NFL Betting Info. Week 2

[jumperjack]

For those of you who monitor this type of thing, remember Washington/Illinois is being played at Soldier Field tonight (right now) and the Vikes/Bears play there tomorrow at noon. There is also rain in the forecast all thru gametime. We all know how bad that field is.

A few years ago it was the worst field in the NFL, looks to me like they got a handle on how to grow grass down there in Chicago these days Seriously though, the field looked fine at the end of the game today.

[TheGame]

A few years ago it was the worst field in the NFL, looks to me like they got a handle on how to grow grass down there in Chicago these days Seriously though, the field looked fine at the end of the game today.

Think all those years they went on the cheap for QB's they would have gotten a better lawn service before now. Just saying.
Now I can say that as a Lion fan. Our QB's might have stunk. But they were well compensated for it

[TheGame]

Sunday's NFL Week 2 Betting Cheat Sheet: Late Action
By Covers.com

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5, 47)

Drew Brees passed for 357 yards and a pair of touchdowns in Week 1 and torched Tampa Bay for 307 yards and four scores in that Dec. 16 meeting last season. The biggest test for the Saints secondary this week will be against wide receiver Vincent Jackson, who is the best playmaker on Bucs' offense

Tampa Bay was called for five penalties that led to first downs against the Jets, including a personal foul call on linebacker Lavonte David that set up the winning field goal with two seconds left. Freeman completed less than 50 percent of his passes (15-for-31), threw an interception and fumbled the ball out of the back of the end zone for a safety in the contest.

LINE: Saints opened -3.5 and moved to -3. Total moved from 46.5 to 47.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Saints (-3.0) + Bucs (+4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Bucs +4
WEATHER: Temps in low 90s. 30 percent chance of thundershowers. Winds east 6 mph.

TRENDS:

* Under is 8-1 in the last nine meetings.
* Saints are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Road team is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 meetings.

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (+1, 48.5)

Detroit came out of Week 1 healthy but is likely another week away from getting receiver Ryan Broyles back from a knee injury. The Lions can survive without Broyles thanks to a bevy of offensive weapons including Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush, who had 90 rushing yards and 101 receiving yards in his Detroit debut.

New starting quarterback Carson Palmer had a solid outing in Week 1, passing for 327 yards and two touchdowns, but he also threw an interception and was sacked four times. The Cardinals might be without two major offensive weapons as receiver Larry Fitzgerald and running back Rashard Mendenhall both are questionable with hamstring injuries.

LINE: Game opened pick and moved to Detroit -1. Total moved from 46.5 to 48.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Lions (0.0) + Cardinals (+5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Cardinals +2
WEATHER: N/A

TRENDS:

* Home team is 9-0 ATS in their last nine meetings.
* Over is 8-1 in the last nine meetings.
* Favorite is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (-5.5, 39)

The Jacksonville Jaguars will be without quarterback Blaine Gabbert when they visit the Oakland Raiders on Sunday. The second-year quarterback suffered a nasty laceration on his throwing hand that required 15 stitches during a season-opening 28-2 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs and veteran Chad Henne will start against the Raiders.

Oakland QB Terrelle Pryor was just the eighth quarterback since the 1970 merger to pass for at least 200 yards and run for 100 in the same game. Getting Darren McFadden untracked is crucial after the sixth-year back had only 48 yards – and a paltry 2.8 average – against the Colts. McFadden was limited to 53 yards (and a 2.8 average) by the Jaguars last season. Oakland recorded four sacks in the opener, a welcome development after having just 25 last season.

LINE: Oakland opened -7 and has moved to -5.5. Total moved from 39.5 to 39.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Jaguars (+7.5) - Raiders (+7.0) + home field (-3.0) = Raiders -3.5
WEATHER: Temps in mid 70s with clear skies. Winds WSW 12 mph.

TRENDS:

* Jaguars are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
* Under is 4-0 in Raiders' last four home games.

