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**TheGame** · 12-18-2013, 01:44 PM

Close Calls - Week 15
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com

NFL games often go down to the wire, especially relative to the spread. Here are close calls from Week 15 of the NFL season, recapping the spread-changing plays from the fourth quarters around the league.

Atlanta Falcons (-5½) 27, Washington Redskins 26 (49½): The underdog Redskins rallied back from an early 14-0 deficit, taking a 20-17 lead by halftime. Atlanta scored the only touchdown of the third quarter to lead 24-20 and then with three minutes to go in the game the Falcons added a field goal to get past the spread 27-20. While Kirk Cousins and the Redskins had seven turnovers in the game, the offense came through with a great final drive, eventually finding the end zone with just 18 seconds left in the game. Mike Shanahan certainly took some heat for the decision to go for two but anyone on the underdog was certainly pleased to end the game. The conversion failed as Atlanta picked up the win and the final touchdown was also enough to push the total just ‘over’.

San Francisco 49ers (-4½) 33, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 (41): This line was as high as -6 before falling over the weekend and the distinction looked like it might be important as a Tampa Bay fourth quarter touchdown cut the lead for the 49ers to just 20-14, right on that early number. That margin stood until just over four minutes to go as San Francisco settled for a short field goal and any hopes of Tampa Bay getting a backdoor cover were quickly extinguished as a fumble on the kickoff led directly to another San Francisco touchdown to put the game away. That score also was the difference for the total in the game as well.

Arizona Cardinals (-3) 37, Tennessee Titans 34 (42½): The Titans took a 17-13 lead in this game late in the third quarter with Tennessee playing as three-point home underdog, though the line slipped to 2½ at some outlets at various parts of the week. Arizona only needed seven plays to answer with a touchdown to put the game right on the spread heading into the fourth quarter. An early fourth quarter attempt to tie the game failed with a missed field goal and Arizona converted a few big third down plays and eventually found the end zone to go up by 10 with less than seven minutes to go. On second down for the Titans on the next possession Ryan Fitzpatrick was intercepted with the pick returned for a touchdown, seemingly putting the game away for Arizona. The Titans would score with about three minutes to go to get back within 10 and after failing to get the onside kick the Titans used its timeouts and got the 3-and-out it needed. Tennessee was down the field quickly and needing two scores they kicked a field goal with less than a minute to go. The Titans incredibly recovered the second onside kick attempt and in just 37 seconds Fitzpatrick led Tennessee into the end zone to tie the game. The Titans hit a 33-yard play on 2nd down getting the ball first in overtime but Fitzpatrick was intercepted on the next play and Arizona was able to connect for the game winning field goal. While eventually 71 points were scored this game was still ‘under’ until a touchdown with less than seven minutes to go in the game.

Chicago Bears (+1) 38, Cleveland Browns 31 (44): With two defensive touchdowns the Browns led 24-17 entering the fourth quarter but the Bears scored three touchdowns in less than nine minutes to pull away from the Browns. Cleveland added a touchdown within the final minute to get back within seven points but the Bears held on to take control of the NFC North. Twenty eight fourth quarter points also pushed the game ‘over’ despite a 3-0 first quarter.

Buffalo Bills (-4) 27, Jacksonville Jaguars 20 (43½): Sharp action late in the week pushed the Bills from a -2 favorite all the way to -4 and despite a 10-point halftime lead the Bills and Jaguars were tied early in the fourth quarter at 20-20. Buffalo would answer as they took a 27-20 lead with less than 10 minutes to go in the game after an 80-yard scoring drive. Jacksonville appeared ready to answer as the Jaguars eventually wound up sitting on the Buffalo 1-yard line with 1st and goal with less than four minutes to go in the game. On 1st down the Bills lost four yards and on 3rd down Chad Henne was intercepted. Jacksonville would get one more chance but a sack forced the Jaguars into 4th and long and they failed to convert deep in their own territory.

Miami Dolphins (-2½) 24, New England Patriots 20 (46½): This line flipped as the Patriots were favored early in the week before Miami closed as a slight favorite. New England was up 10-0 early as they looked to lock up the AFC East but early in the fourth quarter Miami took a 17-10 lead. New England scored the next 10 points to leave Miami down by three and Ryan Tannehill delivered the signature drive of his young career. The Dolphins converted on a 4th and 5 and eventually found the end zone to lead 24-20 with just over a minute to go. Tom Brady has had plenty of great late game heroics and he put the Patriots inside the Miami 20 but with four attempts at the end zone and no timeouts New England had three incomplete passes and on 4th down Brady was intercepted. Miami held on for the win and those on the ‘under’ also held on with the late stop as well.

Carolina Panthers (-10) 30, New York Jets 20 (40½): The Panthers controlled this game throughout but they failed to pull away, leading by just three heading into the fourth quarter. Early in the fourth the Panthers went back up by 10 with a short rushing touchdown and a few minutes later a 41-yard interception return for a touchdown put the game away. The Jets would save a push for many however with a late touchdown to trim the margin back to 10, where the line closed after being as high as 11½ early in the week. The total also saw another late win for the ‘over’ despite just 29 points through three quarters.

Kansas City Chiefs (-6) 56, Oakland Raiders 31 (44½): The Chiefs won this game by 25 points but late in the third quarter the Raiders were within four after scoring three consecutive touchdowns. The hopes for an underdog cover were short lived however as Jamaal Charles had a 71-yard touchdown just over a minute later and the Chiefs added two more touchdowns to close out the game.

Green Bay Packers (+4) 37, Dallas Cowboys 36 (49½): The season for the Packers seemed to be reaching its end, trailing 26-3 at halftime. Green Bay continued to compete with two touchdowns in the third quarter to offset a Dallas field goal but the Cowboys still led by 12 heading into the fourth quarter. Green Bay scored just four plays into the fourth quarter to get within five but any comebacks hopes were muted as Dallas answered to go back up by 12 with less than eight minutes to go. Led by Matt Flynn the Packers were back in the end zone and back within five with just four minutes to go. The Green Bay defense has not done a lot of positive things this season but they picked up a big sack as Dallas continued to throw the ball. The Cowboys picked up a key third down after Green Bay used its first timeout however. On 2nd and 6 with less than three minutes to go in the game Tony Romo added another late game play to his legacy with an interception. Green Bay only needed seven plays to find the end zone to take the lead and the Packers improbably led 37-36 after a failed two-point conversion attempt. Dallas still had plenty of time on the clock getting the ball back with 1:31 remaining and on second down Romo was intercepted again. The play was initially ruled an incompletion but on review the play was reversed as Tramon Williams made a great play for the game-sealing interception to keep the Packers in the playoff hunt.

