No clue...CC

[Riderx]

Well...guess I'll get started. I title these threads 'no clue' for a good reason: I really don't have a clue what's going to happen & I'm not a pro. Before the season started, I had Buff vs TB in the SB, pretty d*mn square, huh? Right now I have Cincy vs Philly, with Cincy finally winning the big one. But it ain't gonna' be easy for the Bengals or the Eagles this weekend & a very real possibility that both games go to OT. And there are quite a few situations that haven't happened in the playoffs that apply to these games, so we're in unchartered territory. It could easily be the Chiefs vs the 49'ers in the SB, we'll see.

The 1st thing I'm gonna' post is something some of the 'ol Talksport folks might remember, as I posted it years ago there & it's held true. I don't know why; it's just a weird, quirky little trend.

Any team off a playoff game at home vs the Cowboys:

KillerSports.com

5-0 ats & 4-1 o/u

*****All 5 games went to OT*****

*****The lowest combined points scored was 49*****

SF +2' is the lowest line of the 6 games, so if we go 6 for 6 in OT...the line won't matter either way.

49'ers/Eagles goes to OT.

Lean: Over 47

(Still workin' on who's gonna' win s/u but I flipped a coin & it came up Eagle.)

[Riderx]

Line & total stipulation

Any non-div team in at least their 3rd straight playoff game, lined between -4.5 to +4 w/a total between 41 to 53, off a game in which their opponent had the lead at any point:

KillerSports.com

2-6 s/u
&
2-6 ats
&
8-0 o/u

eliminating the games that are doubled-up, in which both teams qualified:

0-4 s/u
&
0-4 ats
&
4-0 o/u

'02...Oak vs TB...lost 21-48...69pts...Over by 25
'06...NE vs Indy...lost 34-38...72pts...Over by 23.5
'12...SF vs Balt...lost 31-34...65pts...Over by 16.5
'17...NE vs Phil...lost 33-41...74pts...Over by 25
'22...SF vs Phil

Average total points scored: 70ppg

Boys & girls, this game's going Over

Play #1: Over 46'...49'ers/Eagles

[bleeker]

nice find john !! I like that eliminating the dual qualifiers leaves you with the 4 biggest overs

[Riderx]

Thanks, Glenn. We'll see if it holds true...

[bleeker]

no problem

[jumperjack]

Only thing I don't like is 4 of those games were Super Bowls, and after eliminating double results you are left with only 2 non-Super Bowl results.

[Riderx]

Line stipulation only

Any team in at least their 3rd playoff game, not a dog of +4 or more, team is off a road game in which they never trailed:

KillerSports.com

8-0 s/u
&
3-5 o/u

eliminating the 4 SB games (Bucs are listed at 'home' vs Chiefs), all 4 teams went on to win the SB:

'05 Steelers
'06 Colts
'11 Giants
'21 Rams

Play #2: Bengals +/-

Play #3: Future +240 on the Bengals to win their 1st SB in Glendale, Arizona (wouldn't be surprised if their a fav)

[Riderx]

Only thing I don't like is 4 of those games were Super Bowls, and after eliminating double results you are left with only 2 non-Super Bowl results.

I appreciate the input, jumperjack. Yeah, I know, I thought about eliminating the SB's but decided against it. I just think both teams are going to score a lot of points with possibly a defensive TD by both teams.

[Chamblin]

[Riderx]

Thursday night

Philly line is holding at -2'. Hasn't budged all week. Looks like Vegas doesn't want a 'push' on that side. I'm not a bookmaker but I don't think Vegas moves that to -3. If I knew that Overtime trend years ago, Vegas knew it before I did. 5 out of 5 games went to OT; make it 6 out of 6. Total still holding at 46'. I got the Over.

KC lined moved back to KC being a fav, sitting now at -1. Total has jumped to 48. People re-acting to Mahomes walking around like 'normal' & bulletin-board material on Arrowhead being called Burrowhead. Gawd, ya' gotta' luv this sh*t...LOL...a true game in which hate is involved. Both D'fenses show up for the night-cap:

Any team off a playoff game at home in which they lost ats, now vs opponent of a s/u win as a road dog:

KillerSports.com

0-4 o/u

Play #4: Under 48 Bengals/Chiefs

[Riderx]

Maybe this is even a better indicator

The above system, did not cover by 5 or more ats last game vs an opponent off a home game (Jax) & not favored by -6 ore more now:

KillerSports.com

0-2 s/u
&
0-2 ats
&
0-2 o/u

Play against KC+/- s/u & ats

Play on Cincy+/- s/u & ats

Play on Under 48

*****The only other above game in playoff history since '01 in which the team lost ats last game was: KillerSports.com

'03 Eagles -4' & 37...lost s/u 3-14

the boxscore says it all

[Riderx]

Solid on the Over:

KillerSports.com

6-0 o/u

[Riderx]

Friday night...didn't think about or work on the games all day until now...wanted to clear the 'ol noggin', which is impossible & proves that I am truly insane by the very definition...LOL...& similar to Don Quixote tryin' to slay the windmills...............gotta' luv the two dudes gettin' sh*tfaced...