Denver Broncos at New York Giants (+4.5, 55)

Denver QB Peyton Manning won the previous two matchups SU and ATS versus his brother Eli when he was a member of the Indianapolis Colts. The Broncos run game remains in flux but the defense had four sacks and two interceptions despite the absences of Pro Bowlers Von Miller (suspension) and Champ Bailey (foot).

New York has serious concerns about its running game after starter David Wilson lost two fumbles and was benched and backup Da'Rel Scott was injured, necessitating the signing of former Giants back Brandon Jacobs. New York's receiving corps showed it has the requisite firepower to keep up with the Broncos, getting three touchdown receptions from Victor Cruz. The Giants could be shorthanded in the defensive backfield after cornerback Prince Amukamara suffered a concussion versus Dallas.

LINE: Denver opened -2 and moved to -4.5. Total moved from 53.5 to 55.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (-8.0) - Giants (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Giants +2.5
WEATHER: Temps in low 70s. Partly cloudy skies. Winds WSW 6 mph.

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
* Giants are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games in Week 2.
* Under is 17-7 in Giants' last 24 games overall.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 44)

San Francisco's Colin Kaepernick was sensational in Week 1, throwing for a career-best 412 yards and three touchdowns against an overwhelmed Packers defense. The 49ers were the only NFC West team with a winning road record last season (5-3). San Francisco WR Anquan Boldin, who erupted for 208 receiving yards and a touchdown in his 49ers debut.

When it comes to home-field advantage, no team enjoyed a bigger one last season than the Seahawks. They finished 8-0 at CenturyLink in 2012 and were especially dominant in their final four home games of the campaign, outscoring opponents by a 148-33 margin over that stretch. The home effect was evident when San Francisco visited last season, as the noisy crowd forced Kaepernick to call two first-quarter timeouts.

LINE: Seattle opened -2.5 and moved to -3. Total moved from 44.5 to 44.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: 49ers (-8.0) - Seahawks (-8.0) + home field (-3.0) = Seahawks -3
WEATHER: Temps in high 60s. 43 percent chance of showers. Winds SW 11 mph.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Seahawks are 41-20-2 ATS in their last 63 home games.

[TheGame]

Sunday's NFL Week 2 Betting Cheat Sheet: Early Action
By Covers.com

St. Louis Rams at Atlanta Falcons (-6.5, 47)

Sam Bradford benefited from former top overall pick Jake Long's presence and was not sacked in the Week 1 victory. Daryl Richardson, who replaced visiting RB Steven Jackson as the primary back in St. Louis, rushed for 63 yards on 20 carries in last week's win. Richardson likely will have company in the backfield on Sunday as Isaiah Pead returns from a one-game league suspension.

Matt Ryan could use some better protection after being sacked three times while being put under duress on 25-of-38 passing in the season opener. Ryan also has question marks at wide receiver as veteran Roddy White effectively serves as a decoy as he tries to work through a high ankle sprain. Pro Bowler Julio Jones has been limited in practice with a knee injury despite reeling in seven catches for 76 yards and a touchdown last week.

LINE: Opened Atlanta -7.5 and bet down to -6.5. Total steady at 47.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Rams (+2.5) + Falcons (-4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Falcons -9.5
WEATHER: N/A

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Over is 8-1 in the last nine meetings in Atlanta.
* Favorite is 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.

San Diego Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5, 55)

Philip Rivers completed only 14-of-29 passes against the Texans, including a 1-for-7 performance with a pick-six in the decisive fourth quarter. Rivers did throw four touchdown passes, but to provide a comparison, the Chargers ran a total of 51 plays against the Texans – two fewer than Philadelphia ran in the first half alone. San Diego, which was ravaged by injuries to its receivers in the preseason, did not have a player catch more than three passes or go over 50 yards against Houston.

Under the direction of Chip Kelly’s high-flying offense, the Eagles ran 53 first-half plays against the Washington Redskins on Monday night and extended their lead to 33-7 in the opening two minutes of the third quarter. After his team ran 77 plays and finished with 443 yards against Washington, Kelly actually said of the Eagles’ offense, “I felt like it was too slow, to be honest with you.”