**TheGame** · 12-19-2013, 03:25 PM

2-Minute Handicap
Playbook.com

Miami 5-1 A off SU win vs opp w/rev… 2-10 off SU win vs < .500 div opp… 2-6 A aft Patriots
BUFFALO 5-1 L6 HD's… 0-8 vs div opp w/rev… 1-9 LHG off SUATS win… 1-6 L7 off SU win games 13-16

New Orleans 16-3 off SU non div loss… 1-3 L4 vs div opp w/rev… 3-10 L13 aft Rams
CAROLINA Series: 7-1 vs Saints off SU fav loss… 9-1 off DD ATS loss w/ rev vs div opp … 5-1 L6 aft AFC opp

Dallas 6-1 A off BB SUATS losses… 21-5 A aft allow 35 > pts… 2-7 L9 aft Packers
WASHINGTON Series: 6-1 L7 / 3-0 L3 H… 6-1 off 1 pt SU loss vs div … 1-9 HD's off SU loss vs div opp

Tampa Bay 7-1 vs non div opp aft 49ers… 7-3 dogs > 3 pts aft score 14 < pts …1-6 off DD SU loss w/ rev
ST. LOUIS Series: 3-1 L4… 6-1 L7 favs LHG… 12-2 H off ATS win 14 > pts… 10-3 off SU win 2nd BB non div

Chicago 0-11 RD’s 7 < pts w/ OU line 46 > pts… 2-12 LRG vs opp off SUATS loss
PHILADELPHIA Series: 1-4 L5… 6-1 L7 aft Vikings… 0-6 LHG vs non div opp…1-5 L6 off SU fav loss

Cleveland 8-1 vs < .500 AFC E… 6-1 L7 < .500 off SU NFC loss… 7-2 aft allow 35 > vs opp off SU loss
NY JETS 0-6 vs AFC North… 1-5 L6 bef Miami… 7-20 H vs < .500 off NFC

Indianapolis 5-1 L6 off SU win 20 > pts… 11-4 vs .500 opp > Games 13-16… 3-7 L10 LRG's
KANSAS CITY Series: 1-4 L5… 5-1 L6 favs off DD SU win vs 500 > opp… 2-12 off BB SU wins & scored > 30 pts BB

Minnesota 8-0 RD's vs .500 > opp games 13-16… 0-6-1 SU A 2013… 2-13 LRG vs opp off DD SU loss
CINCINNATI Series: 4-1 L5 H… 6-0 H TYear… 1-7 L8 aft Steelers vs < .500 opp… 4-12 off SU div road loss

Denver 8-2 A off div vs opp scored 3 < pts… 1-7 RF's vs non div AFC opp off DD SU loss… 2-9 .500 > vs AFC South
HOUSTON 4-1 aft score 3 < pts vs .500 > opp… 1-7 dogs 3 > pts bef div road… 2-6 vs AFC West

Tennessee 4-0 L4 A off SU H loss… 11-2 w/ rev off non div & allowed 35 > pts… 1-4 L5 vs < .300 opp
JACKSONVILLE Series: 4-1 L5 / 3-1 L 4 H… 4-1 dogs vs opp off BB SU losses w/ rev… 2-6 H vs opp off H

Arizona 3-0 L3 off BB SU wins… 7-1 DD dogs w/ rev vs .500 > opp… 1-5 .500 > LRG
SEATTLE Series: 3-0 L3 H… 9-2 DD favs off non div (3-0 vs div)… 8-2 vs NFC TYear

NY Giants 7-0 aft Seahawks vs .500 > opp… 9-2 RD's off DD SU loss w/ rev vs . 500 > opp… 7-3 LRG's
DETROIT Series: 3-1 L4… 11-4 LHG's w/ rev… 0-5 L5 H off AFC opp… 2-9 .500 > vs non div NFC opp

Oakland 4-1 L5 LRG's… 9-2 div dogs > 3 pts off SU loss… 1-7 L8 bef Broncos vs. opp off SUATS win… 1-5 after Chiefs
SAN DIEGO Series: 7-2 L9 / 4-0 L4 A… 7-3 favs 8 > pts games 13-16… 1-6 H vs div opp off SU loss

Pittsburgh 4-1 bef Browns… 1-5 L6 A vs NFC off SU dog win… 2-6 aft Bengals
GREEN BAY Series: 5-1 off SUATS win… 10-1 HF‘s 13 < pts bef div RG… 7-1 aft Cowboys… 9-2 .500 > bef Bears

New England 10-2 off SU loss w/ rev… 7-1 L8 LRG's… 12-4 aft Dolphins vs non div opp… 20-4 vs .500 > opp off Monday
BALTIMORE Series: 3-1 L4… 8-0 H bef Bengals vs opp off SUATS loss... 15-2 H off NFC vs opp off SU loss… 3-8 L11 aft Monday game

Monday, December 23

Atlanta 11-2 vs non div opp Games 13-16… 0-4 off 1 pt SU win vs non div… 3-12 < .500 A off SU H win
SAN FRANCISCO Series: 7-2-1 L10 H… 11-1-1 H off SU A win… 7-1-2 HF’s 8 > pts vs non div… 0-6 favs bef Cardinals vs opp w/ rev

ABBREVIATIONS LEGEND: For the most part, results are presented in this order: Series, Good Results, Bad Results, Over/Under Totals and Coaches Results. All team and coaches results are Against The Spread and pertain to preseason - unless noted otherwise. (NOTE: * = Check earlier result this season for similar situation and/or line in this game). ATS = Against The Spread, SU = Straight Up, A = Away, H = Home, Dog = Underdog, Fav = Favorite, L = Last, N = Neutral. OVER/UNDER results in Over (first) / Under (second) sequence. Site Numbers (Home One, Home Two; Away One, Away Two) designate 1st or 2nd home or road games of preseason. Dual team or coaches results - Straight-Up and Against The Spread - are separated with a ' / '. Asterisk * = check team previous game for possible similar result.

**TheGame** · 12-19-2013, 03:25 PM

Miami at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
Miami: 8-2 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest
Buffalo: 1-8 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins

New Orleans at Carolina, 1:00 ET
New Orleans: 9-1 UNDER against conference opponents
Carolina: 30-11 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points

Dallas at Washington, 1:00 ET
Dallas: 25-11 ATS after allowing 35 points or more last game
Washington: 2-8 ATS against conference opponents

Tampa Bay at St Louis, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 17-7 OVER off 1 or more straight overs
St Louis: 16-30 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45

Chicago at Philadelphia, 8:30 ET
Chicago: 12-4 OVER after 1 or more consecutive wins
Philadelphia: 0-6 ATS in home games off an upset loss as a favorite

Cleveland at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 6-0 ATS in road games after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7
NY Jets: 2-12 ATS off 1 or more straight overs

Indianapolis at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Indianapolis: 10-2 ATS in December games
Kansas City: 1-9 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less

Minnesota at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 0-7 ATS off an upset win by 14 or more points as a home underdog
Cincinnati: 6-0 ATS in home lined games

Denver at Houston, 1:00 ET
Denver: 16-5 ATS in games played on a grass field
Houston: 2-8 ATS against conference opponents

Tennessee at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 8-2 OVER in games played on a grass field
Jacksonville: 3-11 ATS in home games

Arizona at Seattle, 4:05 ET
Arizona: 10-25 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better
Seattle: 11-3 ATS in home games in games played on turf

NY Giants at Detroit, 4:05 ET
NY Giants: 6-0 ATS against NFC North division opponents
Detroit: 0-7 ATS off a non-conference game

Oakland at San Diego, 4:25 ET
Oakland: 1-8 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored
San Diego: 15-6 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders

Pittsburgh at Green Bay, 4:25 ET
Pittsburgh: 7-3 ATS after the first month of the season
Green Bay: 1-6 ATS in the second half of the season

New England at Baltimore, 4:25 ET
New England: 0-6 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games
Baltimore: 11-2 ATS in home games off an upset win as a road underdog

Mon, Dec. 23

Atlanta at San Francisco, 8:40 ET
Atlanta: 38-59 ATS off a home win
San Francisco: 8-1 ATS in home games off a road win

**TheGame** · 12-19-2013, 03:25 PM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 16
By JASON LOGAN

Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 16:

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+2.5, 43)

Cowboys’ third-down offense vs. Redskins’ third-down defense

The Cowboys shot themselves in the foot – again – with another late-game collapse versus the Packers last weekend. Dallas’ issues are stacked to the roof of AT&T Stadium but perhaps the most glaring problem is its inability to convert on third down. The Cowboys have converted just 35.22 percent of their third downs this season and went a dismal 2-for-9 on third down in the loss to Green Bay. Quick three-and-outs are killing an already weak defense, and the offense hasn’t been able to pick up that slack.

