The CHFF Game Analyses provide an overall summary of how the CHFF Quality Stats stack up in each game and the statistical match up. They are to be used as a guide only and do not factor in the point spread.
The charts read left to right like this:
1a.jpg
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
Seahawks: 9-8, 7-10 ATS
49ers: 13-4, 11-6 ATS
The last team to get into the playoffs is the first team to go on the road for the opening weekend of the postseason. Thanks to the Lions win over the Packers on Sunday night, Seattle took the seventh and final spot in the NFC. Their prize is a third game this season against the 49ers.
This isn’t the best matchup for the Seahawks. In their two games against the 49ers this season, they lost 27-7 and 21-13. They were two of Geno Smith’s worst games of the year. In the most recent meeting, which took place in Seattle, the Seahawks didn’t score a touchdown until the game was out of reach in the fourth quarter.
Seattle did win the last two games of the season when fighting for their playoff lives. But since Week 10 they are just 3-5.
Waiting for the Seahawks is the team playing the best football in the NFC, and possibly the NFL. They have won a league-high 10 games in a row and have scored more than 30 points in five of their last six games. With a defense that allows a league-best 16 points per game, the offensive production has the 49ers winning easily.
Over their 10-game winning streak, the average margin of victory for the 49ers is 16.1 points, and it’s hard to envision a scenario where the Seahawks can compete and keep up on the scoreboard.
San Francisco has gotten healthy, with Deebo Samuel now back on the field. George Kittle has become a touchdown machine, scoring seven times in the last four games. And Brock Purdy continues to amaze. The seventh-round rookie quarterback has 13 touchdowns to just three interceptions since taking over the offense in December.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Chargers: 10-7, 11-5-1 ATS
Jaguars: 9-8, 8-9 ATS
The future of great quarterback play is the focus of the late AFC Wild Card game on Saturday night. Justin Herbert, the former Rookie of the Year, and Trevor Lawrence, the former No. 1 overall pick, are both making their first postseason starts.
Herbert was a breakout star as a rookie in 2020, and in 2021 he threw for over 5,000 yards. Lawrence was a disappointment as a rookie in 2021. But with the change at the head coach to Doug Pederson, he has emerged as a star in the making. Since the Jaguars turned it around in Week 9, Lawrence has 15 touchdowns to just two interceptions.
The turnaround for Lawrence paced one of the great team turnarounds in NFL history. The Jaguars were the worst team in the league in 2020 and 2021, getting the top draft pick in both years. Now they are the AFC South champions and hosting a playoff game for the first time since 2017.
The Jaguars are already in playoff mode, having to win in the final week of the regular season to get into the playoffs. The Chargers coasted in their final game, having already been locked into the No. 5 seed. Yet they still had all of their starters on the field late in their loss to the Broncos, and a number of key players got dinged up.
Joey Bosa had just been activated from the IR in Week 17, and he re-aggravated his groin injury in Denver. Wide receiver Mike Williams also left the game with back spasms. On a day when the most important players on the team should have been put in bubble wrap, they picked up unnecessary injuries that may affect their play on a short week of rest.
The Chargers are in the playoffs, which is a great thing for them and Herbert. But they go into the playoffs with far more questions than Jacksonville.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-9)
Dolphins: 9-8, 11-5-1 ATS
Bills: 13-3, 8-9 ATS
It wasn’t the prettiest of the Dolphins games this season. In fact, it was probably the ugliest. But the 11-6 win for Miami on Sunday was enough to put them into the playoffs and prevent one of the worst collapses in team history. Prior to beating the Jets, Miami had lost five straight games.
Four of those five losses were with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback, including their three-point loss to the Bills in Week 15. In that game, the Dolphin's best weapon was the running game, which bodes well for this week. Tua isn’t expected to play, and Teddy Bridgewater is the most likely starter on Sunday.
As a team in Week 15, the Dolphins ran for 188 yards, with 136 of them coming from Raheem Mostert. Expect to see a steady diet of Mostert, Jeff Wilson - who had 72 yards last week against the Jets, and Tyreek Hill - who hasn’t been used in the running game much this season, but he does have seven career rushing touchdowns.