LINE: Eagles opened -7.5 and bet down to -7. Total moved from 53 to 55.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Chargers (+2.5) - Eagles (+1.0) + home (-3.0) = Eagles -4.5
WEATHER: Temps mid 70s. Clear skies. Winds west 5 mph.

TRENDS:

* Chargers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Chargers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following SU loss.
* Eagles are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 home games.

Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 46.5)

Kansas City Chiefs first-year head coach Andy Reid will make his home debut Sunday against a team he knows all too well in the Dallas Cowboys. Reid was 17-12, including the playoffs, versus Dallas in his 14 years at the helm in Philadelphia. The Chiefs have lost their last two home openers by a combined score of 81-31.

Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo (bruised ribs) and wide receiver Dez Bryant (foot) are on target to play through their respective injuries. Dallas rode its defense to a 36-31 win over the New York Giants on Sunday in a game that saw the Cowboys force six turnovers, two of which they returned for touchdowns.

LINE: Chiefs opened as low as -1.5 and moved to -3. Total steady at 46.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cowboys (-2.5) + Chiefs (0.0) + home (-3.0) = Chiefs -0.5
WEATHER: Temps in low 80s. 34 percent chance of thundershowers. Winds SSW 12 mph.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Cowboys are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games in Week 2.
* Under is 17-5 in Chiefs' last 22 home games.

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-1, 43.5)

he first order of business for Miami is to fix a running game that averaged less than a yard per carry and saw starter Lamar Miller held to three yards on 10 attempts. Wide receiver Mike Wallace, the high-priced offseason acquisition that was brought in to provide Tannehill with a deep threat, also made headlines following the game by grousing about his role in the passing attack (one catch, 15 yards).

Colts QB Andrew Luck, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 draft, was sacked four times by the upset-minded Oakland Raiders but ran for the winning touchdown with just under 5 1/2 minutes to play - the eighth time he has directed a comeback win in the fourth quarter or overtime. Defense was also a concern for the Colts, who allowed Oakland to possess the ball for nearly 33 minutes.

LINE: Colts opened -3.5 moved as low as -2.5. Total moved from 42.5 to 43.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Dolphins (+1.0) - Colts (+1.5) + home (-3.0) = Colts -2.5
WEATHER: N/A

TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Indianapolis.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Underdog is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-9, 43)

The Titans' defense held the Steelers to 195 total yards and kept them off the scoreboard until Jerricho Cotchery caught a 4-yard touchdown pass with 1:23 remaining in the fourth quarter. Tennessee needed the strong defensive performance as its offense gained only 229 yards and produced just one touchdown and three field goals.

Controversy could be brewing in the Texans' backfield as Arian Foster was visibly upset after being waved off the field by backup Ben Tate during a fourth-quarter drive on Monday. Coach Gary Kubiak stated Foster, who missed the entire preseason with a calf injury, will be sharing the workload with Tate until he works his way back into form.

LINE: Houston opened -8.5 and moved as high as -10.5. Total moved from 42 to 43.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Titans (+3.5) + Texans (-4.5) + home (-3.0) = Texans -11
WEATHER: N/A

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Houston.
* Titans are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Houston.

Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers (-9.5, 49.5)

Washington's defense couldn't slow down the Eagles' frenetic offense, falling behind 33-7 before mounting a huge second-half rally in a 33-27 loss. Robert Griffin III looked like a player who missed virtually the entire preseason Monday night. The former Heisman winner was relegated to a pocket passer, perhaps by design, as Washington looked to protect his surgically repaired knee.

Aaron Rodgers was sharp in Green Bay's opener but aside from a couple flashes of speed out of the backfield from rookie Eddie Lacy (14 carries, 41 yards), the Packers were forced to resort to their one-dimensional air attack. Rodgers is nearly unbeatable at Lambeau Field, winning 19 of his last 20 starts there. Green Bay could be without tight end Jermichael Finley, who missed practice during the week due to a toe injury.