Washington is maybe the only other team in the NFC with more internal issues than the Cowboys at this point. However, the Redskins proved they're going to fight to the finish with a close loss to Atlanta Sunday. The defense isn’t where it was last season but Washington is still doing a good job ushering teams off the field on third down. The Redskins have limited foes to a 34.71 percent success rate on third down and have been even stingier in recent outings, dropping that number to 29.73 percent over the last three games.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 45)

Colts’ rushing defense vs. Chiefs’ RB Jamaal Charles

We’re usually a little more subtle when it comes to our weekly mismatches but after the day Charles had last week, the Chiefs’ multifaceted RB deserves respect. Charles threw a wrench in many fantasy football playoff matchups with his five-touchdown performance versus the Raiders. He caught all eight passes thrown his way for 195 yards and tacked on an additional 20 yards on the ground.

Charles has history with the Colts, racking up 226 yards rushing and a score in last year’s loss to Indianapolis. The Colts defense is among the worst at stopping the run - 128.9 yards against per game – and has been exposed by pass-catching backs all season. Most recently, Bengals RB Giovanni Bernard had a big day with 99 yards on the ground and another 49 through the air versus the Colts in Week 14.

New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-10, 49)

Giants’ short secondary vs. Lions’ towering targets

New York’s secondary is in shambles with key corners and safeties causing traffic jams in the trainer’s room. The Giants’ two somewhat healthy CBs, Prince Amukamara and Trumaine McBride, have a tall task ahead of them Sunday. Amukamara and McBride stand just 6-foot and 5-foot-9 respectively and will try to slow down a Detroit receiving corps that could double as an NBA frontcourt.

Forget about Calvin Johnson and what his freakish 6-foot-5 frame can do. The Lions also boast beanpoles in 6-foot WR Nate Burleson, 6-foot-6 WR Kris Durham, 6-foot-5 TE Brandon Pettigrew and 6-foot-7 TE Joseph Fauria. New York has record only 29 sacks on the season and will give Matt Stafford plenty of time to toss jump balls to his towering targets Sunday afternoon. Add “Megatron” to the mix, who has a total of 191 yards and two TDs in two games versus N.Y., and it makes New York's nickname - The Giants - seem a bit misleading.

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 56)

Bears’ big passing plays vs. Eagles’ bending to big plays

It doesn’t matter who’s under center for Chicago – Jay Cutler or Josh McCown – the Bears’ passing attack is doing big things. Over the past three games, Chicago has averaged 9.2 yards per pass attempt – tops in the NFL during that span. Cutler let it rip for 265 yards and three TDs in his return under center versus Cleveland last weekend, picking up a healthy 11.9 yards per pass completion, including a 45-yard TD strike to Alshon Jeffery.

The Eagles got knocked on their ass in Minnesota last Sunday, allowing Vikings QB Matt Cassel to pass for 382 yards and two touchdowns. The pass defense has been slipping recently, hemorrhaging big gains and dropping to a league-worst 291.6 yards passing allowed per game. Philadelphia’s opponents have averaged 7.7 yards per pass attempts and 13 yards per completion over the last three contests. Poor tackling has led to an average of 146.6 yards allowed after the catch – fourth worst in the NFL.

**TheGame** · 12-20-2013, 05:56 AM

Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

Two weeks. That's all we have left to the regular season. With Week 16 upon us, the playoff picture could be poised to become a little more clear. With that, certain teams across the league will be gung-ho to spoil the playoff aspirations of their division or conference rivals.

We talk to Mike Perry of Sportsbook.com about the biggest line moves heading toward the weekend:

New York Giants at Detroit Lions - Open: -10, Move: -9

The Lions appear as if they don't want any piece of the postseason. They currently reside in third place in the NFC North and have dropped four of the last five games - including an 18-16 loss against the Baltimore Ravens Monday night. Because of the terrible football they've been playing, coupled with the short week, bettors have lined up to jump on the road dog in this matchup.

"Since the Lions played on Monday, the line came out on Tuesday and in less than three hours, we got wiseguy play on the dog, and moved a full-point to 9," Perry says. "Many probably look at this team to be hard pressed to beat anyone by double digits. Eli Manning needs to redeem himself off a five INT game, and the Giants seem to somehow play their best whenever hardly anyone gives them a chance."

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at St. Louis Rams - Open: -4.5, Move: -5.5

Following their surprising victory over the New Orleans Saints in Week 15, bettors have backed the Rams and had odds moving early in the week. The luster has fallen off the Bucs' recent winning ways, however. They put together a three-game winning streak earlier before going loss, win, loss over their last three as they head into Week 16.

"Monday morning got sharp bet on the favorite so moved to -5," Perry tells Covers. "Then on Wednesday afternoon, another sharp play on the Rams caused us to move to the current number of 5.5. Mike Glennon will be in for a tough matchup Sunday, no doubt about that."

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers - Open: -3, Move: -3.5

You couldn't ask for a better matchup Sunday. Both teams are 10-4. Both teams want the NFC South crown. But, perhaps nobody across the entire league has played better football than the Panthers. They've won nine of their last 10 games and have pulled through for the bettor as well going 7-2-1 ATS over those 10 games.

"While this game only moved a half-point, it did move off of 3, the most important number when it comes to NFL gambling," said Perry. "This wiseguy play took place on Monday morning. Huge revenge game for Carolina, who are looking to atone for the embarrassing 31-13 loss to New Orleans on Sunday Night Football. This game is much more than revenge for the Panthers, as a victory will give them the inside track to winning the NFC South."

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles - Open: -4, Move: -3

McCown or Cutler under center, it doesn't really matter. The Bears sport a deadly passing attack that features two of the best targets in the league in Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall. The fact that their lethal aerial assault gets to go up against the Eagles atrocious secondary had sharps all over the road dog after books opened this matchup.

"Sunday night got sharp bet on the Bears, so moved to 3.5 and then another sharp play came on Chicago, so moved to present number of 3," Perry stated. "Philadelphia made Matt Cassel look like Fran Tarkenton last Sunday, as he tossed up 382 passing yards and recorded a rushing TD to boot. Just imagine what Chicago's high powered offense of Forte, Marshall and Jeffery could do to them."

**TheGame** · 12-20-2013, 05:56 AM

NFL line watch: Back Jets now versus terrible Browns
By ART ARONSON

Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Cleveland Browns (+2) at New York Jets

Does anyone anywhere believe that the Browns have any life at all left in their bodies?

Another season has come and just about gone, and the Browns once again find themselves in familiar territory – with a string of late-season losses (the current tally is five in a row), little interest from the home fans and in firm possession of last place in the AFC North. Merry Christmas, Browns fans.

Now line up for your lumps of coal.

After getting booed off the field by the few remaining fans who had the misfortune of owning tickets to Sunday’s latest loss (38-31, to the Bears), Cleveland players must now lug a 4-10 record with them on the road, where the Brownies are 1-5 this season.

The Jets (5-2 at home this year) still have an outside shot at a wild card berth that could save the jobs of a lot of folks in Jersey, so they should be able to cover the deuce against an unmotivated Browns team.

Spread to wait on

Miami Dolphins (-2.5) at Buffalo Bills

The public is pounding the Dolphins hard after their big victory over the Patriots, with three of every four dollars down backing the Fish. With that much early action on Miami, bettors might be able to hang on until late in the week and see if the number goes to 3.

Miami’s win over New England took place in 84-degree weather against a Patriots team that is only a shadow of what it used to be.

The Bills are 7-7 overall and have yet to be blown out at home this season. And if the temperature is even half of that 84, the Dolphins will be delighted

Miami has three-straight wins and will be looking to snag a wild card playoff spot, but Buffalo also has motivation – if the Bills lose, it would probably mean a sixth straight last-place finish in the AFC East and a huge roster turnover. Advice here is to hang tight and wait for the line to lengthen a bit.

