Cowboys team trend

[Riderx]

Dallas, after week 3, on the road after a home game in which they had more than 100+ penalty yards:

http://gimmethedog.com/NFL?q=week%3E...%3AH%20and%20A

0-7 s/u...dog or fav
&
0-7 ats
&
2-5 o/u

after week 6:

http://gimmethedog.com/NFL?q=week%3E...%3AH%20and%20A

0-5 s/u...dog or fav
&
0-5 ats
&
0-5 o/u

All 5 were in week 11 or more & didn't even score 7pts in any of those games. Can anyone honestly say before they saw this that they wouldn't score at least 10pts, let alone 7pts?

I can't...that's a shock.

Contrarians will like that 68% are on Dal -4' & 75% of $$$ are on Dal -4'. 78% of $$$ on the Over.

https://www.scoresandodds.com/nfl/consensus-picks

[BT]

Thanks, Rider! Add that the public have basically put NO in the "has been" category. Great spot for a NO play this week. I would expect the line to move up closer to kick off.

[Michelangelo]

Nice work again X. And I agree with BT.

[Thomas]

Yeah nice find John !

[Riderx]

Sh*t...hold on...as we all know, the Cowboys are psychotic (what else is new)...but they may have both WR's Lamb & Cooper back, along with DE D'Marcus Lawrence, even though HC McCarthy & many assistant coaches will be out due to covid, but the coaches don't play the game.

Dallas is 7-4 but 3 of those losses were vs the AFC West, with the only NFC loss in week 1 @ T'Bay.
N'awlins is in worse shape though, they were 5-2 & beat T'Bay at home, but then lost 2 in-a-row by 2pts each, then lost 2 more @ Philly, giving up 40 & last week got blasted by Buffalo. Both their offense & defense have gone south & it looks like they'll be w/o 2 DE's & 2 OT's.

And I'm really tired of backing banged-up teams this late in the season, even though the Saints hold a massive ATS lead in this series.

I just realized all 5 of those above games were on Sundays...this game is on Thursday night...there is a difference.

Here is some serious stuff for Cowboys backers...

Non-div home dogs before week 16 off a home dog loss & a loss before that, team has more than 4 wins & more than 4 losses:

http://gimmethedog.com/NFL?q=HD%20an...nd%20week%3C16

0-3 s/u & ats...against NOrl+...on Dallas-

Road conf favs of more than -1 off an overtime game in which both they & their opp had 0 turnovers:

http://gimmethedog.com/NFL?q=ACF%20a...%20po%3ATO%3D0

3-0 s/u & ats...on Dallas-...against NOrl+

& maybe the clincher...

NFC home dogs off a home dog loss vs opp off a home fav loss had 0 turnovers:

http://gimmethedog.com/NFL?q=HD%20an...%20op%3ATO%3D0

0-2 s/u & ats
&
2-0 o/u

scoring 20+ each but allowing 40+ each

against NOrl+...on Dallas-

Over

[Thomas]

It's just never really simple Rider that's for sure

[Riderx]

It's just never really simple Rider that's for sure

That's for damn sure...LOL...

[Riderx]

F*ck it...I'm done:

Saints +4'
Saints m/l
Under 47'

[BT]

Line up to 6. Can we get the extra point too?

[Thomas]

my two books are at -6 pinny and my dog book SIA is at -7 now, nice number if you like the saints

[Riderx]

Thomas,

Stickin' to my guns on Saints+ & Under. All I've heard today from everywhere is a Dallas blowout. If it happens, so be it...but the Cowboys are not a SB team, they proved that vs the Chiefs a few weeks back.

And in the entire d'b since '89, there is only one game of a road fav vs a non-div opp after week 8 in which they are off a s/u loss scored more than 28pts & had over 100+ penalty yards:

http://gimmethedog.com/NFL?q=p%3Apen...8%20and%20NDIV

Guess who?

[jumperjack]

Not disagreeing with the play on New Orleans, but the relevance of an 0-7 team trend that has 3 of the games that fit the query from before the year 2000 escapes me.

[Riderx]

jumperjack,

You are correct, sir...it's only one team trend out of billions. I've looked at this game in so many different ways (a lot more than whats posted), trying to find a few critical angles. And like I said, the Cowboys may win in a blowout. But this is the NFL and as we see every week, anything can happen.

Here is my hole card...

Conf road favs on TNF in Dec., team has avg'd less than 1.5 takeaways/game last 4 games:

http://gimmethedog.com/NFL?q=month%3...20N%3D4)%3C1.5

3-4 s/u
&
1-6 ats

All since 2009. A closer look shows the biggest s/u win was by 4pts. Five of the seven road favs were lined at -3 each. The two favs of more than -3 lost s/u.

The Cowboys have been involved in the past two...in '16 & '19...a 2pt win & a 7pt loss.

[Chamblin]

[turbo]