LINE: Packers opened -9 and moved to -7. Total moved from 49.5 to 50.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Redskins (+1.0) + Packers (-6.0) + home (-3.0) = Packers -10
WEATHER: Temps low 60s. 60 percent chance of rain. Winds west 5 mph.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Redskins are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, 44)

Defending Cleveland’s offense will be a bit easier as second-year quarterback Brandon Weeden is still trying to establish himself as a viable NFL signal caller. Weeden threw three interceptions and was sacked six times while completing 26-of-53 passes for 289 yards and one touchdown. The Ravens have defeated the Browns by an average of 12.9 points during the 10-game winning streak.

The Baltimore Ravens attempt to defeat Cleveland for the 11th consecutive time during John Harbaugh’s head coaching tenure when they host the Browns. Quarterback Joe Flacco put the ball in the air a career-high 62 times while passing for 362 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions against Denver. Getting Ray Rice untracked will be a priority as Baltimore’s top running back had just 71 total yards (36 rushing, 35 receiving) on 20 touches against Denver.

LINE: Ravens opened -7 and moved to -6.5. Total moved from 42 to 43.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Browns (+5.5) + Ravens (-1.5) + home (-3.0) = Ravens -10
WEATHER: Temps in low 70s. Clear skies. Winds south 5 mph.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
* Browns are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Road team is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills (+1, 44)

Carolina needs to get something going down the field - Newton was 16-for-23 for a career-low 125 yards against Seattle - to open things up for the running game. The pass defense struggled a week ago and needs to pressure Bills QB E.J. Manuel after sacking Russell Wilson only once in the opener.

Buffalo had limited success on offense in Week 1 but needs more from electric running back C.J. Spiller, who fumbled on his second carry and was limited to 41 yards on 17 rushes. The Bills were just 4-for-13 on third down, which led to a lopsided time of possession (37:43) in favor of the Patriots, and it showed as the defense wore down in the fourth quarter.

LINE: Bills moved from as high as +3 to +1. Total moved from 44.5 to 43.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Panthers (+1.5) - Bills (+5.5) + home (-3.0) = Bills +1
WEATHER: Temps in high 60s. Partly cloudy skies. Winds WSW 9 mph.

TRENDS:

* Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
* Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
* Bills are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 2.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-5.5, 42)

Minnesota regularly sees eight-man defensive fronts with Peterson in the backfield, but quarterback Christian Ponder has yet to prove that he can take advantage of the single coverage on the outside. Ponder threw three interceptions and lost a fumble in a 34-24 Week 1 loss at Detroit and is facing a Chicago defensive backfield that forced three turnovers last week and led the NFL in that category a year ago.

The most encouraging thing about Chicago’s 24-21 victory over the Bengals may have been the spot on Cutlers stat line that read: sacks-0. Cutler was sacked 148 times in the last four seasons but the Bears rebuilt the offensive line with four new faces for 2013. Trestman, who specializes in a short passing game, is also trying to get the ball out of Cutler’s hands quickly and to receivers like Brandon Marshall, who caught eight passes for 104 yards and a score against the Bengals.

LINE: Chicago opened -5 and moved as high as -6. Total moved from 40.5 to 42.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Vikings (+2.5) + Bears (-2.0) + home (-3.0) = Bears -7.5
WEATHER: Temps in mid 60s. 64 percent chance of thundershowers. Winds SSW 6 mph.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 meetings.
* Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Chicago.
* Vikings are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings.

[TheGame]

Total Talk - Week 2
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Even though the first week of the NFL season watched every nationally televised game go ‘over’ the number, the total results from the opening weekend was a stalemate at 8-8. Bettors saw the ‘under’ go an eye-opening 8-1 in the early games on Sunday and the majority of the results were clear-cut. This past Thursday the Patriots beat the Jets 13-10 and most sportsbooks were probably pleased to see the primetime ‘over’ run come to an end.