Total to watch

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks(45)

Know this about the Seahawks – they play great defense, but they can also put points on the board at home. The poodle’s offense has put up 34 (vs. New Orleans), 41 (Minnesota) and 27 in its last three home games, so Seattle figures to be able to move the ball, even against a pretty good Cardinal team.

But, but, but ... Arizona QB Carson Palmer suffered a high ankle sprain in Sunday’s victory at Tennessee and is listed as questionable for Seattle.

The Seahawks figure to come hard at Palmer, who has never been known for his work against blitzes. Going into Seattle with a gimpy starting QB or, even worse, a second-stringer, is poison.

Under is the play, even with a moderate number of 45.

**TheGame** · 12-20-2013, 06:26 AM

Sharp Moves - Week 16
By Mike Rose
VegasInsider.com

We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 16!

All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com as of Thursday morning.

Buffalo +2.5 - This is definitely the sharpest play on the board this week. The Bills are playing at home in the cold weather against a Miami team which really needs this game to have a shot at getting into the playoffs. Meanwhile, the offensive line problems for Miami still haven't been fixed, and the pass rush for Buffalo is still the strength of its team. Truthfully, we believe that the Bills should be the favored side in this one, and the less than 30% of the public betting on this game believe the same as we do. There's a reason the oddsmakers aren't pushing this one to '3' even with all of the public action on the Fins.

Opening Line: Buffalo +2.5
Current Line: Buffalo +2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 71% on Miami

Washington +2.5 - Go ahead. Ask yourself the question. How in the heck is WASHINGTON sharp? The Redskins have been an abysmal wreck all season long, but they did show a pulse last week against the Falcons, coming from behind to hit the backdoor right at the end of the game. Could the same be said about this week? QB Kirk Cousins turns the ball over in the clutch less than QB Tony Romo (obviously!), and that might make all the difference in the world. Dallas has proven that it can collapse under any circumstance, and going on the road, even against a team which doesn't want to play anymore football this year, could be another one of these situations.

Opening Line: Washington +2.5
Current Line: Washington +2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 71% on Dallas

Tampa Bay +5.5 - It's funny how the public always react to what it sees most recently. Most recently, it saw the Bucs get killed by the 49ers in a game which, by the way, was actually a close game until the wheels sort of fell off there in the third quarter. And most recently, the Rams destroyed the Saints, who are still perceived to be one of the best teams in the NFL, though we aren't all that sure whether they are or they aren't at this point. It just created a goofy looking line in this game. The Rams don't necessarily have the best team on the field in this one, but the oddsmakers are insinuating they are going to win by a healthy margin. The dial has moved a tad in this one, but not enough to sway away the sharp bettors.

Opening Line: Tampa Bay +5
Current Line: Tampa Bay +5.5
Public Betting Percentage: 66% on St. Louis

**TheGame** · 12-20-2013, 06:26 AM

NFL Week 16

Dolphins (8-6) @ Bills (5-9) -- Miami is 5-2 since the bullying fiasco, winning last three games by 20-6-4 points; they lost 23-21 (-7.5) at home to Buffalo in Week 7, turning ball over three times (-2), converting 3-13 on thirrd down (Bills were 9-19). Five of last seven series games were decided by 7 or less points; Fish won two of last three visits here, after losing previous seven. Buffalo lost five of its last seven games; they're 3-4 at home- Bills are +9 in their five wins, -8 in losses. You'd think Fish would be in trouble up north in December, but they've already won games in Swamp/Pittsburgh this month. Miami is 4-3 on road this season. Home teams are 5-2 vs spread in AFC East divisional games, 3-0 if underdogs. Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Miami games; three of last four Buffalo games went over the total.

Saints (10-4) @ Panthers (10-4) -- First place in NFC South on line here; Saints are averaging 14.5 ppg less on road than at home- they've lost four of last five games on road, outscored 51-10 in first half of last two. Saints lost to Jets/Rams on road, red flags. NO beat Carolina 31-13 (-3) two weeks ago, holding Newton to 2.8 ypa; it is only game Panthers didn't have at least one play of 20+ yards. Panthers won last six home games (5-0-1 vs spread) after losing home opener 12-7 to Seahawks; Carolina won nine of last ten games overall after 1-3 start. Saints are 0-2 as dogs this year. Home teams are 8-1 vs spread in NFC South divisional games, 6-0 if they are favored. Last five Saint games, five of last six Carolina games stayed under total. Carolina swept Saints LY, but lost last five games against Sean Payton.

Cowboys (7-7) @ Redskins (3-11) -- Hard to pick either side here; Dallas allowed 82 points in losing last two games, outscored 55-24 in second half- they blew 26-3 halftime lead to Pack's #4 QB last week. Cowboys are 7-3 in last ten series games, winning 31-16 (-6) in first meeting, in game where Skins outgained Dallas 433-213, but gave up PR for TD and TD drives of 15-3 yards. Washington lost last six in a row (1-5 vs spread); Cousins threw for 373 yards last week but they missed 2-pt play in last minute that would've won game. Cowboys are 3-2 in last five visits to DC; they're 1-3 on grass fields this season. Home teams are 4-6 vs spread in NFC East divisional games, 0-1 if home dogs. Last seven Cowboy games, six of last nine Washington games went over total.

Buccaneers (4-10) @ Rams (6-8) -- St Louis is favored for first time since beating Jaguars 34-20 (-11) in Week 5; they seem to play better vs better teams, with wins over three of eight division leaders. Rams are +17 in turnovers in six wins, -7 in the losses; they're 4-3 SU at home, 1-1 as home faves. Bucs won four of last six after an 0-8 start; they're 2-4 on road, 2-3 as road dogs, losing away games by 1-20-8-3-21 points, with only win 24-21 at Lions (they were +5 in turnovers). Tampa Bay is 4-6 as underdogs this year, 2-3 on road. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 19-5-1 vs spread, 10-4-1 at home; NFC South road dogs are 6-5. Three of last four Tampa Bay and last three Ram tilts stayed under the total. This is Bucs' first visit here since '04; they're 5-2 vs Rams since losing 11-6 in '00 NFC title game here.

Bears (8-6) @ Eagles (8-6) -- Philly won last two home games, 24-16/34-20 after breaking long losing skid at Linc; they're 5-3 in last eight games as favorite. Chicago scored 83 points in winning last two games; they've averaged 7.2+ ypa in last four games, as teams have trouble covering their big WRs. Chicago won four of last five series games (all decided by 6 or less points), in series where road teams won six of last eight meetings. Bears won last week despite allowing two defensive TDs; they won field position in 10 of 14 games this year. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 9-13 vs spread, 6-8 at home; NFC North road underdogs are 4-7. Four of last five Bear games went over total; five of last six Philly home games stayed under the total. Detroit's loss Monday night puts Chicago in control of own destiny to win the NFC North- they play Packers at home next week.

Browns (4-10) @ Jets (6-8) -- Cleveland scored two defensive TDs and still lost to Chicago last week, bad sign for team that lost last five games and eight of last nine. Browns are +3 in turnovers in last two games, -6 for year; Jets are -19 for season, -20 in losses, +1 in wins. Gang Green scored 37-20 points in last two games after not scoring TD in previous two games; they've lost field position by 10+ yards in each of last four losses. Jets are 5-2 at home, scoring 3-6 points in losses to Miami, Steelers; Browns are 1-5 on road, 3-3 as road dog; they had Patriots 26-14 at 2:00 warning of last road game, lost by point. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 11-6-2 vs spread, 6-4-2 at home; AFC East favorites are 7-4, 5-3 at home. Six of last eight Jet games, six of last seven Cleveland games went over the total.