We know what to expect from the Bills offense. Josh Allen. And then more Josh Allen.
In that Week 15 win for Buffalo, Allen had 381 total yards of offense and four touchdown passes. In the decisive 86-yard drive for the game-winning field goal, Allen converted three third downs and ran out the final six minutes of the game.
It was an enduring image of Allen. In the snow in Buffalo, doing everything he could with his arm and his legs to lead the Bills to their most important win of the regular season. Now he hopes to replicate that success, and that image, in this Sunday’s playoff game - the seventh postseason start of his career.
New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-3)
Giants: 10-7, 13-4 ATS
Vikings: 13-4, 7-9-1 ATS
Each of the playoff games this weekend is a rematch of a game in the regular season. None finished quite like the first game between the Giants and Vikings. On Christmas Eve the Vikings scored 17 points in the fourth quarter, including a 61-yard field by Greg Joseph to win the game as time expired.
Saquon Barkley had 133 total yards of offense. Daniel Jones threw for 344 yards and ran for another 34. Kirk Cousins had 299 yards passing and three touchdowns. Both Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson went over 100 yards, and they combined for 25 catches and three touchdowns.
It was one of the most entertaining games of the entire season, and Giants vs. Vikings Part II promises to be one of the best games of the weekend.
We have two first-year head coaches in Kevin O’Connell and Brian Daboll, and both should receive votes for Coach of the Year. Especially Daboll, who took over a team that was 4-13 last year.
We have two of the most dynamic running backs in the NFL in 2022. Dalvin Cook finished the year with 1,468 total yards, and Barkley finished with 1,650 total yards. They each finished the 2022 season with 10 touchdowns.
Where the advantages lie are on defense for the Giants, and at wide receiver for the Vikings. Minnesota boasts Jefferson, Adam Thielen, K.J. Osborn, and Hockenson. New York has Darius Slayton and duct tape.
The Giants do have the much better defense. They rank eighth in Bendability, as compared to 15th for the Vikings. And while New York’s 23rd ranking in Total Team Yards Allowed isn’t great, when compared to Minnesota’s 32nd ranking, it’s a big advantage.
Where the Giants really shine is in getting off the field. They rank fifth in the NFL in third down defense.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)
Ravens: 10-7, 7-9-1 ATS
Bengals: 12-4, 12-4 ATS
We do not expect to see Lamar Jackson on the field on Sunday night. As hopeful as things sounded a month ago, they have turned very doubtful. A doubt that the Ravens showed last week when they sat backup Tyler Huntley to protect his health for this game.
Have we seen the last of Lamar Jackson this season? Have we seen the last of him in a Ravens uniform? He is a free agent this offseason. He could be tagged, he could be signed, or he could go to another team. But whatever is in his future, it’s hard to see how the Ravens can do much this postseason without him.
Jackson did play in the first meeting between these two teams, won by Baltimore, 19-17. Jackson threw for 174 yards and ran for 58. The real star of the game offensively for the Ravens that day was all-everything kicker Justin Tucker, who was four-for-four on field goals, including one from 58 yards.
The Ravens got to Joe Burrow three times for sacks, and they held the Bengals to just 291 yards of offense. The 17 points scored by Cincinnati was their second-lowest total of the season.
With Jackson not likely to play, the quarterback focus will be on Burrow. Two of his three worst games by quarterback rating came against Baltimore this season. This stands in sharp contrast to last year when Burrow threw for 416 and 525 against the Ravens. His career record against Baltimore is 3-2.
For Tyler Huntley, this would be his first playoff start. Two years ago in a divisional round loss to the Bills, 17-3, he threw 13 passes in the fourth quarter in relief of an injured Jackson.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cowboys: 12-5, 10-7 ATS
Buccaneers: 8-9, 4-12-1 ATS
This is perhaps the most challenging game to figure out. The Buccaneers have looked like a bad team all season, and Tom Brady has looked like a quarterback who is tired of playing football. But then, when it was most needed, Brady and the Bucs put it all together to beat the Panthers. Brady threw for 432 yards and three touchdowns, all to Mike Evans.