What should total bettors expect going forward? I hate to use a line from women and compare it to sports betting but it’s fair to say that 40 is the new 30, especially when looking at totals. In the opening weekend, 15 of the 16 games had totals listed at 40 or more points and three were in the fifties. In Week 2, the same scenario is playing out and you could see all games be listed above 40 with the Jacksonville-Oakland matchup hovering around 39 points.

Three more games are listed above 50 points this week and that doesn’t necessarily mean shootouts. In Week 1, the ‘under’ went 2-1 with the high numbers, the lone winner being the Monday Night matchup between Philadelphia and Washington. The Eagles are catching a lot of buzz right now for their pace but at the end of the day, they only put up 31 points from their offense. This week, Philadelphia welcomes San Diego and you can see below that the early money has already poured in on the ‘over.’

Line Moves

Here are all of the line moves of 1½ points or more at CRIS as of Saturday.

San Diego at Philadelphia – Line opened 51½ and jumped to 54
Cleveland at Baltimore – Line opened 42 and jumped to 43½
Tennessee at Houston – Line opened 41 and jumped to 42½
Washington at Green Bay – Line opened 48 and jumped to 50
Minnesota at Chicago – Line opened 40 and jumped to 41½
Detroit at Arizona – Line opened 46 and jumped to 48½
Jacksonville at Oakland – Line opened 41 and dropped to 39½
Denver at N.Y. Giants – Line opened 52½ and jumped to 55

Divisional Matchups

The ‘over’ went 4-2 in divisional games last week. Including Thursday’s game between the Jets and Patriots, Week 2 features six more divisional battles.

Cleveland at Baltimore
The ‘under’ is 5-0 in the last five meetings. Baltimore has won 11 straight in this series and during this domination, Cleveland has been held to 17 points or less 10 times.

Tennessee at Houston
The ‘over’ is 3-1 the past two seasons. During this span, the Texans have averaged 31.3 points per game.

Minnesota at Chicago
The ‘under’ is on a 3-0 run in this series. However, Chicago has posted 28, 39, 27 and 36 points in its last four encounters at home against the Vikings.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay
Seven of the last eight meetings between this pair have seen the ‘under’ cash. Last season, New Orleans put up 41 and 35 against Tampa Bay. The total has ranged between 49 and 54 points in the last four meetings but this week’s number is hovering around 47, which could tell you that the oddsmakers are starting to notice the aforementioned trend.

San Francisco at Seattle (See Below)

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (See Below)

Under the Lights

San Francisco at Seattle
The number on this game is bouncing around 44, which is the highest total this matchup has seen since 2003 when Jeff Garcia and Matt Hasselbeck were going head-to-head for the 49ers and Seahawks respectively. Fast forward 10 years and quarterbacks Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson will attempt to light up the scoreboard. The past three years, the Seahawks and 49ers have seen the total go 1-1 in their regular season matchups. In Jim Harbaugh’s first year in San Francisco, the team was more known for its defense but that changed last year and so did the total results. The 49ers watched the ‘over’ go 9-1 in their final 10 games of the 2012-13 regular season and playoffs. Also, last week’s 34-28 home win against Green Bay in Week 1 was an easy ‘over’ ticket. Seattle has a great defensive unit but it will be missing key parts to that group on Sunday night.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
As of Saturday, this total was hovering between 40 and 41 points, which is the second lowest number on the board. The ‘under’ has gone 3-0 in the last three meetings and after watching Pittsburgh’s offense (194 yards, 7 points) struggle at home in Week 1, not many bettors are expecting an explosion on Monday against a sound Cincinnati defense. The Bengals watched the ‘under’ go 6-2 at home last season and even though Cincinnati allowed 24 points to Chicago last week, its defense played very well up until the end of the game.

Fearless Predictions

We turned a profit in this section last season and hope to churn out more winning tickets in 2013. If you’re new to TT, all wagers are based on one-unit and we play a nine-point teaser at even money (+100). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Denver-N.Y. Giants 54

Best Under: Tennessee-Houston 43

Best Team Total: Over N.Y. Giants 26

Three-Team Total Teaser:
Over Denver-N.Y. Giants 45
Under Jacksonville-Oakland 38½
Under Pittsburgh-Cincinnati 50

[TheGame]

Week 2 Sharp Moves
By Mike Rose
VegasInsider.com

All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com's databases as of Thursday afternoon.

