NFL Betting. Week 15. Stats, trends and more

[TheGame]

NFL Opening Line Report: Oddsmakers padding postseason pushes
By JASON LOGAN

There can be good value spotting a team going all out down the stretch, which is why oddsmakers aren’t ashamed to say their padding the lines for those must-win games.

“As we go into the final few weeks, we really want to hedge higher on those teams fighting for the playoffs,” says Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club. “This is time of year we admit to adding a couple points to those teams that really need a win.”

There are plenty of games on the Week 15 schedule with postseason implications, including a AFC West war between the San Diego Chargers and Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football.

Offshore books opened this line as low as Denver -10.5, but Korner says the Broncos need a win as much as any team right now. His oddsmakers sent out a suggested line of Denver -13, knowing the Broncos are motivated to clinch home-field advantage for the postseason – a key component to their Super Bowl plans.

“Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning but the Broncos poured it on against the Titans,” says Korner. “We sent out Denver -13 and saw that there were some 10’s out there – I don’t understand that line. There’s no need to be low on the highest-scoring team in the NFL. It’s going to be cold in Denver and San Diego isn’t going to like that. I don’t think we’re overpricing the Broncos. It’s just a better line.”

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+2)

The Patriots will be without star tight end Rob Gronkowski for the remainder of the season after he shredded his knee in Sunday’s thrilling win over Cleveland. According to Korner, Gronkowski is worth as much as two points to New England’s spreads.

“He’s a big hit to take and we’ve seen that already this year, with how poorly the Patriots played without him,” Korner says of Gronkowski. “He’s a point in a half, maybe even a two full point bump right off the bat. We’ve seen this offense struggle without him.”

Korner’s oddsmakers brought spread of New England -2 and -3 to the table, so they sent out the Patriots as 2.5-point road favorites in Miami.

“This is going to be a big dog play with the public,” he says. “Miami does need this game and could win straight up. Bettors are looking at how New England stalled versus Cleveland and needed a lucky hometown call to win the game. I just think dog players are going to be all over this one.”

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (N/A)

The Packers continue to play the waiting game on star QB Aaron Rodgers. Korner says they sent out Dallas -2.5 with Rodgers in the lineup and would suggest Dallas -8.5 or -9 if he is ruled out again while recovering from his broken collarbone.

“He’s a full six or seven points,” Korner says of Rodgers impact on this spread. “Green Bay is trying to stay in the mix and they want to play him if they can. He wants to play if he can. The line somewhat depends on how Dallas does (Monday). But with that game in the cold on the road, it may not matter much overall.”

Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions (-6)

Both the Ravens and Lions played in crazy snow games this past Sunday, but will nice and warm inside Ford Field on Monday Night Football.

Korner is expecting a heated primetime clash between two teams in the playoff hunt and sent out Detroit as a 3.5-point home favorite while offshores posted a bigger number at Lions -6.

“This is a must-win for both teams, so we sent it out pretty much at the pick’em when you factor the home field,” he says. “With weather not being a factor and them playing on a fast track indoors, we’ll see the true colors of both teams.”

[TheGame]

NFL Week 15

Redskins (3-10) @ Falcons (3-10) — How is Atlanta favored by six points over anyone? They’ve lost six of last seven games, haven’t won game by more than 8 points all year. Falcons are 2-4 at home, 2-2 vs spread when favored, but last time they were favored was Week 7. Atlanta’s last three games were all decided by 4 or less points; last week they became first team (1-3-1) to lose to Rodgers-less Packers. Assuming RGIII is playing until I hear otherwise; both teams here appear dead, with Redskins the more dead of the two, losing last five games while allowing average of 30.8 ppg. Skins allowed two special teams TDs in snow at home last week; they’ve scored 12.3 ppg in last four games, with five TDs on last 48 drives, with 20 3/outs- they allowed five TD drives of less than 50 yards in last three games. Washington is 0-2 on carpet this year, losing by 15-7 in domes at Dallas/Minnesota. Falcons won last three series games by 10-14-7 points; last time they lost to Redskins was 2003. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 9-6-1 vs spread, 8-2-1 at home. NFC East underdogs are 5-10, 4-7 on road. Three of last four Washington games stayed under the total.

49ers (9-4) @ Buccaneers (4-9) — Niners pulled out slugfest with Seattle last week, still lead race for second Wild Card spot; they’ve won last three games, giving up 12 ppg (3 TDs on 33 drives). 49ers were held to 9 or less points in three of four losses, with only exception 23-20 loss in Superdome. Bucs won four of last five games, covered five of last six; they won last three home games, after losing first four, two which were by 2-3 points. Tampa was even in turnovers in each of first six games; in seven games sice, they’re+13, with 19 takeaways in last six games- they won at Detroit, led 21-7 at half in Seattle, so they’ve improved, but last week was first time in last nine games they held team under 19 points. 49ers won field position in nine of 13 games and lost three of four teams they did not- they’ve won 16 of 21 series games, hammering Bucs 48-3 in last meeting two years ago; this is their first visit to Tampa since 2004. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 14-5-1 vs spread, 6-1 on road. NFC South underdogs are 9-8 vs spread, 2-3 at home. Last five 49er games, last three Tampa Bay games stayed under total.

Seahawks (11-2) @ Giants (5-8) — Super Bowl is in Swamp Stadium in seven weeks; Seahawks need to keep winning to wrap home field edge thru NFC playoffs so they can get back here then, and their home edge is significant. While Seahawks are 5-2 SU on road, their wins are by 5-3-12-5-23 points, with losses at Indy/SF- they’re 4-2 as road favorites, but just as easily could’ve lost to Texans/Rams/ Falcons on road, all non-playoff teams. Giants had won four in row after 0-6 start, but Week 12 loss to Dallas burst their bubble; in last two weeks, they fell behind Redskins 14-0 but rallied to beat dysfunctional Skins, then got blasted by Chargers last week, KO’ing them from contention. Giants are 2-4 vs spread as underdogs this year, 3-3 SU at home, with losses by 18-15-3 points- they’ve given up 283 rushing yards in last two games, bad news vs Lynch.. Seattle is 4-6 overall vs Giants, winning 36-25 in last visit here in ’11; they’ve lost six of eight visits to play Big Blue in Swamp. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 14-5-1 vs spread, 6-1 on road; NFC East underdogs are 5-10 vs spread, 1-3 at home. Three of last four Seattle games stayed under the total.

Cardinals (8-5) @ Titans (5-8) — Two teams going in opposite directions: Arizona won five of last six games (4-1-1 vs spread) with last three wins all by 13+ points, Titans lost seven of last nine games after 3-1 start- they’ve lost last four home games, with last two (vs Jags/Colts) by combined margin of five points. Arizona is just 2-4 SU on road, winning by FG in Tampa, by 13 in Jax; since they close out with games vs Seattle/49ers, they’d best win here, to stay within game of 49ers so Week 17 showdown stays important. Titans lost last four home games, by 9-14-2-3 points, but three of four teams that beat them will make playoffs; they’re 1-4-1 vs spread in last six games as an underdog. Cardinals were underdogs in first seven games this year, are 4-0-1 vs spread when favored (1-0 as road fave). Titans were +8 in turnovers in first six games; they’re -8 in last seven. Tennessee won four of last six series games after losing first three; Cardinals lost 20-17 in ’09, their only visit to Music City. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 14-5-1 vs spread, 6-1 on road; AFC South underdogs are 8-14-1 vs spread, 2-7 at home. Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Tennessee games.