Colts (9-5) @ Chiefs (11-3) -- There's chance these teams could meet in first round of playoffs in two weeks; Indy is 11-2 in last 13 series games, 3-0 in playoff tilts. Colts won six of last seven visits here, winning 20-13 LY; Chiefs are 2-5 vs spread at home, losing 41-38/35-28 in last two, after winning first five-- they scored 101 points in winning last two games on road- they led 38-10/35-17 at half the last two weeks. Colts lost 40-11/42-28 in last two road games- they were outscored 79-12 in first half of last four away games. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 13-9 vs spread, 7-5 at home; AFC South underdogs are 8-16-1, 6-7-1 on road. Chiefs' last four games and six of last eight Indy games went over total. Chiefs have four TDs on defense/special teams in their last three games. This is bigger game for KC, who could get a first-round bye if they win AFC West.

Vikings (4-9-1) @ Bengals (9-5) -- Cincy won/covered all six home games, beating Pack/Pats/Colts at home; Bengals are 6-0-1 in second half of last seven games, with 116-59 scoring edge after halftime since Week 8. Minnesota is competing, covering six of last seven games, going 2-1-1 SU in last four; 41-20 loss at Seattle was only time in last seven games they lost by more than 7 points. Vikings are 5-3 as road dogs- they hung 48 on Philly last week with Peterson sitting out- they averaged 9.7 ypa with Cassel throwing for 370 yards, but this game is outdoors, and against a better defense. Bengals now have Ravens breathing down their neck, so this is big games for them. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 6-5 vs spread this season; NFC North road underdogs are 4-7. 12 of 14 Viking games, six of last eight Cincinnati games went over total.

**TheGame** · 12-20-2013, 10:21 PM

Inside the Stats
by Marc Lawrence

Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards.

Down the stretch update

As we outlined in this space last week, the final four weeks of the NFL season is a race to the wire for teams in the playoff chase. It’s also the time teams out of contention put things on cruise control and start preparing for next season.

According to our database some coaches shine while others wine during the final four games down the stretch.

From an ATS standpoint, listed below are coaches in their best and worst roles throughout their NFL career and the situational role in which appear this week. All results are ATS (against the spread).

Best Roles:

John Fox, Denver • 6-1 as a favorite of more than nine points

Leslie Frazier, Minnesota • 5-0 away vs. non-division opponents

Ron Rivera, Carolina • 3-0-1 as a favorite

Mike Shanahan, Washington • 8-0 home vs. division foe off a loss

Worst Roles:

Dennis Allen, Oakland • 0-2-1 off a double-digit loss

Jason Garrett, Dallas • 1-6 vs. division opponents

Greg Schiano, Tampa Bay • 1-3 vs. sub .500 opponents

Oil drip

Football teams who have been out-gained in each of their last three games are considered to be “leaking oil” when installed as favorites.

This week’s “leaking oil” favorites in the NFL are Baltimore, New York Jets and St. Louis.

By our count the Jets have been out -gained in each of their last seven games, the Rams in each of their last five, and the Ravens in three straight contests.

NFL tax collectors

In the highest-scoring week in NFL history, the average total points per game in the league was a whopping 52.8 last week.

The average game went Over by 6.3 points, adding to the 8.9 points two weeks ago. It was the second consecutive week in which NFL games averaged 52 or more points.

Be prepared to pay a tax on this week’s games, as the average total is at 46.9 point.

Meanwhile, the gift that keeps on giving has been Overs in non-conference games. With another outstanding 3-1 O/U effort last week, these non-conference totals are now 47-15 O/U this season.

With the final week of the schedule a matchup of all division games, the final two plays of the season kick off on Sunday. Those games are: Minnesota at Cincinnati and Pittsburgh at Green Bay.

**TheGame** · 12-21-2013, 12:21 PM

Gridiron Angles - Week 16
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider.com

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

The Giants are 16-0 ATS (10.62 ppg) since September 26, 1999 on the road if not favored by more than nine, when they are facing a team that has allowed at least 12 yards per completion season-to-date.

NFL PLAYER TREND:

The Bears are 13-0 OU (12.96 ppg) since November 13, 2011 the week after a win in which Matt Forte didn’t have a 20+ yard reception.

NFL BIBLE ATS TREND:

The Cowboys are 16-0 ATS (+10.5 ppg) since 1998 when they are off a Sunday game in which they allowed 400-plus yards of offense and at least 35 points.

NFL BIBLE OU TREND:

The Lions are 15-0 OU (+12.7 ppg) since November 2007 facing an opponent which controlled the ball for less than 26:30 last game.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM:

Teams coming off a game where the total was at least 49 and the game went under the total by at least 12 points are 32-57-1 OU. Active with Detroit and Baltimore.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

The Rams are 12-0 OU (7.92 ppg) since September 25, 2005 at home after a game in which they sacked the opposing quarterback at least 4 times.

PICK SIXTY SPORTS WEEKLY TIP:

Try as it might, December is yet to curb the high scoring trend of this year’s NFL games and the past two weeks our records show a tally of 21 overs and 11 unders. The overall record since Week 13 which includes November (Thanksgiving) and December games is 28-20 O/U (58-percent) and one of the unders was the first meeting between the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints (UN 47). The 34-7 loss brought Carolina’s eight-game winning streak to an end but last week vs. New York, the Panthers took a double-digit lead into the half and won 30-20.

The Panthers were quick to remind fans that the 27-point blowout to New Orleans was more a fluke than anything but they still have a lot to prove. This angle has produced a modest 53-38-2 O/U record since realignment but you’ll note an upward trend of 9 overs and 4 unders the past two seasons (69-percent OV). In four games this year (3-1 O/U) the three overs have each cleared the bar by double-digits (23.3 avg) and in this rematch we expect both offenses to have some success.

Pick: Take the Saints-Panthers OVER 46 points

**TheGame** · 12-21-2013, 12:22 PM

Miami @ Buffalo

The Dolphins are 16-7 ATS in games where the line is 3 points or less, 8-4 ATS when playing with same season revenge, 8-3 ATS in the month of December and 5-1 ATS on thr road off a straight up win versus an opponent with revenge. On the flip side the fish are 47-65 ATS versus losing teams and 2-6 ATS after playing New England. The Bills are 5-1 ATS at home this season, 17-9 ATS as a home dog of 3 points or less, however, they’re just 7-11 ATS overall when the posted line is 3 points or less, 4-8 ATS in December, 1-9 ATS the last home game of the season after a straight up and ATS win and just 1-6 ATS offa straight up win the last 4 weeks of the regular season. Note the home team in Miami games is 27-15 ATS and the underdog in Dolphin games is 50-21 ATS. However, in this series the favorite is 4-1 ATS the last 5 meetings.

New Orleans @ Carolina

The Saints are 1-6 ATS on the road this season, 9-15 ATS last 24 overall on the road and 1-3 ATS versus divisional opponents with revenge. On the plus side New Orleans is 8-4 ATS in the month of December, 15-7 ATS versus winning teams and 16-3 ATS off a straight non-divisional loss. The Panthers are 10-5 ATS when playing with revenge, 50-26 ATS in the month of December, 60-46 ATS when the line is 3 points or less, 5-1 ATS at home this season, 7-1 ATS versus the Saints off a straight up favorite loss and 5-1 ATS after facing an AFC opponent. Note in this series that the road team is 19-7 ATS the last 26, however, the home team in New Orleans games is on a 12-1-1 ATS run.

Dallas @ Washington

The Cowboys are 8-18 ATS as favorites, 11-22 ATS versus NFC opponents, 3-8 ATS in the month os December, 6-13 ATS versus losing teams, 2-7 ATS after facing Green Bay, but the Cow Pokes are 21-5 ATS after allowing 35 points or more the previous week. The Redskins are 10-5 ATS when playing with revenge, 14-9 ATS when the line is 3 points or less, 2-9 ATS as underdogs off a straight up loss, but theyre 6-1 ATS after a 1 point straight up loss versus a divisional opponent. In this series Washington is 6-1 ATS the last 7 meetings and the underdog is 23-8 ATS the last 31, which fits nicely with the fact that the underdog in Dallas games is 39-13 ATS.