And when it comes to playing in the postseason, Brady is the best there ever was.
For the Cowboys, they have looked like one of the best teams for much of the season. And then last week, they looked like one of the worst teams in losing to the Washington Commanders and rookie quarterback Sam Howell, making his first career start. And Dak Prescott looked wholly incapable of playing winning football.
He was 14-of-37 for 128 yards and had a brutal read on a pick-six interception in the second quarter. His only other similarly bad game this season came in Week 1 to these Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
And then there is the Cowboy's history in the postseason. They are 4-11 in the playoffs since they won the Super Bowl. They haven't won a playoff game on the road since January 1993.
Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Tony Pollard, and Zeke Elliott give the Dallas offense a number of ways to beat you. And Micah Parsons on defense gives the Cowboy's defense a true game-wrecker who can flip the field on any play.
But on the other sideline is Tom Brady. He has rediscovered Mike Evans. Unlike Dak, he hasn't thrown an interception in three weeks. And while Dak has one career postseason win, coming four years ago, Tom Brady has 35 career postseason wins, including five wins since the Cowboys last won in the postseason.
The charts read left to right like this:
1a.jpg
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
Seahawks: 9-8, 7-10 ATS
49ers: 13-4, 11-6 ATS
The last team to get into the playoffs is the first team to go on the road for the opening weekend of the postseason. Thanks to the Lions win over the Packers on Sunday night, Seattle took the seventh and final spot in the NFC. Their prize is a third game this season against the 49ers.
This isn’t the best matchup for the Seahawks. In their two games against the 49ers this season, they lost 27-7 and 21-13. They were two of Geno Smith’s worst games of the year. In the most recent meeting, which took place in Seattle, the Seahawks didn’t score a touchdown until the game was out of reach in the fourth quarter.
Seattle did win the last two games of the season when fighting for their playoff lives. But since Week 10 they are just 3-5.
Waiting for the Seahawks is the team playing the best football in the NFC, and possibly the NFL. They have won a league-high 10 games in a row and have scored more than 30 points in five of their last six games. With a defense that allows a league-best 16 points per game, the offensive production has the 49ers winning easily.
Over their 10-game winning streak, the average margin of victory for the 49ers is 16.1 points, and it’s hard to envision a scenario where the Seahawks can compete and keep up on the scoreboard.
San Francisco has gotten healthy, with Deebo Samuel now back on the field. George Kittle has become a touchdown machine, scoring seven times in the last four games. And Brock Purdy continues to amaze. The seventh-round rookie quarterback has 13 touchdowns to just three interceptions since taking over the offense in December.
14.33 | 10 | Quality Stats Power Rankings | 3.90 | 1 |
50% | 8 | Quality Standings | 80% | 2 |
14.68 | 9 | Scoreability | 13.81 | 3 |
15.33 | 19 | Bendability | 18.45 | 1 |
0.65 | 15 | Intelligence Index | 4.64 | 1 |
6.36 | 10 | Real Passing Yds/Attempt | 7.10 | 3 |
6.07 | 15 | Defensive Real Passing Yds/Attempt | 5.95 | 11 |
88.45 | 7 | Real Quarterback Rating | 92.98 | 2 |
76.88 | 13 | Defensive Real Quarterback Rating | 74.31 | 10 |
11.57 | 6 | Real Quarterback Rating Differential | 18.67 | 3 |
100.27 | 4 | Offensive Passer Rating | 102.25 | 2 |
87.56 | 13 | Defensive Passer Rating | 83.06 | 6 |
12.71 | 5 | Passer Rating Differential | 19.19 | 2 |
7.67 | 8 | Offensive Hog Index | 5.67 | 4 |
12.33 | 19 | Defensive Hog Index | 4.00 | 2 |
-0.20 | 13 | Relativity Index | 8.22 | 2 |
7,022 | 15 | Total Team Yards | 7,544 | 6 |
7,392 | 26 | Total Team Yards Allowed | 6,457 | 8 |
-370 | 22 | Total Team Yards Differential | 1,087 | 4 |
91.56 | 23 | Offensive Rusher Rating | 105.72 | 4 |
104.57 | 24 | Defensive Rusher Rating | 83.95 | 3 |
-13.01 | 27 | Rusher Rating Differential | 21.77 | 3 |
Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Chargers: 10-7, 11-5-1 ATS
Jaguars: 9-8, 8-9 ATS
The future of great quarterback play is the focus of the late AFC Wild Card game on Saturday night. Justin Herbert, the former Rookie of the Year, and Trevor Lawrence, the former No. 1 overall pick, are both making their first postseason starts.