Saints (10-3) @ Rams (5-8) — New Orleans averaged 18.8 ppg in splitting first six road games, with wins by 2-8-4 points, and losses at Swamp/Foxboro/Seattle- they average 31.4 ppg at home. Lousy St Louis team ambushed Saints 31-21 here two years ago; while I doubt Saints will take Rams lightly, they’re in Carolina sandwich, having beat Panthers at home Sunday night, with potential division-clinching rematch in Charlotte next Sunday. Rams play hard on defense but are deficient on offense with Clemens at QB; they’ve scored five TDs on defense/special teams in last three wins, lost last five games when they didn’t score on defense/ST. St Louis scored 27+ points in all five of its wins; they’re 3-3 at home, with losses by 24-5-7 points. Rams are 4-7 vs spread as underdogs this year, 2-2 at home; they’re +14 in turnovers in five wins, -7 in eight losses. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 7-6-1 vs spread, 2-1 at home. NFC South favorites are 9-6-1 vs spread, but 1-4 on foreign soil. Last four New Orleans games stayed under total; Rams are 5-4 SU this season when game goes over total, 0-4 when it stays under.

[TheGame]

Inside the Stats
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com

Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards.

Coaching Down the Stretch

The final four weeks of the NFL season are tantamount to the stretch run of a Graded Stakes horse race. It’s where all big races are won and lost.

It’s been said that if you don’t have the horse, you won’t win the race. For the most part this adage is right on the money. More time often than not, though, the ride the horse gets by his jockey is what puts the team in the winner’s circle. It’s why good jockeys are almost always atop quality horses in big races.

The same holds true for head coaches in the NFL. They too are the pilots, guiding their team to the wire, with game plans designed for success or failure… whichever the case may be.

From a profit and loss standpoint, listed below are the BEST and WORST current head coaches and their NFL career ATS records during Games 13-16 – minimum four occurrences (current team in parenthesis) heading into the 2013 season.

All results are ATS (Against The Spread)

BEST

Home: Ron Rivera (Carolina) 4-1

Away: Leslie Frazier (Minnesota) 5-1

Favorite: John Fox (Denver) 16-9-1

Underdog: Mike McCarthy (Green Bay) 7-0

WORST

Home: Jason Garrett (Dallas) 2-4

Away: Jim Harbaugh (San Francisco) 1-4

Favorite: Jason Garrett (Dallas) 1-5

Underdog: Andy Reid (Kansas City) 2-4

Pennzoil Play

Football teams who have been out gained in each of their last three games are considered to be ‘leaking oil’ when installed as favorites.

These ‘leaking oil’ favorites now stand at 29-33 ATS overall this season, including 21-23 in CFB and 8-10 in the NFL.

This week’s only play would be against the Indianapolis Colts in the NFL.

Passing Fancy

Here is a list of the league’s Top 10 best passing offenses and worst passing defenses. Play accordingly.

Best Pass Offenses
Denver 341.2 yards per game
New Orleans 302.8
Detroit 296.5
San Diego 288.7
Chicago 276.8
Atlanta 267.8
Pittsburgh 266.8
New England 265.9
Green Bay 265.5
Cleveland (surprise) 260.4

Worst Pass Defenses
Philadelphia 285.3
Minnesota 281.9
Denver 274.3
Washington 256.7
Jacksonville 256.5
Detroit 255.8
NY Jets 254.9
Oakland 250.2
St. Louis 248.9
Green Bay 246.8

Red Rover, Red Rover

Despite the Sunday snowstorm in the NFL last week, they did it again.

We’re talking about the wildly successful ‘OVER’ plays on the pro football card with 11 of the 16 games going 'over' the number.

The average games went ‘OVER’ by +8.9 points. It was easily the highest scoring week of the season as there were 85 touchdowns on Sunday (an average 6.1 TD’s per games).

Last week’s four non-conference game produced a 3-1 winning tally for ‘OVER’ players, moving the season-to-date record to a mind-blowing 44-14 ‘OVER’ in these games, including 23-4 ‘OVER’ the last seven weeks.

This week’s non-conference situations are:
Arizona at Tennessee
Chicago at Cleveland
New York Jets at Carolina
Baltimore at Detroit

College Football Bowl Stat of The Week

Texas Tech was 0-5 both SU and ATS against fellow bowl teams this season.

[TheGame]

With three weeks left until the NFL playoffs begin, now is the time to start looking for value when it comes to Super Bowl futures.

Out-of-nowhere Super Bowl winners like the New York Giants, Green Bay Packers, and Baltimore Ravens have been the trend recently, as the NFL becomes more and more about who is hot in January.

Here are some underdogs that might make you look smart at your Super Bowl party this year as you have them to win the big game with tasty odds to boot:

Kansas City Chiefs (10-3, 1st in AFC Wild Card): +3,000 to win Super Bowl

The Kansas City Chiefs may have lost three times to AFC West opponents in 2013, but they are still the second best team in the AFC in what is a down year in the conference.

Playing on the road will be a challenge for the Chiefs. But with one of the best running backs in the league in Jamaal Charles, a steady veteran QB in Alex Smith and a quality defense, the Chiefs could be dangerous if they get rolling heading into the Wild Card.

Cincinnati Bengals (9-4, 1st in AFC North): +1,200

Don't look now but the Bengals are red hot heading into December. A win in Week 14 gave them their third straight win and got Cincinnati another step closer to clinching the AFC North title. With the Patriots banged up and history going against Peyton Manning (the last QB who won the Super Bowl at Manning's age was John Elway), there is a very good chance we see another Ravens-like run in the AFC.

Cincy won't give you great odds at 12/1 which is a drawback, but it might be the best bet outside of the big favorites thanks to one of the most talented teams in franchise history. In a down year where everyone is hurt, it could finally be the Bengals’ year.

Arizona Cardinals/Philadelphia Eagles (8-5 2nd in NFC Wild Card), 30/1 (8-5 1st in NFC East): +6,000/+2,500

In a playoff pool that will have the Seahawks or Saints likely playing two games at home on their way as favorites to the NFC Championship, a dark horse is much less likely to emerge from the pack and topple those rock-solid home teams. Mix in the 49ers and the Panthers and it would take a miraculous effort to make a run to the Super Bowl.

If you are going to take a non-favorite in the NFC you might as well go long and you can't go wrong with two teams with electric wide receivers who have been dangerous when things have been going well this season.

Chip Kelly has Philly playing to its level that was shown at the start of the season and Nick Foles appears to be the right fit at QB while Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald have turned back the clock to keep Arizona floating in the tough NFC West. The Eagles are the safer bet of the two (moved from 60/1 to 25/1 after Dallas' loss Monday), but the Cardinals have shocked the world with the help of Fitzgerald before. At 60/1 it’s worth a look, but it’s the long shot of the bunch.

[TheGame]

Washington @ Atlanta

The Redskins are 5-10 ATS as underdogs of 3½ to 9½ points, 3-7 ATS as road dogs of 3½ to 7 points, 1-8 ATS versus NFC opponents, 1-9 ATS as an underdog overall, 5-12-1 ATS after a double digit loss at home, but they’re 9-0 ATS as an underdog of of 4 points or more versus a team with a losing record. Atlanta is 5-1 ATS versus NFC East opponents, 7-3 ATS in December, 6-3 ATS in the last 4 weeks of the regular season and 5-0 ATS at home with revenge versus a losing team.

San Francisco @ Tampa Bay

The 49ers are 34-16 ATS overall, 16-6 ATs as favorites of 3½ to 9½ points, 25-14 ATS as a favorite overall, 5-1 ATS as road favorites of 3½ to 7 points, 22-14 ATS versus NFC opponents, 23-10 ATS when playing on grass, but they’re just 3-6 ATS the last 4 weeks of the season, 1-9-1 ATS versus teams with a winning percentage of .333 or less after playing Seattle and 0-7 ATS before playing on Monday night. Tampa Bay is 2-9 ATS in December, 5-10 ATS as an underdog of 3½ to 9½ points, but they’re 5-1 ATS as non-divisional home dogs off a straight up win. Note in this series that the home team is 7-1 ATS the last 8 meetings.

