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  • #1

    week 1

    found this a couple of days ago


    week = 1 and HD and division != o:division and season > 2000 and season!=2020 and on:site = home and n:site = away and line >2.5 and day!=Monday

    week 1
    home dog > 2.5
    next game away
    opp next game home
    non divisional game
    not monday
    2001..exclude 2020


    2-22-1 o/u (-8.64)


    https://killersports.com/nfl/query?o...+S+D+Q+L+%21++



    chi under 42
    nyj under 45


    ari ..not playing as it's the highest total and borderline for the line minimum




    .
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
    Tags: None
    • 1 like
  • #2
    32-38-1 (-0.94, 45.7%)
    48-20-3 (4.03, 70.6%) avg line: 5.0 +6: 60-11-0 (84.5%) -6: 31-36-4 (46.3%) +10: 62-9-0 (87.3%) -10: 16-51-4 (23.9%)
    36-35-0 (0.05, 50.7%) avg total: 43.0 +6: 20-50-1 (28.6%) -6: 47-23-1 (67.1%) +10: 12-59-0 (16.9%) -10: 56-13-2 (81.2%)
    27.6 115.5 31.6 196.4 19.1 1.4 3.5 7.0 4.2 6.3 21.0
    27.0 102.8 35.7 243.0 22.7 1.6 4.3 6.4 5.2 6.0 22.0
    Sep 11, 2022 view Sunday 1 2022 Vikings Packers home 2.0 48.0
    Sep 11, 2022 view Sunday 1 2022 Texans Colts home 8.0 44.0
    Sep 11, 2022 view Sunday 1 2022 Falcons Saints home 5.5 41.5
    game number = 1 and DIV and season > 2004 and PRSW < 9 and o:PRSW < 14 and line > 1

    AFC East is the only division <.500 but none of those teams qualify anyway. Knock out that division and make the total 39+ since 2009 and you're into 34-5 territory

    23-16-1 (2.55, 59.0%)
    34-5-1 (7.36, 87.2%) avg line: 4.8 +6: 37-3-0 (92.5%) -6: 20-16-4 (55.6%) +10: 38-2-0 (95.0%) -10: 11-27-2 (28.9%)
    23-17-0 (-0.16, 57.5%) avg total: 44.6 +6: 12-27-1 (30.8%) -6: 28-12-0 (70.0%) +10: 7-33-0 (17.5%) -10: 30-8-2 (78.9%)
    28.4 113.4 32.7 212.9 20.1 1.0 4.2 8.2 4.5 6.5 23.5
    23.9 88.3 38.6 271.4 24.9 1.8 3.6 5.8 5.2 6.1 20.9
    Sep 11, 2022 view Sunday 1 2022 Vikings Packers home 2.0 48.0
    Sep 11, 2022 view Sunday 1 2022 Texans Colts home 8.0 44.0
    Sep 11, 2022 view Sunday 1 2022 Falcons Saints home 5.5 41.5
    game number = 1 and division = o:division and D and season > 2004 and PRSW < 9 and o:PRSW < 14 and line > 1 and division != AFC East and total > 38.5 and season > 2008 and total > 38.5
    Last edited by rolltide; 08-28-2022, 08:46 AM.

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    • #3

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      • #4
        like that .. 2<PRSW <9 makes it 31-3-1


        game number = 1 and division = o:division and D and season > 2004 and 2 < PRSW < 9 and o:PRSW < 14 and line > 1 and division != AFC East and total > 38.5 and season > 2008
        _______________________________________________
        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

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        • #5
          Great stuff!

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          • #6

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            • #7
              Originally posted by bleeker View Post
              found this a couple of days ago


              week = 1 and HD and division != o:division and season > 2000 and season!=2020 and on:site = home and n:site = away and line >2.5 and day!=Monday

              week 1
              home dog > 2.5
              next game away
              opp next game home
              non divisional game
              not monday
              2001..exclude 2020


              2-22-1 o/u (-8.64)


              https://killersports.com/nfl/query?o...+S+D+Q+L+%21++



              chi under 42
              nyj under 45


              ari ..not playing as it's the highest total and borderline for the line minimum




              .
              better lines a few weeks ago but


              chi under 40.5
              nyj under 44
              _______________________________________________
              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

              Comment

              • #8
                rolltides from post #2

                hou +7
                atl +5.5


                probably going to pass min ..it's not showing up on the ks query now as line is right around the minimum
                _______________________________________________
                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                Comment

                • #9
                  yeah huge line move in Minn from +2 to -1.5 so not close to a qualifier anymore. line has to be at least +1.5

                  some stuff below...

