Stinkers Week 12

[Michelangelo]

Wk 1 /// 6-4 +191
Wk 2 /// 9-3 +599
Wk 3 /// 5-6 -141
Wk 4 /// 5-6 -129
Wk 5 /// 5-9 -422
Wk 6 /// 5-8 -315
Wk 7 /// 9-3 +584
Wk 8 /// 8-3 +516
Wk 9 /// 5-3-1 +200
Wk 10 /// 6-4 +199
Wk 11 /// 8-4 +393

be back

[Michelangelo]

Thanksgiving:

Detroit +10 -113 (vs Buff)
Detroit couldn't possibly compete with the Boys from Buffalo. Errrr... maybe they could. The record of the teams that Detroit has played at home this year is 32-20. And they haven't lost a game by more than 4 points. Since popping the "we got our ring and now we fat and happy" Rams in the mouth 31-10 in the opening game of the year, Buff has gone 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS on the road. 10 points? Way too many.

Dallas -10' -103 (vs NYG)
The Cowboys beat the Giants 23-16 in New York in Week 3 with Cooper Rush at the helm. With Dak they will make it ugly. Teams who win by 21 or more on the road and then play on Thanksgiving Day are 7-0 SU and ATS (credit my friend Thomas).

[Michelangelo]

Screwed up by not getting the Vikings up here after the work the guys did in the SDQL thread. Hope some of you guys used that info to your advantage.

///

Sunday early games:

NYJ -7 +106 (vs Chi)
This is the first creampuff the Jets have seen at home this season. The combined records of the teams they have played at home thusfar is 34-18. All five of them have winning records. Mike White ain't much but the team has to be happy that he's taking over after that dumb post game press conference response by Wilson last week. Chicago can't stop anyone. The Jets have a mean Defense. As long as they don't just throw their helmets on the field the Jets should win comortably. Teams off a loss while allowing 11 points or fewer are 14-2 ATS in their next game since 2015 (something carlitosway brought here)

Atlanta +3' -101 (@ Wash)
Last season these teams met up and Wash got the win 34-30 as 2 point favs. Atlanta will come to play today to avenge the one that got away. Wash? They'll be looking ahead to two back to back games with the Giants.

Cincy -1 +103 (@ Tenny)
The Titties have won eight straight to the number. They are playing better than anyone thought. But when that ATS streak breaks it will be to a passing team. They allowed Maholmes to throw for 422 three games ago when he beat them in Kansas City. I'm expecting Burrow to go off today and knock Tenny off that ATS perch.

Carolina +1 +102 (vs Denv)
Can a wiser Sam Darnold be worse than Baker Mayfield and PJ Walker? He won't have to do much because his opposition, Denver, has 7 TDs in their last 6 games, and three of them came in one game with Jacksonville.

Den / Car Under 36' -112 (see above)

Cleveland +3 +104 (vs TBy)
Tampa lost their last two road games to Pitt and Carolina. Is Cleveland any worse than those two bums? Stefanski has to stop making stupid in game calls.

[Michelangelo]

Add:

Houston +14 -104 (@ Mia)
Houston ran for a paltry 21 yds last week at Washington. Teams whose running ames were stuffed to the tune of 1 yd per rush have proven to be great bounceback teams going 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS in their next games (carlitosway stuff).

[Chamblin]

[Michelangelo]

Add:

Passing on the LVR Sea game. Something stinks. That line should be Seattle -8.

I have no faith in either the Cardinals or the Chargers. Passing on that one too.

KCy -16' +105
The Rams send their B offense into Kansas City. I know the Chiefs are 3-6 as DD favs since the back half of last season. And I know that in 5 home games this season the Chiefs have a +13 point differential. And no there were no blowouts inthere to skew the numbers. And I know after this stumbling, bumbling defending Super Bowl Champ they get the team (Cincy) who beat them in the CC last year. I don't care. It's time for the Chiefs to beat the snot out of someone. Today is the day.

[Michelangelo]

Add:

New Orleans +9' -117 (@ San Fran
I just don't belueve in the hype that follows this San Francisco. They lost straight up to Chicago, Denver, and Atlanta. No elite team loses three games to bums like that. The Saints aren't gangbusters themselves but they are better than those three.

[Chamblin]

[Michelangelo]

Add:

Philly -6' -103 (vs GBy)
This year's Aaron Rodgers is not the Aaron Rodgers of the past. On the road he has 7 TDs and 6 Ints. That ain't gonna cut it against the team who leads the NFL in takeaways. Yep. Philly has the most interceptions (13); the most takeaways (21); and the best turnover differential (+12). In case you're wondering, Jalen Hurts has a 9-3 TD to Int ratio when playing at home. And add in another 4 home rushing TDs.

[Chamblin]

[BT]

Looks like another winning week, Jim!

[Michelangelo]

Looks like another winning week, Jim!

Not by much, Brian. Needed a little luck that never showed up this week.

///

It has been a nail biting weekend in this thread. Unfortunately Dallas got backdoored; Mariotta got picked in the end zone from inside his 10 yd line as his pass got tipped as Atlanta was closing in on beating Wash; instead of taking two extra points Houston went for two on two TDs, missed both. Kicking the extra points or making one of the two point conversions would have been a cover, Nope.; I had the hook with KCy (16'). They won by 16. Of course Maholmes got picked in the end zone from inside the 10; And New Orleans had 1st and goal from inside the 5 two different times in the fourth quarter in Frisco. Couldn't score the covering TD either time. Kudos to Frisco's D. Fortunately I had a bunch of winners to offset. The NFL can make you tear your hair out!

Add Monday:

Indianapolis -2' -112 (vs Pit)
Two gritty teams who will be clawing to win on national TV. Kenny Pickett is coming along but he only has one TD against 5 ints in his three road starts. Matt Ryan on the other hand has 7 TDs and 1 int in his four home starts. And it appears that the guy who was everyone's consensus top RB last year, Jonathan Taylor, is finally healthy. Indy has played four of the league's best teams at home this year with a combined record of 33-12 They have a -6 point differential in those four games. Pitt has played four of the leagues best teams on the road this year (combined 33-11). They have a -60 point differential in those games. Going with the better team at home in a game I'm expecting both teams to show for.