Arizona @ Tennessee

The Cardinals are 10-5 ATS when the posted line is 3 points or less, 7-3 ATS versus losing teams in the second half of the season, 9-4 ATS in December, 4-1 ATS versus AFC opponents, 5-1 ATs after playing the Rams and 6-2 ATS before facing Seattle. Tennessee is 3-8 ATS in the month of December, 10-26 ATS versus winning teams including 3-13 lately, 41-21 ATS versus NFC opponents, 10-4 ATS versus NFC West Opponents, but they’re just 1-3 straight up and ATS at home versus NFC lately.

New Orleans @ St Louis

The Saints are 16-8 ATS as a favorite of 3½ to 9½ points, 23-12 ATS as a favorite overall, 10-4 ATS versus losing teams, 8-3 ATS in the month of December, 21-8 ATS when playing in a dome, but they’re 1-5 ATS on the road versus NFC West opponents. St Louis is 2-7 ATS versus NFC opponents, 6-12 ATS as underdogs of 3½ to 9½ points, 3-7 ATS overall as an underdog, 18-37-1 ATS after scoring 15 points or less and 3-11 ATS as a home dog coming off a divisional game.

Seattle @ NY Giants

The Seahawks are 8-0 ATS as favorites of 3½ to 9½ points, 32-14 ATS overall, 8-4 ATS in the favorite role, 26-9 ATS versus NFC opponents, 22-11 ATS when playing on turf and 10-1 ATS in the month of December. On the flip side Seattle is 1-9 ATS after facing San Francisco and 2-9 ATS as a road favorite after a divisional game. The Giants are 13-6 ATS versus winning teams, 13-8 ATS as an underdog, 4-0 ATS at home with revenge off back to back road games and 7-2 ATS at home after playing an AFC opponent versus a team with a winning record. However, the Giants are just 2-4 ATS at home this season and 2-5 ATS when playing on turf.

Chicago @ Cleveland

The Bears are 1-8 ATS in the month of December, 7-11 ATS versus losing teams including 0-5 the last 5 and 5-15-1 ATS overall including just 2-7-1 ATS their last 10. On the plus side Chicago is 4-1 ATS after facing Dallas and 6-1 ATS in the first of back to back road games versus an opponent playing with revenge. The Browns are are 12-5 ATS after 2 or more straight up losses, 6-3 ATS in the final 4 weeks of the regular season and 8-3-1 ATS versus winning teams. However, the Browns are 0-8 ATS at home before playing back to back road games, 1-7 ATS at home versus NFC opponents and 1-3 ATS before facing the Jets.

Houston @ Indianapolis

The Texans are 5-14 ATS when playing under a dome, 11-21 ATS on turf, 3-6 ATS in the last 4 weeks of the regular season, 2-7 ATS when playing on the road, 2-8 ATS against winning teams1-4 ATS in the second of back to back divisional games, but they’re 9-4 ATS after a divisional game. Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS as a favorite of 3½ to 9½ points, 16-5 ATS when playing in December, 11-2 ATS versus winning teams and 12-4 ATS when playing at home. However, the Colts are 0-6 ATS at home versus an opponent with a winning percentage of .400 or less. Note in this series that the home team is 6-1 ATS the last 7 meetings.

Buffalo @ Jacksonville

The Bills are 6-15 ATS playing on the road, 1-4 ATS versus AFC South opponents, 4-11 ATS against losing teams, 3-8 ATS in the month of December and 1-9 ATS as road favorites off a loss of 13 points or more. On the flip side Buffalo is 8-1 ATS in the second of back to back road games. Jacksonville is 18-25 ATS overall, 7-14 ATS when playing at home, 1-4 ATS versus AFC East opponents, 1-5 ATS off a divisional win, but they’re 6-1 ATS as home dogs of 6 points or less versus a non-divisional opponent with revenge. Note in this series that Buffalo is 7-3 ATS the last 10, but the underdog is 5-2 ATS the last 7 meetings.

New England @ Miami

The Patriots are 1-5 ATS on the road, 3-6 ATS versus AFC opponents, 3-6 ATS in the month of December, but they’re slao 5-1 ATS the week before playing Baltimore and 3-0 ATS in the first of back to back road games. Miami is 15-7 ATS when the line is 3 points or less, 6-2 ATS as an underdog, 4-2 ATS as an underdog of 3 points or less, 6-3 ATS versus AFC opponents, 7-3 ATS in the month of December and 6-1 ATS as an underdog of 7 points or less versus divisional opponentswith a winning record. On the flip side Miami is just 1-6 ATS after facing Pittsburgh. Take note that the underdog in Miami games is 49-21 ATS.

Philadelphia @ Minnesota

The Eagles are 3-8 ATS as favorites of 3½ to 9½ points, 2-6 ATS versus NFC North opponents, 2-7 ATS on the road after back to back home games, but they’re also 5-1 ATS on the road this season and 6-3 ATS overall versus NFC opponents. The Vikings are 12-6 ATS as underdogs of 3½ to 9½ points, 18-11 ATS overall as an underdog, 5-1 ATS as a home dog, 4-1 ATS before facing an AFC opponent, 8-3 ATS in the month of December and 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 6 points or less versus an opponent off a straight up win. In this series Philadelphia is 8-2 ATS the last 10 meetings.

NY Jets @ Carolina

The Jets are 7-13 ATS on the road, 10-15 ATS in the underdog role and 0-4 ATS as a road dog of 4 points or more versus a non-divisional opponent. However, the Jets are 9-3 ATS when playing on grass and 4-1 ATS as underdogs of 7 points or more. carolina is 14-8 ATS at home including 5-1 ATS at home this year, 71-38 ATS versus losing teams, 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or more, 47-22 ATS versus losing teams in the second half of the season and 50-26 ATS in the month of December. Note the home team in this series is 5-0 ATS the last 5 meetings.

Kansas City @ Oakland

The Chiefs are 5-1 ATS on the road, 6-11 ATS in the favorite role, 7-11 ATS versus losing teams, 4-9 in the month of December and 1-12 ATS as a favorite versus a divisional opponent. On the plus side Kansas City is 8-2 ATS when playing in Oakland and 12-4 ATS in the second of back to back road games. The Raiders are 9-13 ATS at home, 54-69 ATS versus divisional opponents, 3-8-1 ATS in the month December, but they’re 7-0 ATS after an ATS loss and 5-1 ATS off a straight up loss. Note in this series that the road team is 21-7-1 ATS and the underdog is 11-2 ATS the last 13 meetings.

Green Bay @ Dallas

The Packers are 3-7 ATS versus NFC opponents, 1-5 ATS versus NFC East opponents, 0-4 ATS as a non-divisional underdog, but they’re 6-0 ATS the week before facing Pittsburgh. The Cowboys are 6-2 ATS versus NFC opponents, 6-3 ATS when playing on turf, but just 3-6 ATS in the month of December and 1-7 ATS as favorites versus an opponent off a straight up win. Note in this series that the home team is 9-1 ATS the last 10 meetings and the favorite is 8-2 ATS the last 10, but also note the underdog in Dallas games a whooping 38-13 ATS.

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh

The Bengals are 17-9 ATS road favorites of 3 points or less, 7-3 ATS in the month of December, 15-6-1 ATS overall and 11-5 ATS versus AFC opponents. However, Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS as divisional road favorites, 1-4 ATS on the road before back to back home games and 1-4 ATS before playing Minnesota. The Steelers are 19-26 ATS overall, 2-7 ATS in the final 4 weeks of the regular season, 65-46 ATS in the underdog role, 86-62 ATS versus divisional opponents, 10-1 ATS as a dog off a straight up loss, 5-1 ATS playing with double revenge versus a divisional opponent and 8-3 ATS in the second of back to back home games playing with revenge. Note in this series that the road team 16-7-1 ATS, Pittsburgh is 10-4 ATS the last 14 and note the home team in Cincinnati games is on a 12-2-1 ATS run.