Tampa Bay @ St Louis

The Buccaneers are 5-10 ATS as underdogs of 3½ to 9½ points, 19-26 ATS overall, 7-18-1 ATS when playing in December, 1-4 ATS versus NFC West, 5-12 ATS versus losing teams and 1-6 ATS after a double digit straight up loss playing with revenge. On the plus die Tampa Bay is 7-1 ATS versus non-divisional opponents after facing San Francisco. The Rams are 14-20 ATS versus NFC opponents, 61-73 ATS as favorites including 2-5 lately, 17-35-1 ATS at home versus teams with a losing record on the road, On the plus side The Rams are 6-1 ATS as a favorite in their last home game of the season and 12-2- ATS at home after a 14+ point ATS win. Note in this series the underdog is 6-1 ATS the last 7 meetings.

Chicago @ Philadelphia

The Bears are 3-7 ATS when the line is 3 points or less, 6-12 ATS as an underdog, 18-26 ATS overall9-12 ATS on the road, 3-8 ATS when playing in December and 0-11 ATS as a road dog of 7 points or less when the posted total on the game is 46 points or more. The Eagles are 5-20 ATS at home, 18-27 ATS overall, 6-10 ATS when playing December, 2-9-1 ATS versus winning teams and 0-6 ATS the last home game of the season versus a non-divisional opponent. Note in this series that the road team is 7-3 ATS and the underdog is 8-2 ATS.

Cleveland @ NY Jets

The Browns are 6-10 ATS when the line is 3 points or less, 8-12 ATS as an underdog of 3 points or less, but they’re also 12-6 ATS off 2 or more straight up losses and 8-1 ATS versus AFC East opponents with a losing record. The Jets are 10-13 ATS when the line is 3 points or less, 5-17 ATS at home, 10-19 ATS as a favorite, 6-10 ATS when playing in December, 0-6 ATS versus AFC North opponents and 7-20 ATS at home versus a losing team after playing an NFC game.

Indianapolis @ Kansas City

The Colts are 35-44 ATS as underdogs of 3½ to 9½ points and 5-10 ATS after a divisional game, but they’re also 10-2 ATS in the month of December, 7-3 ATS the last 4 weeks of the season and 11-4 ATS versus winning teams in the last 4 weeks of the regular season. The Chiefs are 4-2 ATS as favorites of 3½ to 9½ points and 5-1 ATS as favorites off a double digit straight up win versus an opponent with a winning record. However, the Chiefs are just 9-14 ATS at home and 14-20 ATS versus AFC opponents. Note in this series that the Colts are 9-3 ATS the last 12 including 6-1 ATS in Kansas City.

Minnesota @ Cincinnati

The Vikings are 13-6 ATS underdogs of 3½ to 9½ points and 10-3 ATS in the month of December, but they’re also just 2-13 ATS the last road game of the season versus an opponent off a double digit straight up loss. The Bengals are 10-3 ATS as favorites of 3½ to 9½ points, 6-0 ATS at home this season and 7-2 ATS versus NFC opponents. On the reverse side Cincinnati is 33-51 ATS after a divisional loss and 4-12 ATS after a straight up divisional road loss. Note in this series that the home team is 4-0 ATS and that the home team in Cincinnati games is on a 13-2-1 ATS run.

Denver @ Houston

the Broncos are 13-4 ATS favorites of 3½ to 9½ points, 19-11 ATS favorites overall, 11-5 ATS after a divisional game, 8-3 ATS when playing in December, 23-12 ATS on grass and 13-5 ATS versus losing teams. On flip side the Broncos are 1-7 ATS as road favorites versus non-divisional AFC opponents of a double digit straight up loss. The Texans are 4-7 ATS as underdogs of 3½ to 9½ points, 1-6 ATS at home this season, 2-8 ATS versus AFC opponents, 2-6 ATS versus AFC West opponents and 0-10 straight up, 3-7 ATS after 2 or more straight up losses, 3-12 ATS after a 14+ point loss and 1-7 ATS as underdogs of 3 or more points before a divisional road game. However, the Texans are 9-1 ATS at hom ein December off 2 or more losses.

Tennessee @ Jacksonville

The Titans are 5-2 ATS on the road, 7-3 ATS off 2 or more straight up losses, 8-4 ATS versus losing teams and 4-0 ATS on the road after a straight up home loss. However, the Titans are 3-12 ATS versus AFC South opponents and just 3-8 ATS when playing in December. The Jaguars are 5-14 ATS as underdogs of 3½ to 9½ points, 6-13 ATS as home underdogs of 3½ to 7 points, 7-15 ATS at home overall and 2-6 ATS at home versus an opponent off a home game. The Jaguars, however, are 10-5 ATS versus divisional opponents.

Arizona @ Seattle

The Cardinals are 18-12 ATS as an underdog, 7-10 ATS as dogs of 3½ to 9½ points and 2-6 ATS the last 8 in Seattle. On the flip side Arizona is 3-0 ATS off back to back straight up wins and 7-1 ATS as double digit underdogs with revenge versus a team with a winning record. The Seahawks are 9-0 ATS as favorites of 3½ to 9½ points, 33-14 ATS overall, 36-16-1 ATS at home including 17-5 ATS the last 22, 11-1 ATS in December, 9-2 ATS as a double digit favrite off a non-divisional game and 14-3 ATS versus winning teams. Note in this series the home team is 4-1 ATS the last 5 and that Seattle is 3-0 ATS the last 3 at home.

NY Giants @ Detroit

The Giants are 6-0 ATS versus NFC North opponents, 7-3 ATS the last road game of the season, 13-7 ATS versus winning teams, 10-5 ATS versus winning teams the second half of the season and 9-2 ATS as road dogs after a double digit straight up loss with revenge versus an opponent with a winning record. On the flip side the Giants are 3-8 ATS on the road and 1-4 ATS after scoring 15 points or less the previous week. The Lions are 9-18 ATS when playing in a dome, 10-21 ATS versus NFC opponents, 2-9 in the month of December. 0-5 ATS last 5 at home after a loss to an AFC opponent. Note in this series that the road team is 5-0 ATS and the underdog is 4-1 ATS the last 5 meetings.

Oakland @ San Diego

The Raiders 13-9 ATS on the road including 4-2 ATS this year, 10-1 ATS as divisional underdogs of 3 points or less off a straight up loss, 9-2 ATS divisional underdogs of more than 3 points off a straight up loss and 4-1 ATS the last road game of the season. The Chargers are 18-8 ATS home favorites of 3½ to 9½ points, 63-42 ATS as favorites of 3½ to 9½ points and 8-1 ATS with revenge after a straight up win. However, the Chargers are just 4-10 ATS after a divisional game. Note in this series that the underdog is 9-0 ATS.

Pittsburgh @ Green Bay

The Steelers are 8-18 ATS versus NFC North opponents, 13-22 ATS playing on grass, 2-7 ATS off a divisional win, 6-13 ATS on the road, 3-7 ATS the final 4 weeks of the regular season, 1-5 ATS on the road versus NFC opponents off a straight up underdog win and they’re just 2-6 ATS after playing Cincinnati. The Packers are 18-9 ATS versus AFC North opponents, 57-32 ATS in December, 10-0 ATS off a straight up win as a non-divisional underdog and 10-1 ATS as home favorites of lass than 13 points before a divisional road game.

New England @ Baltimore

The Patriots are 3-7 ATS versus AFC opponents, 2-5 ATS versus AFC North opponents and 3-7 ATS in the month of December. On the plus side New England is 7-1 ATS the Last road game of the season, 13-2 ATS after a divisional game, 29-19 ATS after a divisional loss and 35-17-1 ATS after any loss. The Ravens are 5-2 ATS versus AFC East oppoents, 15-5 ATS versus winning teams, 8-0 ATS at home before playing Cincinnati versus an opponent off a straight up and ATS loss, but Baltimore is just 3-8 ATS when playing in the month of December. Note the home team is Baltimore games is 12-3-1 ATS.

