Tweet
just some info first.... took a tiiny 0.5u on Mia -1.5 with my boys Tua and Waddle
this week all of the top 5 were chosen at least 550 times and these selections are 2-9 ATS. No team had even been chosen 700x this year but Cleveland was taken by 841 players. Oppose or just don't play the following:
CLE , GB 690, LAC 643, DAL 628, KC 584
systems NFL
p:H and pp:H and ppp:H and p:ats margin>0 and division!=o:division and line<-3 (cowboys in a 3-23 ATS spot off 3 home games, covering the last, fav of 3.5+ and not playing a div game)
A and p:A and p:day=Thursday and date>20171002 4-22 o/u (rams under, away after Thu away)
A and line<-3 and team=Rams and date>20181010 1-10 o/u (rams under, rams road 3.5+ fav)
betlabs NFL:
UNDER 10-25 mph winds, low humidity, line hasn't moved more than 1.5 points and diff b/w the total and the spread is b/w 28.5-43 (68-139 ou +130% = IND/HOU under 43.5) 0-2 ou ytd
PLAY ON home dog 2.5-7 on ML in games 2-6 vs opponent off win (56-53 +138% = on CAR) 1-3 ytd
- same as above but 2.5-7.5 vs the spread (69-40 +123% = on CAR) 2-2 ytd
PLAY ON NO/PIT/CAR/WA if dog and big diff b/w money % and ticket % (24-5 +163% = on CAR) 1-1 ytd
OPPOSE favs in week 2-8 that didn't make playoffs LY but are >.500 and were average at covering LY (115-50 +136% = on NE, on DET)
PLAY ON away dog <7 points on losing streak b/w G2-7 (205-143 +115% = on LV, on SEA) 13-5 ytd
OPPOSE MNF home dogs of 5-8 points (19-8 +138% = on BUF)
DVOA differentials:
BUF D 1 vs TEN O 21
BUF O 12 vs TEN D 27
CIN D 7 vs DET O 25
DAL D 6 vs NE O 24
KC O 1 vs WAS D 28
WAS O 13 vs KC D 32
LAC O 7 vs BAL D 22
LAR O 3 vs NYG D 26
DEN D 10 vs LVR O 27
CAR D 2 vs MIN O 17
MIN D 8 vs CAR O 26
NFL weather games:
CLE = sustained 30 mph winds (!)
WAS, NYG, BAL= 10-15 mph winds
bets so far:
Miami -1.5 = posted before game. half unit to root on Tua and Waddle
Rams/Giants u49.5 = since Nov 2016 dogs that just allowed >41 points in a divisional game are 13-34 ou the following week. The Rams have completely shut down teams as an away favorite. The Giants have NFL's 31st ranked red zone offense when completely healthy so without Barkley and maybe Jones they'll be kicking FG when they move the ball.
Colts/Texans u43.5 = I don't get this Mills dude...goes from 0 TD & 4 INT to 3 TD & 0 INT. Probably somewhere in the middle today like 1 TD & 2 INT. I like the betlabs system posting 67% unders in >200 plays so riding it and hoping Mills doesn't toss those INT's deep in his own zone
Carolina +3 -125 = buying up from +2.5 -105 as I'm expecting a close, low scoring game. Bad news this morning with Cook in, McCaff out but CAR #2 DVOA defense in NFL and #2 at home against a very average offense. Love CAR +8.5 in teasers but decided to buy up with a single.
this week all of the top 5 were chosen at least 550 times and these selections are 2-9 ATS. No team had even been chosen 700x this year but Cleveland was taken by 841 players. Oppose or just don't play the following:
CLE , GB 690, LAC 643, DAL 628, KC 584
systems NFL
p:H and pp:H and ppp:H and p:ats margin>0 and division!=o:division and line<-3 (cowboys in a 3-23 ATS spot off 3 home games, covering the last, fav of 3.5+ and not playing a div game)
A and p:A and p:day=Thursday and date>20171002 4-22 o/u (rams under, away after Thu away)
A and line<-3 and team=Rams and date>20181010 1-10 o/u (rams under, rams road 3.5+ fav)
betlabs NFL:
UNDER 10-25 mph winds, low humidity, line hasn't moved more than 1.5 points and diff b/w the total and the spread is b/w 28.5-43 (68-139 ou +130% = IND/HOU under 43.5) 0-2 ou ytd
PLAY ON home dog 2.5-7 on ML in games 2-6 vs opponent off win (56-53 +138% = on CAR) 1-3 ytd
- same as above but 2.5-7.5 vs the spread (69-40 +123% = on CAR) 2-2 ytd
PLAY ON NO/PIT/CAR/WA if dog and big diff b/w money % and ticket % (24-5 +163% = on CAR) 1-1 ytd
OPPOSE favs in week 2-8 that didn't make playoffs LY but are >.500 and were average at covering LY (115-50 +136% = on NE, on DET)
PLAY ON away dog <7 points on losing streak b/w G2-7 (205-143 +115% = on LV, on SEA) 13-5 ytd
OPPOSE MNF home dogs of 5-8 points (19-8 +138% = on BUF)
DVOA differentials:
BUF D 1 vs TEN O 21
BUF O 12 vs TEN D 27
CIN D 7 vs DET O 25
DAL D 6 vs NE O 24
KC O 1 vs WAS D 28
WAS O 13 vs KC D 32
LAC O 7 vs BAL D 22
LAR O 3 vs NYG D 26
DEN D 10 vs LVR O 27
CAR D 2 vs MIN O 17
MIN D 8 vs CAR O 26
NFL weather games:
CLE = sustained 30 mph winds (!)
WAS, NYG, BAL= 10-15 mph winds
bets so far:
Miami -1.5 = posted before game. half unit to root on Tua and Waddle
Rams/Giants u49.5 = since Nov 2016 dogs that just allowed >41 points in a divisional game are 13-34 ou the following week. The Rams have completely shut down teams as an away favorite. The Giants have NFL's 31st ranked red zone offense when completely healthy so without Barkley and maybe Jones they'll be kicking FG when they move the ball.
Colts/Texans u43.5 = I don't get this Mills dude...goes from 0 TD & 4 INT to 3 TD & 0 INT. Probably somewhere in the middle today like 1 TD & 2 INT. I like the betlabs system posting 67% unders in >200 plays so riding it and hoping Mills doesn't toss those INT's deep in his own zone
Carolina +3 -125 = buying up from +2.5 -105 as I'm expecting a close, low scoring game. Bad news this morning with Cook in, McCaff out but CAR #2 DVOA defense in NFL and #2 at home against a very average offense. Love CAR +8.5 in teasers but decided to buy up with a single.
Comment