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  • SDQLrs

    Teams who won by 30+ at home in the Div round now home in the CC.

    Maybe you guys can get creative with other queries of a similar nature.

    Thanks

  • #2
    didn't find anything worthwhile with big margins



    H and p:playoffs=1 and p:rest >9 and po:points <=13 and total <50

    home
    previous playoff game
    previous off rest > 9 days (1st bye)
    previous opp points <=13
    total < 50

    8-0 o/u (7.38)

    seems to strengthen with higher totals and recency

    phi over (not a play for me yet)



    https://killersports.com/nfl/query?o...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

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    • #3

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      • #4
        Glenn,

        This corelates with your overs. Playoff teams with at least 14 s/u wins, off at least 3 straight home games & opponent not off a bye:

        KillerSports.com

        2-0 Over

        Mich,

        Those 2 road teams were lined at +3 & +3. SF is +2' right now, but it's early. Those road teams are also 0-2 s/u & 0-2 ats.

        As with any game, those 2 road teams avg'd 4.0 t/o's per game vs 1.0 t/o's per game for the home team.

        We've still got a long way to go before Sunday.

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        • #5
          To add to that, any road team with 14+ wins vs opp with 14+ wins, teams did not play each other during the season:

          KillerSports.com

          0-2 s/u...by -34 & -31
          &
          0-2 ats...by -31 & -34
          &
          2-0 o/u

          There is a crossover game between the 2 above systems: Cardinals at Panthers in 2015.

          & in 2017, the Eagles were actually a dog of +3 vs Minny. I think we all remember that one.

          Turnovers got worse for the road teams: 5.0 vs 0.5

          But that's 3 games between the 2 systems. Home teams are 3-0 s/u, 3-0 ats & 3-0 o/u

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          • #6

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            • #7
              My total on Phi has already gone up 1 point.

              Aaaaand Cincy has moved from -1 to -2.5 wow...

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Michelangelo View Post
                Teams who won by 30+ at home in the Div round now home in the CC.

                Maybe you guys can get creative with other queries of a similar nature.

                Thanks
                Okay Jim, maybe this is a better representation of the SF/Phil game. Any home fav of less than -4, off an ats win by more than 10 as a home fav in a playoff game:

                KillerSports.com

                1-2 s/u
                &
                0-3 ats
                &
                3-0 o/u

                ***2 of the 3 went to OT. Lines were -3', -3' & -3. Philly is -2' & hasn't moved a bit, even though more than 90% of the $$$ are one 'em.

                ...if they won ats by more than 9:

                KillerSports.com

                2-2 s/u
                &
                1-3 ats
                &
                4-0 o/u

                *****3 of the 4 went to OT & curently 3 in a row went to OT. The only ats win was last year in a non-CC game...Chiefs/Bills.

                We're probably looking at 49'ers/Eagles going to OT, which will keep everyone on the edge of their seats.

                Glenn, all 4 went Over...

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                • #9

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                  • #10
                    hey john


                    niner one is amazing more for the fade (on pha)than the total but never hurts to have a backup with the over..still not committing (pha over) as I had much better numbers in the preceding games and we know what happened there






                    the other a little lean on the margins without the overtimes..3 of the 4 totals are much higher numbers and they are the most recent so not as crazy about that one. but as a backup for the other (pha over) it's fine
                    Last edited by bleeker; 01-25-2023, 10:08 AM.
                    _______________________________________________
                    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Very rare to see the 1 seeds in Championship games as a dog or favorite of less than 3 let alone both games

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Glenn...I have another one that is 3-0 o/u with combined points of 64, 68 & 62...

                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                        gc...good to see ya' post...I wouldn't be surprised to see both games go to overtime...there's gonna' be at least one, gonna' drive bettors crazy...#1 vs #2 with the #1 scoring D' is most likely & Cincy's 3 straight wins over by KC have all been by 3pts each...gonna' be wild...

                        ...it's also rarer that a #1-seed is facing a road team with at least 10 straight wins: KillerSports.com

                        ...in fact, it hasn't happened...now we have both.
                        Last edited by Riderx; 01-25-2023, 05:02 PM.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by dollars View Post

                          Aaaaand Cincy has moved from -1 to -2.5 wow...
                          My line on Cin is a pk now. What's going on???

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                          • #14
                            dollars,

                            If I read it right, the first line move was reaction to Cincy's Cappa & Williams playing on Sunday & the second line move is reaction to Mahomes?

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                            • #15
                              I don't see what the big deal is... everyone knows he's gonna play...

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