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week 14 starting w/ tnf

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  • #1

    week 14 starting w/ tnf

    day = Thursday and p:HL and H and surface = artificial and o:streak >=3 and week >9

    thursday
    home
    previous home loss
    artificial surface
    opp on a 3+ win streak
    week >9


    4-0 o/u (17.88) 24/15*/15.5/17

    * OT .. 3 points

    biggest dog sample a negative for me..not committing yet

    https://killersports.com/nfl/query?o...+S+D+Q+L+%21++




    .
    Last edited by bleeker; 12-06-2022, 06:35 PM.
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
    Tags: None
  • #2
    week > 11 and 3 < wins - o:wins < 9 and o:wins < 7 and D and op:turnover margin > -2 and p:TOM <2 and op:RY >62

    week > 11
    dog
    4-8 wins more than opponent
    opponent <7 wins
    opp didn't have 2+ less turnovers than p:opp
    team didn't have 2+ more turnovers than p:opp
    opp previous rushing yards > 62

    10-0 o/u (18.00)

    all but one are double digits

    in spite of no line limitation all but one (the last one) are <= 3 pt dogs


    half are week 17 games which is not surprising but even with the ones that aren't the avg margin is 17+


    https://killersports.com/nfl/query?o...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

    min over 52.5

    non commital...boldface is commital




    .
    Last edited by bleeker; 12-08-2022, 07:52 AM.
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

    Comment

    • #3
      Originally posted by bleeker View Post
      week &gt; 11 and 3 &lt; wins - o:wins &lt; 9 and o:wins &lt; 7 and D and op:turnover margin &gt; -2 and p:TOM &lt;2 and op:RY &gt;62

      week &gt; 11
      dog
      4-8 wins more than opponent
      opponent &lt;7 wins
      opp didn't have 2+ less turnovers than opp
      team didn't have 2+ more turnovers
      opp previous rushing yards &gt; 62

      10-0 o/u (18.00)

      all but one are double digits

      in spite of no line limitation all but one (the last one) are &lt;= 3 pt dogs


      half are week 17 games which is not surprising but even with the ones that aren't the avg margin is 17+


      https://killersports.com/nfl/query?o...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

      min over 52.5

      non commital...boldface is commital




      .
      big difference avg margin for 30's totals (21+) then for 40's totals (14 +) ..also it's the highest total by a point and the next lowest is by 9 pts..both significant negatives to me
      _______________________________________________
      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

      Comment

      • #4
        surface split (5/5) and the avg margin on artificial surfaces 22.1 (det) while grass 13.9


        https://killersports.com/nfl/query?o...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
        _______________________________________________
        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

        Comment

        • #5
          interesting thing is all 3 nfl systems I've found this week (1 is in michelangelo's sdql query thread) have issues with out of range lines or totals..I really don't want to risk a unit on tonight's game with that going on so toning it down to a half unit and putting it in a 4 team parlay..you guessed it.. leg two is a/n total lol



          lar over 43.5
          a/n under 32.5
          min over 52.5
          hou +17 (buy half)


          about +1155 (half unit)
          Last edited by bleeker; 12-08-2022, 08:34 AM.
          _______________________________________________
          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

          Comment

          • #6
            Good luck, bleeker. Party gets started tonight!!

            Comment

            • #7
              Originally posted by BT View Post
              Good luck, bleeker. Party gets started tonight!!
              thanks b t

              hopefully at least make it to saturday
              _______________________________________________
              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

              Comment

              • #8

                Comment

                • #9
                  Good luck with the parlay, bleeker.

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Michelangelo View Post
                    Good luck with the parlay, bleeker.
                    thanks mich
                    _______________________________________________
                    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                    Comment

                    • #11

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        DIV and 13<=week <=15 and losses =1 and AF and o:losses <9

                        division
                        wk 13-15
                        away favorite
                        1 loss
                        opp losses < 9


                        0-8 o/u (-14.38)

                        https://killersports.com/nfl/query?o...+S+D+Q+L+%21++



                        pha under 44.5
                        _______________________________________________
                        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                        Comment

                        • #13

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            all posted between this thread , michelangelo's and kc is from last weeks as mentioned below



                            buf under 43.5
                            on hou +17 *
                            min over 51.5
                            phi under 44.5
                            on kc -9 **

                            *
                            out of range but avg margin too good


                            **

                            last week system that lost for 1st time (on sea) ..smaller margin than all the winners covered by so give it another go

                            1-13 (-15.50) now
                            _______________________________________________
                            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              Great work as always, bleeker. Thanks for posting and good luck today!

                              Comment

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