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I still won't be surprised if both these games go to OT...in fact, I'm almost expecting it & all 4 teams are worthy of winning s/u. Strictly as a fan of the game I do hope both games go down to the wire, the last play of the game but I really have no clue what's going to happen.

I've always been a huge fan of Defense, it's what wins championships. And SF has the #1 scoring D' & that line gives me zero confidence in Philly this Sunday. Purdy is 7-0 s/u now & reminds me of QB's that rode the top-D' all the way to SB wins. See: TB in '02 with Brad Johnson at QB, who went into Philly as +3' dogs in the CC game & won s/u 27-10, on their way to a blowout win in the SB over the Raiders.

But the Eagles have a badass D' themselves, having recorded 75 sacks.

The most since the '85 Bears!

And no other team still in the playoffs had more than 70 sacks in the modern era, since the '02 re-align: KillerSports.com

So-o-o...we are headed for the clash of the titans & that's why I really like the Over, with the s/u winner making the last play in OT. Both OC's know their QB's have to get the ball out quickly...very quickly...as both D's are fast as sh*t & will be on the hunt all game long.

For the fans of the 49'ers: Any team off back-to-back playoff games as home favs & their previous opponent had 13+ wins & was off a road game:

KillerSports.com

3-0 s/u
&
3-0 ats
&
3-0 o/u

Now...in all fairness...those 3 games were all SB games...this game isn't...but it gives you a sense of the luxury of the aftermath of being a home the last 2 games & beating a team with more than 12 wins off a road game.

So-o-o...lean: SF+2' s/u

Of note I: the Seahawks had the #1-scoring D' & demolished the Broncos 43-8. The Seahawks were the only other dog, besides the 49'ers.

Of note II: those 3 teams avg'd 46.3 passes per game, 322.7 passing yards per game & 32.7 completions per game!!

Of note III: they dominated the 4th quarter...outscoring the opponents by a combined 50-0!!!

Of note IV: it took all 3 of those 4th quarters for the Overs to hit...going Over by 4, 4 & 4.5

[Chamblin]

[Riderx]

Okay...in the immortal words of WhiteSnake: "Here I Go Again!" ('cuz I'm an idiot)

I had 2 more questions I had to answer & I did; slept on 'em & ready to go. First question answered has to do with opponents that avg'd at least 2+ passing TD's over the entire season. Not gonna' go into detail, but in a nutshell the home teams are 0-3 s/u, 0-3 ats & 0-3 o/u, which cements my plays on Cincy s/u & under 48.

Now to the doozy. And I'm going against myself in post #1. And not for the faint of heart.

My initial thoughts right after SF beat Dallas last Sunday was the SF/Philly line would come out at "pick 'em" or maybe even SF-1, but it didn't. WTF? SF has the #1 scoring D' & we all know the dominate history of the #1 scoring D's in the playoffs, especially in the CC & SB games. So I waited. And watched. And listened.

And I've seen & heard almost everyone on the boob-tube & the raididio predict a 1pt or 2pt win either way on this game. Maybe they're all right, but I'm going against it and here's why.

The second question I had to answer has nothing to do with what happened last week & everything to do with how they started the season. Here it is.

"How do teams do in the CC game at home, off a previous bye, team started the season on at least a 6-game win streak?"

with tighteners, the answer is: 5-0 s/u, 4-1 ats & 5-0 o/u

if they started the season on at least a 7-game win streak, lined between +3 to -14' w/a total of 38 to 53:

KillerSports.com

4-0 s/u
&
4-0 ats
&
4-0 o/u

***see the boxscores, these games were not close, at all & major teaser busters, even in 10pt teasers.

They dominate the ground game...averaging 183.5 rush yards per game vs 66.0 & averaging 3.8 takeaways per game vs 0.5 turnovers!!!

But it gets even worse. If they're not big favs:

KillerSports.com

2-0 s/u...by 29.5ppg
&
2-0 ats...by 26.5ppg
&
2-0 o/u...by 13.0ppg

*****Average takeaways of 5.5 per game vs 0.5 turnovers*****

So-o-o...I'm stayin' away from SF like the plague.

Average final score: 44.0 - 14.5

Play on: Philly -2' & Over 45'

Gonna' look at alternate lines & totals. Go for it.

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**********Major note: All 5 teams lost the SB (which includes StL in '01)

Bengals +240 to win SB