Atlanta @ San Francisco

The Falcons are 3-6 ATS underdogs this year, 1-5 ATS on the road, 1-6 ATS versus NFC West Opponents, 3-10 ATS versus winning teams, 0-4 ATS off a 1 point straight up win versus a non-divisional oppoent and just 6-12 ATS when playing on Monday night. San Francisco is 33-17 ATS overall the last 50 overall, 26-14 ATS as a favorite, 17-8 ATS at home, 10-5 ATS versus losing teams, 24-10 ATS when playing on grass, 11-1-1 ATS at home aftera straight up road win, 7-1-2 ATS as a home favorite of 8 points or more versus a non-divisional opponent and they’re a terrific 28-9 ATS playing on Monday night.

**TheGame** · 12-22-2013, 06:21 AM

Dolphins	@	Bills	12/22/2013 01:00 PM	CBS	36/26f Heavy Rain	Get Details
Vikings	@	Bengals	12/22/2013 01:00 PM	FOX	58/36f Showers Likely	Get Details
Colts	@	Chiefs	12/22/2013 01:00 PM	CBS	23/41f Slight Chc Snow	Get Details
Buccaneers	@	Rams	12/22/2013 01:00 PM	FOX	DOME	Get Details
Browns	@	Jets	12/22/2013 01:00 PM	CBS	54/41f Showers	Get Details
Cowboys	@	Redskins	12/22/2013 01:00 PM	FOX	57/42f Heavy Rain	Get Details
Saints	@	Panthers	12/22/2013 01:00 PM	FOX	60/49f Thunderstorms	Get Details
Titans	@	Jaguars	12/22/2013 01:00 PM	CBS	66/66f Mostly Cloudy	Get Details
Broncos	@	Texans	12/22/2013 01:00 PM	CBS	52/60f Partly Sunny	Get Details
Cardinals	@	Seahawks	12/22/2013 04:05 PM	FOX	42/48f Rain Likely	Get Details
Giants	@	Lions	12/22/2013 04:05 PM	FOX	DOME	Get Details
Steelers	@	Packers	12/22/2013 04:25 PM	CBS	-1/25f Snow	Get Details
Raiders	@	Chargers	12/22/2013 04:25 PM	CBS	46/66f Becoming Sunny	Get Details
Patriots	@	Ravens	12/22/2013 04:25 PM	NBC	38/73f Heavy Rain	Get Details
Bears	@	Eagles	12/22/2013 08:30 PM	FOX	57/40f Heavy Rain	Get Details

**TheGame** · 12-22-2013, 06:30 AM

Total Talk - Week 16
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 15 Recap

The ‘over’ went 10-6 last week and is now 22-11 (67%) the past two weekends. The all-time scoring records continue to be shattered and that trend might not slow down anytime soon.

Are the oddsmakers worried?

“We are adjusting each and every week. The sharps don’t hit the totals that often so there’s no urgency. Our adjustments have been one way and that is higher,” answered Jay Kornegay, Vice President of Race and Sports Operations at the LVH Super Book in Las Vegs.

“I think the rule changes, the way they (referees) call games, and the player safety rules all favor the offensive side of the ball. I think the totals in the 30’s will be a thing of the past. I don’t see how the defensives can keep up with the offenses.”

The lowest total on the board in Week 16 is 41, which is the number on the Browns-Jets matchup. That game opened 39 and apparently somebody is expecting points in New York this weekend.On the season, the ‘over’ holds a 121-99-2 (55%) edge.

Streaks to Watch

As we enter the end of the regular season, make a note of these teams and their respective total runs heading into Week 16.

Dallas – Over 5-0 the last five weeks
Kansas City – Over 4-0 after an 8-2 start to the Under
Jacksonville – Over 6-1 run, including 3-0 last three weeks
Seahawks and Rams – Under 3-0 last three weeks
Dolphins – Under on a 4-1 run
New Orleans – Best Under team (10-4) this season, which includes 5-0 run
Browns and Steelers – Over 3-0 last three weeks
San Francisco – 5-1 run to the Under, could easily be 6-0 last six

Systems & Trends

The non-conference ‘over’ trend improved to 48-15 (76%) last weekend with a 3-1 mark. We only have two AFC-NFC matchups on tap this Sunday and they are the last non-conference games of the season until the Super Bowl.

Minnesota at Cincinnati
Pittsburgh at Green Bay

Last week we pointed out a trend that a VegasInider.com user sent to us and it cashed as well with the Jaguars-Bills matchup going ‘over’ the number. It’s real simple and involves the home team that played in the Thursday game from the previous week. Regardless of the venue, the ‘over’ has gone 13-2-1 (87%) in the following game for that team. If you want to follow the angle again, it calls for the ‘over’ in the Denver-Houston matchup on Sunday since the Broncos hosted the Chargers on Thursday in Week 15.

Line Moves

The Line Moves went 1-2 last week, pushing the season numbers to 40-31-1. Listed below are this week’s matchups that have had a total move by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS’s opening lines, which were sent out Sunday evening.

Dallas at Washington: Line opened 51 and jumped to 53
Denver at Houston: Line opened 51½ and jumped to 53
Indianapolis at Kansas City: Line opened 41½ and jumped to 46½
Arizona at Seattle: Line opened 45 and dropped to 43
Oakland at San Diego: Line opened 48 and jumped to 50½

Divisional Battles

Miami at Buffalo: The Bills defeated the Dolphins 23-21 on the road in Week 7 with QB Thaddeus Lewis under the center. Miami will be facing Lewis again on Sunday with starter E.J. Manuel (knee) ‘out’ with an injury. The first encounter wound up being a push (44) on the total and this week’s number (43) is a tad lower and weather could play a role.

New Orleans at Carolina: The Saints beat the Panthers 31-13 on Dec. 8 and the combined 44 points fell short of the closing total (47). Prior to this outcome, the ‘over’ was on a 4-0 run. In the last six encounters, New Orleans has averaged 34.2 PPG. The number

Dallas at Washington: This number has been bet up and it’s hard argue for an ‘under’ play when you look at the defensive units for both the Cowboys (25.3 PPG, 421 YPG) and the Redskins (30.2 PPG, 374 YPG). Despite the inept play on defense, the ‘under’ has gone 2-0 in the last two encounters between the pair.

Tennessee at Jacksonville: The ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run in this series, which includes the Jaguars’ 29-27 road win over the Titans on Nov. 10 this season. The total on that game was 42 and this week’s rematch has a number hovering around 44.

Arizona at Seattle: In Week 7, the Seahawks stopped the Cardinals 34-22 on the road in a Thursday night affair. Including that outcome, three of the last four meetings have gone ‘over.’ Seattle’s defense is getting stronger lately, allowing 26 combined points in their last three games.

Oakland at San Diego: The Chargers and Raiders have seen the ‘over/under’ go 1-1 during the regular season in each of the two previous years. I bring that to your attention because Oakland defeated San Diego 27-17 on Oct. 6 and the game went ‘under’ the closing number of 46. If you don’t recall, the first meeting started at 11:30 p.m. PT because the Oakland A’s had a home game on Saturday night that week and the field couldn’t be football-ready. QB Philip Rivers didn’t play well (3 INTs) but he’s been spot on the last two weeks and the Raiders defense has been atrocious the last seven games (34.7 PPG), which has helped the ‘over’ go 6-0-1 in this span.

Under the Lights

The ‘under’ went 2-1 last week and the lone ‘over’ occurred on SNF in the Steelers-Bengals matchup, which was the lowest total of the three primetime games. After this week there will only be one more game played under the lights, which takes place on Sunday, Dec. 29. On the season, the ‘over’ has gone 26-21 (55%) in primetime games.

