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week 4 starting with thursday

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  • #1

    week 4 starting with thursday

    week =4 and losses =0 and A and o:wins

    not committing yet but thought results of this query kind of made some sense


    undefeated team away for week 4 relative to home opponent's wins

    0 wins
    16-5 o/u

    (almost) nothing to lose ..shot for redemption vs an undefeated team..play aggressive.. (understand 0-4 likely keeps you out of playoffs as a wildcard but I still say pedal to the medal for the winless team)


    1 win (tonight)
    9-16 o/u

    don't want to go to 1-3 ..more conservative


    2 wins
    16-8 o/u

    2-2 not horrible..home crowd and shot to beat an undefeated team ..aggressive


    3 wins
    6-7 o/u

    2 undefeated teams week 4..makes sense



    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
    Tags: None
  • #2
    I understand this one as well and it has some reason to it.

    Would be much inclined to bet a trend like this or west coast fly in ng east short week running team etc that those oddball ones you guys come up with.

    Not starting argument just saying this one u can kinda logic out.

    Mine tonite is cincic is a fkin good team.. Miamy may be a good team. Cinci season over if they don't win. Mia riding high after key division win. Short week. Banged up. Against non division (less important) team

    Put those fkin parameters in and I think you'll find a trend u can believe in.

    Comment

    • #3
      this is the only thing I found without doing a lot of looking

      week =4 and losses =0 and A and o:wins = 1 and total > 37 and line > -12.5 and o:streak != -2 and po:fumbles!= 0

      pretty straightforward

      not >12.5 favorite
      1 win team hasn't lost 2 in a row
      previous opp fumbled

      8-0 (11.25)

      so this'd be mia



      not nuts about this especially with the big gaps in the sample..think I like the other better factoring the overall logic behind it..the o/u for 1 win teams alone is nothing special
      _______________________________________________
      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

      Comment

      • #4
        try both for less


        mia +3.5.. half unit
        under 48.5..half unit
        _______________________________________________
        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

        Comment

        • #5
          2 < week < 6 and H and surface = grass and site streak = -1 and streak = 1 and po:score at the half < 21 and no:time zone != P and PRSW < 12 and o:PRSW != 8 and season > 2000


          week 3-5
          home
          grass
          off 1 game away
          off 1 game win streak
          previous opp score at half <21
          next opp not a pacific time zone team
          previous reg season wins <12
          opp previous regular season wins isn't 8 **
          2001

          ** only number I'll cancel for obvious reasons

          1-21 o/u (8.18)

          bal under 51
          Last edited by bleeker; 10-01-2022, 09:42 PM.
          _______________________________________________
          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
          • 1 like

          Comment

          • #6

            Comment

            • #7
              Originally posted by bleeker View Post
              2 < week < 6 and H and surface = grass and site streak = -1 and streak = 1 and po:score at the half < 21 and no:time zone != P and PRSW < 12 and o:PRSW != 8 and season > 2000


              week 3-5
              home
              grass
              off 1 game away
              off 1 game win streak
              previous opp score at half <21
              next opp not a pacific time zone team
              previous reg season wins <12
              opp previous regular season wins isn't 8 **
              2001

              ** only number I'll cancel for obvious reasons

              1-21 o/u (8.18)

              bal under 51
              Damn-n-n Glenn...much respect...that's some mind-blowing, deep-diving, nugget-huntin'...made me have to stop & actually think for a second...like going from algebra I to calculus IV on a dime...wobbled...on tilt...now I think I'm concussed.........

              Comment

              • #8
                Originally posted by Riderx View Post

                Damn-n-n Glenn...much respect...that's some mind-blowing, deep-diving, nugget-huntin'...made me have to stop & actually think for a second...like going from algebra I to calculus IV on a dime...wobbled...on tilt...now I think I'm concussed.........
                thanks rider.. I try to look for biases in broad categories and whittle down from there.. like week range and I think 2nd thing I did was surface , then streak or site streak... some pretty tame things led to a significant tilt in the results.. quite a few things I passed on as the samples and avg margins combined weren't enough for me
                _______________________________________________
                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                Comment

                • #9
                  I know exactly what you're talkin' about & it's amazing what you can find!

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    p:score after the third = 0 and p:HD and po:quarter scores [3] < 14 and 4 < PRSW < 12 and p:penalties < 11 and po:penalties < 9 and line > -2.5 and p:line < 8.5 and op:rushing yards < 249

                    p previous
                    o opponent


                    p: points through 3Q =0
                    ​​​​​p: home dog
                    p: points 4Q <14
                    p:RSW 5-11
                    p:penalties <11
                    po:penalties <9
                    op: rushing yards <249
                    favorite <2.5 or dog
                    p: <8.5 dog or favorite


                    36-3 (6.78)


                    was +3
                    _______________________________________________
                    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Glenn...tighten that last one: KillerSports.com

                      8-0 s/u...Wash on the m/l

                      BOL!!!

                      Comment

                      • #12

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Riderx View Post
                          Glenn...tighten that last one: KillerSports.com

                          8-0 s/u...Wash on the m/l

                          BOL!!!
                          really confused ..guess there's a little difference between the queries but I don't see it and get 36-3 ??
                          _______________________________________________
                          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            Originally posted by bleeker View Post
                            p:score after the third = 0 and p:HD and po:quarter scores [3] < 14 and 4 < PRSW < 12 and p:penalties < 11 and po:penalties < 9 and line > -2.5 and p:line < 8.5 and op:rushing yards < 249

                            p previous
                            o opponent


                            p: points through 3Q =0
                            ​​​​​p: home dog
                            p: points 4Q <14
                            p:RSW 5-11
                            p:penalties <11
                            po:penalties <9
                            op: rushing yards <249
                            favorite <2.5 or dog
                            p: <8.5 dog or favorite


                            36-3 (6.78)


                            was +3
                            https://killersports.com/nfl/query?o...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
                            _______________________________________________
                            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              I just changed the line to: 4>line>-1.5
                              & added: day=Sunday

                              Comment

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