NFL REV this season

[PLAYER]

THIS season DIV REV worth NUTHIN as team that LOST previous game THIS season just 1-9 SU / 2-8 ATS in rematch,,,if REV team ON the road 0-4 and lose BY margins...azzumim' U can work that ole MTI site at gimmiethedog.com, the sdql izzzz: season=2021 and P:season=season and P:L and division=o:division,,,,,,bet on teams this week: TEN CAR PACK AZ,,,all H teams,,,BAL also fits BUT izzzzz ROAD team...

[Michelangelo]

Where ya been PLAYER?

[jumperjack]

This is the kind of short term trend that is almost sure to flip on you. I don't recommend using it. There will be tons of re-matches in the coming weeks and just as many will end up being splits as sweeps.

[Riderx]

Player,

Great to see you. Thanks for posting. I believe you have some winners in those teams. Will get to work on those 5...

[Riderx]

Of note: That Rams/Cards game is on MNF & a really short line...

On that first game...Titans have to be chomping at the bit after 2 straight losses, main reason being half their damn team was out due to injuries... Their still banged up but rested & pissed-off. They were embarrassed by Houston in the pouring rain & then rocked by New England.

Biggest reason: Turnovers. They had 5 vs the Texans & 4 vs the Patriots, all the while their D' had 0 takeaways in both. 9 turnovers vs 0 takeaways. Vrabel will have that D' fired up vs a Jags team that shit the bed at the Rams...

In the history of the d'b, division road dogs off a s/u loss by more than -27pts., now vs a team off a bye:

http://gimmethedog.com/NFL?q=AD%20an...%20and%20p%3AA

0-3 ats
&
2-1 o/u

...a closer look shows takeaways are a key & the home team (Titans) at least 6pts in every quarter (12), at least 7pts in 11 out of 12 & the only Under was by -1pt @ 50...
Titans -9'

[BT]

Great to see you posting, Player!!

[Thomas]

This is the kind of short term trend that is almost sure to flip on you. I don't recommend using it. There will be tons of re-matches in the coming weeks and just as many will end up being splits as sweeps.

Jack not sure you understand what's going on here with PLAYERS queries. I think from my limited interaction with you that you prefer, like many, a bigger sample size. As you know a sample size of say 500 with a 56% winning % is a money making proposition but it's populated by streaks and my thinking is unless you played all 500 pics the chance of you hitting a winning or losing streak are about 50-50 and if you get in on a losing streak you'll lose your shirt. In gambling the law of large numbers applies to casino games with hundreds of thousands samples which is why casinos always win. I don't believe it applies to sport gambling with samples of 500 a 1000 whatever and I doubt your expectation of winning your next bet is 56 % in that 500 game sample above and streaks win or lose will be the determining factor.

I'm getting away from what I wanted to say when I started this, lol, but what Shaun has offered is an in season streak that's 'hot' right now. As many of the guys who came over from talksport know we've made a lot of money from his streak queries and as you said this situation will flip on you and historic queries support your thoughts and when it ends we stop playing it and look for the next streak. Anyone that has followed PLAYER over the years understand that and play accordingly. I respect your thoughts on large samples and I'm not arguing, myself and others have a different perspective. As data miners the streaks are the golden goose and finding them is part of the secret...

[jumperjack]

All I know is you can look at past results from any past year and see that the likelyhood of this continuing to be profitable is slim to none. No previous year in the recent past has seen more than a 6 game variance from .500. The divisional rematches have just begun, there will be many more. I actually used his premise to find what I think is a very strong play on a team seeking divisional revenge this weekend.

Past year's results of divisional revengers
2020 29-12-1 ATS
2019 21-26-1 ATS
2018 24-22-1 ATS
2017 23-24-2 ATS
2016 23-24 ATS
2015 29-19-1 ATS
2014 28-21 ATS

More likely to finish above .500 than 6 games below .500 where it is now.

[Thomas]

I alluded to the viability in my post and like I said it's a losing proposition through history, my point although long winded was we play the streaks that's what I was trying to say. I went through some of those years before my original post and just using 2020 for an example went 29-21 (not 21-12) but had a 9 game winning streak so if you picked up on that after 4 wins you would have won 5 games before a loss so 5-1 on the streak for a nice profit. I'm just pointing out the reasoning of the small sample and streak methods that we've as a group have found profitable over many years

[Riderx]

I actually used his premise to find what I think is a very strong play on a team seeking divisional revenge this weekend.

I'm gonna' go ahead & guess:

http://gimmethedog.com/NFL?q=P%3Asea...nd%20week%3C17

0-4 s/u & ats

play against the Cards-...play on the Rams+ & Rams m/l

[Riderx]

My second guess:

http://gimmethedog.com/NFL?q=P%3Asea...d%20line%3C5.5

3-0 s/u & ats

play on Falcons+ & Falcons m/l...play against Panthers-

[jumperjack]

Mine chooses the Rams as a play. Single digit AD with revenge from a HFL in the 1st meeting. Total higher than 43 and they swept them the previous season. 12 straight winners and 17-3 going back a little further than that. Query is also 4-16 O/U.

https://sdql-webapp.web.app/NFL?q=P%...d%20total%3E43

[Riderx]

jumperjack,

Thanks for posting the play.

[Riderx]

Missing one: Raiders @ Chiefs -9.5 & 48

[PLAYER]

YUPP, been a while since i walked around here,,,,i left a game OUT at the TOP of my Post about DIV REV,,,KC is also a play,,,