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No Love for the Home Dog - Week 4

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  • No Love for the Home Dog - Week 4

    1-0 last week, which brings the system to 1-1 ATS on the season.

    Week 1 - Jets +7 - Loss
    Week 2 - no plays
    Week 3 - Colts +6' - Win
    Week 4- no plays

    Only 3 home doggies this week (Falcons Ravens and Texans) and none fit the system.

    =====

    Some thoughts on the 3 dogs.

    Browns at Falcons - looks like tons of offense to me. Total is 47.5
    Cleveland has Myles "Formula 1" Garrett banged up and Clowney is banged up. Browns also lost their team captain / middle linebacker last week to injury. Mariota is the new Tannehill in Arthur Smith's offense. He runs the system, the plays work, and it's a pretty good offense. At least it was last week in Seattle.
    75% of the yahoo pick'em players chose the Browns to win this game and for good reason. The Browns should be able to run the football all day. I like the over 47'


    Bills at Ravens - Ravens are getting 3 points? That's weird. If Lamar is playing at an MVP level, I expected the Ravens to be favored, with or without their left tackle(s).

    Chargers at Texans - Not watching this. Keenan Allen is out. Joey Bosa is out. Chargers also lost their LT for the season. The season is not going in the right direction for the Chargers. Maybe the Texans can find a way to play some run defense this week.

    ====

    Confidence plays.

    Highest confidence spread play this week for Yahoo players is the Rams, with a 9.6 confidence.



    The last we saw of Jimmy G wasn't pretty. I understand why people would shy away from SF.
    It's not just contest players that have been picking the Rams. Must be some $ coming in on the Rams, as they are no longer getting 2.5 points.

    The 49ers are just one of four confidence plays this week.

    49ers -2'
    Texans +5
    Commandarz +3
    Jaguars +6'






    I thought Dallas would be a bigger favorite. I'm shocked 18% took WAS and only 3.


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