Chicago at Philadelphia: Even those teams aren’t in the same division, they have met five times in the last six seasons and the ‘over’ has gone 3-2 during this span. Chicago earned a 30-24 road victory in 2011 and a 31-26 home win in 2010. Those games had totals of ranging between 42 and 47 points. This week’s number opened at 54½ and has been bumped up to 55½. I mention the odds because Chicago hasn’t seen a total this high all season but it has had three numbers in the fifties. In those games, the ‘under’ cashed in all three. However, the defensive units on the field this week are much worse and points could be a plenty.

Atlanta at San Francisco: The closing of Candlestick Park should add some drama to this matchup, which is a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship. In case you forgot, the 49ers rallied past the Falcons 28-24 and the ‘over’ (47½) was on a good pace throughout. As mentioned above, San Francisco has been a great ‘under’ bet lately, even better at home (5-2) this season. Atlanta has been a tough team to gauge down the stretch but it has watched its total results alternate the past five weeks. If that trend stays true, then you’re looking at an ‘under’ on MNF.

Fearless Predictions

The VI bankroll dropped 20 cents last week and it probably should’ve dropped $430 but at the same time, we could’ve picked up $400. Still in the black for $240 heading into the last two weeks. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Denver-Houston 53
Best Under: Tennessee-Jacksonville 44
Best Team Total: Over 29½ San Diego

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 44 Denver-Houston
Over 41½ Oakland-San Diego
Under 54 Atlanta-San Francisco

**TheGame** · 12-22-2013, 06:30 AM

Week 16 NFL Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Saints at Panthers (-3, 45)

New Orleans: 10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS
Carolina: 10-4 SU, 8-5-1 ATS

Last week's results: The Saints put together their second straight poor performance away from the Superdome, falling at St. Louis, 27-16. New Orleans failed to cash as 6 ½-point favorites for their fifth consecutive ATS loss on the road, while allowing at least 26 points for the fourth time in five away contests. The Panthers held off the Jets, 30-20, to pull into a first-place tie in the NFC South with the Saints. Since losing at Seattle in Week 1, Carolina has won six straight home contests, while going 5-0-1 ATS.

Previous meeting result: New Orleans crushed Carolina two weeks ago at the Superdome, 31-13 to easily cash as three-point favorites. Drew Brees shredded the Panthers' defense for four touchdown passes, the fourth home win in the last five matchups with Carolina.

Betting notes: The Saints have finished 'under' the total in five straight games, while scoring 17 points or less in three of their last four contests. Carolina's run of six consecutive 'unders' ended in Sunday's win over New York, as the Panthers' defense has limited all seven opponents at home to 20 points or less.

Colts at Chiefs (-6½, 46½)

Indianapolis: 9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS
Kansas City: 11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS

Last week's results: The Chiefs' offense blew up for the second straight week, dropping 56 points on the Raiders in a 25-point rout as 6 ½-point road favorites. Kansas City has now scored 101 points in the last two games, while putting up at least 28 points in four consecutive contests. The Colts continued their dominance of the weak AFC South with their fifth win in five tries after a 25-3 blowout of the struggling Texans. Indianapolis cashed as six-point favorites, but the Colts have alternated ATS wins and losses the last seven games.

Previous meeting result: Nearly a year to the day, the Colts went into Arrowhead Stadium and knocked off the Chiefs, 20-13 as 4½-point road 'chalk.' Jamaal Charles rushed all over the Indianapolis defense for 226 yards, including an 86-yard touchdown scamper, but that was the lone touchdown scored by Kansas City.

Betting notes: The Colts haven't won back-to-back games since early November, while posting a 1-3 SU/ATS road record against teams from outside the AFC South. The Chiefs have easily cashed the 'over' in the last four weeks with their scoring barrage, but Kansas City owns a 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS record against clubs that are currently at .500 or better.

Cardinals at Seahawks (-10, 43)

Arizona: 9-5 SU, 10-4 ATS
Seattle: 12-2 SU, 10-4 ATS

Last week's results: The Seahawks bounced back from just their second loss of the season by shutting out the Giants, 23-0. Seattle likely played its final game away from CenturyLink Field until February, as the Seahawks completed a solid 6-2 SU/ATS record on the road. The Cardinals squandered a late 17-point lead at Tennessee last week, but Arizona recovered with a 37-34 victory in overtime. Arizona has won six of seven games, but is still on the outside of the NFC Wild Card race behind Carolina and San Francisco.

Previous meeting result: Prior to this hot stretch for the Cardinals, they were blown out at home by Arizona, 34-22 back in Week 7. The Seahawks cashed as 4½-point road favorites, as Russell Wilson tossed three touchdown passes in the victory. Seattle has won each of the last three home meetings with Arizona, while limiting the Cardinals to 20 combined points in those three wins.

Betting notes: Both these teams are putting long ATS winning streaks on the line, as the Seahawks and Cardinals have each cashed in five straight games. Arizona has lost four of five road contests to NFC opponents this season, while dropping five consecutive games to division opponents on the highway. Seattle is riding a 14-game winning streak at home, while covering 11 times in this stretch (three ATS losses as double-digit favorites).

Steelers at Packers (-1½, 44)

Pittsburgh: 6-8 SU, 7-7 ATS
Green Bay: 7-6-1 SU, 6-8 ATS

Last week's results: The Packers' season isn't done yet, as Green Bay overcame a 23-point halftime deficit at Dallas to stun the Cowboys, 37-36 as four-point road underdogs. Matt Flynn threw four touchdown passes in the second half, as the Packers scored their most points in a game since a Week 8 victory at Minnesota. The Steelers ended a two-game skid by jumping on the Bengals early in a 30-20 home division triumph last Sunday night. Pittsburgh grabbed a 21-0 lead after one quarter and never looked back as the Steelers have won four of their last five games at Heinz Field.

Previous meeting result: The Packers won Super Bowl XLV over the Steelers in February 2011 with a 31-25 victory as three-point favorites. Green Bay jumped out to a 21-3 lead early, but the Steelers cut the deficit to three points in the fourth quarter. A late Packers' field goal guaranteed a cover for Green Bay backers, capping off a Super Bowl title as a Wild Card team.

Betting notes: After starting the season failing to cover four of their first five games away from Heinz Field, the Steelers have cashed two straight road games at Cleveland and Baltimore as short 'dogs. The comeback by Green Bay last Sunday snapped a six-game ATS skid for the Packers, while the Packers have won and covered two of three contests this season against AFC North opponents.

Patriots at Ravens (-2, 45)

New England: 10-4 SU, 6-8 ATS
Baltimore: 8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS

Last week's results: The Patriots haven't quite yet clinched the AFC East title after New England fell at Miami, 24-20 to snap a three-game winning streak. New England hasn't covered a game in three tries, while dropping three of its past four away from Gillette Stadium. The Ravens didn't reach the end zone on Monday night, but six field goals from kicker Justin Tucker, including a 61-yarder in the final minute pushed Baltimore past Detroit, 18-16 as 4½-point road underdogs.

Previous meeting result: Baltimore's final hurdle to winning the AFC Championship last season came in Foxboro, as the Ravens dominated the Patriots, 28-13 as eight-point underdogs. Since 2009, these teams have split six meetings, including three matchups that were decided by three points or less.

Betting notes: The Ravens haven't lost a home game in two months, going 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS in this span, while compiling a 5-2 mark to the 'under' at M&T Bank Stadium. The Patriots have been a fade machine on the highway, putting together a 1-6 ATS record on the road with the lone cover coming at Atlanta in Week 4. The flip-side is New England has won and covered all three games off a loss this season.

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NFL Betting. Week 16. Stats, trends and more

NFL Betting. Week 16. Stats, trends and more

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