Baltimore @ Detroit

The Ravens are 2-8 ATS in the month of December, 6-11 ATS off 2 or more straight up wins2-4 ATS on the road and 2-6 ATS on the road on Monday night after a win. However, Baltimore is 8-3 ATS before facing New England, 14-5 ATS versus winning teams and 10-2 ATS versus winning teams the second half of the season. The Lions are 9-17 ATS playing under a dome, 8-16 ATS versus winning teams, 2-12 ATS versus winning teams the second half of he season, 6-11 ATS as favorites of 3½ to 9½ points, 11-18 ATS verall as a favorite, 3-13 ATS after allowing 30+ points and 1-4 ATS as a home favorite versus AFC opponents.

[TheGame]

2-Minute Handicap
Playbook.com

Thursday, December 12

San Diego Series: 6-0-1 L7 A… 1-4 Thurs vs. .500 > opp
DENVER 4-1 L5 2nd BB H… 3-12-1 div HF < 17 pts off non div game

Sunday, December 15

Washington 9-0 dogs > 4 pts vs < .500 non div opp… 4-0 L4 A off 3H… 3-0 L3 bef Cowboys
ATLANTA Series: 3-0 L3… 5-0 H w /revenge vs < .500 opp… 1-6 L7 after NFC West

San Francisco Series: 3-1 L4… 6-1 L7 A off BB H… 1-8 before Mondays
TAMPA BAY 3-9 H bef BB A… 2-7 H vs. .600 > opp… 3-7 2nd BB H

Arizona 4-1 L5 A vs AFC… 5-1 L6 after Rams… 6-2 bef Seahawks
TENNESSEE 8-3 2nd BB non-div games… 1-3 L4 SUATS H vs NFC opp

New Orleans 1-6 L7 .500 > 1st BB A vs < .500 opp … 1-3 L4 RF after Panthers
ST. LOUIS Series: 4-1 L5… 3-11 HD's off div game… 0-6 O/U after Cardinals

Seattle 16-3 L19 vs non-div NFC … 1-9 L10 after 49ers… 2-9 L11 RF off div game
NY GIANTS Series: 1-3 L4 H… 4-0 L4 H w/ rev off BB A… 7-2 L9 H vs .500 > opp off AFC

Chicago 5-1 after Mon game… 6-1 L7 1st off BB A vs opp w/ rev… 4-1 L5 after Cowboys
CLEVELAND 0-8 H bef BB A… 1-7 L8 H vs NFC opp… 1-3 L4 bef NY Jets

Houston 9-0 L9 after Jaguars… 11-2 < .500 RD off A… 1-4 L5 2nd BB div
INDIANAPOLIS

Buffalo Series: 3-1 L4… 8-1 2nd of BB A… 6-1-1 RF’s Games 13-16
JACKSONVILLE 6-1 HD’s < 6 pts vs non-div opp w/ rev… 18-5 bef Titans

New England 3-0 L3 1st BB A… 5-1 L6 bef Ravens… 3-1 L4 after Browns… 1-4 L5 A off 1 H
MIAMI 6-0 L6 HD… 6-1 dogs < 7 pts vs .500 > div opp… 1-6 L7 after Steelers

Philadelphia 9-1 L10 bef Bears… 2-6 vs NFC North… 2-7 L9 A off BB H
MINNESOTA Series: 2-8 L10… 5-1 L6 HD… 4-1 L5 bef AFC opp

NY Jets 0-4 RD 4 > pts vs non div opp… 4-1 L5 dogs 7 > pts… 1-4 L5 off BB H on NFC road
CAROLINA Series: 3-0 L3 H… 6-0 HF 7 > pts… 5-0 L5 vs <.500 opp… 1-6 after Saints

Kansas City Series: 1-5 L6… 12-4 L16 2nd BB A… 1-12 L13 favs vs div opp… 6-0 O/U RF 5 < pts
OAKLAND Series: 8-2 L10 H… 6-2 L8 H off BB A… 1-3 L4 after NY Jets… 2-5 L7 HD (3-1 L4 HD vs div)

Green Bay 6-0 L6 bef Steelers… 4-0 L4 after Falcons… 0-4 L4 non-div NFC dogs
DALLAS Series: 6-0 L6 H… 7-1 L8 after Bears… 2-17 favs vs non-div opp Game 13 >

Cincinnati 4-1 L5 after Colts… 0-6 div RF’s… 1-4 L5 A bef BB H… 1-4 L5 bef Vikings
PITTSBURGH Series: 4-1 L5… 5-1 L6 w/ DBL rev vs div opp… 8-3 2nd BB H w/ rev… 1-5 L6 vs. 500 > opp after Dolphins

Monday December 16

Baltimore 8-3 L11 bef Patriots… 4-0 L4 vs NFC … 2-6 A off win Monday nights
DETROIT Series: 4-0 L4 H… 6-1 L7 after Eagles… 1-4 HF vs AFC opp… 0-6 O/U Mondays

ABBREVIATIONS LEGEND: For the most part, results are presented in this order: Series, Good Results, Bad Results, Over/Under Totals and Coaches Results. All team and coaches results are Against The Spread and pertain to preseason - unless noted otherwise. (NOTE: * = Check earlier result this season for similar situation and/or line in this game). ATS = Against The Spread, SU = Straight Up, A = Away, H = Home, Dog = Underdog, Fav = Favorite, L = Last, N = Neutral. OVER/UNDER results in Over (first) / Under (second) sequence. Site Numbers (Home One, Home Two; Away One, Away Two) designate 1st or 2nd home or road games of preseason. Dual team or coaches results - Straight-Up and Against The Spread - are separated with a ' / '. Asterisk * = check team previous game for possible similar result.

[TheGame]

Washington at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
Washington: 36-20 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
Atlanta: 1-13 ATS in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread

San Francisco at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
San Francisco: 16-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Tampa Bay: 6-0 OVER in home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game

Arizona at Tennessee, 4:25 ET
Arizona: 18-6 UNDER as a road favorite
Tennessee: 41-21 ATS in non-conference games

New Orleans at St Louis, 4:25 ET
New Orleans: 21-8 ATS in dome games
St Louis: 34-54 ATS off a road loss

Seattle at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
Seattle: 7-0 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
NY Giants: 19-8 OVER in home games off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more

Chicago at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Chicago: N/A
Cleveland: N/A

Houston at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Houston: 3-10 ATS in all games
Indianapolis: 6-0 ATS off a road loss

Buffalo at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 9-1 ATS off a road loss
Jacksvonille: 9-1 UNDER in home games against conference opponents

New England at Miami, 1:00 ET
New England: 21-7 ATS in road games off 3 or more consecutive overs
Miami: 9-21 ATS in home games off an upset win as a road underdog

Philadelphia at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 6-15 ATS after playing a game at home
Minnesota: 11-3 ATS after playing their last game on the road

NY Jets at Carolina, 4:05 ET
NY Jets: 2-12 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Caolina: 9-1 ATS off a road loss

Kansas City at Oakland, 4:05 ET
Kansas City: 15-4 UNDER after playing their last game on the road
Oakland: 10-2 UNDER off 4 or more consecutive overs

Green Bay at Dallas, 4:25 ET
Green Bay: N/A
Dallas: N/A

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, 8:30 ET
Cincinnati: 60-88 ATS versus division opponents
Pittsburgh: 54-33 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread

[TheGame]

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. MIAMI
New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 9 games at home
Miami is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New England

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. MINNESOTA
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Minnesota is 3-10-1 SU in its last 14 games ,

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games
San Francisco is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games when playing San Francisco
Tampa Bay is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games when playing San Francisco

