Week 1 Preseason Saturday Pro Picks w/analysis

[dstaples11]

All plays released from Tommy "The Hitman" @ pregame.com

Chi/Mia Over 33
Jets PK
LAC -3
Jax +4 (LINE HAS MOVED SIGNIFICANTLY)

[dstaples11]

Chicago/Mia Over 33

Another set of teams with deep quarterback rotations, as Miami has Tua (who I could see playing some) and Brissett, while Chicago has Dalton/Foles/Fields. This total is also set significantly lower than the average total points scored of previous preseason week 1 games. Matt Nagy coached teams are 8-0-1 going over this total of 33, with the only push coming in the HOF game in 2018. Brian Flores coached teams actually went over 33 in week 1 of 2019, but under in the final three games, but regardless, I believe this total is too low.

[dstaples11]

Jets PK double-dime bet

Analysis:

Even though the Giants are technically the home team, we have our first year HC in the home opener of the preseason trend working in our favor.

Further working in our favor is the fact that Jets HC Robert Saleh has said that quarterback Zach Wilson and the Jets first teamers will play " at least the entire first quarter". The Giants have the opposite approach to this game, with HC Joe Judge saying that the team will be treating this game like it's the traditional fourth preseason game, which means the Giants will be playing their youˆnger guys instead of starters

[dstaples11]

LAC -3 double-dime bet
The system having two teams from LA messed me up. The pick is the LA CHARGERS -3. I will have this updated ASAP to say LA Chargers in the pick.

Despite being 6-6 SU in the preseason, Rams HC Sean McVay has made it blatantly clear that he does not value the preseason. McVay recently said that QB Matthew Stafford will never take a snap in the preseason as long as he is the head coach of the Rams, and quality backup QB John Wolford will very likely be out as well. That leaves the Rams extremely thin at quarterback, with Bryce Perkins and Devlin Hodges being the teams only two quarterbacks for this game.

This is a neutral site game, and the Chargers have the clearly superior QB depth chart, even if Justin Herbert does not play. We do not know HC Brandon Staley's preseason tendency's yet, but the worst is could possibly be is equal to Sean McVay

[dstaples11]

Jax +4

Surprised to see Jacksonville open as 4 point home dogs. This is just a guess, but I would guess we see more of Trevor Lawrence and the Jags first team than we see of Baker Mayfield and the Browns first team. Case Keenum and Gardner Minshew are about a push as far as backup quarterbacks go, but C.J. Beathard has a slight edge on Kyle Lauletta as far as third stringers go.

[fantcfrank]

My best pre season bet besides the hall of fame game under is the Chargers/Rams game under..you have a 3rd or 4th string qb for the Rams who wont play anybody that means anythin, and the Charger 2nd qb is ok, Daniel.. and the 3rd is Stick..who is going to score????

[dstaples11]

Good one Frank, I agree, Read this morning that McVay plans to sit around 35 guys for tonight (first and second stringers) It appears he just wants to get through this entire preseason as healthy as possible. Reading other various quotes it doesn't appear the Chargers new head coach Staley cares much about preseason either... "Our practices are going to be a lot more like games than these preseason games," Staley said when explaining his reasoning behind keeping Derwin James out of the preseason. "The environments that we create on our practice fields is where the real action is in the preseason for guys like him.

I think I'll tag along with you on this one.

[fantcfrank]

so far so good, 13 - 6...now we need one total for this coming week.....any ideas..