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CAR/DAL u51.5 & Indy +2.5

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  • #1

    CAR/DAL u51.5 & Indy +2.5

    It has been a very good spot to play under on away team with the extra rest after playing away the previous Thursday. 1-15 o/u with avg under by more than 9ppg. Carolina fits this week
    16 8 8 0 1.5 50.0 2.3 1 15 0 -9.3 6.3 46.2 6 8 2 -0.75 42.86
    another good spot is to play against teams like Miami that blew a 11+ point lead and are now favored by no more than 3 points. These favs have won just 5 of 18 games covering twice. Obviously best to get a +3 but right now you can get +2.5 +100
    18 2 16 0 -6.1
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Good stuff, Tide.

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    • #3

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      • #4
        SEA/SF over 51.5
        Seattle #2 offense vs San Fran #19 defense
        San Fran #10 offense vs Seattle #24 defense
        = On both sides of the ball in SEA/SF the offenses are just way better than the defenses. Then add in that Seattle's offense is also #2 in the red zone, SF a respectable 11th, and neither RZ defense is in the top 11. Seattle's defense is 27th on first down, 22nd on 2nd down, and 16th on 3rd/4th down which means they are bottom half of NFL on every down. The 49ers defense is 30th on 1st down, 9th on 2nd down, and 8th on 3rd/4th down so they can get gashed on 1st down. Well Seattle's offense is 3rd on 1st down, 1st on 2nd down, and 17th on 3rd/4th downs so they should get big yards on 1st downs all game. 49ers won't have a problem moving the ball as Seattle is 32nd in NFL allowing an avg of 44 yards per drive, slightly worse than the 49ers 40.32 yards per drive (27th). Both teams will move the ball at will so getting 52+ is all about scoring TD instead of FG. Game can easily reach 65. Call it 34-30
        Last edited by rolltide; 10-03-2021, 09:25 AM.

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        • #5
          small sample size but insane margins. teams like Dallas in middle of 3 game home stretch playing a NDIV game with DIV games last week and next week are 0-6 ou going under by 21 ppg when total is >43
          https://s3.sportsdatabase.com/NFL/qu...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

          wins': 0, 'losses': 6, 'margin': -21.25
          20211003 Sunday 4 2021 home Cowboys Panthers 0 0 -4.5 52.0

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          • #6
            Nice work, RT. Thanks for sharing.

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            • #7
              very nice rt
              _______________________________________________
              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

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              • #8
                Nice work.

                And nice beatdown of Ole Miss on Sat.

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                • #9

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