Herbert was a breakout star as a rookie in 2020, and in 2021 he threw for over 5,000 yards. Lawrence was a disappointment as a rookie in 2021. But with the change at the head coach to Doug Pederson, he has emerged as a star in the making. Since the Jaguars turned it around in Week 9, Lawrence has 15 touchdowns to just two interceptions.
The turnaround for Lawrence paced one of the great team turnarounds in NFL history. The Jaguars were the worst team in the league in 2020 and 2021, getting the top draft pick in both years. Now they are the AFC South champions and hosting a playoff game for the first time since 2017.
The Jaguars are already in playoff mode, having to win in the final week of the regular season to get into the playoffs. The Chargers coasted in their final game, having already been locked into the No. 5 seed. Yet they still had all of their starters on the field late in their loss to the Broncos, and a number of key players got dinged up.
Joey Bosa had just been activated from the IR in Week 17, and he re-aggravated his groin injury in Denver. Wide receiver Mike Williams also left the game with back spasms. On a day when the most important players on the team should have been put in bubble wrap, they picked up unnecessary injuries that may affect their play on a short week of rest.
The Chargers are in the playoffs, which is a great thing for them and Herbert. But they go into the playoffs with far more questions than Jacksonville.
15.86 | 15 | Quality Stats Power Rankings | 11.52 | 7 |
17% | 27 | Quality Standings | 43% | 10 |
15.62 | 18 | Scoreability | 15.04 | 13 |
15.32 | 20 | Bendability | 17.16 | 4 |
-0.30 | 18 | Intelligence Index | 2.12 | 5 |
6.11 | 14 | Real Passing Yds/Attempt | 6.34 | 11 |
6.25 | 19 | Defensive Real Passing Yds/Attempt | 6.38 | 22 |
83.94 | 11 | Real Quarterback Rating | 85.21 | 9 |
79.40 | 17 | Defensive Real Quarterback Rating | 81.20 | 20 |
4.54 | 11 | Real Quarterback Rating Differential | 4.01 | 12 |
93.16 | 12 | Offensive Passer Rating | 93.77 | 9 |
87.67 | 14 | Defensive Passer Rating | 89.08 | 17 |
5.49 | 8 | Passer Rating Differential | 4.69 | 10 |
11.67 | 14 | Offensive Hog Index | 5.67 | 4 |
13.33 | 21 | Defensive Hog Index | 7.33 | 9 |
-0.88 | 16 | Relativity Index | 3.06 | 7 |
7,172 | 10 | Total Team Yards | 7,346 | 8 |
6,453 | 7 | Total Team Yards Allowed | 7,137 | 22 |
719 | 6 | Total Team Yards Differential | 209 | 12 |
95.42 | 20 | Offensive Rusher Rating | 96.18 | 17 |
104.73 | 25 | Defensive Rusher Rating | 88.49 | 10 |
-9.31 | 25 | Rusher Rating Differential | 7.69 | 11 |
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-9)
Dolphins: 9-8, 11-5-1 ATS
Bills: 13-3, 8-9 ATS
It wasn’t the prettiest of the Dolphins games this season. In fact, it was probably the ugliest. But the 11-6 win for Miami on Sunday was enough to put them into the playoffs and prevent one of the worst collapses in team history. Prior to beating the Jets, Miami had lost five straight games.
Four of those five losses were with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback, including their three-point loss to the Bills in Week 15. In that game, the Dolphin's best weapon was the running game, which bodes well for this week. Tua isn’t expected to play, and Teddy Bridgewater is the most likely starter on Sunday.