Washington/Green Bay Under 49.5 - The Redskins and Packers both had lousy defensive weeks in Week 1, but that has really just pushed the number in the game between these two far too high.

Opening Line: 49
Current Line: 49.5
Public Betting Percentage: 97% on the over

St. Louis +6.5 - The Rams are the 1-0 team in this bunch against the Falcons, but these two teams might be a lot more similar than the oddsmakers are letting on to. Someone clearly knows something in this game. Don't believe me? Check out the trends and the public betting percentages.

Opening Line: St. Louis +7.5
Current Line: St. Louis +6.5
Public Betting Percentage: 76% on Atlanta

Miami +2.5 - The Colts looked horrid last week against the Raiders but still found a way to win the game. Miami wasn't exactly as awesome as could be against a bad Cleveland team, but wins on the road are hard to come by in this league, and it was a good result for the Fins. They could pull off the upset again this week, too.

Opening Line: Miami +3
Current Line: Miami +2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 75% on Indianapolis

Tampa Bay +3.5 - Home underdogs, particularly within this range tend to do really well in NFL betting action, and this could be no exception. It's a divisional game, and the Bucs and Saints know all about each other and what they are going to try to do in this one. There's no doubt that New Orleans is more talented, but is it by enough to win by more than a field goal on the road?

Opening Line: Tampa Bay +3.5

Current Line: Tampa Bay +3.5
Public Betting Percentage: 89% on New Orleans

New Orleans/Tampa Bay Under 47 - Same game. Over bettors are clearly looking at the fact that QB Drew Brees and company historically put up 30+ points in games like this one and perhaps not the fact that QB Josh Freeman still stinks. Oh yes, and New Orleans only put up 23 points last week against a suspect Atlanta defense at home.

Opening Line: 47
Current Line: 47
Public Betting Percentages: 93% on the over

Arizona +1.5 - The line move here is at least apparent, but anyone in Vegas will tell you that the move from pk to 1.5 isn't all that large. Arizona was a six-point dog last year when these two teams played, but the Lions got destroyed.

Opening Line: Pick 'Em
Current Line: Arizona +1.5
Public Betting Percentages: 80% on Detroit

[TheGame]

NFL Gambling Preview: Denver Broncos at New York Giants
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com

Denver at New York Giants
Sunday, 1:25 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener: Denver -6 O/U 52.5
CRIS Current: Denver -4 O/U 54.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Denver -3
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Over

The betting markets aren’t used to NFL totals in the mid-50’s. And there’s a significant sentiment among sharp bettors that NFL totals this high are one-way-only bets – they’re either taking the Under, or passing on the total. A decade ago, I was one of those bettors who wouldn’t touch anything Over 52 in this league. But in the modern NFL, that’s a flawed strategy, in my opinion.
Look no further than the TV games from last week. We had five national TV games on opening weekend: Broncos – Ravens, 49ers – Packers, Giants – Cowboys, Redskins – Eagles and Chargers – Texans. All five FLEW over the total, by 27, 15, 17, 8 and 15 points respectively – none of them were particularly close. Square bettors cleaned up betting Overs in those contests. Sharp bettors took the Under in every one of those games, and lost every dollar they wagered.

Peyton Manning threw seven touchdown passes in the opener against Baltimore. The Ravens don’t have an elite defense, but it’s certainly not a bottom tier unit. Denver dominated in the trenches offensively – Manning’s jersey was relatively clean for most of the night. And when Baltimore blitzed, the Broncos elite receiving corps was matched up in single coverage, and Manning found them for big gainers all night long.

The Giants secondary is not an elite unit, by any stretch of the imagination. New York’s defensive strength is supposed to be up front, on the defensive line; a team that can theoretically generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks without blitzing.