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. ATLANTA
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing at home against Washington

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. CLEVELAND
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Chicago's last 15 games
Cleveland is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Jacksonville's last 10 games at home
Jacksonville is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games at home

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. NY GIANTS
Seattle is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games
NY Giants are 3-5-1 ATS in their last 9 games when playing Seattle
NY Giants are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
Houston is 4-19 SU in its last 23 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing Houston
Indianapolis is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home

4:05 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. OAKLAND
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games
Oakland is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Oakland is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home

4:05 PM
NY JETS vs. CAROLINA
NY Jets are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games
NY Jets are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games
Carolina is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games

4:25 PM
ARIZONA vs. TENNESSEE
Arizona is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Arizona is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Tennessee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

4:25 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New Orleans's last 9 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 7 of St. Louis's last 9 games when playing at home against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 6 of St. Louis's last 9 games when playing New Orleans

4:25 PM
GREEN BAY vs. DALLAS
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Green Bay's last 15 games when playing Dallas
Green Bay is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 10 games at home

8:30 PM
CINCINNATI vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Pittsburgh's last 17 games at home

8:40 PM
BALTIMORE vs. DETROIT
Baltimore is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
Baltimore is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore

[TheGame]

NFL Football Trends - Season to Date

Straight Up Trends (Won Loss Tie)

Category	Record	Percent
Away Teams	80-128-1	38.46%
Home Teams	128-80-1	61.54%
Favorites	147-61-1	70.67%
Dogs	61-147-1	29.33%
Away Favorites	45-26-0	63.38%
Away Dogs	35-102-1	25.55%
Home Favorites	102-35-1	74.45%
Home Dogs	26-45-0	36.62%

Against The Spread Trends (ATS)

Category	Record	Percent
Away Teams	97-109-3	47.09%
Home Teams	109-97-3	52.91%
Favorites	110-96-3	53.40%
Dogs	96-110-3	46.60%
Away Favorites	36-35-0	50.70%
Away Dogs	61-74-3	45.19%
Home Favorites	74-61-3	54.81%
Home Dogs	35-36-0	49.30%

Over vs. Under Trends

Category	Overs	Percent	Unders	Percent
Overtime Games	10	83.33%	2	16.67%
Non-Overtime Games	104	53.33%	91	46.67%
All Games	114	55.07%	93	44.93%

[TheGame]

NFL Prop Shop

Week 15's Best Player Prop Bets

Sean Murphy isn’t satisfied with just betting spreads and totals. He’s opening the door to the NFL Prop Shop, giving you his best player prop picks for Week 15.

Most passing yards

Tom Brady (New England Patriots) vs. Ryan Tannehill (Miami Dolphins)

Tom Brady was held to only 116 passing yards in the first meeting between these two teams this season, and while we can expect him to improve on that number here, I'm not convinced that he'll outgun Ryan Tannehill.

The Dolphins second-year quarterback has thrown for at least 200 yards in six consecutive games, and the majority of his best performances have come at home this season - most recently racking up 310 passing yards against the Panthers in Week 12.

The Patriots defense has regressed lately, allowing well north of 12 yards per pass play over their last three games. This isn't an ideal matchup for them to 'get right'.

Take: Tannehill

Alex Smith (Kansas City Chiefs) vs. Matt McGloin (Oakland Raiders)

The Chiefs offense has been rolling along lately, but I won't be surprised if they face some resistance in the Black Hole on Sunday afternoon.

Kansas City scored a whopping 45 points in last week's win over the Redskins, but QB Alex Smith threw for only 137 yards. This is still a run-first team, and that gameplan isn't likely to change against a Raiders defense that has allowed 4.4 yards per rush over its last three games.

Raiders QB Matt McGloin has thrown for 260, 255, and 245 yards in his last three games. As strong as the Chiefs 'D' has been for most of the season, it has struggled recently, allowing 14.4 yards per pass play over the last three games.

Take: McGloin

Most rushing yards

Frank Gore (San Francisco 49ers) vs. Bobby Rainey (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Frank Gore is coming off one of his best performances of the season, rushing for 110 yards on 17 carries last Sunday against Seattle. Given the fact that he had topped out at 48 rushing yards over his previous three games, I'm not expecting a repeat effort here.

Note that Gore has been held to 71 yards or less on the ground in the 49ers last four road contests.

Bucs RB Bobby Rainey has been a dominant force at home, gaining 290 yards on 52 carries over his last two games in Tampa. The 49ers defense will obviously pose a significant challenge, but I believe Rainey will be up to the task.

Take: Rainey

Most pass receptions

Doug Baldwin (Seattle Seahawks) vs. Hakeem Nicks (New York Giants)

I simply feel that Hakeem Nicks will be given more opportunities than Doug Baldwin on Sunday, and can't ignore the plus-money return being offered.

Baldwin had only four pass targets and three catches in last Sunday's game in San Francisco. He's had more than five catches in a game on only two occasions this season. This week, I'm expecting the Seahawks to show a stronger commitment to the run.

Nicks burst back onto the scene for the Giants last Sunday, catching five passes for 135 yards. He's been fairly consistent this year, hauling in at least four catches in eight of the 12 games he's appeared in.

Take: Nicks

[TheGame]

Sunday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (10-3) at MIAMI DOLPHINS (7-6)

Sportsbook.ag Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: New England -2, Total: 45.5

The Patriots have to deal with yet another key injury when they try to wrap up their 10th AFC East title in 11 years on Sunday visiting the Dolphins.

Last week, New England pulled off an incredible comeback with 13 points in the final 1:01 to defeat the Browns 27-26, but lost All-Pro TE Rob Gronkowski to a torn ACL. Miami also suffered a key loss last week with top RB Lamar Miller suffering a concussion, but he is expected to return for Sunday's game. If Miller cannot play, backup RB Daniel Thomas proved more than capable of handling the workload with 105 rushing yards in his team’s 34-28 win in the Pittsburgh snow. Despite gaining just 252 total yards in their last meeting, the Patriots were still able to beat the Dolphins for the seventh straight time with a 27-17 victory in Week 8, erasing a 17-3 halftime deficit. New England is 22-5 ATS (82%) versus teams with a win pct. of 51% to 60% in the second half of the season since 1992, but Miami falls into the category of underdogs (or pick) in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.4 YPP) after 8+ games, after allowing 400+ total yards in their previous game, who are 110-66 ATS (63%) since 1983. In addition to losing Gronkowski, the Patriots have five other key players considered questionable for this game in CB Alfonzo Dennard (knee), OT Marcus Cannon (ankle), TE Michael Hoomanawanui (knee) and WRs Aaron Dobson (foot) and Kenbrell Thompkins (hip). Miami just placed CBs Dimitri Patterson (groin) and R.J. Stanford (leg) on injured reserve this week, and another cornerback, Jamar Taylor, is questionable with a hamstring injury.

The Patriots offense ranks fifth in the league in scoring (26.8 PPG) and eighth in total offense (386 YPG). However, starting with the win over Miami in Week 8, they are averaging 32.8 PPG on 438 total YPG in the past six games. QB Tom Brady has led this resurgence with 1,977 passing yards (330 YPG), 13 TD and 4 INT during this stretch. Brady has also had great success against the Dolphins in his Hall of Fame career, posting a 17-6 record with 4,942 passing yards (215 YPG), 40 TD and 19 INT in 23 starts versus his AFC East foe. When Brady was held to 116 passing yards in the win over Miami on Oct. 27, he did not have the services of RB Shane Vereen, who has become Brady's favorite target in the passing game. Vereen has 40 receptions for 373 yards in his five games this season, including a dozen catches for 153 yards in last week's win.