As a team in Week 15, the Dolphins ran for 188 yards, with 136 of them coming from Raheem Mostert. Expect to see a steady diet of Mostert, Jeff Wilson - who had 72 yards last week against the Jets, and Tyreek Hill - who hasn’t been used in the running game much this season, but he does have seven career rushing touchdowns.
We know what to expect from the Bills offense. Josh Allen. And then more Josh Allen.
In that Week 15 win for Buffalo, Allen had 381 total yards of offense and four touchdown passes. In the decisive 86-yard drive for the game-winning field goal, Allen converted three third downs and ran out the final six minutes of the game.
It was an enduring image of Allen. In the snow in Buffalo, doing everything he could with his arm and his legs to lead the Bills to their most important win of the regular season. Now he hopes to replicate that success, and that image, in this Sunday’s playoff game - the seventh postseason start of his career.
16.14 | 17 | Quality Stats Power Rankings | 5.24 | 2 |
44% | 9 | Quality Standings | 71% | 5 |
15.61 | 17 | Scoreability | 13.98 | 5 |
14.39 | 27 | Bendability | 17.85 | 2 |
-1.22 | 20 | Intelligence Index | 3.87 | 2 |
7.29 | 2 | Real Passing Yds/Attempt | 6.80 | 6 |
6.01 | 13 | Defensive Real Passing Yds/Attempt | 5.63 | 7 |
83.74 | 12 | Real Quarterback Rating | 88.99 | 6 |
85.60 | 25 | Defensive Real Quarterback Rating | 70.94 | 4 |
-1.86 | 20 | Real Quarterback Rating Differential | 18.05 | 4 |
95.00 | 8 | Offensive Passer Rating | 95.91 | 7 |
95.58 | 29 | Defensive Passer Rating | 82.48 | 5 |
-0.58 | 17 | Passer Rating Differential | 13.43 | 4 |
11.33 | 13 | Offensive Hog Index | 2.67 | 1 |
7.33 | 9 | Defensive Hog Index | 7.67 | 10 |
0.99 | 10 | Relativity Index | 9.83 | 1 |
6,993 | 16 | Total Team Yards | 7,710 | 4 |
6,999 | 17 | Total Team Yards Allowed | 6,440 | 5 |
-6 | 15 | Total Team Yards Differential | 1,270 | 3 |
96.16 | 18 | Offensive Rusher Rating | 97.43 | 14 |
99.97 | 22 | Defensive Rusher Rating | 86.83 | 7 |
-3.81 | 20 | Rusher Rating Differential | 10.60 | 8 |
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-3)
Giants: 10-7, 13-4 ATS
Vikings: 13-4, 7-9-1 ATS
Each of the playoff games this weekend is a rematch of a game in the regular season. None finished quite like the first game between the Giants and Vikings. On Christmas Eve the Vikings scored 17 points in the fourth quarter, including a 61-yard field by Greg Joseph to win the game as time expired.
Saquon Barkley had 133 total yards of offense. Daniel Jones threw for 344 yards and ran for another 34. Kirk Cousins had 299 yards passing and three touchdowns. Both Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson went over 100 yards, and they combined for 25 catches and three touchdowns.
It was one of the most entertaining games of the entire season, and Giants vs. Vikings Part II promises to be one of the best games of the weekend.
We have two first-year head coaches in Kevin O’Connell and Brian Daboll, and both should receive votes for Coach of the Year. Especially Daboll, who took over a team that was 4-13 last year.
We have two of the most dynamic running backs in the NFL in 2022. Dalvin Cook finished the year with 1,468 total yards, and Barkley finished with 1,650 total yards. They each finished the 2022 season with 10 touchdowns.
Where the advantages lie are on defense for the Giants, and at wide receiver for the Vikings. Minnesota boasts Jefferson, Adam Thielen, K.J. Osborn, and Hockenson. New York has Darius Slayton and duct tape.
The Giants do have the much better defense. They rank eighth in Bendability, as compared to 15th for the Vikings. And while New York’s 23rd ranking in Total Team Yards Allowed isn’t great, when compared to Minnesota’s 32nd ranking, it’s a big advantage.
