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Thursday night: That damn hook! Hoping I don't say that late tonight due to the very real possibility Cincy wins s/u by 3 but loses ats by a damn hook. Then again Miami is a beast, winning 11 of their last 12 games s/u & losing only 1 of those 11 s/u wins ats, that being as a -10 fav vs the Jets at home as they won s/u by 7. More on Miami's 11 of 12 s/u in a minute...
We'll see if this holds for tonight: Between weeks 2 to 15, any dog of more than +1 w/a total of 38 or more & less than 4 days rest, team won s/u as a home dog last week while scoring less than 27 points:
KillerSports.com
0-13 ats
Losing all games s/u by -7 or more & losing 11 of 13 s/u by -10 or more. Play against: Miami +3'
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Non-division road dogs with less than 4 days rest, previous opponent had at least 75 rushes & passes combined but 5 punts or less:
KillerSports.com
0-4 ats...against Miami +3'
&
4-0 o/u...on Over 48'
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Home favs with less than 4 days rest off being a road fav & current line is less than previous line +2 points:
KillerSports.com
2-0 ats...on Cincy -3'
&
2-0 o/u...on Over 48'
Average final score of: 38.0 - 22.5...both games since 2017
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In the AFC, non-division conference road dogs w/o a bye & a total between 40 to 50', team is a road fav of -3 or more next week:
KillerSports.com
0-2 ats...against Miami +3'
&
2-0 o/u...on Over 48'
Both blowout losses by -21 & -24 s/u & -17.5 & -21.5 ats. All 3 games lined at +3' each. The first 2 scores of 20-41 & 17-38.
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Now...back to Miami winning 11 of their last 12 games s/u...
Game number 4, week 4 road dogs of +3 or more, team has won at least 11 of their last 12 games s/u (not including playoffs):
KillerSports.com
0-2 ats...against Miami +3'
&
2-0 o/u...on Over 48'
Both blowout losses by -31 & -29 s/u & -27.5 & -25.0 ats. Avg final score of: 10 - 40.
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Those last 2 systems are rare, few & far between, but all 4 have been after the 2002 re-alignment & were lined +3', +3', +4 & +3'...we have the same here: +3'.
Those 4 games suggest a blowout by Cincy -3' over Miami tonight, with the total going Over 48' & Cincy scoring Over their team total.
As Always, BOL!!!
We'll see if this holds for tonight: Between weeks 2 to 15, any dog of more than +1 w/a total of 38 or more & less than 4 days rest, team won s/u as a home dog last week while scoring less than 27 points:
KillerSports.com
0-13 ats
Losing all games s/u by -7 or more & losing 11 of 13 s/u by -10 or more. Play against: Miami +3'
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Non-division road dogs with less than 4 days rest, previous opponent had at least 75 rushes & passes combined but 5 punts or less:
KillerSports.com
0-4 ats...against Miami +3'
&
4-0 o/u...on Over 48'
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home favs with less than 4 days rest off being a road fav & current line is less than previous line +2 points:
KillerSports.com
2-0 ats...on Cincy -3'
&
2-0 o/u...on Over 48'
Average final score of: 38.0 - 22.5...both games since 2017
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In the AFC, non-division conference road dogs w/o a bye & a total between 40 to 50', team is a road fav of -3 or more next week:
KillerSports.com
0-2 ats...against Miami +3'
&
2-0 o/u...on Over 48'
Both blowout losses by -21 & -24 s/u & -17.5 & -21.5 ats. All 3 games lined at +3' each. The first 2 scores of 20-41 & 17-38.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now...back to Miami winning 11 of their last 12 games s/u...
Game number 4, week 4 road dogs of +3 or more, team has won at least 11 of their last 12 games s/u (not including playoffs):
KillerSports.com
0-2 ats...against Miami +3'
&
2-0 o/u...on Over 48'
Both blowout losses by -31 & -29 s/u & -27.5 & -25.0 ats. Avg final score of: 10 - 40.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Those last 2 systems are rare, few & far between, but all 4 have been after the 2002 re-alignment & were lined +3', +3', +4 & +3'...we have the same here: +3'.
Those 4 games suggest a blowout by Cincy -3' over Miami tonight, with the total going Over 48' & Cincy scoring Over their team total.
As Always, BOL!!!
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