU

4	2-1-1 (0.88, 66.7%)	-3.6	3-1-0 (10.75, 75.0%)	44.2	3-1-0 (4.50, 75.0%)	day = Thursday
8	3-5-0 (-2.62, 37.5%)	0.6	3-5-0 (-3.62, 37.5%)	47.9	2-6-0 (-3.25, 25.0%)	day = Sunday
6	2-4-0 (-7.00, 33.3%)	-0.8	1-5-0 (-10.75, 16.7%)	46.9	2-4-0 (-6.17, 33.3%)	day = Monday
1	0-1-0 (-10.00, 0.0%)	7.0	0-1-0 (-7.50, 0.0%)	44.5	0-1-0 (-17.00, 0.0%)	day = Saturday
1	0-1-0 (-12.00, 0.0%)	7.0	1-0-0 (32.50, 100.0%)	52.5	0-1-0 (-19.00, 0.0%)	day = Friday

2-8-1 ATS as a Dog

[Michelangelo]

Love this work, rt.

[turbo]

and thank you

[Chamblin]

[rolltide]

Away Favs of 2.5+ off a game they trailed by 10+ after 1st quarter and did not have a big turnover margin differential are 18-0 SU with 17 covers. The only non-cover was a 3 point win as a 3.5 point fav

18-0-0 (17.78, 100.0%) 17-1-0 (12.22, 94.4%) avg line: -5.6 +6: 18-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 13-5-0 (72.2%) +10: 18-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 11-7-0 (61.1%) 7-11-0 (0.14, 38.9%) avg total: 46.9 +6: 6-12-0 (33.3%) -6: 11-7-0 (61.1%) +10: 6-12-0 (33.3%) -10: 14-4-0 (77.8%) 30.3 120.5 35.5 287.8 24.9 0.8 6.2 10.8 7.6 7.7 32.4 21.9 85.4 36.6 208.5 21.1 1.6 4.1 3.4 4.0 3.1 14.6 Sep 17, 2023 view Sunday 2 2023 Giants Cardinals away -4.0 39.5

[rolltide]

Joey Burrow playing a team off a win and cover = 13-0SUATS

Joe Burrow:passes>0 and op:W and op:ats margin>0 and date>20211010

13-0-0 (9.08, 100.0%) 13-0-0 (8.23, 100.0%)

Game 2 divisional game off a Game 1 divisional loss, team won 4+ last year, opponent NOT off a blowout win

game number=2 and DIV and p:DIV and p:L and season>2000 and PRSW>3 and op:margin<18

24-1-1 ATS = CIN, IND, CAR

(only failed cover was a -5.5 fav that won 35-30 and led by 12 with under a minute remaining)

24-2-0 (8.92, 92.3%) 24-1-1 (9.19, 96.0%) avg line: 0.3 +6: 26-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 16-7-3 (69.6%) +10: 26-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 10-14-2 (41.7%) 10-14-2 (0.73, 41.7%) avg total: 41.5 +6: 8-18-0 (30.8%) -6: 16-10-0 (61.5%) +10: 6-20-0 (23.1%) -10: 18-8-0 (69.2%) 30.7 146.1 27.1 195.9 16.8 1.0 5.5 8.0 5.8 6.2 25.6 25.0 111.2 38.1 239.8 23.1 2.3 3.3 4.3 3.4 5.6 16.7 Sep 18, 2023 view Monday 2 2023 Panthers Saints home 3.0 39.5 Sep 17, 2023 view Sunday 2 2023 Colts Texans away 1.0 39.5 Sep 17, 2023 view Sunday 2 2023 Bengals Ravens home -3.5 46.5

[bleeker]

if you add a previous turnover maximum (1) comes up with some really nice numbers

https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++


only kc qualifies for this