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  • #1

    wildcard round

    buf under 43.5
    sf under 42.5


    realize buf total went down about 3 pts because mia will be starting their 3rd string qb .. sounds like their OL is pretty banged up also..had this system since monday (parlay on nat championship game) so would've been nice to get in yesterday


    both of these are the same system..5 games and all double digit margins .. wildcard round specific


    haven't looked at the others yet
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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  • #2
    since week 3 division dogs>6 are 18-1 ATs when they weren't involved in a really close game last week and weren't small dogs
    DIV and line>6 and season=2022 and week>2 and not 3<p:line<5.5 and not-2<p:margin<3

    SEA, MIA, and BAL
    18-1-0 (7.95, 94.7%) avg line: 9.3

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    • #3
      on lac -1.5

      0-9 (-13.83)

      core is fading home wildcard teams with <= 4 previous regular season wins..7 double digit margins
      ..other restrictions i consider minor
      _______________________________________________
      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

      Comment

      • #4

        Comment

        • #5
          Originally posted by Chamblin View Post
          thanks chamblin


          _______________________________________________
          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

          Comment

          • #6
            min -3


            6-0 (19.25)

            smallest 9

            wildcard specific..applies to buf also but line way out of range of the sample
            _______________________________________________
            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

            Comment

            • #7

              Comment

              • #8
                min under 48.5




                0-6 o/u (-17.67)

                11.5/12.5 smallest


                wildcard round
                home
                >= 11 wins

                2 other parameters
                _______________________________________________
                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                Comment

                • #9
                  pretty simple one. if big home fav is playing first game in playoffs they win and cover

                  p:playoffs = 0 and playoffs = 1 and H and line < -9.5

                  15-0-0 (18.40, 100.0%)
                  14-1-0 (6.80, 93.3%) avg line: -11.6 +6: 15-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 8-7-0 (53.3%) +10: 15-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 3-11-1 (21.4%)
                  11-4-0 (4.83, 73.3%) avg total: 48.1 +6: 7-8-0 (46.7%) -6: 12-3-0 (80.0%) +10: 5-10-0 (33.3%) -10: 12-3-0 (80.0%)
                  29.6 118.0 33.7 304.3 23.3 1.1 7.0 11.9 8.7 8.0 35.7
                  22.4 88.2 37.3 228.7 22.5 2.0 4.1 4.4 2.9 5.9 17.3
                  Jan 15, 2023 view Sunday 19 2022 Bills Dolphins home -13.5 43.5
                  Last edited by rolltide; 01-14-2023, 07:50 AM.

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    season systems:
                    UNDER off fav blowout loss, total>39, off terrible offense (2-37 ou = TB/DAL u)
                    OVER turf dog or small fav NDIV won <6LY off a loss in game scored<40 (49-3 ou = NYG/MIN over)

                    playoff specific:
                    OPPOSE playoff team 9+ wins in a row and opp not off blowout win (0-14 = on SEA)
                    OPPOSE playoff team that just lost by 14+ (3-17-1 = on TB) also 6 straight unders

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      total equal or higher than previous season meeting in this stadium, home team not a 4+ fav (1-15 ATS = on NYG)

                      playoffs=1 and P:season=season and P:H and H and P:total-total>-1 and P:margin>-13 and division!=AFC West and line>-4
                      3-13-0 (-9.31, 18.8%) SU
                      1-15-0 (-11.16, 6.2%) ATS

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        playoff teams like SF on 9+ win streak with 12+ wins and average more than 3 red zone attempts / game are 0-17 ATS when facing opponent avg <4.2 red zone attempts per game

                        streak>8 and playoffs=1 and wins>11 and tA(RZA)>3 and otA(RZA)<4.21

                        6-11-0 (-2.94, 35.3%)
                        0-17-0 (-8.29, 0.0%) avg line: -5.4 +6: 7-10-0 (41.2%) -6: 0-17-0 (0.0%) +10: 11-6-0 (64.7%) -10: 0-17-0 (0.0%)
                        8-9-0 (1.85, 47.1%) avg total: 44.6 +6: 4-13-0 (23.5%) -6: 9-7-1 (56.2%) +10: 4-13-0 (23.5%) -10: 12-3-2 (80.0%)
                        28.1 112.1 41.5 266.8 25.6 2.2 3.2 7.8 3.5 7.2 21.8
                        27.1 113.2 34.0 237.6 20.6 1.0 5.5 6.4 5.6 6.6 24.7
                        Jan 14, 2023 view Saturday 19 2022 Fortyniners Seahawks home -9.5 42.0

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                        • #13
                          Good reading in here guys, thank you

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                          • #14

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                            • #15
                              dreadful not enough

                              5-0 (20.5) all double digits


                              https://gimmethedog.com/NFL?q=game%2...streak%20%3E-2



                              tam +3
                              _______________________________________________
                              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                              Comment

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