But that certainly wasn’t the case at Dallas in Week 1. Cowboys QB Tony Romo took only two sacks and was pressured only six times on 51 drop-backs. If Peyton Manning has all day to throw, Denver could approach this total all by themselves, especially now that the Giants have lost yet another key player from their secondary, with Prince Amukamara expected to sit after suffering a concussion last week!

But there’s no question that Eli can throw the deep ball every bit as well as his brother. The G-men had three 100 yard receivers in their opener (Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks and Rueben Randle), and tight end Brandon Myers had seven catches on his own. Despite playing behind a banged up offensive line, Manning had time to find all three receivers for long gainers – this is not a ‘dink and dunk’ offense, by any stretch of the imagination.

Denver’s defense is solid, not spectacular, especially without the suspended Von Miller bringing his pass rush and the injured Champ Bailey locking down opposing receivers in the secondary. The Ravens put together four long scoring drives (all 55+ yards) against the Broncos on opening night.

The Giants had 45 passing plays and only 14 rushes against the Cowboys. Despite playing with a huge lead for most of the second half, the Broncos had a 2:1 pass-to-run ratio themselves; a ratio that speaks volumes about the modern day NFL. It’s a passing league these days, with long gainers in bunches and the clock stopping on every incompletion.

Both previous Manning vs. Manning matchups have gone Over the total. Expect another Over in the latest installment of this rivalry on Sunday afternoon.

[TheGame]

MNF - Steelers at Bengals
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The AFC North takes center-stage to close out Week 2 on Monday night in southern Ohio. The 0-1 Bengals play their home opener against the rival Steelers, as Pittsburgh is also looking for its first victory of the season. Both teams are fresh off losses, but each defeat came in a different fashion.

Cincinnati traveled to Chicago and built a 14-7 lead after two touchdown connections between Andy Dalton and A.J. Green. Following a 58-yard field goal by Robbie Gould to pull the Bears within 14-10 at halftime, the Bengals built a 21-10 advantage thanks to a BenJarvus Green-Ellis touchdown run in the third quarter. That score would be the final one for the Bengals, as the Bears finished off the game with consecutive touchdowns from Matt Forte and Brandon Marshall to beat the Bengals, 24-21. Cincinnati pushed as three-point road underdogs, while the game barely went 'over' the total of 41 ½.

The Steelers received the good fortune of a safety on the opening kickoff after Tennessee's Darius Reynaud picked up the ball off a bounce at the one-yard line then kneeled in the end zone. Pittsburgh's next score wouldn't come until the final 90 seconds of the game on a Jerricho Cotchery. In between, the safety and the touchdown, the Titans scored 16 points, including three field goals from Rob Bironas. Pittsburgh failed to cash as six-point home favorites, as the contest finished 'under' the total of 42.

The road team won each meeting last season, including a 24-17 victory by the Steelers at Paul Brown Stadium. Pittsburgh has won three straight road matchups in this series, while overcoming a 14-3 deficit last October by outscoring Cincinnati, 21-3 in the final 33 minutes of the game. Jonathan Dwyer rushed for 122 yards, while the Steelers' offense outgained the Bengals, 431-185 to cover as one-point road favorites.

Cincinnati picked up revenge in the second meeting at Heinz Field, as Josh Brown's 43-yard field goal in the final seconds lifted the Bengals past the Steelers, 13-10. The Bengals' offense failed to reach the end zone as Leon Hall took back an interception for a touchdown two minutes into the game. Marvin Lewis' team cashed as three-point underdogs, while hitting the 'under' in the fourth straight matchup at Heinz.

In the last two seasons, the Bengals have struggled against division foes, posting a 5-7 SU and 3-7-2 ATS mark. Since 2006, Cincinnati owns a dreadful 2-10-2 ATS as a favorite of at least six points, with one of those victories coming last season over Oakland, 34-10 as 7½-point 'chalk.'