Where the Giants really shine is in getting off the field. They rank fifth in the NFL in third down defense.
15.90 | 16 | Quality Stats Power Rankings | 15.67 | 13 |
22% | 25 | Quality Standings | 57% | 7 |
15.55 | 16 | Scoreability | 14.49 | 8 |
16.41 | 8 | Bendability | 15.48 | 15 |
0.86 | 14 | Intelligence Index | 0.99 | 11 |
5.55 | 25 | Real Passing Yds/Attempt | 6.24 | 13 |
5.97 | 12 | Defensive Real Passing Yds/Attempt | 6.89 | 29 |
86.43 | 8 | Real Quarterback Rating | 82.79 | 13 |
79.52 | 18 | Defensive Real Quarterback Rating | 83.07 | 23 |
6.91 | 8 | Real Quarterback Rating Differential | -0.28 | 17 |
91.51 | 14 | Offensive Passer Rating | 93.37 | 11 |
89.51 | 18 | Defensive Passer Rating | 91.50 | 21 |
2.00 | 14 | Passer Rating Differential | 1.87 | 15 |
7.67 | 8 | Offensive Hog Index | 11.67 | 14 |
12.67 | 20 | Defensive Hog Index | 10.33 | 15 |
-1.10 | 18 | Relativity Index | -0.20 | 13 |
6,517 | 24 | Total Team Yards | 7,500 | 7 |
7,218 | 23 | Total Team Yards Allowed | 8,091 | 32 |
-701 | 26 | Total Team Yards Differential | -591 | 23 |
105.72 | 4 | Offensive Rusher Rating | 104.98 | 5 |
98.15 | 19 | Defensive Rusher Rating | 101.39 | 23 |
7.57 | 12 | Rusher Rating Differential | 3.59 | 14 |
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)
Ravens: 10-7, 7-9-1 ATS
Bengals: 12-4, 12-4 ATS
We do not expect to see Lamar Jackson on the field on Sunday night. As hopeful as things sounded a month ago, they have turned very doubtful. A doubt that the Ravens showed last week when they sat backup Tyler Huntley to protect his health for this game.
Have we seen the last of Lamar Jackson this season? Have we seen the last of him in a Ravens uniform? He is a free agent this offseason. He could be tagged, he could be signed, or he could go to another team. But whatever is in his future, it’s hard to see how the Ravens can do much this postseason without him.
Jackson did play in the first meeting between these two teams, won by Baltimore, 19-17. Jackson threw for 174 yards and ran for 58. The real star of the game offensively for the Ravens that day was all-everything kicker Justin Tucker, who was four-for-four on field goals, including one from 58 yards.
The Ravens got to Joe Burrow three times for sacks, and they held the Bengals to just 291 yards of offense. The 17 points scored by Cincinnati was their second-lowest total of the season.
With Jackson not likely to play, the quarterback focus will be on Burrow. Two of his three worst games by quarterback rating came against Baltimore this season. This stands in sharp contrast to last year when Burrow threw for 416 and 525 against the Ravens. His career record against Baltimore is 3-2.
For Tyler Huntley, this would be his first playoff start. Two years ago in a divisional round loss to the Bills, 17-3, he threw 13 passes in the fourth quarter in relief of an injured Jackson.