                  sides:
                  OPPOSE week 1 dog 2+ kicked out early in LY playoffs vs opponent won <13 LY (1-25= on CIN, MIA, KC, LAC)
                  ON G1 team off a bad turnover margin year vs one off a good turnover margin year (48-26 = on ATL)
                  OPPOSE G1 DIV away won 9+ LY didn't win/lose last meeting by 21+ and line is 3+ (9-37 = on ATL, MIA, LAC)
                  PLAY ON G1 dogs won 4-5 games LY vs team won <12 LY (62-31 = on NYJ, CAR, HOU)
                  OPPOSE G1-2 team won 13+ LY, away and not 6.5+ fav (9-35 = on DAL)
                  PLAY ON G1 <7 away dogs won 0-6 LY (48-14 = on NYG, on JAX)
                  OPPOSE non-MNF G1 away dog won 9+ vs opponent won <12 (13-42 = on CIN, MIA, LAC)
                  PLAY ON G1 div dog 1.5+ won <9 LY vs opp won <14, total 39+ (34-5 = on ATL, on HOU)
                  PLAY ON <11 dog, no bye coming, avg >23.23+ ppg LY, vs opp won 5+ LY (130-55 = on NE, ARI, DAL)


                  totals:
                  OVER week 1 total 45+ Conf game neither team won 12+ LY (19-5 ou = MIA/NE o, LAC/LV o)
                  OVER 4-9 pt fav week 1 1st of b2b div games (12-1 ou = HOU/IND o, NO/ATL o)
                  UNDER road teams that won 4+ of L5 games LY and are not facing a team that finished with two-plus more wins (14-41 ou = BUF/LAR u, NO/ATL u, SF/CHI u, LV/LAC u, TB/DAL u)
                  UNDER week 1 nondiv 45+ away fav that won 8+ LY (6-21 ou = LAR/BUF u, PHI/DET u, KC/ARI u, TB/DAL u)
                  UNDER week 1 nondiv >37 away small fav or dog (16-42 ou = SF/CHI u, JAX/WAS u, KC/ARI u)
                  UNDER non-conf <47 not fav by 7+, no MNF on deck, opponent no bye week coming (13-65 ou = DEN/SEA u, CLE/CAR u, JAX/WAS u)
                  UNDER away NDIV won at least 4 of L5 games, had no more than 9 reg season unders vs opp that had at least 6 reg season unders (4-26 ou = BUF/LAR u, SF/CHI u, TB/DAL u)

                  G1 team trends:
                  Indy & NY Giants 1-10 SU with 1 cover
                  Lions 11-0 ou
                  KC & NO 8-2-1 ou
                  Browns 1-22-1 SU L24 openers, 7 covers

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                  • #10
                    great info, thank you!
                    2013 NCAAF 4-5 -1.5

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                    • #11
                      Bleeker and rolltide are putting together a SB team here.

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                      • #12
                        here's a strong OVER system for week 1 but might want to keep an eye on that Cincy weather....

                        OVERS are 19-1 ou when you have a week 1 away team that allowed at least 18 points in their previous 4 away games and turned it over 5+ times. If the home team won 9+ games and road team won 5+ games the over is 19-1 hitting by 10 ppg and both Steelers and Raiders qualify this year

                        week=1 and A and tpS(o:points >= 18 @ A and line>3,N=4)=4 and tpS(TO@ A and line>3,N=4)>4 and o:PRSW>8 and line<9.5 and season>1996 and PRSW>4
                        5-15-0 (-4.55, 25.0%)
                        9-9-2 (0.60, 50.0%) avg line: 5.2 +6: 14-6-0 (70.0%) -6: 6-14-0 (30.0%) +10: 15-5-0 (75.0%) -10: 3-16-1 (15.8%)
                        19-1-0 (9.38, 95.0%) avg total: 44.8 +6: 11-7-2 (61.1%) -6: 19-1-0 (95.0%) +10: 6-13-1 (31.6%) -10: 20-0-0 (100.0%)
                        26.1 119.3 35.0 234.7 22.6 1.5 3.4 8.9 5.9 6.6 24.8
                        26.6 105.4 35.3 274.9 23.3 1.8 5.8 8.1 7.7 7.3 29.4
                        Sep 11, 2022 view Sunday 1 2022 Raiders Chargers away 3.5 52.0
                        Sep 11, 2022 view Sunday 1 2022 Steelers Bengals away 7.0 44.5
                        • 1 like

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                        • #13
                          BLEEKER AND ROLLTIDE , time for you guys to join the POW contest this year, It only takes a second and it's fun with more people. Would greatly appreciate your participation with all the contributions you offer with your sdql on a regular basis
                          • 1 like

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                          • #14

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                            • #15

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