With TE Rob Gronkowski out and WRs Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins both questionable, Brady will lean more heavily on possession receivers Julian Edelman (775 rec. yards, 5 TD) and Danny Amendola (448 rec. yards, 2 TD). New England's rushing offense has been pretty average this year (4.2 YPC, 15th in NFL), but was able to grind up 152 yards on 4.1 YPC in the Week 8 win over Miami. RB Stevan Ridley (611 rush yards, 7 TD) led the way that day with 79 yards on 5.6 YPC and a touchdown, but his role has been reduced due to fumble problems, as he's now splitting carries with RB LeGarrette Blount (460 rush yards, 3 TD). Defensively, the rash of season-ending injuries the Patriots have suffered (LB Jerod Mayo and DTs Vince Wilfork and Tommy Kelly) are a big reason why the team ranks 24th in total defense (372 YPG) and 31st in rushing defense (136 YPG). They are also 31st in third-down defense (44%) and subpar in the red zone (58% touchdown rate, 20th in NFL). But New England has allowed only 22.1 PPG (10th in league), and a lot of that has to do with its 24 takeaways which rank second in the AFC.

Miami's offense has struggled for most of the season, ranking 24th in total offense (325 YPG) and 21st in scoring offense (22.0 PPG). Its red-zone efficiency (55% touchdown rate, 17th in league) and third-down offense (36%, 22nd in NFL) are both below average as well. QB Ryan Tannehill (3,315 pass yards, 6.8 YPA, 20 TD, 14 INT) threw a pair of touchdown passes within the first 20 minutes of the Week 8 matchup in Foxboro, but he was atrocious the rest of the way, finishing 22-of-42 (52%) for 192 yards (4.6 YPA) with two interceptions and six sacks taken. But he has been much better since that game, completing 67% of his passes for 258 YPG (6.9 YPA), 9 TD and 5 INT. He's done this by spreading the wealth mainly to WR Brian Hartline (team-best 67 catches and 855 yards), TE Charles Clay (team-high 6 TD) and WR Mike Wallace (762 rec. yards, 3 TD).

Miami's rushing offense has just 96 YPG this year (23rd in NFL), but is gaining a solid 4.3 yards per carry (14th in league) thanks in large part to Tannehill's 6.0 YPC average on his 37 rushing attempts. Defensively, this club allows only 21.2 PPG (9th in NFL) thanks to a strong red-zone defense (51% touchdown rate, 10th in league). The rushing defense has struggled with 119 YPG allowed (23rd in NFL), but the pass rush has been fierce all season with 40 sacks (5th in NFL). Miami has also been opportunistic with 22 takeaways, forcing at least one turnover in all 13 games.

NEW YORK JETS (6-7) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (9-4)

Sportsbook.ag Kickoff: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
Line: Carolina -11, Total: 40.5

After being beaten soundly last week, the Panthers look for a big bounce-back effort Sunday versus the Jets.

New York scored a season-high 37 points in a 10-point win versus Oakland last week, but is just 1-5 SU (2-4 ATS) on the road this year, where it has been outscored by an average of 31 to 13. Carolina fell 31-13 in New Orleans last Sunday night, but has destroyed its past five visitors by an average score of 31 to 10, outgaining them by 431 total yards with a +8 turnover margin. The Jets have the worst turnover margin in the NFL at minus-18 with rookie QB Geno Smith producing 24 miscues (20 INT, 4 FL). New York holds a 3-2 SU edge all-time in this series, but the Panthers are 3-0 ATS at home versus the Jets.

Most of the betting trends points towards Carolina, like its 9-1 ATS record (90%) in the past two seasons after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games, or its 55-22 ATS mark (71%) versus bad defenses (24+ PPG allowed) since 1992. But New York is 3-1 ATS (75%) as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points over the past three seasons, including 2-0 ATS this year. The Jets could be missing both top CB Antonio Cromartie (concussion, questionable) and WR Stephen Hill (knee, doubtful), while the Panthers will be missing RB Jonathan Stewart (knee).

The Jets' offense has been pretty miserable with the league's second-fewest points (17.4 PPG) and third-fewest yards (308 YPG). Their inefficiency in both the red zone (47% touchdown rate, 28th in NFL) and on third down (35%, 24th in league) has not helped the cause. QB Geno Smith has had a few strong games in his rookie year, but still has more than twice as many interceptions (20) as touchdowns (9), completing only 55% of his passes for 2,475 yards (7.0 YPA). He's also been sacked 39 times, but has been able to score four rushing touchdowns. In his six road games, Smith has thrown for only 1,091 yards (182 YPG, 6.7 YPA) with 4 TD and 12 INT, while taking 23 sacks. No New York receiver has scored more than three touchdowns through the air, and WR Jeremy Kerley's pedestrian numbers lead the team in both receptions (32) and receiving yards (388).

The Jets have stayed in the playoff hunt due to a quality ground game that ranks 11th in the league in rushing yards (126 YPG) and 13th in yards per carry (4.3 YPC). Smith ran for 50 of the team's 143 yards last week on just five carries, while bruising RB Chris Ivory picked up 76 yards on 18 attempts (4.2 YPC) with a touchdown. Ivory (639 rush yards, 4.4 YPC, 3 TD) has been more effective than speedier RB Bilal Powell (530 rush yards, 3.8 YPC, 1 TD) which is why he gets the bulk of the rushing workload. Although New York's defense is allowing 25.9 PPG (T-23rd in NFL), a lot of that is due to poor field position that the turnover-prone offense has put the unit in. The Jets rank 11th in the league in total defense (338 YPG) and 10th in yards per play (5.1), and have been nasty to opposing ball carriers with 83 rushing YPG allowed (2nd in league) on an NFL-best 3.1 YPC allowed. They have also gotten key stops in both the red zone (49% touchdown rate, T-5th in league) and on third down (35%, 8th in NFL). New York has done this despite forcing only 10 turnovers for the season (2nd-fewest in league).

Carolina has been excellent at home, going 5-1 (SU and ATS) and outscoring opponents by a hefty 16.2 PPG, with 26.7 PPG scored and just 10.5 PPG allowed. But overall, the offense hasn't been great, ranking 29th in passing offense (192 YPG), 27th in yards per play (5.0) and 26th in total offense (321 YPG). But the Panthers have been able to score a respectable 22.9 PPG (17th in NFL) because they rank fourth in the league in both red-zone efficiency (63% touchdown rate) and on third downs (46%). QB Cam Newton has posted average passing numbers (62% completions, 2,776 yards, 6.9 YPA, 20 TD, 11 INT), but has been able to make big plays with his legs all year, helping his team control the football for 33:06 (2nd in NFL). His 495 rushing yards (5.6 YPC) and six touchdowns have contributed greatly to his team's 129 rushing YPG (T-8th in league). With RB Jonathan Stewart (180 rush yards, 3.8 YPC) out, the bulk of the rushing workload will go to RB DeAngelo Williams (662 rush yards, 4.0 YPC, 2 TD) and bruising RB Mike Tolbert (313 rush yards, 3.9 YPC, 4 TD). This ground-heavy attack has kept turnovers to a minimum, as the team has committed only seven giveaways in its past nine games.

The Panthers defense didn't have many answers for Drew Brees and the Saints last week, but this unit is still among the best in the NFL, leading the league in scoring defense (14.5 PPG allowed), rushing defense (79 YPG) and first downs allowed (16.8 per game). It is also tied for first in red-zone defense (39% touchdown rate), second in total defense (296 YPG) and fifth in both third-down defense (34%) and passing defense (217 YPG). This unit has also been effective in taking the football away, forcing multiple turnovers in nine of 13 games this season.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (6-6-1) at DALLAS COWBOYS (7-6)

Sportsbook.ag Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Line: Dallas -7, Total: 49.5

Two teams trying to keep playoff hopes alive collide Sunday when the Cowboys host the Packers.