The Steelers cashed in two of three opportunities as a road underdog last season, including outright victories against the Giants and Ravens. Since the start of 2010, Mike Tomlin's club has won seven of the last nine away contests within the AFC North, with all three wins over the Bengals coming by 6, 7, and 7 points.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Antony Dinero analyzes the Steelers' woes on offense, "Pittsburgh's biggest issue since offensive coordinator Todd Haley arrived has been the perception that an over-reliance on the short passing game has dulled the teeth of Roethlisberger and a once-potent attack. With the running game derailed by injuries and rhythm, it will be interesting to see whether Haley turns Big Ben loose against a secondary that can be beat for big plays. Mike Wallace is in Miami, so a complement for Antonio Brown must be found. Can rookie Markus Wheaton get up to speed this early? If the answer is no, the Steelers may not break double-digits for the second week in a row."

Since 2006, the Bengals own a 1-4 SU/ATS record on Monday night football, while hosting their first Monday night contest since 2010, a 27-21 defeat to the Steelers. In Tomlin's tenure, the Steelers have won six of seven appearances on Monday night, including outright road underdog victories at Cincinnati ('10), Denver ('07), and Washington ('06).

Pittsburgh cashed the 'over' in six of eight road contests last season, while allowing at least 20 points in seven away games. The Bengals went the opposite direction at home, finishing 'under' the total in six of eight games at Paul Brown Stadium, including two of three 'unders' against division foes.

Cincinnati is listed as 6½-point home favorites, while the total is set at 41. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST from Paul Brown Stadium and will be televised nationally on ESPN.

[TheGame]

Steelers at Benglas: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 41)

The Pittsburgh Steelers will try to rebound from one of their more feeble offensive performances in recent memory when they visit the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday night in a matchup of two teams expected to vie for the AFC North crown. The Steelers are coming off a disastrous Week 1 loss to Tennessee in which they managed only 195 total yards and lost three players to season-ending injuries. The Bengals blew an 11-point, second-half lead in a 24-21 opening loss to Chicago.

Pittsburgh managed only 32 yards rushing and lost three-time Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey for the season due to torn knee ligaments, prompting head coach Mike Tomlin to understate: "We've got a lot of work to do." The first step comes against a rugged Cincinnati defense that includes former Steelers linebacker James Harrison, the 2008 NFL Defensive Player of the Year who signed with the Bengals in the offseason. The Steelers have history on the side, having won 10 of their last 11 in Cincinnati.

LINE: The Bengals opened as a 6.5-point favorites at most shops. The total opened at 40.5 and has moved to 41.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field at 7 mph.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (0-1): Ben Roethlisberger became the 35th quarterback to surpass the 30,000-yard mark for his career but that was about the only offensive highlight for Pittsburgh, which did not get into the end zone until there were 83 seconds to play. The running game was non-existent, managing a paltry 32 yards, and there seems no easy solution in sight after news that rookie Le'Veon Bell will miss at least another month with a foot injury suffered in the preseason. The defense played well, holding Tennessee to 229 total yards, but Roethlisberger was sacked five times and Isaac Redman lost two fumbles to stall the offense.

ABOUT THE BENGALS (0-1): Third-year wide receiver A.J. Green was on his way to a career game and Cincinnati was having its way with Chicago after putting together three touchdown drives of at least 80 yards to take a 21-10 midway through the third quarter versus Chicago. Green finished with nine catches for 162 yards and two scores and Andy Dalton threw for 282 yards but was picked off twice. The running game did nothing, with BenJarvus Green-Ellis managing only 25 yards on 14 carries, while a defense that was among the league leaders with 51 sacks last season failed to register one and allowed the Bears to possess the ball for the final 6:38.

TRENDS:

* The Steelers are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings in Cincinnati.
* Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Under is 8-0 in Steelers last eight games in Week 2.
* Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five Monday games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Steelers, who haven't started 0-2 since 2002, are 7-1 on Monday Night Football under Tomlin.

2. Dalton has nine touchdowns and one interception in his last four home games.

3. Pittsburgh re-signed RB Jonathan Dwyer, who ran for a career-high 122 yards in a 24-17 win at Cincinnati last season.