13.05 | 9 | Quality Stats Power Rankings | 7.76 | 6 |
25% | 23 | Quality Standings | 57% | 6 |
16.46 | 22 | Scoreability | 13.80 | 2 |
17.50 | 3 | Bendability | 16.68 | 6 |
1.04 | 9 | Intelligence Index | 2.88 | 4 |
5.78 | 20 | Real Passing Yds/Attempt | 6.48 | 8 |
6.15 | 17 | Defensive Real Passing Yds/Attempt | 6.22 | 18 |
80.39 | 16 | Real Quarterback Rating | 92.36 | 3 |
78.84 | 15 | Defensive Real Quarterback Rating | 73.65 | 8 |
1.55 | 16 | Real Quarterback Rating Differential | 18.71 | 2 |
82.13 | 23 | Offensive Passer Rating | 101.39 | 3 |
88.36 | 15 | Defensive Passer Rating | 80.24 | 2 |
-6.23 | 23 | Passer Rating Differential | 21.15 | 1 |
5.33 | 3 | Offensive Hog Index | 11.33 | 13 |
3.33 | 1 | Defensive Hog Index | 7.33 | 9 |
2.44 | 8 | Relativity Index | 6.75 | 4 |
6,738 | 21 | Total Team Yards | 6,824 | 19 |
6,286 | 3 | Total Team Yards Allowed | 6,548 | 9 |
452 | 8 | Total Team Yards Differential | 276 | 10 |
97.25 | 16 | Offensive Rusher Rating | 97.41 | 15 |
84.78 | 5 | Defensive Rusher Rating | 88.74 | 11 |
12.47 | 7 | Rusher Rating Differential | 8.67 | 10 |
Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cowboys: 12-5, 10-7 ATS
Buccaneers: 8-9, 4-12-1 ATS
This is perhaps the most challenging game to figure out. The Buccaneers have looked like a bad team all season, and Tom Brady has looked like a quarterback who is tired of playing football. But then, when it was most needed, Brady and the Bucs put it all together to beat the Panthers. Brady threw for 432 yards and three touchdowns, all to Mike Evans.
And when it comes to playing in the postseason, Brady is the best there ever was.
For the Cowboys, they have looked like one of the best teams for much of the season. And then last week, they looked like one of the worst teams in losing to the Washington Commanders and rookie quarterback Sam Howell, making his first career start. And Dak Prescott looked wholly incapable of playing winning football.
He was 14-of-37 for 128 yards and had a brutal read on a pick-six interception in the second quarter. His only other similarly bad game this season came in Week 1 to these Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
And then there is the Cowboy's history in the postseason. They are 4-11 in the playoffs since they won the Super Bowl. They haven't won a playoff game on the road since January 1993.
Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Tony Pollard, and Zeke Elliott give the Dallas offense a number of ways to beat you. And Micah Parsons on defense gives the Cowboy's defense a true game-wrecker who can flip the field on any play.
But on the other sideline is Tom Brady. He has rediscovered Mike Evans. Unlike Dak, he hasn't thrown an interception in three weeks. And while Dak has one career postseason win, coming four years ago, Tom Brady has 35 career postseason wins, including five wins since the Cowboys last won in the postseason.
7.62 | 4 | Quality Stats Power Rankings | 18.00 | 20 |
75% | 3 | Quality Standings | 29% | 19 |
12.92 | 1 | Scoreability | 18.83 | 30 |
16.41 | 8 | Bendability | 15.40 | 17 |
3.49 | 3 | Intelligence Index | -3.43 | 29 |
6.41 | 9 | Real Passing Yds/Attempt | 5.93 | 18 |
5.65 | 8 | Defensive Real Passing Yds/Attempt | 5.62 | 6 |
80.73 | 15 | Real Quarterback Rating | 84.82 | 10 |
70.11 | 3 | Defensive Real Quarterback Rating | 79.19 | 16 |
10.62 | 7 | Real Quarterback Rating Differential | 5.63 | 10 |
88.01 | 16 | Offensive Passer Rating | 89.41 | 15 |
84.94 | 10 | Defensive Passer Rating | 92.77 | 23 |
3.07 | 13 | Passer Rating Differential | -3.36 | 19 |
8.33 | 9 | Offensive Hog Index | 13.33 | 18 |
7.67 | 10 | Defensive Hog Index | 9.00 | 13 |
5.84 | 5 | Relativity Index | -1.71 | 21 |
7,042 | 14 | Total Team Yards | 7,046 | 13 |
6,734 | 12 | Total Team Yards Allowed | 6,846 | 15 |
308 | 9 | Total Team Yards Differential | 200 | 13 |
111.70 | 3 | Offensive Rusher Rating | 67.89 | 31 |
76.60 | 1 | Defensive Rusher Rating | 89.95 | 12 |
35.10 | 1 | Rusher Rating Differential | -22.06 | 30 |