Green Bay is 0-6 ATS (1-4-1 SU) since QB Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone and will likely need QB Matt Flynn to start again, as Rodgers is doubtful to be cleared to play for this matchup. Dallas QB Tony Romo didn’t play well in Monday’s 45-28 loss in Chicago (11-for-20, 104 yards), but he still threw 3 TD passes and no picks, giving him 27 TD and just 7 INT this year. Romo has been especially good at home where he's thrown for 285 YPG, 14 TD and 4 INT and has led his team to a 5-1 SU record (4-2 ATS). The Packers have lost nine straight visits (1-8 ATS) to Dallas, but hasn’t played in Big D since 2007. When these teams last met in 2010, Green Bay won 45-7 behind 289 passing yards and 3 TD from Rodgers, while Romo was sidelined with an injury. Both teams have favorable betting trends for this matchup, as the Packers fall into the category of underdogs after allowing 17+ points in the first half of two straight games against an opponent after a double-digit loss, who are 57-27 ATS (68%) since 1983.

However, favorites like the Cowboys who are terrible on defense (370+ YPG allowed) facing a poor defense (335 to 370 YPG allowed) after 8+ games are 41-18 ATS (70%) in the past 10 seasons. In addition to Rodgers' injury, the Packers are still without top WR Randall Cobb (fibula) who was supposed to be back by this point, while both RB Eddie Lacy (ankle) and LB Brad Jones (leg) are questionable for this game. The Cowboys remain thin at linebacker with LB Bruce Carter (hamstring) doubtful and LB Justin Durant (hamstring) questionable, but LB Sean Lee (neck) is expected to play despite suffering what appeared to be a major injury last week. Starting CB Morris Claiborne (hamstring) is also questionable for Dallas.

With QB Aaron Rodgers unable to play, QB Matt Flynn expects to make his fourth straight start. After a miserable performance on Thanksgiving (10-for-20, 139 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 2 lost fumbles), Flynn played pretty well in last week's 22-21 win over the Falcons, completing 24-of-32 passes (75%) for 258 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. However, Flynn needs to get rid of the football quicker, as he has absorbed 12 sacks in these past two games. Flynn did a great job spreading the wealth in last week's win with seven different Packers getting multiple targets and only TE Andrew Quarless (seven targets) seeing more than five passes come his way.

Top RB Eddie Lacy (887 rush yards, 3.9 YPC, 7 TD) rolled his ankle in last week's win, but was able to return to the game and appears like he will be able to start on Sunday. If the rookie cannot go, backup RB James Starks (346 rush yards, 5.3 YPC, 3 TD) is certainly capable of carrying the workload. Defensively, the Packers have been below average, ranking 25th in the NFL in yards per play allowed (5.7) and rushing defense (123 YPG), while ranking 20th in scoring defense (25.1 PPG allowed) and 19th on third downs (39%). Its red-zone efficiency (55% touchdown rate, 15th in NFL) has been adequate, and after failing to force multiple turnovers in eight straight contests, this unit has generated six takeaways in the past two games.

Dallas averages just 328 total YPG (22nd in NFL) on offense, but has been able to post a hefty 27.5 PPG (T-3rd in league) because of an excellent red-zone efficiency of converting 71% of its trips into touchdowns (2nd in NFL). The team has been pass-heavy for most of the 2013 season with 235 passing YPG (15th in NFL) and just 94 rushing YPG (24th in league), but has made a concerted effort to pound the football over the past four weeks with 135 rushing YPG on a hefty 5.7 YPC. This includes 198 yards on 28 carries (7.1 YPC) in last week's loss in Chicago, when top RB DeMarco Murray (843 rush yards, 5.3 YPC, 7 TD) gained 146 yards on just 18 attempts (8.1 YPC). Murray has also been a valuable receiver out of the backfield with 41 catches, which ranks third on the team behind WR Dez Bryant (70 rec., 908 yards, 10 TD) and TE Jason Witten (55 rec., 632 yards, 7 TD).

This Cowboys defense continues to be gashed on a weekly basis though, ranking among the worst NFL defenses in several categories. They rank last in total defense (427 YPG allowed), last in passing defense (299 YPG), last in first downs allowed (24.9 per game) 28th in rushing defense (128 YPG), 28th on third downs (43%), 26th in red-zone defense (61% touchdown rate) and 26th in scoring defense (26.8 PPG). This unit has also not made enough big plays, with a mere four forced turnovers in the past four games combined.

[TheGame]

Sharp Moves - Week 15
By Mike Rose
VegasInsider.com

We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 14!

All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com as of Thursday morning.

Tampa Bay +5 - Most don't realize that Tampa Bay has been one of the best teams in the league over the course of the last five weeks. The Buccaneers are eager to prove they can take on one of the best teams in the league in this stretch, and they have the Niners here for the taking. It's natural for San Fran to lay an egg after winning last week against the Seahawks. It's tough to come down off of that massive high, and the sharp bettors agree with that sentiment.

Opening Line: Tampa Bay +5.5
Current Line: Tampa Bay +5
Public Betting Percentage: 72% on San Francisco

Houston +5.5 - It's just a play that doesn't make any sense in the world. The oddsmakers don't hang numbers nearly as high on Houston as they would with some of the other bad teams in the league, so why? The Texans, for one, have lost seven consecutive games by seven points or fewer, so making them more than a touchdown underdog seems a bit crazy. Teams with interim coaches due to coaches being fired have covered five games in a row. Indy has little to play for after already clinching the AFC South, knowing that it really can't do better than the fourth seed in the conference at this point. It would be fitting if Houston ended its longest losing streak in franchise history against the Colts, a team which it has never beaten on the road.

Opening Line: Houston +6
Current Line: Houston +5.5
Public Betting Percentage: 75% on Indianapolis

Buffalo -2 - It's not often we talk about favorites here on the sharp plays, but the Bills are definitely sharp. Why? Because Jacksonville makes a bunch of sense… almost too much sense. The Bills are coming off of two straight losses where they have turned the ball over a ton, and they really look like they have packed it in for the season. Jacksonville is flying high, and it is coming off of a win that had to feel like the Super Bowl against Houston. On top of that, the Jags have won four out of five, have played solid ball every week since their bye, and seem to have their acts together, and they had a long week of preparation for this one. Still, someone sees something in the Bills, because this line flat out isn't moving, and it's on a number where Jacksonville should be seeing a lot of action.

Opening Line: Buffalo -2
Current Line: Buffalo -2
Public Betting Percentage: 66% on Jacksonville

Pittsburgh +2.5 - We hate this play because Pittsburgh is literally always a public play. But in this case, the case for the playoff-bound Bengals is stronger than the case for the general public play known as the Steelers. Most figure that Pittsburgh has given up on the season, and that very well could be the case. Last season though, the Bengals spoiled the Steelers' season on their home field. Sharps are thinking that it might be time to repay the favor.

Opening Line: Pittsburgh +3
Current Line: Pittsburgh +2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 68% on Cincinnati

[TheGame]

Gridiron Angles - Week 15
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider.com

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

The Vikings are 0-10-1 ATS (-8.1 ppg) since Oct 30, 2006 if not more than a six-point dog, after a game in which they got a first down on less than 25% of their offensive plays

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

The Rams are 13-0-1 ATS (6.6 ppg) since October 24, 1999 in Sunday game vs a non-divisional opponent when they faced divisional opponents in each of the previous two weeks which weren’t the first two weeks of the season.

NFL PLAYER TREND:

Jimmy Graham is 11-0-1 ATS (6.0 ppg) since 2011 after a home win where he had at least 57 receiving yards.

NFL BIBLE ATS TREND:

The Panthers are 0-15 ATS (-13.5 ppg) since 2003 at home during the regular season after week three when hosting a team that has allowed fewer than 3.75 yards per carry season to date.

NFL BIBLE OU TREND:

The Dolphins are 0-11 OU (-10.6 ppg) since 2001 after a game where they scored at least 27 points and threw at least three passing touchdowns.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

The Cowboys are10-0 OU (12.2 ppg) since October 19, 1997 after losing on Monday Night Football.

NFL O/U SUPER SYSTEM:

Teams which had at least an 189 yard rusher last game are 26-45-2 OU.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

The Bengals are 0-15 OU (-12.0 ppg) since November 30, 2006 when the total is over 37 after they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last game.

PICK SIXTY SPORTS WEEKLY TIP:

Thursday games have a knack for spicing up the NFL’s playoff picture ahead of a busy weekend and San Diego’s upset win over Denver has certainly added some pressure to teams like Baltimore and Miami. Somehow the Jets and Titans still have a pulse, too, and each of those teams is getting points on Sunday against a more talented and equally desperate NFC foe. Tennessee returns from a disappointing road trip that ended with a 50-burger in Denver and given the situation, this could be a tough spot for the Titans to bounce back. 2010Home teams off three-straight road games are 6-12 SU/ATS the past three seasons and coming off a big divisional win, the Cards are in no position to take their foot off the gas. Arizona’s main competitors for the NFC Wild Card are San Francisco and Carolina who respectively are playing winnable game against the Bucs and Jets. Arizona owns the tie-breaker over Carolina by virtue of a Week 5 win. Including that game they’ve scored 20-plus points nine games straight (26.4 avg). Against a road weary Titans D who allows 24.5 on average, look for Bruce Arians to design a gameplan that gets the Cards in position for a ‘W’.

Pick: Take the Cardinals Team Total OVER 22 points

[TheGame]

Essential Betting Tidbits for Week 15 of NFL football

We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Sunday's NFL action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.

- Seattle's ballhawking defense will be licking its chops Sunday. The Seahawks are tied for second in the league with 28 takeaways, while their opponent - the New York Giants - lead the league with 34 turnovers.

- The Chicago Bears have troubles traveling to Cleveland. They've lost their last four visits at the Browns.

- In his last four games, Browns WR Josh Gordon has registered a mind-boggling 774 yards receiving.

- The Indianapolis Colts will look to keep the tradition of beating the Houston Texans at home. The Colts have are 11-0 all time against the Texans.

- Wade Phillips tipped Case Keenum to start versus Indy despite being pulled against the Jags. Keenum threw for a career-high 350 yards and three TDs versus the Colts in the previous meeting.

- The Jacksonville Jaguars have won three-straight games and have stopped turning the ball over. The Jags were minus-7 in the turnover department during their 0-8 start but are plus-five over the last five games.

- Courtesy of @ATSstats - When the Buffalo Bills played as a road fave in the month of December, they are 8-2 SU since 1996. Buffalo is -2.5 at Jacksonville Sunday.

- The Patriots have won seven straight against the Dolphins, but just seven of their last 13 meetings in South Beach under Belichick's watch.

- Dolphins RB Lamar Miller has struggled all season long, but had one of his best games in the first meeting with New England. jiller rushed for 89 yards on 18 carries in the 27-17 loss.

- Sunday's matchup between the Eagles and Vikings features two of the most talented backs in the NFL in Adrian Peterson and LeSean McCoy. Peterson (who is questionable) rushed for only 13 yards before exiting the game versus the Ravens last week, while McCoy rumbled in the snow for 217 in the 34-20 win over the Lions.

- Kirk Cousins will start at QB for the Redskins. The second-year pro is 12-of-25 for 107 yards and two picks in two appearances this season.

- Falcons QB Matt Ryan should look to TE Tony Gonzalez Sunday. Gonzalez had 13 catches for 123 yards and TD in last years meeting with the Redskins.

- The 49ers have cashed in for bettors while on the road this season. The Niners are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games (5-1 ATS on the road this season). San Fran is a 5-point road fave at Tampa Bay Sunday.

- Bucs linebacker Lavonte David is the only player in the league with at least 100 tackles, five interceptions and five sacks.

- The Oakland Raiders have the best rushing attack in the AFC with 134.4 yards per game.

- The Raiders host the Chiefs Sunday, where the Under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings. Sunday's total is currently 41.5.

- Carolina's defense is tough. But at home is on another level. The Panthers have allowed just five touchdowns in six home games this season.

- Such stats do not bode well for the poor New York Jets and QB Geno Smith. Smith has thrown for a combined 230 yards and five interceptions in his last two road games.

- Since Oct 1., Packers RB Eddie Lacy ranks third in the NFL with 836 rushing yards.

- The Cowboys are 11-4 in the last 15 matchups with the Green Bay Packers and are 6.5-point faves at home Sunday.

- New Orleans averages just 18.8 points on the road compared to 32.9 at home. Saints are 6.5-point faves at St. Louis Sunday.

- The Rams offense has been feeble of late, scoring just 23 points during a two-game losing skid.

- The Arizona Cardinals are tied for the best ATS record in the NFL at 9-4. They are tied with fellow NFC West teams Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers.

- The Titans are looking to avoid their first five-game home losing streak since 1996, when the franchise was still based in Houston.

- Bengals QB Andy Dalton has a QB rating of just 67.8 in five games versus the Steelers.

- The Steelers are 3-1 ATS against AFC North teams this season. They are 1.5-point home dogs against Cincy Sunday night.

[TheGame]

Patriots at Dolphins What bettors need to know

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+1, 45.5)

The New England Patriots will begin life without Rob Gronkowski for the second time this season as they attempt to clinch their fifth consecutive AFC East title and 10th in 11 years on Sunday when they visit the Miami Dolphins. The Patriots have rallied in each of their last three contests to post a dramatic victory - including last week's stirring 27-26 triumph over Cleveland despite seeing their star tight end suffer a gruesome season-ending knee injury. New England also played the comeback card in the first meeting with Miami, overcoming a two-touchdown halftime deficit en route to a 27-17 victory on Oct. 27.

The lone hiccup in the Patriots' divisional dominance came in 2008, when the Dolphins seized the title. Fast forward to the present, Miami has won two in a row and four of six to keep pace with Baltimore (7-6) for the AFC's final postseason berth - although the Ravens won a head-to-head contest earlier in the season. The Dolphins eclipsed the 30-point plateau for the first time in last week's 34-28 victory over Pittsburgh.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Miami opened +2.5 and is now +1. The total opened 45.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with a 25 percent chance of rain.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (10-3): Coach Bill Belichick was matter of fact when discussing the loss of Gronkowski, saying that "We've played a lot more of this season without him than with him." New England's offense sputtered a bit as it adjusted to his initial absence, which lasted the first six weeks of the campaign following offseason surgeries on his forearm and back. Tom Brady will likely need to continue to lean on wideout Julian Edelman (team-leading 76 receptions) as well as Shane Vereen and the running game to counteract the loss of his Pro Bowl tight end.

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (7-6): Despite being sacked a league-high 47 times, Ryan Tannehill has steadily improved and matched a career best with three touchdown passes last week versus the Steelers. Versatile tight end Charles Clay reeled in two to extend his team lead to seven in that department and has seven catches in each of the last two contests. Clay, who had five receptions against New England in the first meeting, has 678 yards receiving for the second-best total by a Miami tight end since Randy McMichael (791, 2004).

TRENDS:
* Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
* Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in Patriots last six vs. AFC East.

EXTRA POINTS:
1. Miami RB Lamar Miller cleared the league's concussion protocol and is line to play versus New England. Miller rolled up 89 yards on 18 carries in the teams' first meeting.

2. The Patriots have won seven straight against the Dolphins, but just seven of their last 13 meetings in South Beach under Belichick's watch.

3. Miami speedy WR Mike Wallace will likely be matched up with New England CB Aqib Talib, who is nursing a hip injury.